What if Lincoln ducked?

Added: 2026-05-18

[00:00:00]Abraham Lincoln's death was probably one of the most impactful single events in American history. It changed the course of the country right at the end of the Civil War, setting up a feud between Andrew Johnson and Congress over what to do about the South. But what if Abraham Lincoln didn't die? What if he lived to serve the rest of his presidential term?

[00:00:21]And what would happen next? This is What, Why, How, and that's what the video is about. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and check out patreon.com/wyhow.ow.ow.ow.ow.ow.ow.ow.ow.ow.

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[00:00:32]Abraham Lincoln was shot on April 14th, 1865. Now, there are a million ways John Wils Booth's scheme could have gone wrong. Lincoln could have sneezed at the right moment. His bodyguards could have been paying attention. So, let's just say that Lincoln lives to watch the rest of our American cousin. What happens next? Well, if President Lincoln lived, he would have overseen the end of the Civil War instead of Andrew Johnson. But I don't think there'd be much difference there. Actually, the main difference would be in reconstruction, what to do with the rebel states and their population after the war. Now, the Republicans in Congress wanted punishment and drastic measures to help black southerners. Andrew Johnson, a Democrat, wanted a quick and easy reconciliation. He didn't really want the federal government to intervene much in the domestic institutions of the South. In real life, their tugofwar over the South ruined reconstruction, at least until President Grant took over, but then he lost office and the whole thing collapsed. Anyways, so what about Lincoln? Well, ironically, back in the 1860s, both sides of this issue claimed Lincoln would have been on their side if he lived. Lincoln did want reconciliation and peace, but he was also invested in protecting black Americans. Lincoln actually did have a plan for southern reconstruction proclaimed back in December 1863. His plan was that if 10% of the voting population took an oath declaring their loyalty to the United States and recognizing the end of slavery, then Lincoln would pardon all but the highest ranking rebels and allow the state to reorganize a government of its own.

[00:02:13]Also, Lincoln called for the restored states to provide education to the newly freed population. Side note, slavery, of course, had come to an end in conquered southern states thanks to the Emancipation Proclamation from back in January 1863. But there was a risk they'd restore slavery somehow, hence the 13th Amendment, which we'll talk about in a minute. So, several southern states actually rejoined the Union under Lincoln's 10% plan. One problem. This was far too lenient for the radical Republicans in Congress who wanted stronger guarantees that the rights of freed slaves would be respected in the South. So in February 1864, Congress passed an alternative plan, the Wade Davis Bill. To summarize it quickly, instead of 10, 50% of a state's voting population would have to swear loyalty to the Constitution before they could reestablish their own governments, and rebels would be disenfranchised.

[00:03:10]Lincoln vetoed that bill. So the idea that he was some sort of radical is just not true. Lincoln was a moderate Republican. But then in real life, Lincoln died in April 1865 and Congress and President Johnson wrestled for control of reconstruction. At first, Johnson had lighter requirements, but then Congress took over and imposed harsher requirements for a while before the whole thing collapsed. But that doesn't happen in this timeline since Lincoln lives. So Lincoln remains in charge of the Union as the last battles of the Civil War come to a close and as southern states surrender. Under his power, Lincoln would then be able to appoint new governors to the rebellious states. He also would issue pardons to many former rebels as a measure of reconciliation against the will of the radical Republicans. In most southern states, enough people sign onto Lincoln's loyalty oath, so they organize their own state governments. Lincoln successfully pressures them to agree to the 13th Amendment, too. Slavery is formally abolished by the end of 1865, which is a major victory for Lincoln.

[00:04:12]While Lincoln doesn't pardon the highest ranking Confederate leaders like Alexander Stevens, he does pardon lowranking Confederate officers. The southern states send a swarm of those to Congress for the December 1865 session.

[00:04:25]The Republicans, despite Lincoln's calls for reconciliation, refused to seat the exrebel southerners because during all of this, the southern governments have, of course, begun to pass new laws, the black codes to discriminate against the freed black population. Oh, also there's the KKK. Now, basically, southern states try to reimpose slavery in everything but name. And now they have their own governments to do so. This is kind of what happened in real life. So Lincoln's 10% plan, which had few guarantees for black people in southern states, would backfire tremendously. Probably one of his biggest mistakes. Republicans call for Lincoln to take drastic action. Some call for him to disband the new southern governments and reimpose military rule.

[00:05:11]Lincoln is split on what to do. He's sympathetic to the call for black rights, but he doesn't want to abandon the reconciliation process. But like the other moderate Republicans in this time period, Lincoln decides that he has to protect the freed population in the South. So working with Congress, Lincoln would extend the Freedomman's Bureau, an agency to help black Americans, and he would sign onto the Civil Rights Act of 1866, which guarantees citizenship and equal rights to all persons born in the United States and not subject to any foreign power, including, of course, black Americans. So basically outlawing the Black Codes in the South. In order to make sure the bill can't be undone in the future, Congress also passes the 14th amendment with basically the same text. The amendment then goes to the states for ratification. Lincoln also directs the Union Army in the South to take a much greater action to ensure black Americans civil rights. That means patrols in rural areas, protecting new black schools, and enforcing the new federal laws. But the South is a gigantic place and imposing equality at the point of a bayonet is a herculean task. Meanwhile, the 14th Amendment faces serious challenges in the states as many southerners refuse to support it. Plus, mob violence and state resistance to reconstruction continues to escalate despite Ulysus Srant's best efforts. In 1866, states hold their House and Senate elections. Without an unpopular president to campaign against, Republicans only pick up a few seats.

[00:06:40]But despite this, come January, Congress refuses to seat any congressman from any southern state until they ratify the 14th Amendment like Tennessee does.

[00:06:50]Congress has had enough of Lincoln's reconstruction and wants to take the reigns. Lincoln opposes this as blackmail, but there's not much he can do since the issue is for Congress to decide. In 1867, Congress passes a new harsh reconstruction act which would abolish the southern state governments and impose military rule on the South until they fully signed on board to reconstruction. Basically, the Wade Davis bill again. Lincoln is again split. He wants to secure black rights, but he doesn't want to be viewed as a vindictive conqueror. And he also doesn't think the government has the power to just disband state governments.

[00:07:27]So, this is too much for Lincoln. He vetos just as he did with the original Wade Davis bill. Congress then has to vote whether to overturn his veto. With fewer Republicans and a more popular president to campaign for the veto position, Congress fails to overturn.

[00:07:44]The Reconstruction Acts fail. Meanwhile, northern states vote for Democrats or moderate Republicans in the 1867 state elections, showing declining support for reconstruction. So, entering the second half of his second term, Lincoln tries to secure the rights of black Americans while tying his own hands behind his back. The Union military tries to protect black civil rights while the civil authorities in the South try their best to do the opposite. Some radical Republicans try to organize an impeachment of Lincoln, but this effort falls through. The 14th Amendment, meanwhile, is in limbo without southern states approval. 1868 is an election year. Congress votes not to count any vote from the states not fully on board with reconstruction. So basically the entire South except for probably Tennessee only. This would mean Democrats have basically no chance at winning. Lincoln vetos this bill even though he knows it's a bad move politically. Congress by a narrow vote overturns Lincoln's veto. Basically all southern states won't be able to vote for president unless they approve reconstruction. Meanwhile, Democrats nominate Vice President Andrew Johnson as a moderate who wants to bring a uh dignified end to reconstruction. Some Republicans want to renominate Lincoln for a third term, but not many at all.

[00:09:00]Lincoln's legacy has been tarnished by his contradictory reconstruction policy.

[00:09:05]Naturally, Lincoln refuses to run for a third term. Republicans are split on key issues, but find a unifying figure in war hero Ulyses Srant. Grant supports black voting rights and a tougher reconstruction policy. Vice President Andrew Johnson campaigns across the country in the so-called swing round the circle to explain his positions. But ironically, this only hurts his chances.

[00:09:28]The Republicans instead narrowly secure the presidency and hold onto Congress.

[00:09:33]So in March 1869, Abraham Lincoln attends the inauguration of his successor, Ulissiz Srant. Lincoln retires peacefully and after some time returns home to Springfield, Illinois.

[00:09:44]In Washington, Grant sides with the radical Republicans and implements their policies, imposing military rule in the South. Southern states pass a 14th, then a 15th Amendment, and some black Americans even serve in Congress.

[00:09:57]Briefly, Grant wins re-election in 1872, but by 1876, support for reconstruction has crumbled in the North. In the presidential election that year, Democrat Samuel J. Tilden of New York wins on a moderate platform and dismantles reconstruction. Voting rights for black Americans come to an end in the South, at least for the next 80 to 90 years. Lincoln would probably die sometime around then. While he is celebrated as a hero in his day, modern historians poke holes in his legacy, especially because of his hesitation and moderation during reconstruction. While he was better than some alternatives, he would be weaker than others, and reconstruction would ultimately fail anyways. But that's just one possible timeline. Maybe I'm wrong on Lincoln.

[00:10:43]Maybe he would have changed his mind and become more radical. Maybe if Lincoln and Johnson had been assassinated, the radical Republicans would have led reconstruction from the start. If this video does well, I'll make that a video.

[00:10:54]So, don't forget to like, subscribe, and support the channel on patreon.com/whatwhow for early access to future videos.

[00:11:02]Thanks to those who do and adios.