Crypto markets follow predictable cycles where bear markets typically last about 140 days from bottom to pre-pump peak, followed by a 90-day crash phase. The end of a bear market can be predicted approximately 200 days after the initial crash, with Bitcoin potentially reaching a floor around $40,000. Lower token prices can actually make voting power and investment opportunities more attractive rather than less, as the cost of acquiring voting power decreases proportionally with price drops.
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Crypto Alpha Stream - BITCOIN - What Happens Next
Added:Hey guys, we are live on YouTube and X and it is Friday morning here. Good morning. I'm pretty sure for a lot of you will be Thursday evening.
I'll just wait for people to get in. Let me know the sound is all good in the chat. Going to send out some um reminders to people to join for the weekly stream. So, of course, we do this every week. We come live on YouTube. We talk about the entirety of the crypto and world markets and try to find some, you know, some plans for what to do to make money in the world. That's the guess. This is why this this entire channel exists. Hello, Brett Prince.
Welcome to the stream, Mr. Brett Prince.
So topic for the main topic for today's video is Bitcoin. What happens next? So of course nobody really knows what happens next with Bitcoin. I've been saying what I think is going to happen since October and unfortunately it's going exactly as I imagined to the day to the week which is pretty crazy. We have Mr. Random. We have Mr. Aaron Mr. Cryptoaron Shames from Topaz.
Welcome. Welcome. So, we're going to be talking about a bit about Bitcoin and then we're going to go through the entirety of what's happening in I guess my our little space in crypto and see how different projects are doing. First one of course I want to talk about is the market the Bitcoin and what's going on with that. So, today Bitcoin is $63,400.
We have seen a little bit of a pump over the last couple days probably related to world events. Um seems like Trump is continually I think he said now 25 times that they're close to a deal being finalized with uh Iran on the straight of Hormuz and then nothing happens. Then tensions flare up again. It's quite a coincidence that he said the for me this morning I read that he said that the deal is closer than ever before I think is what he did say or something similar to that. Um just as his World Cup and Mexico's World Cup. Yeah. Trump says deal to the Oh no. I'm looking at I don't know why I'm looking at BBC. I hate the BBC. They're really not nice guys. But um Trump says deal to end Iran wars close after calling off strikes.
And it's very strange that this is happens just as soon as he starts his own party with the World Cup. You know, come on Scotland.
Um definitely this this is a narrative politics and play and not actually any I don't think there's any close to the deal being um called off, the deal happening and the war being called off.
I I I can't see it actually. I think this is going to be a very long and arduous similar to Ukraine and Russia and it probably will not end anytime soon. This is just my opinion of course.
Let me know what you guys think about that. But in terms of then what what I care like because to be honest what happens in Iran or in Ukraine um I cannot we cannot change any of that.
There's nothing that we can do to affect this. Right. So all I could really concern myself with is what how will that affect what I'm holding, right? And for the Bitcoin price, this kind of comes to it's it's not going to help it. Of course, any kind of world turmoil is not going to help Bitcoin in a bare market.
There's definitely not. But what it's done in the recent kind of weeks, like last week we stalked like I still have this open. The same chart. This is the same chart from when we fell in I drew this out in October of last year, I think it was. Yeah, around about which would be around about here where Bitcoin started falling right from the all-time high. And it's just pretty much continuing to almost like this level here. It's not like I drew this this morning. This has existed since around about October, November last year. This one uh I drew out, but it was very mild support. It was broken completely through. I have down here bottom one of 40, which is probably my floor prediction. I think it might be a lot of people's floor predictions. There's a guy called Benjamin Cohen who always is quoted, I guess he can be described as a Bitcoin master. And what he says is, what is it? The bear and the bull make fools of everybody, right? And it's pretty true because if everyone is expecting $40,000 Bitcoin, then we're not going to get $40,000 Bitcoin, are we? It's not going to happen. But that could mean that we're going to get only $50,000 Bitcoin. Or it could mean we're going to get $20,000 Bitcoin. Could go either way. E both bulls and bears will be made fools essentially. And I do agree with that. And Bitcoin's going to do what Bitcoin's going to do. I like that saying as well because you just cannot control it. But it is just written in in it's written in history that it's just so strange that to the absolute week everything is just repeating itself. Like are we like living in some strange already written um narrative? You know what I mean? If we look at this, we can see the time that we've had from the pre-pump until the um the collapse was what's that? 90 days. Sorry to from the dump last dump to then the the bounce that we everyone was kind of expecting back up to 80,000. That was 90 days. And if we come to look at what happened last cycle, which would be over here just beside my head. Let me move that over.
Um then we have the same thing. We have the down to the pre uh the bottom that to the top of the pre- pump and that was 74 days. Might be give or take a few days because I'm quite zoomed out, right? And then of course we could say that it was this collapse here coming down which would be from uh here to all the way down here. And that is I can't see that.
Hang on one second. Come down to there. That is another 140 days. Right. So then if we come back out, we look. Okay. So we went from the bottom to the top to the bottom and we go 140 days from here. That brings us to 140 days to the bottom of my line.
Exactly. Strange that. Right.
So, this is why this line exists because I essentially just drew out the, you know, it's it's napkin maths essentially because like I say, I can't control what Bitcoin is going to do. None of us can.
You just have to sit back and relax.
Other people talk about buy zones and fair value. Um, I think any anywhere for Bitcoin now uh below the people say the 200E moving average, which is going to sit around just under $60,000 anyway.
anywhere around about this price point for Bitcoin which would be the um 50 55 56 57 is your interfair value for Bitcoin in my opinion. So even if you you start buying up you know we're getting very close to the the point where all these assets that you think are going to do really well in the next market. Of course Bitcoin Ethereum I'm not really going to fall for that again.
I fell for it last cycle. I bought up heavily for Ethereum for it to just basically go back to what it was last cycle. So, I'm looking to buy coins which go higher than they did in the cycle before. And I don't think that's Ethereum. But for your bitcoins, of course, the cycle will continue. Bitcoin isn't dead. Everything will be fine. We have B&B. Last cycle. B&B absolutely killed it and still looking to be honest really, really strong. Um, really strong in the bear as well. $65 for B&B. I'm not sure how far back this MEXI chart is going to go. How how far it goes back to 2021. That's perfect, right? So for B&B, it's sitting at the levels it was in 2024, right? It's already receded down to the 600 mark. I remember it sat in $600 for a very long time. Uh it was yeah almost two years sitting around about at $600. That was an excellent time because when B&B sits in the same price range for two years, yes, of course, it's not going up and down.
You're not getting amazing uh value from pumps, but you are getting consistent yield from holding the asset with, you know, for example, UST. And that's what a lot of people were doing in this time.
Then, of course, it rocketed and it showed incredible strength getting all the way up to what was the alltime high there, 1,300, right? So it doubled in in price essentially from the um 2020 what would that 2025 summer 2025 all the way up to just before the end of the the bare mark the bull market in October doubling in price right amazing pump and we have seen it's been repeating the Bitcoin pattern but it's showing very nice strength so B&B as well I think anywhere in the $500 range for B&B that's your buy time that's the time when you think start thinking okay may maybe it will continue to go down. But if you just continue to buy as it's dipping into the end stage of the bare market because we are absolutely getting to the last stage of the bare market and the last stage of the bare market is this big drop. So don't be scared of it. Don't worry about the big drop. It must happen. It needs to clean. The system needs to clean. The issues though that do give me a little bit of worry are just the absolute ghost town that cryptocurrency is these days.
I haven't seen it like this actually.
Like I like if people don't know me very well like from the history of what how when did I enter crypto? I entered crypto in 2020.
So, my first Bitcoin that I bought was round about, let me find it, be 2020. It was early 2020. Before this, the first Bitcoin I bought, I think, was when it was around about $5,000, right? Uh just before I bought, no, the first one I bought was before the COVID crash. And then I bought more during the COVID crash. And that's when I I saw like incredible excitement during the the co times because everyone was locked up. Everyone was at home. Uh people were trying to find new ways to get passive income. And of course during that time during the the old rona then it was a lot of people were online and trying to find ways to make money and gamble and the whole idea of smart contracts for Ethereum. The Binance smart chain had just come out. was a really incredibly exciting time to be investing into a new uh narrative, a new idea of how money can be made, right? And the the chart showed that by absolutely going rocketing, not just for Bitcoin, but also the altcoins really did have an altcoin run. Altcoin runs do exist.
Maybe if you'd only been investing in crypto for two years or three years, you don't you haven't really seen that, but they do exist. There were weeks weeks during the 2021 2022 cycle time when you saw continued growth on assets just completely smashing all-time high after that smashing alltime high and this had to come to an end of course and in 2021 it started to fall and finally we floored and it was a brutal fall right like here I have $15 Sena that's like Salena going to $15. Can you imagine that now? I can I can imagine it happening. Right, Salena? Right.
Never never underestimate how brutal a bare market can be, but also never underestimate how short the true end of a bare market can be because the end of a bare market is soul destroying. You open up your portfolio one morning and what you remember of even from a small pump like for example here you have Salena going to uh 80 $90, right? And then one day, say if you're a big Salena holder that you're going to go to your wallet during this bare market, you're going to open it and you're going to see that you have $25 per Salena. You know, your your portfolio is going to be down 60%. And this, in my opinion, still hasn't happened yet. Although things are down bad, they're not down bad enough.
And what I am looking forward to, of course, is that I know that this period of flooring doesn't last forever. We see here, I remember this day, $8 Salena. $8 $8 Salena and then bull market just a couple year like a year and a bit later.
$272 Sena. If you'd have just taken your entire market, like market value, everything in your bank, just dumped it into Salena, right on the uh what's that 30th or the 1st of January in 2023. And then all you did was just sat there and waited for that $8 Salena to mature into $261 Salena within two years. You know, this is incredible opportunities which open up in absolute fear and horrible panic, right? And that hasn't happened yet. It happened of course in October when, you know, all of our gains disappeared. But now people are getting into the okay, now I'm in debt. Uh now I can't even find a winner. Now everything that I buy seems to go down, right? it it continues until it doesn't anymore.
And if we're looking at that that so we will be roughly around about here at the moment, right? This is where we are.
Same. Okay. Pretty much the same. And it just leaves. We're almost there. We're almost there. Right. So if we go from here to here, that is what's that? One year, right? So knock it on your calendar. You have one year until we start to really make big moves again. Uh moving up. And that is one year for you to really make massive massive choices with your life on which assets do you think are going to run in the next bull.
And there will be another bull. There's always going to be another bull. We don't know which coins are going to do well. In the cycle last this current cycle which is now ending, we all expected that the same coins were going to run, right? But they didn't. Yeah. A lot of the coins that we thought were going to run. Let's get go to Coin Gecko, right? They didn't run at all and a lot of people got kind of disappointed by that. I got absolutely wrecked.
Coins which I heavily bought last cycle.
Phantom.
Um, if it's still here, Phantom. Oh, Phantom. So, during the entire bare market of the last bare market, I continued to buy this. So, my history with Phantom is I I grabbed it 2021.
What was it like 10 cents? Something like that. Rocketed to the to $2.
Amazing amazing uh returns. But then it crashed and it crashed all the way down to 25 cents. And I was buying this around 25 cents for over a year, right?
Almost two years. I was buying it. I was buying it. I was buying it. It went to 20 cents. It went back up to a dollar.
It went all the way down to uh 29 cents again. Then it went all the way above a dollar. And that was the last teraf phantom. This was when they migrated and it collapsed. And now it's at a lower price than it ever has been.
Not ever has been, but pretty much since since people have known that they existed, it's at a lower price. And I thought that Phantom had the technology and it had the the the team to to bring it to great things. And what's held Phantom back? This is a good question.
Phantom was held back because they put all their eggs into moving to uh Sonic, right? So they m they rebranded, they made a brand new chain faster. They said it was the fastest chain in crypto, also EVM. They said that it was going to bring a whole new market of people in into um into Phantom and Sonic. But the foundation, in my opinion, were pretty crooked and they just drained it. They gave too many ambassadors, people in the community, too much power and too many of the coins and they also just destroyed it. They didn't get any really strong products and backed them and they didn't back them very well and they got obliterated by other chains, right, that did very well. We come back to B&B, right? And why did B&B continue to pump?
What is it about B&B that just keeps making more and more gains? And it's because they're tied to an exchange, right? They're tied to an exchange. They have a use case. It's a utility coin and it's got its own its own blockchain as well. It's a monster of a coin. And like I have a friend Dave, right? My old friend Dave. I went to university with him actually. He's one of the first people who introduced me to crypto. And he told me, you know, he got into BMB, I think, when it was around about $30 or $40 around about this this point here.
and he's still holding a lot of the BMBB that he purchased at such cheap prices because he just sees the value of the strength of the chart and the fact that it continues to power through. um these so you it's very hard to decide you know like for example I talk about SUI a lot right and SUI is at the moment doing similar to what Phantom did in the last cycle right to be honest price-wise not in terms of what they're shipping so rocketed right all the way from people were buying it at 40 and it rocketed all the way to $5 uh just round about the just before Weo started sui trump in October uh when sui was $1 or $2 then we went all the way up to $5. It was very it was shortly lived and then we we um came back down quite normally which is healthy right but since then sui has been doing exactly what phantom did last bare market is collapsing and collapsing going down said many times my buy zone for a sui is 60 cents which is where I am very interested in uh purchasing more sooie I just hope that I don't do the same thing that I did with phantom whereas I continue to buy continue to buy I mean at one point I'd boughten so much Phantom that I thought if phantom goes back all-time high. I'm a multi-millionaire, right? But it never did. I just lost money, right? So, you you can go the wrong direction with these things. Why don't I think that will happen to Suie? Because Suie isn't rebranding. Their their vision continues to build on what they already have, and what they already have is fantastic. I I enjoy building and coding on Suie. I like the possibilities that are endless.
They're continually shipping new and amazing um like advancements to the Sooie infrastructure. They're about to put out they just put out gasless stable coin payments which does happen now.
When you send stable coins on Sui it's free. Um they are almost ready to release their privacy layer which would be great because it means that you can make transactions on Sui without anyone knowing what you're doing right which I I would personally like that the way the world's going. They have this fantastic object model for their NFTs which means they're always being able to change and morphed. They like there's so many things that they continue to build on, but some people say Sooie is for the eggheheads and not for the gym bros, right? Which is a big problem. Salena's for the gym bros, right?
Um, so I'll continue to buy Sooie and I think Bitcoin and B&B, probably Salena, they would be the the big ones to go for. But a bunch of comments, good to see. I can't Brett Prince says, "Can't forgive B&B because of 1010 2025." Yeah, but that's not the coin. That's just the the exchange and that was to do also with how they were dealing with these uh liquid staked asset stable coins and all that. It was all a big mess. It had to happen. This happens every single market. There has to be some part point where things get too big and they break. People are overleveraged. They don't actually have the money to cover what is happening.
You don't like another thing that broke Phantom was they were double counting which is normal on chains right for example if for if a transaction goes through on Satus but also brid uh aggregates through blue fin or even from sooidex each exchange counts that as their own um trade and now it's better because now they can separate this and really see what's happening but beforehand what phantom were doing they were just double counting everything um any any coins coming into Phantom, they double counted it. So if someone sent in $1, actually they're going to show $2, right? There was all sorts of things that were wrong. And then people were borrowing with the idea that this money actually existed, but it did not exist.
So lots of lots of errors in the ways.
Uh why is Degenerate and running an errand? I have some updates I can mention, some important updates about Sooie. Okay. Uh I have some updates about Suie and he's also he's running a lot. He's a busy boy. Same. Phantom and Sonic crushed me. Yeah, welcome boss. I remember we went into so many projects in Sonic uh on Phantom during that time and yeah none of them none of them uh bro to be honest. Um what do you think has held Fountain back? Yeah, I answered that one. Privacy coins did great. XMR and Zcash. So they did good at the end of the run which always happens at the end of a bull market but during the run the Monero was very flat. So during the bull market coming all the way up to October 2025, Monero basically had done nothing, right? It had gone from last bull market at $260. It floored during the entirety of the bull market down to $150. And at the end of the bull market, it started to rally. So it's done great in the bare market. It hasn't done great in bull markets. So now is the time to take your profit on Monero, not in the bull market, which is coming. In the bull market, usually privacy coins go down in value. Uh, so that's an important thing to to well, I'm saying that it's my opinion. You might disagree with me, which is fine, but that's so now would be a time to sell Monero in my opinion. Also, gas stable coin transfer is live already. Richie, I hope you're doing well. Quick question, what got you into crypto initially and what were you doing before crypto? So, I still do a lot of stuff. Um before crypto I was living in China with my kid and my wife and I was running a bar called Shipyard Bar and I was also teaching in a university teaching a critical thinking at USC. So I was a lecturer for critical thinking and a little bit of business English as well.
Then after crypto, it enabled me, well after the the last bull run, it enabled me to stop my university teaching career, I guess. And then I opened up a second business which is now the only business which is a sports bar in China.
And recently I've opened up an export company as well, which I just got all the qualifications for and I've just made the website actually. So that's cool. So I'm uh working on that at the moment. Uh it's a consumer goods cross category verified at source albian exports. So um this is a new business that I've just started. I'm using um a lot of AI tools to create it as fast as possible. But all the banking stuff in China is taking a long time.
So before crypto I was just a normal guy. Um no I wouldn't say you know that's why I'm not a financial adviser.
I didn't study accounting. I didn't study stocks. I just studied people in bars. um and marketing I guess through trying to sell people food, beer, beverages, a lot of uh food festivals, craft beer festival. Craft beer was really big back then. Um so doing a lot of that as well. Walrus protocol has memoir. Yep, I've been using that. It is a memory layer for your agents, which is very useful. And AI agents are not going anywhere. Agents are going to be the biggest users of the sweet network. No gym bros or nurse required. You always need gym bros. No gym bros, no pump.
It's plain. No Jim Bros, no pump. Um, so and also we have of course Zcash, which uh is quite an interesting story. But Zcash did the same thing, right? Privacy coin very quiet in the bull market. Very quiet. Look at that. Look at that in the bull market. What's happening there?
Absolutely nothing. It last time someone I heard about I didn't hear about Zcash for ages, right? And I was in my I always know when it's time to sell anything because someone will come into my my business and they'll have a beer.
When people drink, they start talking more, right? And then they tell tell about, you know, what they're doing.
People don't really want to talk about their finance when they're sober, but once they have a couple drinks, they start talking about it. And that's when I remember that this Chinese guy was like, "Zcash is going to be going to $10,000. It's unbelievably bullish."
Right? This was in 2021 when it was around about $200. Of course, it crushed all the way down to $22. And the entirety of the bull market sat at $20, $40, $20, $30, right? Until, that's right, November 11, 2025, October 10th, 2025. When the end of the bare of the bull market happened, Zcash also ran.
So, privacy coins historically don't run in bull markets, they run in bare markets. So again, if you're holding Zcash, your time to sell was well is kind of like now. If you're already up, it might go up longer. We have, like I said, we have another 6 months to a year of the bare market. My expectation to finish this uh topic would be when do I expect the bare market to end? I did say that. So I'm going to give a prediction for when I think the bare market is going to end. I think the we will see the end of the bare market which if we go back to Mexi have to make it a bit clear um it's the end of the bare market will be when we fully floored and we're just sitting there doing absolutely nothing right which would be back to this chart here right from last cycle oh what's happened um if you can see this it's all too a little bit too high too low uh which would be this stage here. So, like we said, the Salena one lasted one year.
Uh, the Bitcoin one lasted 62 days, 65 days, right? Much shorter.
Way shorter, right? So, if we're coming into this stage, we need to see this final drop. We are here. So, if we follow the chart, we just follow history, then the end of the bare market will be in 200 days.
Right. Give give or take 200 days which would be Q4 or Q1 Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 is when I think the end will happen and that means that prices stop bleeding and Bitcoin becomes a a growing value asset once more. But let me know what do you guys think are what are your predictions for the end of the bare market? What's your bottom price? So, I I would say I've drawn a line at 40 because that's strategically where it would go if we just follow the cycle. I think this time it's going to go lower than 40. So, I'm think we we might see 35 or maybe $30,000 Bitcoin in a flash crash, which won't last very long. As we can see here, it only lasted two months, right?
So, we might see that, but the average fall price will sit around about 40,000, I think, for the the end of the bare market. And from here to there, then we don't have too long to wait.
Q4 Q1.
All good. So, we're almost there. It's almost there.
Borex Shark. Yeah. La called last bought him perfectly. Whatever happened to the guy? Borax Shark. Uh I left his DAO quite a while ago cuz nothing he just vanished. He wasn't there. Um he was trying to make a tool which could automate uh concentrate liquidity and he never released it and that was that. And then he closed down the animal farm. And of course, we know what happened to Drip. So, I'm not sure. Not sure.
I use Claude Code. I'm a Mac Mini user.
That's correct. How do you know that?
Okay. So, that's the the market talk.
Let's get into other stuff I want to talk about. So, this is pretty fun. So, you might notice I'm wearing my um Scotland Scotland shirt. Yes. Because the World Cup has began. And talking about Claude Code. So, I got a message from a fellow Suieex community member called Mark. And Mark messaged me with a basic idea and contract for a prediction game. And I thought, okay, I'll have a look at it. He had a simple website up as well. Had a look at it. Thought, oh, that's actually a good idea. This was about 4 days ago. And I thought, okay, I think I can take this idea and we can make a start. because I've been wanting to make prediction markets for suede for a long time, but sometimes you just get distracted with doing other things, right? So, I said, "Okay, let's go for it. Let's make the prediction market."
So, it's live. It launched uh two days ago and now the World Cup has started.
The competition is running. I'm going to show you what's happening. So I'm happy to say that from the contract work that I did this uh I used a lot of skillbased uh a AI agents essentially to draw out what I thought was a very fair system for um running a prediction market as I see this as beta right something that's safe uh easy to use and cheap right cheap for people to invest into to try it out and see if they enjoy prediction right I didn't want to go I wanted also the user experience to be really smooth. So that's what we have.
The way it works. So the competition has started already. We got 23 players into the World Cup. You can find this at predict.sooidex.org.
So 23 players have entered. Each player enters 10 sooie. So the prize pool now is 207 sui to the top 10 uh point scorers during the entire competition.
So I wanted to do this. I want to stress test it a a lot. Right? So the ten sui gets you entry to predict every single game in the world cup and score points at the end of the world cup your points will matter because of course the top 10% of points scorers get the prize pool okay so there's 27 suite at the moment to win anyone can join once you join what happens so before the world cup started people did have the option to choose the winner of the world cup for bonus points. So, if you did get in, the 23 players who got in before the start of the World Cup, congratulations. If you correctly pick the winner now, you will get a a bonus of 32 points, right?
It's in the group stages, it's one point per win. The group stages is 72 matches.
So, it's a huge bonus for people who were watching and coming early. I always like to reward people who come early.
So, now if you correctly pick the World Cup winner, you get 32 points. And I've just added Sue ENS to the leaderboard because I love adding Sue ENS. It's great fun. So we can see some people got the results. We can come to the live schedule. The games are coming in on the API. So this is a backend API which runs autonomously and everything just happens. It just works, right? I love it. I love agents.
So Mexico beat South Africa 2-nil, which means that Mexico got one point. Uh, meaning that all of these wallets who correctly picked Mexico got one point.
So, we can see crypto mischief. Suie is at the top because I entered first.
Uh, Suie Trump Sui entered as well.
Sunonny Suie also got one point. We have Brett Prince got one point. We have Richie by name. We have Krypto uh Def Belg. Krypto Delbel.
Def Norway, but he picked Spain, so maybe he's Spanish. Walking boss Suie Bernard Suie Crypto Arborous picked also the uh Mexico and we have any other Berlin Brew uh he also got one point Artemis didn't get a point and the other ones don't have SUNS at the moment so we can't see who they are but that's that's the fun of it right so if you have SUNS you can now show your prediction prowess right on the game we can see also anyone who wants to join now you can still enter it's 10 to enter right but you don't get to choose the winner because that would be unfair because the competition is now running, right? So, I picked Spain and France with my two accounts. We have Sunny Sui went for France. We have some Portugal picks. Brazil, Argentina, England. Come on, man. No, no, no. Not England. Is it coming home? Is it Is it coming home?
I have to do that for my dad. I apologize.
U My dad is a very traditional Scottish man. Uh I have childhood memories for me cuz I I run a sports pub, right? So I'm happy whatever customer comes in, whatever country they support, I'm happy if they win, right? And I'm I console them if they lose no matter the country.
Not even England, right? But uh with my dad, I have childhood memories of my dad running around the house in his pants.
Oh, fantastic. That's brilliant.
Sometimes when England have lost in compositions, bit embarrassing, but anyway have Germany, Portugal. So all of these people got to pick their winner. They will not all get 32 points. Maybe there'll be a surprise winner. So, 32 points only goes to those who correctly choose the winner. If you want to enter though, you come here to the game. Um, let me send Tensui into a wallet so I can join with another account. I'll show you exactly how it works and what you can do. Um, so I'll send to this account. I think I have Tensui in here.
Bear with me, please. Just doing a little bit of uh Yes, I do. Okay. So we'll connect to this wallet.
So you just press connect. Then we come to this wallet. Okay. Perfect. Okay. So to enter the World Cup, you come here to pay tensi to enter. Like I said, the uh chance to pick the winner doesn't exist.
So you come in, you press enter, and you approve. That's your tensoo into the competition. This is your only buy in.
You don't need to buy for every game pick. It's 10 sui for the entire competition. It's what I quite like about this. It's you're not going to you're gambling a little bit of money to get the opportunity to to win quite a lot of money. And now your group stage picks have popped up. So you already missed the live schedule for the first game because it's already called. So you can't of course uh pick for a game that's already finished. That would be unbelievably bad. So this game you cannot pick. But today we have one more game, South Korea versus Czech Republic.
So you come in, you still have that starts in half an hour. The time for the stages for the games will uh hopefully they should be aligned to your world zone that your computer is set up in.
You can see for me the games are atrocious. Midnight, 1:00 in the morning, 4:00 in the morning, 7:00 in the morning, 10 in the morning, midnight, 3:00 in the morning, 6:00 in the morning. Just not not good fun. So, I I want to pick this because it starts in uh 30 minutes, right? So, I'll come.
It's South Korea versus Czech Republic.
On this account, I'm going to go for a draw. Okay. So, I pick draw. I can choose as me. These are all group stage games. So, I can choose all of the results if I want to or I can do them day by day. I'll do two. We'll go for Canada. Of course, Canada are going to beat them. And USA Paraguay. We go for a USA win because they're on home ground.
And we'll go for Switzerland. That sounds like a draw. Brazil. Morocco. I think probably I'll go Morocco with this account. You know, why not get an upset, right? Then we'll come down. That's five of my predictions fired into the game that will then log on on chain.
Everything is on chain and you see your object is changing. So your your you when you enter you get an object and the object morphs as you make your different decisions. Um later for building on this I'll I'll explain what else we can do.
So that's your first five predictions submitted. They'll soon uh populate and then you'll be able to pick the other predictions in time. Um I think it takes like one minute. If you understand it more, you can press on the guide and then see what's happening. If you want to see the standings for the group stages, you can come here, check what's going on. So, Mexico are three points so far because no one else has played. And that's it. So then you come come back and you can start choosing other games and what you want to do. I think I need to refresh that my Yeah. So now once after refresh I now have different games. Hayiti Scotland.
That's right. I'm looking forward to that one. Hopefully we we smash it. So I'll just, you know, Scotland are obviously going to win a lot. I'm not jinxing myself at all. So that's the prediction game. So what is my plan for the larger picture for this? Of course, 25 players into a prediction game isn't going to change the world, but this is I see this as a very quickly made contract uh on a time schedule because I wanted to get it launched of course before the World Cup begins. But what can we build on top of this? There are many things after building it and running the UI. I think the UI experience is better than poly market in my opinion. And so UI experience always first. That's what I like to um build. And then in terms of what can we build on top of this, it is endless, right? The first idea that came to mind is if we open up prediction markets for other things, I think starting with sports is probably the best idea because it's easy to verify with uh there are so many sports APIs that you can buy and then they just give you the results feed to you and it's trustless, right? terms of polyarket where you vote on other things. Uh will Jesus come back? Is the Iran war going to end on this day? These kind of things they need to be verified in a very different way which would take quite a big structure build which I am up for doing. But for first I want to start with sports and elections. These kind of things and then we can start to build on it. But I want to try and work the prediction idea into the ecosystem. And I like the idea of having leaderboards for big payouts as opposed to singlechoice results on things happening, right? So it would be kind of like a seasonal thing. So we could have seasons uh one month of predictions of lots of things happening and then at the end of maybe two weeks people maybe don't like one month. Then at the end of the twoe period the leaderboard is populated and the payouts are paid out, right? And the way I want to build on this is by using X victory. So X victory is our staked victory. You stake it into the smart contract and that then gets you X victory. The X victory is held for the amount of time that you you put it in for. So we have two year 19 weeks because this goes down from the three-year launch, right? We have a one-year stake. We have three three month and we have 7 day. So what I'll do is if someone stakes their victory for I think one year or two years 19 weeks as this goes down or long plan we can say then this gets you either cheaper entry into the prediction uh game or points boost during the prediction game. So the more X victory you lock up the better chance you have of winning the prediction game. So it's kind of like a loyalty boost for the prediction market.
I think that's where I want to go with it. I think that'd be a really fun way to encourage people to lock up Victory, which is great for the price performance of Victory, and then buy Victory to get different perks. Other things I want to do, I want to make your identity in the prediction game and onchain NFT so that you can show your past results and your history um on the markets. You can then, you know, hold that as prowess that you've won or you've lost. And the other thing that's important for this is so the sooie from this prize pool so for the creation of it because it wasn't my initial idea I told uh Mark who gave me the idea and he gave me a base contract which I then built on right his one only had pick the winner of the world cup so I added a pick every single game uh win lose draw group stages penalties all these things right as the competition continues and I built um a more I guess a more complicated system on top of it but because I wouldn't have done it if he hadn't messaged me and said I I made this then I said okay I will give you 10% of the prize pool for this right so personally I'm taking nothing from this zero right uh 10% is going to mark for this so he gets 10% of the sooie sent in so that is a way of saying thank you to him for the idea and then this sooie from the prize pool however much it is by the end of the competition all of this will be used to buy victory and victory will be sent to the winners so it adds buy pressure to victory But then of course the victory from the competition will go to people they can maybe sell it back down or if they want to or they could consider staking it or farming with it right for the next build for this which I'll be doing while this competition is running. I want the suie deposited into the prediction market. I want to take take a percentage of that and I want it to buy victory and I want to lock the victory. I'm not interested really in burning victory because I don't see the benefit of just burning it when we could just lock it and hold it in the treasury without ever ever selling it. But holding it, holding a a larger supply than anyone else, I think is more bullish than burning it in my opinion. I've tried, we've been doing the sui trump by burn for a long time, right? And it's good because it adds buy pressure, but the burning isn't having the uh expected effect that I thought it would have. you know, it's it's lowering supply. But if I'd have just bought all that sui trump and held it in a treasury wallet that's never selling, then at the same time, isn't that also bullish?
There's a massive friendly whale which uh holds a large supply like a Michael Sailor kind of idea, right? But never selling is important thing. So I think for Victory, I'm going to take a different approach to that. I've already started buying up quite a lot of Victory. um the last 3 days, 4 days since I saw a dump, big dump in the victory price. I think I've spent about $900 buying up victory so far. This will continue. I don't want to announce it in any kind of way because I don't want any expectation from people in a bare market um for this yet. So, it's definitely just something I'm working on. You have to trust the developer at the end of the day. So, you got to trust that I'm going to uh do the right thing and I will. So, I think adding buy pressure to victory coin through prediction is a great way.
And I think adding perks to X victory stakers through the prediction game is a great way too. And adding different events and polit political voting, trying to find things that have solid APIs that aren't um dis like strange things that are hard to verify at first because that takes another layer of verification. I would need to have verifiers, right? kind of like running nodes which is quite complex you know if I say oh uh it's going to rain tomorrow right who decides it rained the like who who will decide on that day it rained or not uh you'd need verifiers you can't just have one you probably need five 10 different agreeing verifiers to agree that this actually happened so that takes it's a much more complex build so that I would like to make that but let's see let's see how far this goes uh other things on sidex are pools are pooling going to move on to other topics uh in one minute. Just mention the SUSDC pool still doing very well. We have the US the stable coin pool is growing actually from last week. I think it was about 8,000. It's doubled in TVL. It's now up to 14,000 which is great to see. And the volume still we need it a lot thicker.
We need to get the stable coin pool up to around about I would say 50k before we can start picking up big volume on it. You can see the SUI USDC pool today, $50,000 um dollars of volume. It's hit as high as $200,000 of volume um a couple days ago. That's only with 25K.
So, the bigger we get the these uh blue chip pools, the much higher you're going to see trading volume on them, which is great. This can be shown with the Walrus pool, right? So, I incentivized this with um quite nice victory rewards and it's actually making way more uh as well in fees. We can see from only $2,000 of Sooie and Walrus, we're doing 2,000 daily in fees. So, as this continues to scale as well, we will see that growing as well. So, these are the three based the three best feebased pools. Bitcoin also doing quite well, but the fee is very low um at the moment. So, Suie Wal, Bitcoin USDT, uh USDC, uh USDC, USD SUI, that's their own stable coin. And then we have SUSDC. These are really good pools for the ecosystem. And then you need to trust me that I'm I'm building things for Victory to bring more buy pressure to Victory. We can continue to add liquidity uh to it of course which is great for uh Victory as a token but ultimately buy pressure is what will be the turnaround for Victory Coin in my opinion. Right. So let's move on to other projects. Which one do you want to talk about? We today we're going to talk about Suie Dex. We are going No, we've talked about SUEX. We're going to talk about Topaz. We're going to talk about Oram and what they've been up to. We're going to talk about Kai because I have some pretty good news on Kai. Um Kai is a pre-sale which is currently running.
And we can also talk about is that is that all there is in crypto now? There must be other things to invest in. Maybe you guys can give me some some new picks of things to choose.
I remember when I used to do Shitcoins of the week, which is like an old show.
I had like 50 projects. I'm in all at the same time.
Have I executed rebalancing function on the V3 pools? Not yet. Uh that was the plan, but then I got distracted and started making the prediction game. So also I I do want to make rebalance. Uh rebalance you got to be really careful with because people sometimes don't read their transaction before rebalance and they can can actually lose. So, I have to be really careful with making sure that if, for example, the um the swap on the rebalance is going to affect the wallet holder by a very high percentage.
Say you had like $10,000 and you want to rebalance it. You press rebalance and you don't pay attention. You just click okay, do it. I'm I'm busy. Do it. Do it.
Do it. But on the um allowance, it says, "Oh, by the way, your $10,000 is going to hit slippage on this route and you're going to be you're going to get 5% slippage." you rebalance then you realize hang on a minute I'm way down on my my value now what just happened right and that can never be recovered so what I have a rebalance working on my local machine but I don't want to launch it yet because I'm still testing it needs to always be sure it chooses the correct route for example if suedex can't handle it'll choose sus uh if sus can't handle it then what right it has to tell you no rebalance do it yourself right it can't just do it anyway um so it's very important to get it working really smoothly in case of uh user loss definitely or another idea would be if it can't rebalance all of it rebalances some of it right and then says sorry I could only rebalance this much so it's because definitely on sooie the um issue on sui that I found recently is that of course it's bare market but the TVL on sui is um struggling as well like overall you can see it's uh continuing to dip this uh TVL situation on SUI, the lower TVL means of course lower volume, lower trading, which then means lower liquidity, which means that roots, big thick roots for like heavy whales to trade in become less uh and less possible. Um you compare three total value lock 435 million um all-time high 2 billion, right? So it's 75% down on its uh uh TVL in less than a year, right? So it's very bad situation. So it have to be very careful how you build things so that you have safety involved.
Take a BSC 5 billion, right? Um it was at 9 billion. So it's come down 50%. So of course it's come down as well, but it's not as bad. Um DEX 5 bonds and AG from AG and his team. Yeah, we can talk about Dex bonds. Let's talk about Topaz first because I I do like do like my Topaz. So Topaz is chugging along. Like it's it's quite nice. Like I had a really nice experience with and voting Topaz this um this week because I really went heavy into the uh AI agent to try and find the the best uh ways. And the voting this week was fun because there were fees involved as well.
So, because it's a new deck, the last couple times we voted, the fees have been quite small um because it's just getting churning, right? It works retrospectively. Uh I think it's always two weeks behind what actually you're you're seeing in fees, right? So this week the fees were substantial actually for some of these pools which really made the the voting more interesting because I think it was BMBB USDT and the USDT Bitcoin pools had very nice fees um to pay out as well. They also get Topaz rewards. So with the inclusion of the Topaz rewards and the fees, it really made attractive APRs for voting into Topaz. But then you have other ones which had lower amount of trading uh fees because some of the percentage on the fee pools are quite low to try and incentivize more people to trade on them, right? But then more incentivized Topaz rewards and they also had uh different amounts of people voting into those as well with the Topaz. So, you had a nice little breakdown of people going for the high fee pools, which of course would give them solid solid assets because if you vote into the USDT rap pool, for example, then you're going to get USDT, you're going to get Rap BNB, and you're going to get Topaz, right?
If you vote into other pools which have low trading volume, for example, the stable coin pool, then you're you're going to get Topaz because it's it's they want people to vote for it. So, they give Topaz rewards, but then you're going to get very small amounts of USDT and USDC. So, it was a different kind of strategy uh this week on what do I want?
Do I want to vote for the blue chip coins? Do I want USDT, Bitcoin, BMBB? Do I want ETH in rewards or do I want to get more Topaz to then lock it, get the lock bonus and increase my exposure to Topaz through that way. So, it was very very uh confusing to make the decision which is where their AI agent came in came up roses, right? It was really great. So, if I come into my Claude code session with Topaz. So, I I was just chatting back and forth, right? Um, and it was quite useful. Very useful. The because it's on Claude, the the Claude uh response is always a bit of an as well, which is great because it just gets straight to the point. So, it was telling me, for example, uh to go into volatile pools at first, right? And I was saying, why would I go in volatile pools? And then, you know, it made a mistake. You're right. I made a bad error. So, although the agent is really smart, it is not perfect. Okay? it can make mistakes and you need to understand also what you're voting for. You can't just vote blindly with with this. Right?
So, you're right. I made a bad error. I watched the I match the V3 polls to the V2, right? That means when you're voting, right, you're going to see concentrated pools. Let me zoom in.
You're going to see concentrate pools.
You're also going to see the um basic volatile. So, this would be V2 structure pools, right? So B basic volatile are full range 50/50 range always and they are so this is 0.15% fee on this. So this is going to capture some trading because it's a nice low fee and the TVL is very big. It's got $24,000 in that TVL, right? So it is good for the ecosystem, but you're not going to see as high fees as the USDT constrate pool which did $3,000 in fees, right? So, it's going to do way more. And the Topaz rewards, I think this one was incentivized with Topaz. I'm not sure if the other one was. It might have been as well. I didn't notice. I can't remember.
But the fees it's earning were much lower because it is basic volatile, right? $200 of fees compared to $3,000 of fees, right? So, this is what uh you need to understand mostly about the voting to check that. So, it gave me another idea. It said, "Okay, so if you go into Genius B&B, UBUSDT, so these I would call We all like a though, right? A shitcoin. Um, because UB is a is a memecoin, I think. And Genius, I'm not sure what it was. It's a brand new token. We don't really know what it is, right? Large market cap, huge trading volume, but it's going to be very volatile." So then we have USDT, RAB BNB, USDT with Bitcoin, and RABNB Topass. I thought, "Okay, these look good." But then again, it said my fees are going to be astronomical. It said I was going to get $500 of fees or something, right? And I then said, "Uh, that's wrong because I don't have that much." He made a mistake again. Um, you I said here, "You want me to go in hard on Come on, fair point. You're right. The reason Genius Rat B&B was a high share in the same reason is the same reason it's a Nobody wants to vote there, which is not true either, right? So AI can really hallucinate if you're not prompting it properly. If you give it a short prompt like I gave it there, so you want me to go in hard and Come on. Then of course it's going to hallucinate. You need to be really exact and you also need to tell it to be critical of what you're saying, not just uh I am God and I'm always right.
Because here it says fair point. You're right. I'm not right. I'm never right.
Um I'm it's just an opinion when it comes to voting. There's no right decision on what's right or wrong for for voting into these things, right? So definitely you need to continue to uh bother the agent. Uh keep saving your memory with the discussions you've had before so that you can can uh keep remembering who you are, what your investment uh mindset is, and what your aims are so that it it doesn't keep forgetting, right? Um past context or hallucinating new things. It's very important. You can't just punch in uh you know go to go to you could go to Topaz then go home and then get the agent paste the GitHub into your um codeex or cloud code and then say who do I vote for? I have this many beauty topaz right you could do that and it will tell you something but better way is to continue to push it save your conversation and grow your conversation with the agent over time it's really going to understand what your exposure to topaz how much you have in v topaz and what pools historically having paying out better for your market share of v topaz definitely so that's very important um topaz AI wallet is doing its thing it's great so I come in today uh We are 10 in range. Claimable $3. So, claim my topaz. Right. This one you can just chat to like a chatbot. It's just a This is a command AI wallet. Awesome. Uh this is being picked up by lots of people, lots of big players on the B&B chain. seeing what Aaron has made and they are in absolute like you know they can't believe that something like this exists and they're very impressed with it which means that this is uh I would say this could be white label I don't know but I it could be a kind of white label service it's a first that I've seen on the Binance Smart Chain or anywhere in crypto where something is so intuitive there it is I've I've claimed all my Topaz so I come back to Topaz and of First, what do we do when we claim our topaz? We lock it up. Lock up that topaz. And we come to lock.
You lock now cuz you're going to get a boost. 50% boost for any locked topaz.
We come to increase lock. We choose the right lock. Richie, always choose the right lock.
And we lock it up little bit. Topaz in the lock. Boom.
Like this is my strategy at the moment.
Compounding of course is a great idea too. The last thing I'll say on topaz is the crypto arborist put out very nice uh message on topaz.
This is quite funny. Jurassic pork uh arborist what's it called? liquidity.
This is uh quite a good way to see uh how topaz works. We'll give it a read.
So most people aren't looking at Topaz or most people are looking at Topaz the wrong way. They see the token price going down and assume the opportunity is getting worse.
Um but on topaz decks, a lower Topaz price can actually make the income opportunity cheaper to entry. Yeah, here's why. So if we come and we check the Topaz price, come to easy to find Topaz. Go BSC on deck screener. Then up here, top three decks on BSC. Easy. You're there. Boom.
Topaz top coin always because it's going to have great tensations and great value. So, we can see. Yeah. So, the the launch topaz chart is very much similar to a lot a lot of charts at the moment, right? Launch and coming down. Coming down slower now, which is nice to see.
So, market cap of 372,000, liquidity of 95,000, FTV 2.6 million, and price at the moment is 0.004.
Okay. So he continues, "Topaz is not just something you hold and hope it goes up. When you lock Topaz, it becomes V Topaz. VE Topaz equals voting power. And voting power helps decide where DEX incentives flow. Think of a normal liquidity position. First, you're you deposit two assets into a pool like uh USDT and REBNB. You earn fees and rewards from that pool, but you also take risk in the pool. It could go out of range. You could lose to impermanent loss exposure to both assets.
Impermanent loss capital tied to one position.
Locking topaz is different. Instead of supplying liquidity to one pool, you buy topaz, lock it, and vote on gauges.
Those gauges direct rewards to pools.
LPS earn from being in a pool. VE Topaz lockers earn from helping direct incentives across the decks.
That is the part that most people miss, and it is actually. Yeah, we we'll read that again. Instead of supplying liquidity to one pool, for example, USDT and wrap Bitcoin, instead just buy topaz and lock your Topaz to vote on gauges.
The gauges direct the rewards to pools.
So when you come to vote and say you put everyone puts heavy votes into BMBBUSDT, that means that the rewards for the next week or epoch will get higher rewards into that pool. The LP earned from being in that pool because they get higher APR. V Topaz lockers earn from helping direct incentives across the decks because all week or all week epoch these um L peoples are earning fees and it's that's what you're earning when you're voting with your VE Topaz. You're earning the fees that were produced in the week before. Right?
That is the part most people miss. VE Topaz is not just a loyalty badge. It's a productive voting power. If Topaz voting is doing volume and pools are competing for liquidity, voting power can have real income value, right? If to if Topaz DEX is doing volume, right? So, let's have a look. Is Topex DEX doing volume? Yes.
So, TVL 1.6 million and volume $491 million of volume so far. Incredible, right? The average daily volume, it looks to be around about $20 million of volume every single day on Topaz, meaning that fees are coming in every single day. Looks like the average fee at the moment is around about $3,2,500 of average fees daily. Now, as prices go up and down, these volume and fees will change. As the market gets busier or less busier on different days, this will also change. But you can see there's a consistency here of continuous volume and fees coming into Topaz. And over time, what you're going to see is that these fees are going to go up and the volume will also go up. Why? So, if we come to liquidity and we check out some of these pools and what's happening in the pools, right? So, we want to go to the highest TVL pools. Click here. First one, right? USDT with rap B&B is uh this is the V2 pool that we we mentioned, right? So you get 20% going in this pool. If you just go into the gauge, you get topaz roars 20%. Okay, this is 0.15% trading fee. This is dynamic. This can change, right? Similar to what I made for suiex, I can change the pool trading fee at any time. But the Topaz one is a little bit more or a lot more um complex because they have two fee levels. I I I believe it's got a base fee and there's also a a a moving fee as well. I think that changes with different market volatility. We come to USDT USDC concentrated. The trading fee at the moment is 0.001%.
It was 0% for a while, right? Why was it 0%? Because Aaron wanted to try and get as many people into this pool to get them trading, right? To get picked up by arbitrage, to get picked up by different bots which are going to trade stable coins across the Binance Smart Chain.
And that in turn churns volume. You can see the volume um today is $4.8 million of volume on this pair, which is incredible. And that fee is now going up. Before it was zero, today it's $48.
Right? As this gets more liquidity, right, at the moment, the TVL is just under $200,000. Say this gets to 500,000 or 1 million. that allows Topaz to increase this pool trading fee so it still stays competitive with other um pools out there on Pancake Swap for example, right? So the TVL has to increase of the liquidity pool before the fee can be increased. When the fee gets increased then the fees will also go up. When the fees go up that means your voting rewards will also go up. Okay, so you can see this same strategy across so many different pools. The 0.0065% on USDT and bit uh BMBB, right? Doing $4.1 million of volume today, TVL of $100, $115,000, right? So again, if this goes to a million TVL, this fee can go up and the fees at the moment of $350 a day will go up as well. Okay, so I hope that makes it clear. This is the the way to see Topaz, right? When Topaz gets cheaper, that voting power gets cheaper to buy, right? So, at the moment, Topaz is getting cheaper. It's been getting cheaper for, you know, it's a little bit more. It's gone up 1.42% today. But if we look at from a couple days ago, we are down about 20 20% right on the topaz price. So, Topaz is cheaper than it was last week, right?
um that voting power is cheaper to buy because now I can buy more topaz and lock it for the same voting power.
Right? If Topaz is 0.01, then 1 million Topaz costs $10,000. If Topaz is 0.005, then 1 million Topaz is $5,000. Same token base voting power, lower entry cost. So the price drop doesn't automatically reduce your ability to vote. The protocol does not say Topaz is down, your lock tokens count less. Your voting power comes from the amount of topaz locked. That's why lower prices can make accumulation more attractive.
Right? So right now say I I have I had at the time of the um sacrifice pre-sale and the launch and the airdrop right I had a very nice bag of topaz but because more topaz is being released every single block right into the overall crypto market right it's because through emissions right and people are getting rebases every time the voting reward happens that means that yes so I have 1.8 8 million 1 almost 1.9 million topaz at the moment in this uh lock right but every week that I don't continue to add to this lock either through yield farming and sending the topaz into the lock or buying more topaz at a cheaper price that means that my overall exposure in inside of uh topaz is going to go down. So you anyone who's seeing a lower chart and a lower price then thinking oh hang on a minute. So I if I just come and I I sweep up some topaz I got any dollars dollar. Yeah. So I I grab like another $100 of topaz. Right.
And say okay now I got another 21,000 uh topaz. If I put in $1,000 at the moment I'm going to get me $213,000 topaz. Right. Great. Awesome stuff. Um, if I send in $5,000, right, we're going to get ourselves 1 million topaz. So, it's very easy for someone to see a low price and think, okay, this is a bad opportunity for buying. But actually, you can and think about this, right? So, I'm going to get 1,100 USDT is going to get me uh 21,000 Topaz, but I'm going to lock this, right? And when I lock it, I'm going to get 50% boost on my Topaz.
So if I come to lock now and I go lock now 50% bonus and this goes down this has only 1.5 um oh no 3.6 6 million topaz left on this then it's going to go down to I think 40% is the next one right so if I come to increase my lock and I choose this lock here right and then we go in with that so we'll take uh 20,000 okay take 20,000 topaz I'm going to get myself that's right 30,000 topaz for this purchase I go in I have gone up to 1.91 v topaz I increase that and that's how you play it if you are a fee hunter right if you want the weekly rewards to continue to be high and strong, you got to get more Topaz. This is not financial advice. This is maths.
Okay? So, the protocol doesn't say Topaz is down. So, your lock tokens count less. Your voting power comes from the amount of Topaz that is locked. That is why lower prices can make accumulation more attractive, not less attractive.
Topaz Dex is doing real activity, as we talked about, $199 million a day in DEX volume.
uh 1.81 million TVL. There's 474 million Topaz locked as V Topaz. And that makes me uncomfortable because usually in a protocol like this, I like to be a 1enter, right? I like to have 1% or above Topaz in my lock, for example, or in any protocol, I want to I want to hold 1% of the coin. Uh, of course, not Bitcoin, but like you know, starting up projects, right, as they're growing. So that does push me to think okay I need to get a plan because that means I now need need to get 4.7 million topaz right but then at the same time by the time I accumulate 4.7 million topaz there will be more topaz locked which means I'll need even more so it is a it's a the race is on for that right current higher volume uh pools that we talked about it's a simple thesis if topaz keeps doing volume pools need liquidity if pools need liquidity incentives matter if incentives matter votes matter and v topaz is the vote. So the question is not only will Topaz go up, the better question is what does it cost today to buy voting power and what can voting power earn? That is a very different way to look at the token. Okay, so he he continues on. Um so his conclusion is most people are looking at Topaz like a chart. I'm looking at it like discounted voting power in a deck that's already doing volume. That is the VE Topaz opportunity. Yeah. And the last thing I'll say on topaz is if we do historical analysis, which I've talked about before, on projects that Aaron has launched, there's always a second pump.
All right, that's some advice for the 50 60 people watching. There's always a second pump on the uh Aaron inverse tokens. So definitely I expect and I have been waiting for it for the signals of the second pump. We're still waiting on it, but I've I've not seen an iron project where there's not a second pump and he's had quite a few projects. He's a very experienced developer. So, that's also some non-financial financial advice for you there. So, Topaz, that's the one. It is uh definitely my my go-to on the BMB chain. Okay, someone said Dex bonds. Let's have a look what's happening with my bonds. So, I've not been doing much on DEX bonds recently. I of course I'm bearish so I'm waiting for the the floor on the market that we talked about. So Dex bonds at the moment are paying 55% APR on your bonds. Uh the total bonds are now 94,000 bonds with daily profit of $1,400 on all bonds minted. Daily compounded is $1,300.
Uh today I have $37 to claim from my bonds. I'm ranked 223 in owner for the bonds with my 50 I think I have 56 bonds currently.
So I've got 56 bonds. The uh stake bonds value is $1.4,000.
Now of course this is way down. Um, I entered the bonds uh when they first existed and I have much like if I'd bought Ethereum or SUI, same thing's going to happen, right? So, there's nothing wrong with the bond system. It's the market system, right?
So, my bonds, my net deposit is has been $11,000. Uh, it's now worth 1 uh $1,400.
I've had $3,300 a profit from the bonds since I have been in bonds, but my P&L so far is down $6,000. This is market condition. There's nothing that you can do to make tokens more valuable, right?
And if you see the um portfolio that DexFi have for their bonds, it is very much I would I would term it a bull market portfolio. So that's why we're I've seen quite a shocking um breakdown in the deposit value the to the current value to the deposit value. So my strategy is I'm not leaving no way because the system is good but it's it's best in the bull. So as I said the bull market is slowly coming. Uh I still think six months right? What did I say?
Q4 Q1. So we're 6 months 200 days right away from from that. Um if we look on debank I haven't checked their portfolio for a while though so I might be wrong.
Right. So the bank uh it shows where they hold most of their um all well all of their sorry treasury and you can see what they're doing. So we have banker with ETH. So banker if you don't know is a coin. It's an AI coin. I see a lot on X but I never buy it actually. Um but it can show you examples of uh tokens that that they're um going for. So banker h is very volatile right this this is uh going quite nicely you know from if we take it from uh we'll go from January 1 of January so from the 1 of January it's actually exactly the same right so depending on when they bought it but it is volatile it's going to have uh peaks and troughs of 300% up and it's going to have trough another trough of um 60 70% down because it's a $45 million market cap coin during a bare market, right?
So, that would be I would I would term that as bull market coin, right? And there's lots of positions here. Uh 100,000 200,000 three uh 200,000 about 200 250,000 with banker, right? Then we have Tibber.
Tibber is a cat uh rabbit memecoin.
Okay. We have banker with ETH and GDEX.
GDEX is their own protocol coin. All good there. But they're pairing banker with it, right? Uh again, so they must believe quite strongly in banker. Then we have uh Rey. I've not ever heard of Rey. Um and this is the the tactic is because you need to get high paying B coins to pay the bonds. You can't just pair it all up in stables and say, "Okay guys, you're going to get 3% or 2% or 1% uh like a a year on your bonds now until the bare market's over." It's not really in the strategy. So ray uh up down up down right so same but it's been a while so that's October yeah so it came down October but it's been very much stable since then so not that pick actually uh it's the ranges of ray are roughly what's that 30% swings yeah about 50% swings in price uh since October the volume on it uh across this pools if we type in ray we can find different volume. So it'll probably be high volume $8,000 42,000. So does about $50,000 of volume a day inside the Ray pool. So they had that one um with lots of liquidity with ETH and Ray. Then we have Banker Banker LFI another coin. So um then we have GitLab Bit Lobby B another one with uh about 100,000 Claude AI coin. So this is in my opinion why uh a lot of the they have 752 ETH in a smart move.
It's a smart move. Hopefully it's not locked. My I don't know if my USDC is still Oh, but they borrowed. Okay, so they supplied in 1.2 million and they borrowed out 600,000. Okay, interesting to I guess add more uh borrowing add more yield to uh what they're um paying out then render pax pendle. So lots of coins but I would stick by the fact that like in the bull market if they choose the right coins then you could see your bond value completely skyrocket um if we get this altcoin run that we we need right. But in a bare market, you're going to see considerable bleed. So, generally what I do is I get USDC and then I swap the USDC and buy another bond. At the moment, a bond is $25, right? So, you just have to have 0 uh 015 ETH to do it. So, you come in, you buy another bond. The moment, if I buy a bond for $25, I'm going to make $14 on that bond for the year. So, I'm not buying bonds heavy because I still think that bond price might go lower if my prediction of the market goes lower.
I think I talked about this like three months ago. Um, so and then when I think the the the bottom is in, then that's when I'll start buying up more bonds.
Um, that's my plan with uh bonds. Good system, great system. Wrong time essentially. Can't change the time.
Can't can't change the market.
uh other things. Okay, so let's talk a little bit about gems. So gems uh their sale is continuing on. We talked about Kai token. So you can come to gems.vip link in description and you can come to Kai and Kai is now running. I have some great news about Kai. I want to announce that I am in talks on WhatsApp with the team from Kai and I'm pushing they've liked the content that I've put out about Kai. So they I'm pushing them and well asking basically if they can come on the channel we can do a live AMA with the doxed team from Kai so that people who are already invested into Kai or thinking about investing into Kai can get all the questions answered that you might not find in their information uh booklet on gems.vip.
So that will be a great day. I'm really looking forward to that. So, I think anyone who's already put their money where their mouth is on this project or who's considering it would be quite interested. So, I'll open up um public questions that I will in person face to face ask the the development team for the project if there's anything you're curious about. Okay. Um which is great.
Full transparency. So, Kai, the round one is ending in 9 days and 12 hours.
This is the time when you're going to get the cheapest price on Kai. And this is important because if we look at Kai, right? And we see the price at the moment is 0.00.6 per Kai token. Right now this goes up.
So in 9 days it will go up. If the round one fills faster it will go up before 9 days. Right? And if it doesn't fill it goes up anyway. Right? So this price will go up. The fact is that the listing price for Kai and the round price right now the listing price I think is 0.03 right so 6 12 18 20 like we're talking multiple multiple X's above what you're getting for the cheapest uh cheapest price for this pre-sale round. Right?
This is the way that gems have always done this is exactly what they did with Rain Token. It's what they've done with all of their pre-sales. They encourage people who are alert and paying attention to get into pre-sales early so that they can get the best price. And as more people find out about the sale, as the sales amount continues to grow and more people talk about it, then of course the momentum builds and they then realize, "Oh, I wish I'd found it earlier." No, it's that same thing with the the guy going through the doors. You know, the grim reaper like, "Oh, no, there no it's not that. is the waiting at the counter, you know, buy this at $1, there's no one there. Buy this at $5, huge crowd, right? So, it's that kind of psychology that they run. Uh, their psychological idea for how they run their pre-sales works like this. So, we can see I don't know if they have the listing price here for the token. Um, don't think so.
Um, but we can find it. I'll find it and we will talk about we can talk about that as well in the AMA. So in terms of Kai what is it? So Kai is a NEO bank. Kai will be a NEO bank. It will be banking app that will work with your crypto with your stocks with your fiat will be fully regulated and it will be available on of course desktop and mobile. Interestingly I was talking to the GEMS team yesterday. I had a call with them and they told me that they're they were playing around a little bit with the AI agents which are available on Kai and quite cool because things like um other banks of course are going to start introducing agents onto their banking software as we were looking at the AI Topaz wallet right which you know Aaron is always ahead of the game here he already has it right so imagine if this wasn't uh for Topaz Dex but this was for Kai and you're dealing with your bank account your crypto your trading, your borrowing, your leverage trading, perpetrating, your bills, your uh buying food, buying tickets for concerts, paying bills, right? Everything. And you say, you know, how how how much how much do I have for uh this week um to budget for a $100 trade? Uh also pay my electricity. I need to fill up my car.
How much on average do I spend on my car? and do I have any upcoming uh subscription payments coming up and everything. And then the AI agent inside of to um inside of Kai in theory would then um say, "Oh, this is this is your situation. What do you want me to do?"
And you say, "Okay, well, you know, order pay my bills and set up a trade for me in a attractive um you know, high possibility to to to grow stock and do this." Okay, great. it will go away and do it for you. Right? That is the big idea for what Kai are building with their agents. They he told me that the advantage that Kai has over other projects um other sorry banks for doing this is because they're building it from the the beginning to work like this.
Whereas with Revolute for example, if they want to go a Revolute would have to um add this to their existing infrastructure, right? So Revolute is a bank, they do crypto, they do stocks, they do personal business, they do um many things, currency exchange, right?
But they cannot um they don't do self-custody. That's number one. So if you buy bitcoin example on revolute then you're going you don't own the bitcoin you just have paper bitcoin essentially right so on revolute if they want to introduce AI agents they have to build the agents on top of what's already existing which builds up uh it's a huge job and massive security concern whereas with Kai because they are doing it from the ground up it means it's it's a much cleaner build in my opinion so well not my actually in gems opinion. That's what they told me. Um, so that's also quite interesting. I found that quite interesting and yeah, let's see. So, great news, the AMA being planned and uh, how will they and who? Good question. Who will be regulating them?
Let's find out. Kai Dcuments.
We have the tokconomics, the light paper, the Let's see.
We can probably find this very quickly.
Uh, I'll add here.
We'll see. I I I'm not really in the mood to um read it, so I'm just going to get someone to scan it for me.
and tell me let's use this one will be regulating.
Okay.
And we can come here as well. D solution.
Can also try their website. So can find this is generally how I research projects. I just pull up um all of their um everything they own.
than they they usually mention who's going to be regulating them.
But that's a good question to ask in the AMA. I'd rather hear it straight from them, right?
No, not available. Interesting.
Interesting. I did watch an AMA with them before the launch and they did mention regulation and they did mention partners, but I didn't write it down.
features. Maybe they had a versel as well.
I don't think I still have that one. Oh, here we go.
Tokconomics and fundraising model.
I can send all this to anyone uh in the crypto mischief chat if you are interested in reading more about Kai.
They have really a lot of information to go through though. Um, they want numbers.
That's their staking for their token. I quite like that idea as well. All the things that you can uh you can st Kai token into their bank and earn all of this up above.
Flywheel supply liquidity holders into users why the model works.
Nope. Nothing. Okay. So, that's that would be a top question. I'm I'm I'm thinking for the AMA. So definitely writing that one down. Thanks for the question. Good. I want more questions like this. We need to push them hard, right? I'd like to like really uh push hard. Push hard on Kai so that we can get much more. Mr. Furley has sent a million messages. Okay. We need that SpaceX IPO discussion. You should put a prediction on option related to the initial valuation. SpaceX. No, I'm not touching that with the barge pole.
SpaceX will dump uh valuation it's next week right so SpaceX I'm pretty sure 135 a share so the interesting thing with skeptics question whether SpaceX is worth 1.77 trillion of course everyone's going to be skeptical of SpaceX because it's Ellen Musk and nobody likes Ellen Musk these days um SpaceX IPO is a referendum on Musk say market watchers.
Um, I guess we could go to Poly Market.
So, this is something we we could add this to Sudex predictions. You know, we could have a SpaceX IPO uh guessing the price. I could get an API which has the price and then we just decide.
Um, but we can't find the poly market.
Uh, SpaceX predictions on real time odds. Okay.
Oh, so many. See, I find poly market just is too much for me. Too much choice in the shop. It just kind of kills me.
Closing market cap.
Where are we? 2.2 trillion is their closing market cap idea for this $2.2 trillion. Wow.
So, if we come and see the, you know, to put it in perspective for us, Bitcoin is uh $1.2 $2 trillion. So in one day, SpaceX would close above Bitcoin's price if it follows this. The thing is what I read about SpaceX and their launch is that they lowered the um margin amount that someone needed to invest to get into SpaceX IPO, right? So before it was an extremely high amount of money that you needed to invest in the IPO just before the launch of SpaceX, they lowered it and they lowered it to two, no to $5,000, right? And that's retail. That's not investment bank.
That's not VC funds. That's not big rich billionaires grabbing up loads. That's retail already entering into SpaceX IPO before the listing of it. Now, if when that happens in crypto, what happens, right? If you have a pre-sale, we've seen it a million times, right? Come on.
We We have a pre-sale and all the whales come in and they get the cheapest price and then they open up to the public and the public get on the pre-sale with lower amounts of money at a little bit more expensive price and then the project launches. What happens? Retail holds because they think it's going to go parabolic 10x and all the initial buyers with substantially more than retail dump on them, right? So, I think that's probably what's going to happen.
Anytime you want to try and buy a new stock that's just listing, why not just wait for six months and then buy it?
Because if you really believe that SpaceX is going to be a successful company, you're going to have years to buy this, right? It's not it's not a crypto. It's a stock.
So, why not? If it and if it does go up massively, so say you miss the opportunity, okay, sure. Uh I'm wrong and don't listen to Richie. But in my opinion, it's set up to dip quite some and then you could buy it and own a more of the stock of a company that you think is going to do really well uh instead of uh less. So that's that's my opinion on it.
Um it would be a huge publicistic move more than anything because pay people pay attention to that. Yeah. Yeah. That that's what I think will happen. So, good news. The World Cup game for uh let's go to the World Cup. Oh my god, it's uh immediate action time because the next game has started. We are currently uh involved with um the South Korea and Czech Republic is happening. I chose draw on this account. I need to get into the live schedule. We need to check out what's happening. Uh it's nil nil currently with uh 33 minutes played.
It's a draw and I went for a draw. Oh, we have 25 people now into the suede predict. Awesome. So, if you're new, if you're just watching now, if you go to predict.suedex.org, we have the entire World Cup competition running on suedexpredict. You choose win, lose, or draw in the group stages.
You choose win or lose in the knockout stages. Top point scorer for the entire competition. Top 10% of you will get the prize pool. Everybody pays the same price in 10 sui. Yeah, it's on sui.
Tensu is like $8, right? So for $8, you could get yourself a bag of this prize pool. The more people in, the bigger the prize pool. I'm taking nothing, right?
Zero goes to Richie for this. Although I do have one point. So I could take something if I predict it correctly. I could take one point. But we just started. If you are joining, you missed the first game. The first game was Mexico against South America. Mexico won. Uh you will also miss South Korea Czech Republic because that's currently come. It's ongoing. But it means you have anotherund and two games to predict. So and points continue to go up as we go through the competition as well. If we come to the guide, the point system is group stages. We have 72 group stages. Each game that you correctly predict gets you 72 point one point, right? So total of 72 points to be won there. Round of two currently is one point. I think I might raise it to two points um for the round of 32. Round of 16 is two points. Quarterfinal four points. Semi-final eight points. Final 16 points for correct predictions.
Champion bonus you already missed if you're not already in. Sorry, you snooze, you lose. So, the champion bonus you cannot get. That was to predict the overall winner. But some people, as you can see, uh have entered. Uh BO48 right here has entered. I'm just checking the contract's working perfectly. Uh BO48 entered. He came in after the competition, so he didn't get the chance to choose a winner, so he had to sacrifice the 32 points. But not everyone's going to get the 32 points.
You can see Argentina, England, France, Norway, Spain. There's only one winner of the World Cup.
There's only one winner of the World Cup. You know who it's going to be, right?
Say it.
St. Edward's army.
So, get in. Uh, this is going to be fun.
We have four weeks of prediction. The longer you delay joining the prediction game, the less points you could possibly win. It's very important, right? And I think I'm thinking about making some uh uh profile page uh some, you know, some badges that people can get like I was in the first prediction game and that can also maybe give you some perks as well.
Um lots of things we can do on Suie, which I love. I love that. Okay, so that is the World Cup game continuing ongoing. Get yourself in and let's get to it. Other things I want to talk about Oram. All right. Oram the most boring crypto printer I've ever been in. Really just continues. What's happening in Oram today?
Oram. Today is Friday. So what what have I gotten this week? $16 $34 $24 $18 today. not coming in yet. Uh will land in my balance soon.
Uh I think usually it's 9:00, but I think they change the time the money comes in. But yeah, just you can see it on the month every single day without fail. 28 17 20 29 23 36 32 16 34. And this adds up. This starts to compound, right?
I'm going there right now. Looking for YSD. Oh, you're going in. Nice. Yeah, get in, man. I mean, it's 10 sui, eight bucks. If you go to anywhere else and try to get the odds that I'm giving you for for for winning the the top 10%, you're not going to find that in any betting platform, trust me. Unless you're picking specific results, but going for the whole whole tournament, no. Um, Nero is their new bot. It's not so new anymore, though. Oh, it's not loading. Great. Nero's broken.
Oh, no, it's working. Okay, so narrow continuing as well. I put $250 in. We've made $17. This has been about a month and a half. Uh this capital I can take out at any time. And then yesterday I was talking to people about I made a video about um Oram and Nero. So this is their perpetual decks which they're launching very soon. So, this is quite interesting because it's going to be another layer on the ORM ecosystem where they use their bots to then allow people to copy trade their already successful perpetual trading bots to then earn on them inside of the perex making everything fully on chain. The problem that people have with Oram, of course, is that it's not on chain. ORM says everything's on chain but it's not, right? And then they have this as well.
ORM is it ORM trading? Yeah. And another one they're bringing out which is a centralized exchange. So this is ORM trading similar to OKX, Binance, uh Bybit. No, no, Bybits. Yeah, Bybit, Mexi, like all of these centralized exchanges. So Orum trading will be a trading like a centralized exchange which is coming soon as well. So, not only do they have Ponzi style lock deposit bots, right? That would be the ORM that we were looking at before.
Not only do they have that, right? Like here. So, they have the X AI bot where I I can't take these funds out for another seven months. No, 10 months, nine months, right? I can't take this $5,600 out for 9 months, right? because I went into their first bot, which is definitely Ponzi style, right? Because it's locked for a year. I'm earning on it, but you know what's what's going to happen in a year in crypto? You know, it's a long time. They then release Nero, which is their nonpay bot because if I wanted to, I could take this $250 out right now. I could withdraw it. It will take 48 hours and it will land into my wallet and I have no fee on that, right? It's just going to be taken out.
I think maybe a 1% fee, but it's been earning the whole time. Then they've taken that logic to then create narrow perpetual decks, which is going to be the same thing, but everything on chain, so you can see exactly what's happening.
You can then copy trade different agents that are being made and master traders.
Then you also then have Ourum centralized exchange, which will be similar to what Binance is doing, right?
And they will also going to have uh what's this? Binance do Binancecoin, uh, Sena, Bitcoin, um, Ethereum, all listing onto their exchange as well. And I'm not sure um it's not doesn't really look ready, but like they're going for it.
You you can't can't hit their um ambition like it's very ambitious. So, they're just going from strength to strength with the old Orum, which is good as well.
All right, so prediction coming in 25 players. Let's see if we can build up more players. I'd like to to really stress test this game. My aim was to get 50 players in. So, let's hopefully we can get 50 players into the SEX predict for the World Cup. Like I say, the best if you're on the fence about it, you should be joining right now. It's a it's a prediction game. There is no house edge. Suede is taking nothing on this predict. And to make that clear as well, I want to explain this. How did I manage to wire up a live schedule for this?
Right? How am I running this? Right? How do I get live schedule? So, we're 41 minutes in. South Korea, Czech Republic, nil nil. You can see this happening, right? In time. How how am I doing this?
I'm paying right money from my pocket to run an API. APIs aren't cheap, right?
So, I'm running this continuously for the whole competition so that people can see the live schedule. That's what's filling up your um onchain identity for because everyone owns an identity card when they enter into the suede predict you get an object which is your card essentially I can NFT if you want right and that will hold your history of every single thing that you've um done in suede predict right so I need to run that if I want to get walrus for example data layer that can remember everything and make a diary of all your predictions you we can track that as well that needs Google cloud like there's many things that uh come and entail cost for running these kind of things and I'm taking zero house edge on this because I want to build and experiment and grow my skills as a developer on Suie. So this is an example of it. So this no house edge 10% is going to the person who gave me the idea right think about that you know not taking anything. So I would like to try and get 50 people in this so I can really stress test it. Then I can build an even better uh like presentation on top of it is the idea. Very simple. 10 sui in predict in 10 sui choose your games. You get to choose every single game in the world cup. Boom boom boom boom boom. You can choose them one at a time. You can choose them all at the same time for the group stages. The of course the next knockout stages are not shown yet because we don't know who will be in them. And then you knock them all in. You wait for the results. As results come in, you get points for games. At the end of the competition, whoever is the top 10% of points scorers get the prize pool. That's it. I'm picking Scotland for sure. The luck factor is strong. There is no way Scotland are winning the World Cup. You'll be throwing your vote away. You should go.
But yeah, for Scotland, Hayiti, definitely uh I think Scotland can beat Hyiti. Uh, I don't think we're going to beat Brazil to be honest.
Okay, I think that's everything I wanted to talk about today. I'm not sure if there's any other projects that I'm really so excited for uh at the moment because we are down in the drums of the bare market.
But yeah, keep looking out for the predict game and for what we'll be putting out next on Suiex. Try out the AI agent with Topaz. It's really great, really exciting, and I will see you in the next video if no one else has any other um comments. I think uh I'm going to head off for the day. Enjoy your weekend everyone and let's meet up soon and talk some more. Peace. I've been Mischief Finance. Everyone be good to each other and as always don't get wrecked.
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