Dr. Arvind Panagariya Drops Truth Bombs On The State Of Indian Economy Despite Fuel Price Hike

Añadido: 2026-05-18

[00:00:00]You know, then you know, if if you follow the the Indian television, you know, economy is perpetually in crisis.

[00:00:06]Indian economy is perpetually in crisis.

[00:00:08]Uh but they then they're embarrassed when the growth figures come out. I mean, the growth figures the average of the last 3 years has been 7.3%.

[00:00:18]Uh and and every year actually I'm finding that all the forecasters are embarrassed.

[00:00:24]Uh uh because nobody is forecasting beyond 6.5. Doesn't even hit the seven.

[00:00:29]How is it consistently the economy is doing seven above 7% and the average of being the 7.3%?

[00:00:36]Now, I don't rule out the possibility that look, you know, in this situation when the uh oil price rises that dramatically that much, uh the growth rate will not be impacted. I think small impact will happen.

[00:00:50]But, take the 20-year period that we have observed uh from 2003 to 2024, let's say. Uh you had the global financial crisis. After that, you had a sort of our own small banking crisis, meaning that, you know, there's NPA uh uh accumulation which really killed the credit growth temporarily in 2017. Yes.

[00:01:16]And then we had the major COVID crisis.

[00:01:18]So, you got three crisis. In the 20-year period, you get a growth rate which is well above 7%, especially I like to do these numbers in in dollar terms and the growth rate between 2003 to 2024 in real constant dollars has been 7.6%.

[00:01:36]So, I mean, this is why I am remain uh optimistic that we would get to the kind of high-income threshold of the World Bank by 2047 when the Prime Minister wants India to become a developed economy.