New storm developing in the Philippine Sea & Record rainfall in southern China

本站添加: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]Take a look at these images out of southern China where we've had some severe flooding due to the rainy season front. We're also watching an area in the tropics for potential development in the Philippine Sea. I'm meteorologist Robert Betta. Plenty to talk about out here today from our area towards the south and east of Guam. Now an invest and it does look like it could become Jangmi in the Philippine Sea. And look at our if rainy season front stretching from Okinawa back towards southern China over the last few days bringing some staggering amount of rainfall. And as you just seen right there with the rainy season front still bringing some flooding out there as well. In fact, take a look at these rain totals. This is absolutely incredible. First you got the metric system. 1,075 mm in 24 hours there in Guangdong Province in Yong Chong just towards the west of Hong Kong. Heavy precept to put that in the Imperial perspective 41 in in 24 hours over a meter of rainfall.

[00:01:04]Isn't that just absolutely wild? And it just shows what the rainy season front can do sometimes. Just how much is controlled the atmosphere out here. It has lifted towards north across the Yangzi River Basin, basically stretching through western areas of Japan. Now, if we're talking about our tropical system, you see how this dipping down just a bit though, and that's part of our front there in southwestern areas of Japan.

[00:01:26]And I point that out first because that is also going to control the potential for our tropical system developing down here because it's weakening the subtropical ridge since it's so strong.

[00:01:36]So if we get something developing south of Guam, more than likely it's going to turn towards the north and shift there as it rounds the west pack high. So at first keeping it south of Guam and then shifting towards north, but you see the rain symbol there could have that enhancement of the southwest monsoon kick up. So let's break this down a little more detail. I'm meteorologist Robert Betta. By the way, thanks for clicking on this video and I do hope that we're doing our best to keep you informed about what's going to be going on out here in the Western Pacific and not hyping things up. Just giving you the latest information. And this is what we got right now. Our invest area towards the south and east of Guam starting to get convection a little bit more organized with this, but we still don't quite have a terrible defined level of low-level circulation. So there is still a lot of questions to be had as I've said over the last few days, but you know, consensus with guidance is coming along. The Google Deep Mine pretty much in line with the ECMWF at this point. So I'm just going to show you the ECMWF so we don't get too much into the weeds here, but basically has this developing passing south of Guam, increasing some showers out there in the Mariana Islands, passing kind of enhanced showers, and then it tracks off here towards the west. There is a potential of our low-level circulation entering the P. That's this dash line right there where we get the Philippine name. But as I've said for the last few days, it's not so much about the storm itself. It's this look back towards the west. Look at the inflow coming in. And I do believe as we go ahead through the mid the latter part of next week, first midning back towards north, we're going to see the start of the monsoon kick up because this looks more and more like a monsunal gy type setup versus a full-on low-level typhoon. And I know that sounds technical, but basically a monsunal gy more just kind of grabs the moisture and creates this kind of doughut shape. And we see this overall rain accumulation outlook versus kind of a defined low-level center track on here. And and this is what I'm talking about. So take a look at this. We have the monsunal gy versus a traditional typhoon. It's an AI generated graphic, but I told it what to say here. But basically, this is what a monsunal gy does. See, that's what I'm talking about. It's spinning backwards. My goodness. Uh but the point is it has more of this doughnut shape on it. It picks that moisture and the winds are spread out over a wider area. The rainfall is spread out over a wider area versus a traditional typhoon where it's kind of tight in the lowle center. So when we talk about this, we're talking about a kind of prolonged rain event that could also kick up the southwest monsoon aka the habaga here that's going to increase showers along the west coast of the Philippines and also kind of start yeah the rainy season out here especially for places like Pelawan, Mindanao, Bisayas and maybe in region one of northwestern Luzon. So there's those connections to be had here with our storm system. So first passing south of Guam and then more than likely we'll see this turn towards north based on all the consensus the position of the westpack high and that rainy season front that's bringing the flooding there across China. So I try to break down all these different details here uh for you instead of just kind of showing you what the models are indicating. So that's what we got out there right now. Big shout out by the way to our Patreon members who support this channel. We also have a very weak kind of low pressure area just enhancing afternoon showers on Sunday for Mindanao that is separate but also connected because this is also going to be part of that moisture that's going to kind of kick up out of the south and west air uh helping to enhance the start of the monsoon but it is bringing scattered showers across the southern areas of the Philippines even over towards uh Pelawan you're looking at a little bit of a rainfall and we look back towards the north from Laspby temperatures into the 30s there also Got some showers even into the afternoon for Manila. Still staying on the hot side though. Heat indices into the 40s in a lot of these spots outside of Baguio where you're still at 25°. If you want to go somewhere cooler, head up to the mountains. All right, so here's my main points from meteorologist Robert Spetta. Uh this could kick off the monsoon. That's what I'm thinking as we start off the month of June. Could also be named Jangmi if JMA does upgrade us to a tropical storm eventually. Not today. Probably still for another few days to be honest. And this point I am expecting a tropical depression at the very least. Possibly a storm. Unlikely a typhoon, but the potential is there. Uh right now we do have an invest area. All right. But the potential is there. So want to make sure you continue to check back in for the latest updates. Make sure you subscribe uh as well. But once more time, I do see this. The GFS really wants to pull for a typhoon. I do want to point that out, but not leaning on it. I think the convection is too spread out and we're starting to see the start of the monsoon. And given everything I'm seeing, I see more of this doughnut shape outlook. That was the ECMWF, by the way. This is the GFS. Little bit tighter, a little bit further north, but it also grabs that moisture inflow uh here. So there is that consensus for turning on that monsunal flow here across Southeast Asia and the western uh Pacific. So it all ties together. All right, I'm going to keep you posted.

[00:07:14]Okay, we're going to continue to check back in. So make sure you check back in tomorrow as well for the latest update on what's happening out here with this storm system. I'm meteorologist Robert Betta and as always, stay safe out there.