U.S. Consumer Confidence Hits a 74-Year Low | 24 News HD

追加: 2026-05-07

[00:00:06]The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment had never fallen this far in its 74-year history.

[00:00:13]>> [music] >> Not in the 1970s oil shocks, not in the 2008 financial crisis, not even in the depths of COVID lockdowns. It plunged [music] 10.7% in 1 month from an already weak 53.3 and 8.8% from a year earlier.

[00:00:30]And the war delivered a visible, painful price [music] tag.

[00:00:35]Oil surged more than 30%. Gasoline cracked the psychologically toxic $4 a gallon barrier for the first [music] time in over 3 years. In open-ended comments, Americans directly blamed the war >> [music] >> for unfavorable changes to the economy.

[00:00:51]98% of the interviews were conducted before the April 7th ceasefire announcement. This was raw, first shock fear.

[00:01:01]History demands attention. Michigan survey has a 70% plus correlation [music] with real consumer spending, especially big-ticket durable goods.

[00:01:11]Readings this low have preceded [music] every US recession since the 1950s.

[00:01:17]Prolonged levels below 60 [music] have reliably produced negative GDP quarters.

[00:01:24]The wealth-spending through gloom pattern of 2024 to 2025 is now breaking.

[00:01:30]Affluent and stock-owning households are cutting back as well.

[00:01:35]Consumer spending is 68 to 70% [music] of US GDP. A sharp, war-driven pullback adds sudden demand destruction on top of supply shocks from energy prices.

[00:01:47]Recession probabilities are rising fast as well. The Federal Reserve is caught in a trap. Higher near-term inflation expectations [music] may block the rate cuts needed to cushion slowing growth.

[00:01:59]Two futures [music] now diverge. If the ceasefire continues to hold and energy prices [music] ease, sentiments could possibly rebound toward the mid-50s [music] by summer.

[00:02:11]But if high costs lock confidence in the 40s, spending will contract, job losses will rise, and a self-reinforcing [music] downward spiral could deliver negative GDP quarters and a genuine stagflation trap.

[00:02:26]46.6 is not just a number. It is the sound of economic confidence cracking under the weight of a war that is illegitimate, and the world has been put on notice.