The Calm Before Something INTENSE Arrives...

Added: 2026-05-21

[00:00:00]It is Tuesday, May 19th, 2026, day 139 of the year.

[00:00:04]And right now, if you are standing somewhere in the central United States, somewhere like Kansas City, Des Moines, Springfield, maybe even Wichita, there's a decent chance that today feels just fine, comfortable.

[00:00:16]Maybe a little breezy, little cloudy, nothing too dramatic.

[00:00:19]And for a lot of you watching this right now, that is exactly what today is delivering.

[00:00:24]But here's the thing.

[00:00:25]That calm?

[00:00:27]That's not normal calm. That's the atmosphere holding its breath.

[00:00:30]And when it exhales, and it is going to exhale, what comes out is going to be intense on multiple levels and in multiple parts of the country all at the same time.

[00:00:39]We have got three completely different major weather stories running simultaneously right now. A historic early season heat wave shattering records across the entire East Coast today. A severe weather and flash flooding threat hammering the Central Plains and Midwest as we speak. And on top of all that, a new setup is already loading on the back side of this system for later this week across the Southern Plains. This is not a quiet week. This is not a calm pattern. Whatever little pocket of nice weather you might be sitting in today is a gap between events. And I want to make sure you understand what's on both sides of that gap. So, let's get into it. We have to start with the last several days because a lot has happened and we are not fully through it yet. This past weekend, starting on Saturday, May 16th and running through Sunday and into Monday, the Storm Prediction Center had enhanced risk areas, that's a level three out of five, covering parts of the Central Plains and into the Upper Midwest. And those setups delivered. Saturday brought severe storms with large to very large hail across parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa with hail reports at 3 in or larger in diameter. Wind gusts over 75 mph with some of the bowing storm complexes and isolated tornadoes.

[00:01:47]Then on Sunday, things cranked up even harder. A volatile environment developed across Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa. The Storm Prediction Center was specifically highlighting the risk for strong tornadoes, potentially EF2 or higher, across central and eastern Nebraska, including the Lincoln and Omaha metro areas. On the morning of Monday, May 18th, the NWS actually upgraded northeastern Kansas to a moderate risk.

[00:02:11]That is a level four out of five. That does not happen all the time. That tells you the confidence in a significant severe weather event was very high.

[00:02:18]Numerous thunderstorms from those setups have been ongoing into this morning across central and eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and southern Missouri. So, do not think this is fully over as you watch this video. That activity is still rolling through parts of the mid-south right now. And on top of the severe weather threat, the Weather Prediction Center issued a moderate risk of excessive rainfall for portions of Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas through last night.

[00:02:43]Flash flooding has been a real concern with all of this, and for good reason.

[00:02:47]Some of these areas picked up 3 to 5 inches of rain in a short window as training storms moved repeatedly over the same locations. That is the context.

[00:02:54]That is what this pattern has already been doing.

[00:02:56]And now, let me tell you what today looks like and where things go from here.

[00:03:00]So, here is the current situation as of today.

[00:03:04]The Storm Prediction Center is watching a slight risk, level two out of five, covering a quarter from the southern plains northeastward through the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the lower Great Lakes.

[00:03:15]Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon and evening hours today. And the primary threats are damaging winds and hail, but there is actually a more focused concern sitting over west central and north central Texas today.

[00:03:27]A shortwave trough is moving northeastward into the southern high plains. And it is running into some incredibly juicy air at the surface. We are talking about dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s across much of the southern plains right now.

[00:03:39]And ML Cape, that's a measure of atmospheric instability, is forecast to peak between 3,000 and 4,000 joules per kilogram in some of those areas this afternoon. That is a serious number.

[00:03:51]That is the kind of instability that produces violent explosive updrafts in thunderstorms.

[00:03:57]The greatest storm coverage today is going to be across west central and north central Texas where that low-level flow is maximized.

[00:04:03]Supercells are possible there this afternoon with large hail being the headline threat. Meanwhile, that cold front draped from the upper Midwest down through the southern plains is going to keep triggering storm development today along and ahead of it from parts of the Missouri Valley southeastward.

[00:04:19]The mid Mississippi Valley and lower Great Lakes are also in play for damaging winds as this front pushes through.

[00:04:25]If you are in central Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky today, keep an eye on the radar this afternoon.

[00:04:31]Storms can fire fast along this boundary. Okay, so while all of this severe weather and flooding drama has been unfolding in the center of the country, the East Coast has been getting absolutely cooked.

[00:04:41]And today, Tuesday, May 19th is the peak of it.

[00:04:45]Over 80 million people across the eastern United States are waking up today facing temperatures that are going to challenge all-time May records in multiple cities.

[00:04:54]We are not talking about a degree or two above normal.

[00:04:57]We are talking about a temperature swing of 30 to 60° in some locations compared to what they were seeing just a week ago. One week ago, large parts of the northeast were sitting in the 40s, well below seasonal averages.

[00:05:09]Today, those same cities are going to hit the 90s.

[00:05:12]AccuWeather described it as spring weather whiplash, and honestly, that is the most accurate term for it.

[00:05:17]Philadelphia is expected to reach 98° today. 98° in May?

[00:05:22]That would break its all-time May temperature record. Heat advisories are flying from Philadelphia northward through New York City, Providence, and all the way up to Boston. Washington, D.C. and Baltimore have been above 90° since Monday and are going to stay there through Wednesday.

[00:05:37]Cities like Raleigh, Huntington, Albany, and Hartford are all in play for daily record highs today.

[00:05:43]And here is why this early season heat wave is more dangerous than the same temperatures in August. Your body has not adapted yet. Your house has not been in air conditioning mode. A lot of people have not even turned on their AC units for the year yet. And this is the first major heat event of the season, which means health risks spike hard, particularly for elderly people, for young children, for people doing outdoor labor, and for anyone in older buildings without reliable cooling. The driving force behind all of this is a strong Bermuda high, a big dome of high pressure sitting over the western Atlantic that has been funneling warm southerly air up the entire East Coast for days. And that Bermuda high is not going anywhere until Wednesday night into Thursday, when the cold front finally sweeps through and pushes the heat back toward the Atlantic. If you are on the East Coast today, do not underestimate this. Stay hydrated. Limit your time outside during peak heating hours. Check on elderly neighbors and family members.

[00:06:35]And if you do not have air conditioning, find a cooling center. Most major cities have opened them up this week.

[00:06:41]This is a legitimate public health event happening right now.

[00:06:45]So, Wednesday, May 20th, is going to be the transition day on both fronts.

[00:06:49]For the East Coast, the cold front starts pushing through and dragging the heat away. That front is going to bring scattered strong to severe storms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon.

[00:06:59]We are looking at a risk for severe winds and hail with some of those storms. Nothing is dramatic as what's been happening in the plains, but enough that people in the DC to New York corridor need to be paying attention to the radar Wednesday afternoon. For the Central Plains and the Southern States, the pattern on Wednesday features that cold front now draped from the Northeast all the way down across the Southern Ohio Valley and into Southwestern Texas and Eastern New Mexico. Scattered storms are expected along it through the afternoon.

[00:07:25]The Storm Prediction Center's day 4 through 8 outlook, which was issued this morning, is already flagging what could be developing on Friday and into the weekend. And that brings me to the part of this forecast that I want you to really pay attention to.

[00:07:37]Here is where it gets interesting again.

[00:07:39]The atmosphere does not settle down after Wednesday, not a little bit. The SPC's day four through eight outlook, issued at 4:00 a.m. CDT this morning, is already flagging Friday as a day where severe storms are possible across the southern plains.

[00:07:53]Here is what's happening.

[00:07:54]After this current system clears out, a moist southerly return flow is going to begin cranking back across the southern and central plains going into the end of the week. Gulf moisture is going to surge northward again, and then a new shortwave trough, essentially a new disturbance in the jet stream, is going to approach from the west Friday, interacting with a dry line that is going to be draped somewhere across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandle region.

[00:08:16]Now, there is disagreement in the models right now about exactly where that dry line sits on Friday. Some guidance has it back in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandle. Other guidance has it further east, pushing into western Oklahoma.

[00:08:27]That difference matters for who is in the worst spot and how much organization the storm mode can achieve. But, what the models do agree on is this: By Friday afternoon, surface temperatures across the affected area are going to be warming into the mid-to-upper 80s. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are present. Inhibition is going to be very limited by the afternoon. If any convection initiates along or ahead of that dry line, it is going to have fuel to work with.

[00:08:50]Shear profiles for Friday look marginally sufficient to support a mix of multi-cell and super-cell storm modes. So, we are not looking at the same level of threat as what we saw over the weekend, at least not at this point.

[00:09:01]But, a severe storm potential absolutely exists on Friday across parts of Oklahoma and western into central Texas.

[00:09:08]This is one to watch as we get closer and model agreement improves. And then, looking at the weekend, the WPC's extended forecast is pointing toward multiple rounds of heavy rain and severe storms from the southern plains continuing through the deep south. They are specifically calling out east central Texas as a region where multiple mesoscale convective systems, big organized complexes of storms, will be developing and potentially affecting the same areas on multiple days. That is a significant flash flooding threat for the Texas Hill Country and surrounding areas. We are looking at 1 to 3 in of rainfall likely from San Antonio to Northeast Texas just on Thursday. With more rounds coming Friday and into the weekend. The Texas Hill Country has already dealt with devastating flooding events in recent years. When the forecast pattern is setting up for repeated heavy rain events hitting the same area over multiple days. That has to be taken seriously.

[00:09:56]Let me take a step back here because I think it is worth understanding the bigger atmospheric picture. So all of these individual pieces make sense together. What we're dealing with right now is a classic late spring pattern called an amplified upper level trough.

[00:10:09]Over the western United States paired with a strong ridge. That heat dome over the east. The trough is digging down out of the Rockies and the northern plains.

[00:10:17]And then lifting back out. Every time it lifts, it drags a cold front across the center of the country and sets off severe weather. Then the pattern reloads. And it has been doing this repeatedly over the past 2 weeks.

[00:10:29]The weather prediction centers extended forecast issued just yesterday. Is very clearly flagging that this falling frontal boundary with shortwave impulses aloft. Is going to continue fueling multiple thunderstorm complexes from Texas to the deep south. Through the end of this week. And into next. There is no clear signal for this pattern to break down and flatten out into something quieter. Until we get toward the very end of May. When the WPC suggests the trough will finally lift out. And the eastern ridge will get flattened. And layered on top of all of this is the bigger picture climate context. March 2026 was confirmed by NOAA as the hottest March ever recorded across the contiguous United States.

[00:11:05]The country just wrapped up its warmest 12-month stretch on record. And AccuWeather is forecasting that a developing El Nino. Potentially a strong or super El Nino. Is going to have a growing influence on the weather pattern through the rest of the summer and into 2027. The expectation is for above average severe weather from the plains to the Midwest and Ohio Valley in June and July. Above average flooding risk from Texas to the Ohio Valley. And intensifying drought in the northwest and northern California.

[00:11:31]The calm spells you're getting between these events are real, but they are short. And the events themselves are not mild. I do not want to just walk you through all of this without giving you something practical.

[00:11:41]Because depending on where you live, what you need to do right now is different. If you're on the East Coast today, Philadelphia, New York, Boston, DC, Baltimore, Raleigh, your priority is heat. Stay hydrated. Do not exercise outside during peak afternoon hours. If you have elderly family members or neighbors living alone, check on them today and tomorrow. Know where your nearest cooling center is. This heat peaks today and starts breaking by Wednesday night. But today and tomorrow are the dangerous days. If you are in the Central Plains or the Midwest, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Indiana, western Kentucky, you are in the active severe weather zone right now and through Wednesday.

[00:12:18]Keep your weather alerts on. Know where your shelter is.

[00:12:21]If you are going to be driving through the I-35 or I-70 corridors at all today or tomorrow, watch the radar before you go. Flash flooding is a real risk along these routes right now, not just severe storms.

[00:12:32]If you are in Texas and Oklahoma, particularly central and north Texas today, and then across western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle area going into Friday, keep watching this. The setup for today's storms in your area has real teeth with those 3,000 to 4,000 joules per kilogram of instability loading up.

[00:12:49]And then Friday wants to reload on you.

[00:12:51]Stay informed every single day this week. And for the Texas Hill Country, San Antonio northward to Austin and beyond, the flooding risk from repeated storm systems later this week is the story to watch. Make sure your emergency plan accounts for flash flooding specifically.

[00:13:05]Know which roads in your area flood first. Have a plan for what you do if those roads go under water, because some of them will.

[00:13:10]Here's what I want you to take from all of this today. The thing about a pattern like this one, a pattern with this much energy, this much moisture, this many competing boundaries and disturbances all running at the same time, is that it creates these pockets of apparent calm that feel like breaks in the action.

[00:13:27]And they are.

[00:13:28]But the action is not done. It is just pausing to reload. The East Coast heat wave peaks today and breaks by Thursday.

[00:13:33]The current Central Plains severe weather and flooding threat rolls through today and Wednesday. And then Friday and the weekend, the Southern Plains reloads and Texas and Oklahoma go back into the crosshairs. This is a relentless pattern and May is going out swinging hard. Stay with Planet Brief.

[00:13:48]We are going to keep you updated every step of the way as this week develops, as the Friday setup comes into sharper focus, and as those heavy rain events start stacking up across the Southern Plains.

[00:13:58]There is a lot to track and we are not going anywhere. Until next time, don't be scared. Be prepared.