Tropical Storm Forming and moving toward the Philippines...

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]It's Wednesday, May 6, 2026. I'm meteorologist Brian Shields here on Mr. Weatherman, Weatherman Asia. A tropical depression has formed. This is likely to become a tropical storm. The next name system, this will bring some of us substantial rain as we track it out in time together. And being mindful of this in the wake of Slaku and what that did across parts of the Marana Islands, this is going to stay to the south of Guam.

[00:00:27]It'll stay the to the south of the northern Mariana Islands to the south of Guam. This is a no hype channel. If you're subscribed, I've been highlighting the track of this for days and days how it would be moving more to the west. And that is exactly what is happening. Clouds are building up in this. Here we are in Guam. This is just to the southeast. You see this really bubbling up. The brighter colors telling me we have taller clouds. So, it is getting stronger and it does have a lot of rain with it. This is the area that will work its way through the Philippine Sea and strengthen into a tropical storm. Another tropical disturbance out ahead of it. Watching this. I'll zoom down across the Philippines in just a moment. But this is the one we're watching as it works its way off toward the west the next couple days. Here's the track. You get over toward uh Dvau right here. Uh you get back toward Mindanao. Watching how closely this will get over the next several days. This is over the next about 5 to seven days. Now what is going to happen the winds right now about 56 km an hour 35 mph pressure at about 1,03 the pressure will drop that'll be a sign of some of the strengthening it'll continue to move to the west even a little bit due south of west over the next couple of days I expect it to get stronger and then I actually expect it to weaken so it's going to be tricky as far as the strength is concerned I'll show you that in just a moment so this will be Hagape once it gets a name once it enters the P the Philippine area of responsibility.

[00:01:51]It'll get tagged the name Colloy. That is the next name. So, this is what we're looking at as far as the naming is concerned with this. And by the time you're watching this, it may already have been upgraded to a tropical storm and already have a name. Now, here we are in Guam and watching out ahead of it, watching Yap, watching over toward Palao. This should move to the west and a little bit due south of West and then eventually work its way toward the Philippines. But in between all of this, as this track can look very alarming, it is going to strengthen and then I do expect it to weaken. I want to show you a map toward the end of this video of why I'm going to see the weakening in this longer term. Now, models are doing a good job. They could really be out to launch, but they're in good control of this. I don't just look at the models. I really watch what's going on in the environment first. That is the most important thing. But I leave it I believe it has good handle on the track.

[00:02:44]The strength is going to be the tricky one. This will approach the Philippines and then we should get a little bit of a curve more toward the northwest toward the tail end of this. And at this point, we should see some of the weakening out of this. Now, in the short term, this is 24 hours out, 48 hours out, 72 96 hours out. So, you see once we get two to three days out, we'll have some of the strengthening. So, looking at Friday in particular, even into Saturday for the strengthening. Some of the models have this roughly around winds of 50 miles per hour, 80 kilometers an hour, maybe a little bit higher than that. Maybe the winds are upwards of about 60 or 70 pushing maybe 100 kilometers an hour.

[00:03:21]We'll see on that. But then there should be some weakening and I'll show you that map. That's because of some wind shear that this can run into. Looking at the probabilities of this. This has that high chance of a tropical storm. This is based on the European model. Here we are in the Philippines, Taiwan, China. you get back toward Japan monitoring everyone on this channel. If you are subscribed to this channel and a typhoon or a tropical storm is headed to you, you'll get the information. Got you covered even back toward India on this uh channel. But this higher chance 70 to about a 90% chance this does get the name Coy or Hagapi as we work our way out in time. Now, as uh far as it becoming a typhoon, there is a low chance. I mentioned this is a no hype channel. There's a low chance because based on what I'm seeing in the environment, I believe it is going to run into some wind shear and then we'll get some of the weakening. And you see here about 20 to 40% chance of this actually becoming a typhoon. So that's a relatively low chance, but it is not zero. There is still a chance that if it gets a little bit stronger just over the next couple of days, it could outperform the models, which wouldn't be a good thing. So let's take out in time here across Micronesia. Here it is developing. And as I've been mentioning in the previous videos, more of that westerly track. And you see a couple of the islands that we're watching in here monitoring everyone. So you can pick a spot on the map where you are as we follow this out in time. Friday, here we go. South of Guam. And you see the rain here. This is when it should have a name if it doesn't already. The strengthening period from now basically through Friday, even into Saturday. So watching this area here, but south of the Mariana Islands. Then it's kind of that rain maker fluctuating in strain through the weekend. Sunday though looks like we could have some weakening out of this.

[00:05:05]Now at this point a little bit uncertain. Does it kind of shoot uh toward Visayas or does it lift up more to the north? A bit of a wait and see.

[00:05:12]And I'm watching that area back behind it. Some of the models hinting at some development out of that. We'll see. But you see at least the GFS model has this weakening strengthening in parts of the Philippine scene. Then down the road weakening. Now some of us need rain, some of us don't. in the wake of Mayion and we don't need any of that rain really mixing with uh some of that ash.

[00:05:31]That of course could cause some big issues. On the flip side of things, uh this may actually kickstart the uh southwest monsoon. Uh we could see that kind of this lifts to the north that could crank in the monsoon a little bit earlier across the Philippines. We'll put that on the back burner as of now.

[00:05:47]This is by the time we get into Tuesday.

[00:05:49]Now, jumping ahead, this here is Thursday. So, this is tomorrow. You see this spot here? This is a different model, a model I like. Uh, and you can see this system right here as most likely a strong tropical depression or a tropical storm south of Guam. Here we are in the Philippines. Let's jump ahead as we watch this model rather similar to what I just showed you with the GFS.

[00:06:09]Things are matching up on Saturday, working its way through the Philippine Sea, very close to Palao and then pulling closer. This one has a closer approach and a little bit more rain with it as it works closer toward the Philippines. So we may actually get rain out of it if this solution were to work.

[00:06:27]This would be about a week from now.

[00:06:28]This would be not not today but next Wednesday. Now I mentioned the windshare. This map is very crazy. I know just to orient you uh Philippines here. We get back through China uh Taiwan. We swing back through uh Japan watching over toward Korea. And you see it here. This is on Sunday. This is the spot here as it lifts to the north.

[00:06:47]There's a ribbon of high wind shear.

[00:06:49]That's a good thing for us. Those are winds way above our heads that could knock off the tops of a developing system. That would be good. So, I do believe it is going to run into some windshare and that's why it may weaken.

[00:07:00]But the critical point will be the next two days. Does it strengthen more than what the environment's really showing and what the models are showing? If it does, that could be a concern and that could really change the forecast. But as I get more of those updates based on what I'm seeing, I will let you know first right here on Mr. Weatherman Asia.

[00:07:18]Now looking at the water temperatures where this is traversing of course those water temperatures conducive for strengthening but it's not just what's going on on the surface. It's what's going on above our heads down the road.

[00:07:28]There should be that windshare. For some reason the windshare relaxes though this could be a little bit stronger. So watching that now in the short term we have that blob out ahead of it right that I showed you. This is not TD5. This is not tropical depression 5. But it will bring some rain. Watching that in especially eastern sections, eastern regions for that better chance of rain, not only later today, but more so as we work our way uh into tonight and again tomorrow. Central and southern sections, better chance of rain. Then it kind of backs off on Friday, may catch a shower around Dvau, uh Lucan, maybe a stray chance of a shower around the NCR, not a whole lot. So across the capital region, we're not looking at a lot on the way of rain. It's going to be minimal. May catch a couple showers though over the next 24 to 36 hours around Sibu. Let me know if you do get any showers. Put your location and if you're dry or if you have been getting some of the rain. Now, here's the big picture. This is the spot we're watching. Here's that area working its way generally south of Tokyo.

[00:08:23]Exactly what we were talking about in the last video. The rain would mainly be to the south that is holding. So, that's the area we're watching. But, here comes that next surge of moisture uh from Taiwan, swinging back toward Japan.

[00:08:34]Pretty similar. Northern sections of Japan will get some rain. Heavier though, south of Tokyo. There's that secondary spot we're watching back behind it. And I'll zoom out even more so and show you the rain totals in just a second. But watching this area as we work our way into Saturday and then you see that frontal boundary in here through the weekend. We'll see some showery weather as we get back through Taiwan. So looking at the rain totals, I'm about to zoom down. We'll shift around. You could pick a spot on the map maybe where you are and highlighting some of the rain. Southern sections as I mentioned the Philippines, we could get some spots maybe not 100 millimeters of rain. That would be if we get some downpours. There'll be a couple spots just not widespread of that uh of getting 100 millimeters of rain. But this is the area as I mentioned next 24 to 36 hours we have a better chance of getting some of the rain. Mindanao Visay especially southern sections that's where we have the better chance not as high back to uh Luzon. Now Vietnam has calmed a little bit some spotty showers.

[00:09:29]Cambodia uh Cambodia southern sections uh Thailand Laos watching out for some scattered areas of rain. China. Just depends on uh where you are. Of course, watching out for that moisture building back toward Taiwan. And then back through Japan. Look at the southern islands where some of the uh spots could work upwards of about 15 cm of some rain. But there's Tokyo. That's kind of been the marker where most of the action has been sitting to the south. South Korea mainly dry. North Korea a chance of seeing some of the showers. And then we'll watch this area. Models are hinting at some development. Here's India over the next 7 to 10 days. a chance of getting some development. So, we'll keep an eye on that as we uh work our way forward out in time. So, a tropical storm is forming. Uh we'll monitor that. Maybe already by the time you're watching this, it has a name staying south of Guam. Doesn't mean we can't get some rain in parts of the Mariana Islands, but generally staying to the south. It'll approach the Philippines. It should be in a weakened state. We'll see if it drives in any rain. I'll have updates on that going forward, but there should be some of that windshare and then watching that tropical wave back behind it. So definitely a busy pattern and we know it's only going to get busier. So thank you for taking the time to subscribe and have a very good day ahead.