I Built a Model to Find the Best Hitters in the Minor Leagues

本站添加: 2026-05-16

[00:00:00]We're about a quarter of the way into the season, and while I've already made a few videos looking at how MLB players are performing, this feels like a good time to check in on the minor leagues.

[00:00:09]In this video, I'm going to build a hitter ranking score for AAA hitters, factoring in power, contact, plate discipline, and distribution or optimization.

[00:00:17]This analysis doesn't include positional or age adjustments. It's simply a way to gauge who's been the best hitters in AAA so far this season.

[00:00:25]Before getting into the results, let's go over the methodology.

[00:00:29]First, this analysis only looks at AAA hitters 25 years or younger who have seen at least 250 pitches in AAA this season, which is typically under 100 plate appearances.

[00:00:39]I limited the pool to AAA players because we have full statcast data at this level, allowing us to use quality of contact metrics like barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard hit rate.

[00:00:48]If you remember, I previously made a video looking at which minor league variables were most predictive of major league success, and these quality of contact metrics performed extremely well in that analysis.

[00:00:59]The 250 pitch threshold is somewhat arbitrary, but I wanted at least a reasonable sample [music] size. That means players with very short AAA stints, like A.J. Ewing who played just 12 games before getting called up to the major leagues, won't appear here.

[00:01:12]The overall ranking is built from four components: power, contact, plate discipline, and optimization. To put all these metrics on the same scale, each variable was standardized using Z scores before being combined into different components.

[00:01:26]For the power score, I averaged the standardized values for the 90th percentile exit velocity, max exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit rate.

[00:01:34]For contact score, I use zone contact rate minus whiff rate. For the discipline score, I use zone swing rate minus chase rate.

[00:01:42]Finally, for the optimization score, I use launch angle tightness, which I defined as the deviation from 15 degrees, and pull air rate.

[00:01:50]Ideally, I would have used launch angle sweet spot percentage, but average launch angle was the only data available.

[00:01:57]Once I had these four scores, I weighted them to create the overall hitter score.

[00:02:01]The weighting itself was somewhat subjective, but I wanted power to matter the most because of how strongly these quality of contact metrics translate from the minors to MLB.

[00:02:10]I weighed the optimization the least because we're approximating launch angle tightness, and I think that component is probably the noisiest over smaller samples.

[00:02:18]In the end, I weighed power at 35%, contact at 30%, plate discipline at 25%, and optimization at 10%, with the final hitter score being the weighted sum of those components.

[00:02:31]Let's take a look at the top 10 hitter scores.

[00:02:33]Immediately, we can see that there are a lot of corner outfielders and first basemen. This makes sense. There's no positional adjustment in this analysis, so this list is always going to reflect the best hitters rather than the best overall prospects.

[00:02:45]As long as we're clear about the goal of this analysis, that's not only fine, it's exactly what we'd expect.

[00:02:51]Looking closer at the top 10, we see that two of the top three hitters are in the Minnesota Twins system.

[00:02:56]Emmanuel Rodriguez, the top player on our list, absolutely mashes the baseball. He has the highest max exit velocity in Triple-A, a 99th percentile at EV90, and both his barrel rate and hard hit rate rank in the top decile.

[00:03:09]On top of that, his plate discipline is strong. He doesn't chase often, and he swings at an above average rate in the zone.

[00:03:15]He also posted a very high optimization score thanks to his 15.1 degree average launch angle and his 28.8% pull air rate.

[00:03:23]While the contact score isn't great, it's easy to see why Rodriguez is viewed as one of the top power hitting prospects in all of baseball.

[00:03:29]His teammate and the more highly regarded prospect, Walker Jenkins, comes in at number three.

[00:03:35]His placement this high is encouraging because his actual production this season has only been a bit above average, largely due to a slow start.

[00:03:42]Whereas he doesn't have Rodriguez's raw power, Jenkins does almost everything well. His quality of contact metrics range from average to excellent. He makes a lot of contact in the zone while avoiding whiffs and he rarely chases.

[00:03:55]Two things working heavily in his favor as a prospect are that he's only 21 years old and he's still capable of playing center field. While there's no guarantee that he sticks there long-term, it's easy to see why Jenkins is considered the top prospect in the Twins organization.

[00:04:09]Sandwiched between the two Twins prospects is 24-year-old Sterling Thompson. Thompson is exactly the type of player I hope this analysis would highlight. [music] Fangraphs ranked him as the Colorado Rockies 12th best prospect entering the 2026 season, so he wasn't viewed as an elite prospect across the league.

[00:04:25]However, Thompson has been outstanding to begin 2026.

[00:04:29]Looking at the four component scores, Thompson posted the best plate discipline score in the entire sample while his other three scores were all comfortably above average. He may not have elite home run power, but he still hits the ball hard, makes a ton of contact, and has an excellent eye at the plate. He's knocking on the door of the major leagues and I'm interested to see what role, if any, he plays for the Rockies this season.

[00:04:51]Since most of the players in the top 10 are corner outfielders and first basemen, I also looked at the top five hitters at each position.

[00:04:58]One shortstop I wanted to highlight was Denzel Guzman in the Los Angeles Angels organization.

[00:05:03]Even though he's already hit five home runs in AAA this season, his power score is actually below average. However, Guzman does just about everything else well. He posted the third best plate discipline score in the entire sample and also graded very well in contact.

[00:05:18]The fact that Guzman ranks as the top shortstop hitter in AAA is especially encouraging because his bat has long been viewed as the weakest part of his profile.

[00:05:26]According to Fangraphs' 2026 preseason scouting report, Guzman received a 20 hit grade, the lowest possible, along with 40 game power and 45 raw power grades. Meanwhile, his speed and fielding were graded at 60 and 50 respectively.

[00:05:41]Given his defense, speed, and a premium position, if some of these offensive improvements carry over to the MLB level, Guzman could carve out a solid MLB career.

[00:05:50]Another player at a premium position I wanted to highlight was Jefferson Quiroz.

[00:05:54]As you can see, Quiroz didn't grade particularly well in plate discipline, contactability, or optimization.

[00:05:59]However, he posted the best power score among all catchers in the sample.

[00:06:04]Quiroz was once considered one of the top catching prospects in baseball before missing nearly a year and a half with labrum and hamstring injuries.

[00:06:11]Now that he's healthy again, you can clearly see the elite power potential, though the concerns about his contactability and plate discipline remain.

[00:06:19]Another key part of his projection is the positional value he provides at catcher. However, there are still questions about whether he can stick there defensively long-term.

[00:06:27]His arm strength appears weaker following the labrum injury, and his caught stealing rate in 2025 was nearly half of what it had been before his injury.

[00:06:35]Outside of the arm concerns, though, he's still viewed as a strong blocker and framer, which is why FanGraphs believes he can remain viable defensively at the MLB level.

[00:06:43]If he does stick behind the plate, he has the kind of power that can make him a valuable major league contributor very soon.

[00:06:50]While this analysis only covered AAA players, there are a couple of single A hitters with Statcast data who I wanted to mention because they likely would have graded extremely well under this model, too.

[00:07:00]The first is Yasser Mercedes, a 21-year-old center fielder in the Minnesota Twins organization.

[00:07:06]In a little under 70 plate appearances in low A, Mercedes was unbelievable, posting elite quality of contact metrics alongside low chase rate, strong contactability, and good optimization.

[00:07:16]Had he qualified for this analysis, I think he would have ranked among the best players in both power, discipline, and optimization.

[00:07:22]After his hot start, Mercedes was recently promoted to high A.

[00:07:26]Given his elite power profile, strong plate discipline, and the positional value that comes with playing center field, he's definitely someone worth monitoring as he climbs prospect rankings.

[00:07:36]Another player I wanted to highlight was Jesus Pinto. A relatively unheralded prospect entering the year, Pinto has had one of the most exciting starts of any low-A hitter.

[00:07:46]Primarily a center fielder, Pinto is raking to begin the season, combining impressive quality of contact metrics with strong plate discipline and elite speed.

[00:07:54]The one weak point in his profile right now would likely be optimization. His average launch angle is extremely low and his pull air rate is poor.

[00:08:01]Pinto doesn't necessarily need to become a strong home run hitter. He just needs to probably elevate the ball more consistently to better maximize the quality of contact he's already producing.

[00:08:11]Pinto only recently turned 19 years old, which makes the breakout even more exciting.

[00:08:15]If he can sustain this level of performance throughout the entire season, he could quickly go from a relatively anonymous prospect to one of the more intriguing young players in the Detroit Tigers organization.

[00:08:26]Overall, I think this exercise is a good job of highlighting both the elite offensive prospects we already know and some under-the-radar players who may be breaking out.

[00:08:34]Obviously, these aren't meant to be prospect rankings. There are no age or positional adjustments, and often performance is only one piece of the player evaluation.

[00:08:43]But by focusing on quality of contact data, plate discipline, contactability, and optimization, I think this gives us a useful snapshot of which hitters are genuinely performing the best beneath the surface.

[00:08:54]As the season progresses and sample sizes grow, it'll be interesting to see which of these performances prove sustainable, which players continue to climb prospect rankings, and which hitters eventually force their way onto major league rosters.

[00:09:06]If you like the video, feel free to subscribe. It would really help the channel continue to grow. Thank you, and I'll see you again in the next video.