Vol Stars S1E31 - A Bear in Central Park

Added: 2026-05-16

[00:00:01]The full video version of this episode is going to be delayed for a few more days, but in the interest of getting something out, here's the audio only version. We hope you enjoy.

[00:00:12]Welcome to Vol Stars, a Gamma Strike production.

[00:00:36]Welcome to Ballstars, where we talk everything markets and those who make them. Today's episode is brought to you by your mom. The reason why we are a day late recording the podcast this Mother's Day weekend. Call your mother. And finally by gamma.com providing actual real-time data for every type of trader.

[00:00:54]You've tried the rest. Now try the best.

[00:00:56]gamastri.com. I'm JFresh and I'm joined by our co-host Girk and Ador. Let's get into the market overview. I really wanted to keep that one short and sweet to accentuate the mother >> of listener.

[00:01:13]>> I gotcha.

[00:01:16]>> Yeah.

[00:01:17]>> All right.

[00:01:17]>> All the moms out there, shout out to you for making babies.

[00:01:22]>> For making all of the psychopaths that made the financial markets.

[00:01:27]>> Yeah.

[00:01:28]>> Whoa.

[00:01:28]>> The occasional.

[00:01:29]>> Whoa. Whoa. Again, it's called narcissistic personality disorder.

[00:01:34]Psychopathy is totally different.

[00:01:38]>> Okay. Narcissist.

[00:01:39]>> Sociopaths.

[00:01:42]>> Sociopathy. All right. Uh well, we had [ __ ] all happened this week. A lot of a lot of talking and frenzy of words flying around, but really nothing happened.

[00:01:55]>> But so much happened, but nothing.

[00:01:57]>> Market went up. Well, sure that's what they do.

[00:02:05]>> But like Iran, anything actually happened there other than just everybody we did the whole same song and dance.

[00:02:13]Did Kushner go back to Iran or uh to Pakistan? How what what episode are we at on Kushner goes to Pakistan? I >> think this week he gets in the plane, it's flying there and then turns back around, flies back.

[00:02:26]Yeah. Could have been a Zoom meeting.

[00:02:31]>> Yep.

[00:02:35]Yeah. Just just going in [ __ ] circles. Really?

[00:02:38]>> We're still in a ceasefire as we're both actively hitting each other with weapons. That's fun.

[00:02:45]>> Yeah. It's great.

[00:02:46]>> The United Arab Emirates is now joined the frey, right? The UAE's shooting things at Iran.

[00:02:54]>> They didn't want to miss the opportunity to use some of those US missiles.

[00:02:57]they've bought.

[00:02:59]>> Got to cycle out that old inventory, you know.

[00:03:02]>> It's true.

[00:03:04]>> So, yeah. I mean, and you look at So, in the last week, Gas Buddy did go up a little bit, I think, and it went back down, but we're sitting firmly at 450 national average for gas.

[00:03:19]So, that's going to bite. Well, how do we feel about Trump recently announcing that he might revoke the uh sales tax on or was the whatever the gas taxes are on gas?

[00:03:33]>> I'm really issuance are going to go up.

[00:03:35]>> I'm really wondering where he gets the power to do that.

[00:03:38]>> That's what I was going to ask. Does he even have the authority to do that?

[00:03:42]>> No.

[00:03:43]>> No, not so. Yes.

[00:03:45]>> Not by our constitution. He does not.

[00:03:48]Oh well, >> if you if you if you look at the legal document that is the backbone of our country, it says no.

[00:03:58]>> Well, the thing is is Congress is figuratively and literally toothless.

[00:04:03]So, they're not going to do anything about >> going to stop him.

[00:04:06]>> Yeah.

[00:04:07]>> The Constitution doesn't have like little arms and legs. He can't like run around in like a little pugilist who's like threatens to punch him in the nose if he doesn't listen constitution.

[00:04:18]>> Yeah.

[00:04:20]>> Yeah. No, he's You know what though?

[00:04:22]It's interesting if he does that. Um I have a feeling it's going to affect the bond market a bit. Rates go up a tiny bit because of that because the money to fund the government has to come from somewhere. And if it's not coming from taxes, it's coming from debt.

[00:04:39]So that'll be interesting in the very least if he actually does pull that off. Um, but it goes to show too that the Gas Buddy chart, even though we we hem and gap, it is uh it's a fairly important chart and that's one of the things that all the people who are in power like to uh make sure isn't out of control, which right now it looks pretty out of control.

[00:05:06]So, if they can't get that under wraps, then um they're gonna have a lot of pissed-off voters come November of this year, which is midterms.

[00:05:14]>> And the last thing the Republicans want is losing power to especially to I've seen a lot of young people getting in.

[00:05:20]>> Trump Trump figured that out. He's he's just going to send um personnel to make sure that there's no cheating.

[00:05:35]>> Yes.

[00:05:37]Yeah, the election integrity army that he's sending out.

[00:05:40]>> Mhm. Yeah, he did mention those. I >> think they're called the vote stopo.

[00:05:46]>> I think they're called ICE.

[00:05:50]>> Yeah. So, between that and loaning out a [ __ ] ton of oil from the SPR, which also I think came out today, they're going to loan 50 million barrels out of the SPR.

[00:06:01]They're loaning it. They're not they're not they're not releasing it. They're loaning it out. It's it's an IOU. It's as good as money.

[00:06:09]>> Speaking of all the >> It's not as good as oil, though.

[00:06:13]>> It's It's an oil in the bush. Okay.

[00:06:16]>> Or it's an oil in the hand.

[00:06:18]>> I think people forget that oil and money are not the same.

[00:06:22]>> I mean, they're pretty [ __ ] close.

[00:06:23]>> One's a limited resource and the Fed has made the other unlimited.

[00:06:28]>> Okay. It's just a tiny difference. I wouldn't print more oil.

[00:06:34]>> Yeah, Cash Cari can't print more oil.

[00:06:38]>> Well, >> so speaking of deficits, I want you guys to throw a dart at the dart board and guess what are year-over-year. So, from May, basically May 9th, let's see, May 9th of last year to May 9th of this year, what is the total deficit over that time? Like what we acrewed?

[00:06:58]>> Yeah.

[00:07:01]No cheating allowed. Okay. Uh, >> obviously not. That ruins the fun.

[00:07:06]>> Um, I'm going to guess 2.67 trillion.

[00:07:13]>> Okay.

[00:07:13]>> Guess 3.14.

[00:07:16]>> Jesus Christ, you guys are You really think we're spending a lot of money?

[00:07:21]It's only 2.38 trillion.

[00:07:25]>> Only 2.38.

[00:07:30]you guys. Okay, which is a big deal, right? Because like a year ago it was just two trillion. So it's gone up by like almost what 20%.

[00:07:40]>> Everything must have exponential growth, including the money supply. Okay. It's the key tenement of new Keynesian economics. All right.

[00:07:48]>> And we haven't even started giving back the refunds yet, have we? For the tariffs. You mean the refunds we're going to give back to Walmart and all the other major corporations that sold the stuff to us, but not us?

[00:07:59]>> Yeah.

[00:08:00]>> Yeah. It's going to be fun.

[00:08:04]>> No. Um, >> wait. Weren't you collecting tariffs?

[00:08:08]What's wrong with you?

[00:08:11]>> You know, I don't know.

[00:08:13]>> Is Gamma Strike going to sue the federal government for tariffs?

[00:08:16]>> You probably could.

[00:08:19]>> Can we?

[00:08:20]>> I don't know. despite not importing anything.

[00:08:23]>> I don't know. But if I could go back in time and start >> take out a PPP loan, I would absolutely do it.

[00:08:31]>> I would start like five businesses and just just milk the [ __ ] government.

[00:08:36]>> Did you guys not hear about haunt virus?

[00:08:38]We're going to be able to get PPP loans again.

[00:08:40]>> Oo, nice segue, by the way. Uh, yeah, we have to we have to all become experts on a new thing. So, we're oil experts, we're COVID experts, we're AI experts, we are what else >> now we're >> we're honorirus experts.

[00:08:56]>> That's what makes you makes a good analyst is being a little bit of an expert in everything >> or just believing you're an expert in everything.

[00:09:05]>> No, same thing.

[00:09:07]Same same like actual expert. So, my thoughts on this are that I I I'm still of the mindset that it is pretty much a nothing burger.

[00:09:21]I mean, yes, there's it's human to human transmissible now, but it also makes you feel like utter dog [ __ ] pretty quickly.

[00:09:31]>> Yeah.

[00:09:32]>> So, what I thought the incubation period was like a week.

[00:09:36]>> No, it's four to eight weeks.

[00:09:38]>> Four to eight. actually really bad from like a viology standpoint. I only know this because I did tons of research on this back during the co era, but yeah, it's a 4 to 8 week incubation period with a 40% lethality rate. And for those of you that are, you know, similar experts and have also played play gank, that's the recipe for uh global destruction. So right now right now the big saving grace of haunt virus the well this specific strain of Indian haunt virus is that um it has a uh >> it's not very it's not very easily transmissible. You need to be in a room with somebody who has it for a long time. Like, you know, an airplane or a movie theater or a cruise ship or, you know, just uh like a classroom or work or a bar, >> you know, places where you spend uh more time with people than you'd think. Um, doing that can can get you the disease, but everybody that you spend similar time with over the next 4 to 8 weeks can also get the disease. And then you have a 40% chance of dying, which is still a little bit better than a coin flip.

[00:10:56]>> Well, sounds like I'll take my chances at my next uh confined spaces.

[00:11:00]>> Hold on. Hold on. Who g who offers more edge, havirus or gamma strike?

[00:11:06]>> Gamma Strike.

[00:11:12]Well, okay. Well, sounds like >> as of 40 minutes ago, I pretty much thought the only way you could get haunt virus was by eating actual rat [ __ ] Um, which I've been told by Ron and others is stupid. So, I'm just going to leave that there. I don't know anything about hauntus. I don't want to become an expert in honor. I'm an expert in enough things.

[00:11:32]So, does this mean that Trump has a chance to pull off the reduction in gas prices then?

[00:11:41]>> Yeah. If we can get another like COVID era lockdown, gas prices will tank.

[00:11:47]>> Yeah. Global demand destruction looking for.

[00:11:51]>> Yeah. And and this time around, we don't even like we can just we can just live off the data centers, right? People don't need to work. AI can take care of this.

[00:12:01]>> Yeah. I mean, >> right.

[00:12:04]>> Yeah. I mean, that we're already sacrificing our water pressure for it.

[00:12:08]So, you know, >> we can eat stocks.

[00:12:11]>> I can't wait till RFK Jr. recommends me uh recommends me a AI designed vaccine for haunt virus.

[00:12:20]>> It's going to be fantastic. I think he's going to recommend we all take uh ivormectin laced raccoon penis dust to treat our low sperm counts.

[00:12:35]>> It's actually a ritual. Hold on. Hold on. I don't know if you know a lot about Maha viology. Um, but but what you have to do is you actually have to take the raccoon penis and you have to insert it into the anus of a dead black bear found in Central Park.

[00:12:52]>> Then you dip that in your ivormect and eat it.

[00:12:57]>> Then you walk. So >> it's more like a three-stage process.

[00:13:00]Helps if you draw a hex on the ground.

[00:13:05]>> How does this help our our youths increase their sperm counts >> naturally? The effort of simply obtaining the raccoon penis and the dead bear boosts your testosterone.

[00:13:20]>> Interesting.

[00:13:21]>> Yeah.

[00:13:23]>> Does it do does it specify which kind of bear?

[00:13:28]>> Probably. I mean panda.

[00:13:30]>> Panda's probably best because it's hardest to get.

[00:13:33]>> What about red panda?

[00:13:36]>> No, that's not even a bear. It's more like a fox or something.

[00:13:40]>> Okay.

[00:13:42]Well, like uh first of all, there's no bears in Central Park, >> are there?

[00:13:52]>> It's happened.

[00:13:54]>> Do you take the bear to Central Park?

[00:13:57]>> I don't know how the bear >> Wait, have you never heard this story?

[00:14:01]>> Does the bear have to be alive?

[00:14:04]>> No, that's not a requirement.

[00:14:06]>> Okay, that makes >> you can you can use a bear. Yeah, >> I'm actually pretty sure that RFK's bear was a dead bear.

[00:14:15]>> Does that mean you know what? You know what he does? He's He's like a collector. He like sees a dead animal and he takes a little piece of it home with him.

[00:14:23]>> Did Wait, are you Did RFK actually put a raccoon penis into a dead bear's anus, or are you making >> No, no, no. These are separate events.

[00:14:32]He removed a raccoon, a dead raccoon's penis, took it home.

[00:14:36]>> I know. Also, he also found a dead bear in Central Park, put it in his car, took it home with him. I don't know what he does with him once he gets them home.

[00:14:47]>> What?

[00:14:48]>> Yeah, it's okay. He's in charge of virus.

[00:14:53]>> This is not a normal human, right? Can we all agree on that? That he's a weird guy. his own like sister came out when he like got nominated and released like a 15minute video being like, "Hey, my cousin did a lot of [ __ ] drugs and used to put gerbles in blenders. It's probably not a good idea to make him the head of the head of the head of the health and human services.

[00:15:24]>> Yeah, probably not. But we did it. So there's that.

[00:15:30]>> Yeah. Winning.

[00:15:32]>> Winning.

[00:15:33]>> Then got rid of Thank god we got rid of uh DEI and now we can just hire only the most qualified people.

[00:15:39]>> Only the most qualified. WATS.

[00:15:41]>> Are we going to be doing Vibe immunology now for this next global pandemic?

[00:15:46]>> Yeah.

[00:15:48]>> Sweet.

[00:15:49]Can't wait to see.

[00:15:50]>> We just need to find a way to get the sunlight into our veins.

[00:15:54]bring it inside the body like the bleach, right?

[00:15:57]>> Yeah, >> exactly.

[00:16:00]>> I mean, to be fair, the putting bleach inside of your body would probably kill the virus.

[00:16:05]>> It would. I mean, the the most effective way to kill a virus is to kill the host.

[00:16:12]>> Dark.

[00:16:13]>> That's correct.

[00:16:14]>> Too far dark. That's >> It's 100% effective, bro.

[00:16:17]>> This is a This is a clean and classy podcast. How dare you?

[00:16:23]It's a podcast. Hold on.

[00:16:26]>> Right. Do those exist? All right.

[00:16:28]Speaking of dead bear anus, do we want to talk about the US jobs report that came out?

[00:16:34]>> The one that was utter dog [ __ ] >> Was it dog [ __ ] Was it dog [ __ ] to you?

[00:16:39]>> Where all the jobs were in healthcare?

[00:16:41]>> Yeah.

[00:16:42]>> I didn't even read it, but I just assumed that that's >> it's all it's all health. It's all health care and like a hospitality. and everything else just like if you take that out the economy is like the definition of milk toast. It is like just hanging on by a thread, stagnating as [ __ ] And the amount of people who have stopped looking for jobs, it's gone up by a lot.

[00:17:03]>> The silver exports, man. If only we knew.

[00:17:09]the um yeah, I mean the jobs report for like the last almost two years now basically looks like we're all just getting hired to wipe the asses of old people who own stocks >> pretty much.

[00:17:24]It's either that or you're just giving up. It's one of the two. Like >> I mean that's a pretty good sales pitch for stocks. Like >> buy these when you get old, someone will wipe your ass.

[00:17:35]>> Wipe your ass for you. Yeah. Maybe before you get old even if you're lucky.

[00:17:38]Yeah, I'd like an ass wiper. Be fun.

[00:17:44]>> Yeah. I mean, I don't I have a bet, but like I Yeah, it'd still be pretty cool. I think I think it'd be it'd be cool just to like How enthusiastic do you think they'd be?

[00:17:58]>> I'd pay them to be more enthusiastic.

[00:17:59]I'd give them a decent wage, you know, make sure they smile, make eye contact, like how's your how has your morning been so far? I'll be like a lot better now. You know, and we'll we'll crack those poop jokes the whole time. That kind of thing.

[00:18:14]>> Maybe you can get an out of work medical professional. Oh, no, wait, you can't.

[00:18:20]>> They're not going to be licensed. Are you kidding me?

[00:18:24]>> I'm just saying that like, you know, maybe they could give you like a little Bristol stool chart report at the end of every day, >> right? And test my poo.

[00:18:32]>> Yeah, >> that might be nice. Yeah, that was too bad they're doing that for the old people. Well, with the old people, they're just trying to find out how long how much longer they're going to live so they can, you know, work.

[00:18:41]>> Yeah. Well, they only have so much time to fleece them of all their money.

[00:18:44]>> Exactly.

[00:18:45]>> Stocks. Sorry. Of all their stocks.

[00:18:47]>> Well, you know, for old people, it's pretty much the same thing. If you look at the reports about what's happening with retirement accounts and old people, it looks like they're uh starting to make some withdrawals in a lot of those things in large numbers. So, it's one of those things where the wealth transfer that everyone talks about going to millennials from their parents and all that. It's like well, you know, it's probably going to go to not you.

[00:19:10]>> It's going to go to it's going to go to like majority is going to go to like Russian hackers who are writing scam emails.

[00:19:18]>> Yeah. Yeah. Them and Blackstone pretty much.

[00:19:21]>> Yeah.

[00:19:22]>> Yeah. I think, you know, I also I want to bring up from the employment data, right, just to remind people because it can be kind of complicated to keep track of it all, but there are basically uh three ways that we measure employment and they have varying levels of uh quality and biases and other issues. So the the first way which is arguably like the most qualitatively closest to getting a sense of how workers feel and how they're doing is the uh employment survey the uh the household survey.

[00:20:09]>> Mhm. where this number the sample size is the smallest but the you know you're getting directly information from people you know from the population and they have said in their survey uh that this month April 2026 that they have lost 92,000 jobs month over month and that number has been decreasing every month for for the last year at least.

[00:20:42]>> So, you're trying to say that jobs suck and they're going to get revised down again.

[00:20:48]>> Well, I'm getting there. But, um, so from April 2025 to April 2026, we've essentially, according remember, according to the household survey, we've essentially lost 1 million jobs. And this is despite our uh population reportedly you know growing from 200 these are just employed uh employ in the employment pool growing from 273 million to almost 275 million.

[00:21:20]So we've added 2 million people and lost 1 million jobs. So it's a net deficit of 3 million jobs technically, right? If you're trying to keep the the same rate, you know, >> uh going forward. So that survey looks quite dire. Now most of the information that we get on a month-to-month basis comes from the establishment survey and that comes from payroll data. But that is still it still relies on um establishments, businesses reporting that and that there's revisions to this because it takes a while for all of these places to report. This is still not an entirely, you know, this is still not 100% coverage. So they have to make assumptions on the birth death model, right? that you might have heard talked about where they assume how many businesses are born and how many die, what the net growth rate of businesses are to try to get a sense of how many jobs are are gained or lost, right? So that's why we do get a bunch of these revisions uh over time uh because of errors in that birth death model. Uh but that claims we gained 115,000 jobs. pretty much the exact opposite of what the household is saying and the deviation has been quite interesting.

[00:22:49]The household has been under the significantly below the establishment survey for years now. Um and I think that that's interesting to note that there is a lot of uncertainty around our how well people are doing and how many jobs are actually making. the the gold standard, the third way is done using tax information. And so it covers like it's something like 98 or 99% of all businesses. Uh and I always get the acronym backwards. So let me Yeah, this is also from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is the quarterly census of employment and wages.

[00:23:30]And that one is the the big downside to this one is that it's extremely delayed but is extremely accurate. Um so just to give you an example, the last prints were um 2025 September and it's uh preliminary numbers all year until the end of the year. Um and that print as of September of 2025 was the uh the number of jobs grew by 0.1%.

[00:24:04]And this is this is uh this is an annual estimate right so they're saying that annually in 2025 by September there were no jobs from September 2024 to September 2025 and the situation's only gotten worse from there. So it is quite likely that our economy has not been growing for the last year or so if not longer.

[00:24:32]But I read there was so much >> employment.

[00:24:34]>> Well, there's a lot of growth in spending, right? That's why the uh Yeah, the I mean, basically the the Mag 7 are taking all of their money, their stock piles of cash and they're just dumping it straight into the economy. And so it's it's uh but that's interesting because if you look at back at what the report showed, right? It's all people wiping boomers asses. Where are all the jobs making all this infrastructure that we're paying a trillion dollars for?

[00:25:06]>> Well, no, because we're not building the infrastructure yet. We're just like talking about building the infrastructure.

[00:25:14]You know, we got to we got to talk about it and speculate on it, then you build it.

[00:25:19]>> Okay. But they're putting it on their balance sheets now that this is what they've spent. Well, you know, but those are that's non-GAAP.

[00:25:32]>> I don't like this. Why is it that these public companies are so secretive and it's so hard to figure out what these public companies are doing?

[00:25:43]>> Intent.

[00:25:44]>> Well, yeah, but >> yeah, >> it's annoying. They're public.

[00:25:48]>> Yeah, it is. Yeah. Well, you know, they probably shouldn't do that kind of stuff.

[00:25:55]The problem is that, you know, the fact that they have a fiduciary duty to their shareholders to provide accurate information. Um, that whole piece of paper basically is just smeared in [ __ ] at this point. So, they don't actually care and so they treat their investors like mushrooms. Keep them in the dark and feed them [ __ ] It's just the modus operandi of the [ __ ] stock market these days, especially for these ultra-large companies because they know, and this is probably part of it too, is they know that even if something isn't looking great or it looks like they may be being irresponsible, just the mere mention of that would trigger a panic, like a massive panic in the market because they are responsible for so much market capitalization. You know, it's it's pretty much unheard of this amount of concentration we're seeing at this point.

[00:26:44]So there's there's it's weird.

[00:26:46]>> It's a bit of rest.

[00:26:48]>> It is. It's weird. Like you have to think about that like their non-GAAP earnings kind of it it really there's a whole bunch of implications that come along with anything they talk about. And so if you don't just paint a rosy picture of green grass on your side, anything other than that is going to trigger a lot of nervousness in the market. And I'm sure they think that too where they, you know, these people have portfolios of not just their stocks, they want to get their ass wiped too. And so they want to make sure that they are not the ones who trigger any sort of big old tumult in the in the equity market over them saying we may have spent too much money.

[00:27:33]>> Yeah. So there's hesitance to do that.

[00:27:36]>> All right. So stocks look great. All the non-GAAP earnings look great. Earnings are going to the moon. Semis are going to the moon as we dump all this money into buying semis.

[00:27:50]Everybody's going absolutely apeshit over it. People are talking about uh I I question some of these claims. Somebody was saying online that the QQQ uh skew was at some sort of like zero or 100th percentile. just something like off the charts statistically, but uh our data doesn't back that up. I mean, it's the highest it's been in a year.

[00:28:18]Uh >> I think that's I mean that's like the look back for skew.

[00:28:23]That's the metric they're using at least generally.

[00:28:28]>> Okay. But the skew was still I mean we had more euphoria even in like well basically after yell and goose the market by going to all bills skew actually went even higher. It was uh >> yeah the 20 the 2020 what the 2023 24 run.

[00:28:50]>> Well 2022 into 23 right?

[00:28:54]>> Yeah.

[00:28:55]Wait, that wasn't the the juice. The juice was 2023, >> was it? Am I misremembering?

[00:29:02]>> The 20 the 22 to 23 round was bank failures.

[00:29:07]>> Yeah.

[00:29:07]>> Oh, >> then we almost crashed when the yields went up and then and then they uh then then they juiced. Yellen juiced it so hard.

[00:29:16]>> Yeah. Good old caboose. I wonder what she's up to nowadays.

[00:29:20]>> Squeezing juice out of her caboose.

[00:29:22]>> Probably had a wonderful Mother's Day.

[00:29:26]Um, yeah. Like, >> yes, she is.

[00:29:32]>> Uh, don't ask me why I'm so confident in that answer.

[00:29:35]>> That was a really confident answer.

[00:29:37]>> Jenna Yellen's progyny.

[00:29:40]>> Call her grandma Yellen.

[00:29:43]>> Not grandma.

[00:29:46]>> Damn, you're old.

[00:29:50]>> Yeah. So, looking at Yeah. even like in the early part of 2024 into about August of 2024. I mean, skew was significantly higher and then we kind of fell off from there.

[00:30:05]Skew is very negative. I mean, skew is near actually near all-time lows in in March, right before it just rocketed right back up. So, we went from like all-time lows to at least yearly highs.

[00:30:22]Um yeah, so people are euphoric. Uh people are there's like uh people are talking about basically you get uh like on Intel you can get a free collar basically >> h >> for 2028 >> if you own right >> um you get a free collar. So it's kind of like if you own Intel you'd buy a collar on it. free and it protects you for like 90% of the downside for no cost.

[00:30:53]>> Good old disc >> and you still and you still retain up to something like 60%. I wish I could find the person who posted it on on X. It was actually a pretty good post.

[00:31:03]Um yeah, you retain 60% of the upside from here and you get 90% downside protection >> for free.

[00:31:14]>> So that's so people are very euphoric.

[00:31:16]people are very levered. Um, you know, I was looking at I was looking at our own data on the historical volatility and people are basically extremely long over the next 30 to 120 days all the way up to like S&P 8000.

[00:31:36]So, kind of a bit I I don't know if they're actually like what if they're smoking actual drugs thinking that we're going to get there in in a few months time or if they're still trying to play V, which seems I I'm not quite sure I've completely gamed that out. But anyway, people are quite bullish. Um, at the same time, US consumer sentiment has recently hit a new all-time low.

[00:32:05]discuss >> gas buddy chart. Is it time for me to pull that up again? Do it. No, I mean, well, I >> monthly household costs are up across the board.

[00:32:16]>> Yeah, driving to work costs more money, which means you make less.

[00:32:21]>> I brought up I brought up last night when I was when I was doing like my weekly write up. Um, this is really shockingly like forget the haunt virus the part, but like this is shockingly eerily similar to the leadup into the 2020 crash.

[00:32:41]Um, you know, the the market the market kept looking past COVID. They were like, "It's fine. It's just a flu. Nothing bad's going to happen." None of that came true. and they were like, "Oh [ __ ] they're going to actually like start shutting down businesses and we don't have enough hospital beds and it's not a flu." And and then um once that like once that data hit the tape, the market dumped. But up until that we ran like 18% in like three months in the middle of like a global pandemic breaking out.

[00:33:12]And this doesn't strike me as being a whole lot different than that.

[00:33:18]like right everyone's buying calls which is institutional and dealer driven largely right because it's all just like it's all just being driven by like the the concavity of dealers books on indexes so they're just buying like they're buying like leverage positions to hold their inventory and and like the second they can [ __ ] dump all that look out below You know it's bad when the market makers are buying calls.

[00:33:52]>> Yeah. Yeah, it is. And then getting squeezed out of them every >> Yeah. I remember you mentioning back during CO that you went short early. You know, I hope I'm not putting words in your mouth. You can correct me, but you went short before March and then just like every week you just like bought calls and just [ __ ] off for the week.

[00:34:14]And then they printed.

[00:34:16]>> Yeah. Yeah. I was uh I was well I was like $300,000 in the hole and I had I had leap I had like leap expiry puts um and I was just getting [ __ ] And half of it was like on margin and I was just getting burned up. And so I so I started just buying like like well we didn't have zero DTE back then but like like Wednesday calls and Friday calls and I would I would yeah I would I was just like [ __ ] it. It's because it was so irrational. I was just I would just buy a call and leave and then hope that gave me enough margin to hold my shorts open like another day.

[00:34:54]>> Wild times.

[00:34:55]>> Yeah. I mean, I've definitely been thinking about you describing that experience for the last couple weeks. It's just like every time I open the market, I just think about that just like I I'm glad you said that it feels eerily similar because I obviously wasn't there with you and didn't experience what you described, but I just this whole time I've been feeling like this is like that time when Girk shorted CO.

[00:35:23]>> There's a there's another time that you would remember. Um do you remember August of 2022?

[00:35:30]>> I do. Yeah. Everyone was like, "The Fed's done. We're good." Like JPL just he just raised rates at like uh what was it? Um Jackson's Hole, right? Um and he had his big Vulkar speech and everyone was like, "That's it. Okay, that's the last Fed hike. We're good to go from here." The market rallied like 13%. And then it just [ __ ] dumped >> right back down again. Um, and this is similar to that too where everyone's just trying to like look past >> all of the bad [ __ ] I have been thinking about that and and it's an excellent thing to bring up because I think the the interesting thing about 2022 uh was I think people were misattributing how much of the up and down was simply mechanical v >> and less about you know particular headlines and how people were betting right. Yes. PE there are always people that are going to be change flip-flopping and changing positions but you know we're seeing you know a sinusoidal effect. You have volatility it goes up and then it overextends and then it reverses right.

[00:36:48]Um and when that happens it can be quite violent because uh the up was violent.

[00:36:55]So like the more violent up, the more violent it can be going down.

[00:37:01]So I I do kind of it wouldn't shock me if like all of the sudden this never ending up and it kind of what was interesting about 2022 is you could almost kind of like taste it in the air.

[00:37:14]It's like when people there was like those people that were just like it's never going down again and then the other people that are just like well there's the people that were excited it was never going down again and there was the people that were distraught and were giving up because it was never going down again. And it was just like that weird just anxiety, exuberance, riddled stew that just like it reached a point where it's just like, "All right." It's like the guy from the Truman the the Truman Show. It's like, "All right, now make it go straight down.

[00:37:51]I feel like we're getting somewhat close to that point. That's not to say it'll happen, right? Everything is is a different experience. But >> sounds like you're telling me the needle dick is in store.

[00:38:02]>> Sorry, the needle top.

[00:38:05]>> The needle dick. I'm sure Bur will love that. I uh >> speaking Oh, speaking of Bur, guess who came back today?

[00:38:13]>> Uh, Michael Bur. I don't know.

[00:38:17]>> DF.

[00:38:19]>> Oh god.

[00:38:19]>> DF. He showed up.

[00:38:21]>> What's GameStoon doing? I got to see.

[00:38:23]>> Trying to buy >> selling a shitload of shares. Oh, it's going straight down.

[00:38:31]>> Yeah, actually that was funny. I we we kind of missed it on here, but um Bur Bur uh so Cohen announced his like leveraged buyout of eBay, which is obviously dumb. Um, and then Bur >> the Friday he announced it, GameStop 30-day skew [ __ ] nosedived and then Bur announced his sale.

[00:38:56]>> Nice.

[00:38:58]So, he just bought all the puts and then sold his stock.

[00:39:02]>> He just exercised the [ __ ] out of them.

[00:39:05]>> And the best thing is he did it with a Patreon paid for entirely by GameStop stockholders.

[00:39:15]Jesus Christ. Yeah, I don't know the deals with that PayPal buyout. It sounds like it's just a overleveraged mess.

[00:39:21]That's not going to happen. Sorry, eBay.

[00:39:23]Whatever.

[00:39:24]>> Yeah.

[00:39:24]>> Doesn't matter where the company even is. They could have said Nvidia and I would have been as in as much disbelief.

[00:39:30]>> Yeah. Yeah. The V surface on GME looks >> Cohen Co Ryan Cohen went out on like X or some [ __ ] and wrote like a whole like trellus on how like he never wanted to own GameStop, but he's always wanted to own eBay.

[00:39:45]>> Christ almighty.

[00:39:49]Why did he buy it? Why did he do it?

[00:39:52]>> These are questions for richer man, >> right? Yeah. Seriously, you need to have the mind of a billionaire to understand >> my my favorite thing. remember when he had like uh he was totally bricked up for Carl Ian and like went to go meet him at his home probably unannounced and unwelcome.

[00:40:09]>> Yeah.

[00:40:10]>> Yeah.

[00:40:10]>> How could I forget?

[00:40:11]>> And then and then now he's he's uh going on TV with basically the exact same black leather jacket that Jensen Hang wears.

[00:40:21]>> Yeah.

[00:40:24]>> That now >> I think so. Yeah, he went leather jacket. I think I think he's got a >> he he has a new he has a new crush, billionaire crush.

[00:40:34]>> Well, yeah. I mean, he sees the levels of grift coming out from Jensen and he's like, "Holy [ __ ] I got to get on that.

[00:40:41]I'm buying eBay." And he's not and refuses to elaborate.

[00:40:46]Hey, man, if it works, it works.

[00:40:51]You know, next thing you know, he's going to start getting barrel chested and carrying around his child on his shoulders everywhere he goes to prevent assassination attempts.

[00:41:00]>> You're talking You're talking about Little Meat Shield.

[00:41:04]>> Yes. Little meat.

[00:41:05]>> Little meat shield's a whole year older now.

[00:41:07]>> Wow.

[00:41:08]>> How much more surface area that is?

[00:41:10]>> It's true. Elon's going to become relative to the amount of surface area on Meat Shield.

[00:41:17]He's been watching Brian Johnson or whatever his name is use his son as a blood boy and he's like I got to get me one of those.

[00:41:23]>> I don't think that's true. His son I don't think he used his son.

[00:41:27]>> Well, he's not old enough yet. He doesn't have enough blood volume for it to be worth it. But >> blood blood boy work is is poor people's work.

[00:41:35]>> Well, well, the thing is you got to make sure that you only get the pure blood from your own lineage. Otherwise, you will be tainted.

[00:41:43]M valid.

[00:41:46]>> Is it Is it valid? I don't know. I don't know.

[00:41:48]>> Put yourself in the mind of a raging narcissist and then it'll make sense.

[00:41:53]>> I don't know. I mean, I do have my I do have my erections counted nightly professionally.

[00:42:02]>> Is just someone sitting there writing zero every night?

[00:42:05]>> Hey, semis count.

[00:42:11]>> Oh, okay. So the fractions >> Yeah, there's there's fractional accounting. Yes.

[00:42:16]>> 271 chub. Okay.

[00:42:22]>> All right. Do we want to talk about home sale disappointments or not? I mean, what's the story here, right? I mean, home sales have sucked for four years.

[00:42:30]The end.

[00:42:31]>> Yeah, pretty much.

[00:42:34]>> We go up 10% one month from a zero, then we go down 10% from 0.1, right? It's just like these massive swings on like because the denominator is almost zero and we're just uh housing market is flat and shitty and >> it's like if it went from one to two it would go up 100%.

[00:42:53]>> It will continue to be that way until housing prices meaningfully reduce or inflation meaningfully increases or both.

[00:43:02]>> Yeah.

[00:43:04]>> I have a I have a question, Ron. while you're sitting there doing your actual job or not working, c can you do me a favor and look up um what the safe storage temperature is for almond milk?

[00:43:20]>> Okay, >> thanks.

[00:43:23]>> Interesting. Okay, >> it's a nut, right? So, like it can't go bad. So, if I were to per chance leave some almond milk in in my vehicle overnight in 60° weather, would it or would it not be edible?

[00:43:42]>> Well, let me ask you this. If you left pasta coffee right now, >> this is tea. I don't drink milk and coffee.

[00:43:50]>> If you if you left a a bowl of pasta out overnight, would you still eat it?

[00:43:56]What about rice?

[00:43:58]>> No, because of the toxin that grows on it.

[00:44:02]>> I'm just saying. So, the 30-year mortgage rate did go up, by the way.

[00:44:05]>> Yeah. Let me ask you a question. If you left a piece of bread out overnight, would you eat it?

[00:44:10]>> No, cuz it would be stale.

[00:44:12]>> What if it wasn't? What if it was a loaf?

[00:44:15]>> Oh, yeah.

[00:44:17]>> Yeah. So, what the [ __ ] You're just asking the same exact question.

[00:44:21]>> Hold on. I think there's a better question. is what if, hear me out, sorry, hold on, let me get this out.

[00:44:29]What if you had a bag of nuts in the shape of a cylinder that you had been traveling with in your front pocket at the airport in the front of your pants in your underwear for six hours?

[00:44:51]>> Eat the [ __ ] out of those nuts. They're nice.

[00:44:53]>> 80 about 80 degrees Fahrenheit.

[00:44:59]>> We can describe them as warm nuts. Would you eat those nuts?

[00:45:04]>> Be bordering on hot nuts. Yes.

[00:45:06]>> So, what is it about what is it about liquid nuts?

[00:45:10]>> It's got sugar >> that makes them that they're surfactants potentially, although those probably work as a preservative. Yeah, I was going to say like all the oils and stuff they put in there would be fine at room temp.

[00:45:29]>> Maybe I should soak the nuts and almond milk before my next flight.

[00:45:36]I'm going to be doing a test run of this in a in a in a about a month, by the way, too. So, we'll see how it works out for me.

[00:45:46]Big thing is bacterial growth concerns from Ron. You should store it in the fridge.

[00:45:52]That sounds like something they have to say, though.

[00:45:59]I don't know. You know what I say, Girk?

[00:46:00]I say leave it in your car for seven days and then give it a shot. If you haven't opened it, honestly, >> I've stored I've stored almond milk in in in cabinets for weeks and they've been fine. They didn't have any sweeteners in them or anything.

[00:46:15]>> It's just ground nut in water.

[00:46:20]God.

[00:46:20]>> Like, how does that go rancid?

[00:46:23]It It can't, right? I mean, not quickly.

[00:46:26]>> If our one listener was RFK Jr., he would be so stoked right now. Warm nut.

[00:46:34]>> It's the ultimate protein and testosterone source.

[00:46:38]>> Yeah.

[00:46:42]>> All right. Anyway, holy cow, where are we at? Let's go into earnings. What's going on here?

[00:46:50]We got Bareric. I was looking at this.

[00:46:52]We got like Bareric, Cisco.

[00:46:55]Um I said Yeti for discretional spending and then Alaska Airlines were the only things that really kind of >> popped out in my eye.

[00:47:04]Um >> you're such a weird guy. What is Bareric?

[00:47:08]>> Bareric? Pretty sure they're an oil company.

[00:47:10]>> Oh, I have no idea.

[00:47:13]>> I saw him.

[00:47:14]>> No, Bareric's a gold miner.

[00:47:16]>> Oh, you're right. Yeah. Sorry. barracks a mining company. Well, maybe they're not that maybe they're not that interesting. I've heard people are talking about Plug on the old social media now, too. So, that's probably going to go straight down.

[00:47:28]>> Did you guys hear that central banks sold 30 tons of gold?

[00:47:36]>> That's why it went down.

[00:47:39]>> That might explain it a little bit.

[00:47:41]>> It's also why it went up.

[00:47:43]>> Who bought it?

[00:47:45]Michael Bur.

[00:47:48]>> People who shop at Costco.

[00:47:50]>> Oh, >> hey, I shop at Costco. I've never >> call you a hick. I made them separate categories.

[00:47:57]>> Truthers.

[00:48:01]>> Flatearthers.

[00:48:05]>> Underground living area.

[00:48:07]>> Yeah. The people who think it's going to have value when when the world ends.

[00:48:10]>> People with enough ivormectin to treat 100 horses.

[00:48:17]100 today about a lot of jokes today about Ivormectin, but it's coming back, man.

[00:48:23]>> Love me some ivormectin.

[00:48:25]>> The best way to best way to I heard it's the best way to cure haunt virus.

[00:48:30]>> Yeah. I mean, I put them in my nut bag that I have that I'm justating for my my airport trip. I'm going to be soaking it in as well.

[00:48:39]>> No more nuts. We've we've uh the nuts been nutted.

[00:48:46]Oh, CLA. Clara, I guess, is on if they're going to be interesting.

[00:48:49]>> We got Cisco. Are they still a thing?

[00:48:52]>> Yeah, they make network switches and stuff. Yeah, >> if a company is making offices, they're probably getting Cisco or Netgear, but I don't think Netgear is is Netgear.

[00:49:02]>> You know, you'd think if you made network switches, you would only have to make them when a new technology avails itself, and then you'd be done making network switches. Unless you made really bad network switches, which is the only way you could stay in business.

[00:49:19]>> Okay. So, so Netgear's Netgear Inc.'s uh earnings was pretty good. So, Cisco's Dude, Cisco is >> How's your light switch doing?

[00:49:35]>> My light switch?

[00:49:36]>> Yeah. I don't know. You got a light switch. How's it doing?

[00:49:40]Well, it's obviously obsolete. I need to put AI in it, but I don't know.

[00:49:45]>> All right, never mind.

[00:49:46]>> Yeah, I I I don't I haven't upgraded to the newest light switch in the last two years, so the last ones were only a,000 bucks, though. So, these ones should only be something like 1,600 bucks for the AI inclusion on my light switch. as as somebody who dabbled in home automation for a while, like eight years ago, you want to know you want to know like the perfect technology that's been invented. The [ __ ] light switch.

[00:50:13]It's like right where it always is. It always works. It's super easy.

[00:50:22]It responds instantly.

[00:50:26]requires no app, requires no network.

[00:50:31]It's the perfect technology. And any >> any attempt to automate that makes it worse >> and less convenient, which is why agree with you dabble in home automation. I would agree with you, but they're coming out with toasters that require an app and a subscription, and they're really drawing me in with this whole idea of spending ungodly amounts of money on a thing that heats bread.

[00:51:05]>> So maybe light switches are like a revolution. You could just buy like a roll of canthl wire and wrap it around something >> with a current, you know, get the get the get the resistance up and just just just hand blast your toast with your little toast wand.

[00:51:23]>> Oh [ __ ] you're a >> fun actually.

[00:51:26]>> Yeah. I mean, basically what you need to do is uh get take your existing toaster and just measure the resistance of it while it's on and then um buy some nik chrome wire, flat nik chrome wire.

[00:51:42]>> Oo, are we going to like it >> and cut it to length to get the to match the resistance and then just plug that into your wall and put the toast near it?

[00:51:55]just wrap my whole entire loaf of bread in that and just toast the whole thing all at once.

[00:52:00]>> Yeah.

[00:52:01]>> Okay.

[00:52:02]>> Wait, doesn't Nikrome wire have nickel in it? And isn't that like release toxic fumes when you heat it up?

[00:52:13]>> It's a nickel chrome alloy, >> right? Nickel and chromium or something.

[00:52:20]>> I think they use camp toasters because it's like relatively safe.

[00:52:26]I don't know. I make nikrome heaters all the time, but I don't >> I just hold a big lighter up to my toast.

[00:52:33]So, >> we're going to find out JFresh has nickel poisoning. And all the calculations you've done he's done are just complete [ __ ] >> The heater inside a toaster, this is according to AI. The heater inside a toaster is a heating element typically made from nikrome wire.

[00:52:50]Hm. They also use it for space heaters.

[00:52:56]>> Yeah.

[00:52:58]>> Interesting.

[00:53:00]Maybe it's that it has to get to like a certain temperature. So, as long as it's like lower, like the ohms are lower, that safe.

[00:53:10]>> I've heard from RFK Jr. that if I pulverize Nikrome and drink it, it'll increase my resistance to disease.

[00:53:19]>> Oh, come on. Give me a source for that.

[00:53:22]>> I'm just [ __ ] >> No, that's not how this works.

[00:53:24]>> All right. Uh, we have I am actually very interested in this company called Grab a Gun with the ticker pew.

[00:53:35]>> Pew pew.

[00:53:37]>> Like that's just really clever.

[00:53:40]But what's the c What is the grab a gun?

[00:53:45]Just guns for sale. Just an online gun store.

[00:53:49]Yeah. No, they came out fairly recently and they were a big like they're like they they were they were part of like the OG push of like dog whistle stocks and then it looks like they got wrecked.

[00:54:03]So >> it's time to go long them right now because there's nothing else left to buy. Have you seen the market?

[00:54:12]>> That's true. This is the time to buy all the stocks that suck.

[00:54:18]>> You know you got a point, Girk.

[00:54:19]>> It's a very good point.

[00:54:23]Actually, means it's almost time to buy GameStop.

[00:54:30]>> Oh [ __ ] >> Cuz it's also a stock that sucks.

[00:54:34]>> That's true.

[00:54:36]>> I don't know the I don't know if these guns suck.

[00:54:42]They probably >> they're a lot cheaper. Like a Smith and Wesson AR-15 costs like $700.

[00:54:53]That seems free.

[00:54:56]Well, go ahead and try to buy one and see all the search charges that show up.

[00:55:01]Wait, this might just be parts.

[00:55:06]>> Is it a part of an AR-15?

[00:55:09]I have no idea.

[00:55:11]>> No, >> their website is it's not clear.

[00:55:17]I'm going to click this. Smith and Wesson looks cool.

[00:55:24]You got to You want to look cool while you're shooting all those children.

[00:55:29]Sorry.

[00:55:29]>> No, no, no. You hold on, hold on. You can't shoot children anymore. Cash M Pat Mattel said AI fixed it.

[00:55:34]>> Oh, okay.

[00:55:38]He might have been He might have been drunk, but it's hard to say.

[00:55:44]No, this is like the whole gun. $700 Smith and Wesson 30 round.

[00:55:50]>> What?

[00:55:50]>> It even has a special It's got a special uh um uh 223.

[00:55:59]So teeny tiny >> little peashooter.

[00:56:03]>> 223. That's That's It's fast, but it's small. Not a lot of stopping power, but a whole lot of killing power.

[00:56:09]>> Yeah, those kids are soft. It'll go right through them. Um, >> yeah, it's even got a it's even got a little sticker on there be like rapid fire.

[00:56:19]>> What does that mean? But it's it's a semi-automatic. All right, never mind.

[00:56:24]That's >> We going to He going to go into bump firing.

[00:56:29]>> Yeah. Have you ever bump stocked, bro?

[00:56:32]>> Yeah, dude. It's totally legal. No, it's not.

[00:56:35]>> Yeah, but this doesn't come equipped with that. Also, aren't those legal now or illegal now?

[00:56:40]>> They are illegal.

[00:56:43]>> Okay, I'm going to have to learn a lot more about this because the price range for these guns is varies wildly.

[00:56:53]Oh, I guess while you look at guns, we could look at uh God, all the data is so boring.

[00:57:04]Michigan consumer sentiment was dog [ __ ] Probably because of the >> It was the worst I think it's ever been.

[00:57:10]>> Yeah.

[00:57:11]>> Yep. It's a >> I'm guessing it has to do with gas prices.

[00:57:16]>> I mean, gas prices aren't the highest they've ever been.

[00:57:20]>> No, they're the highest they've been in a long time.

[00:57:23]>> Normal.

[00:57:25]>> They're the highest they've been since 2021.

[00:57:27]Can we get Can we get like a little picture of Trump pointing up and going, I did that right there for the video?

[00:57:36]Thanks.

[00:57:37]Perfect.

[00:57:40]>> So, what do we got to look forward to this week, though? I mean, >> oh, just CPI tomorrow, which might be somewhat of a big deal.

[00:57:50]>> You don't even care about PPI.

[00:57:53]I mean, the market's not going to care that much about PPI. Not until there's pass through, right?

[00:58:00]>> Oh, right, right, right.

[00:58:01]>> Because PPI is not going to affect Fed policy.

[00:58:04]>> Right. Of course. All they care about is uh inflation and inflation expectations.

[00:58:09]>> They're just there to protect the consumer.

[00:58:13]>> Billionaires.

[00:58:15]>> Yes. The billionaire consumer.

[00:58:18]>> Yes.

[00:58:19]>> Yes. the segment the segment of the population that continues to spend that is their target demographic for their policy choices. Everyone else who's not spending, they don't give a flying [ __ ] because they don't even exist in the economic data. They're a blip.

[00:58:39]Well, okay.

[00:58:41]Then should we cut to commercial?

[00:58:45]Let's do it.

[00:58:46]>> Yeah. I have a uh Barrett Well, hey there. Producer Ron here.

[00:58:53]We've been doing this podcast here for a little while now and found out something alarming. The algorithm says that we're not seeing quite enough engagement for an audience of our size. So, I'm going to make this real clear. If you haven't already, go find that like and subscribe button. And don't JUST SMASH IT.

[00:59:13]ANNIHILATE IT WITH YOUR AWESOMENESS TO SHOW your support. Okay, there. Now we can get back to the show. Thanks.

[00:59:21]>> Well, hey there, stranger. If you're enjoying this podcast, be sure to check us out on our socials where you can hear the latest about Ball Stars and Gamma Strike. Check us out on X, Blue Sky, and Reddit.

[00:59:34]>> All right, thank you, Ron, for that.

[00:59:36]That was terrifying.

[00:59:38]I wonder if Ron was a Fallout character in his previous life.

[00:59:45]Interesting. probably. I feel like he's played some Fallout in his in his time.

[00:59:50]>> What's like the the better Fallout game?

[00:59:51]Borderlands.

[00:59:53]>> Borderlands is pretty good.

[00:59:57]>> Is it good? They They just released a new one. I haven't played it yet.

[01:00:02]>> Did they release a new They're kind of funny. It's like Fallout but funnier.

[01:00:07]>> No, no. I've played all of them except for the new one.

[01:00:11]>> Oh, okay. There is a new Fallout. I run a new uh Borderlands, pretty sure. Now I have to double check so that I'm not accused of fake news.

[01:00:20]>> You know, it was better than the Fallout games.

[01:00:23]The Fallout show >> was pretty good. Yeah.

[01:00:27]>> Yeah, it wasn't bad.

[01:00:29]>> Yeah. Borderlands 4 came out September 2025.

[01:00:40]Got something to do. that you didn't think you had.

[01:00:45]>> I mean, >> interesting.

[01:00:46]>> I'm not gonna do it, but it sounds interesting.

[01:00:52]>> You know what? I think I found my target for the next segment that's coming up.

[01:01:01]Trading with Gamma Strike. How did we do last week?

[01:01:04]>> Uh, I could tell you.

[01:01:06]>> I think I I don't think I did. Well, uh, what was my wheat was basically flat the whole week. So, let me see.

[01:01:18]Did I just win nothing?

[01:01:21]>> What long do you, but it's for September 18. It's still open.

[01:01:26]>> Um, at one point it was up 24%.

[01:01:30]>> Literally the day after we streamed >> or we we recorded. Yeah, >> it's not been doing too well since then, but I'd probably add to it, I guess.

[01:01:44]>> LR lost me 135 bucks. That's too bad.

[01:01:50]>> I basically >> I basically didn't lose any money. No, it's fine. I bet bet bet it would stay flat or go up. Stayed flat. Okay.

[01:02:02]I'm just looking at uh Yeah. LR. I'm just looking at L and R just to see. Oh, yeah. It just blasted through Gammaax for no [ __ ] reason.

[01:02:16]Love it.

[01:02:18]All right.

[01:02:22]But now I have a new target.

[01:02:26]I am thinking of trading with gamma strike on meta, >> but I still need to concoct the position. So, let me get that going here.

[01:02:44]>> Look how prepared we are for this segment this time around.

[01:02:46]>> I know. Oh, it's it's always like one of those things where it takes like, you know, 5 10 minutes to come up with a decent position for a thing you see that's noteworthy and we always forget to do it right before the show.

[01:03:00]Let me see.

[01:03:03]So, I noticed that it was on Vspread sort of towards the top with positive VRP.

[01:03:12]I was like, "Okay, you know, that's kind of a thing." Um, and then I noticed that their IV tanked a little bit ago. So, I kind of want to uh say that it's going to be flatter down yet again.

[01:03:29]>> I'm going to just make the flatter down position.

[01:03:34]>> One week in the money puts 125.

[01:03:37]>> That's what you're going to do.

[01:03:43]It came up on uh it came up on GCAN as a breakout and it's currently sitting uh well above its maximum gamma which is which is all the way back at like 112.

[01:03:58]Yeah. So I'm going to buy some in the money puts on it.

[01:04:07]I am going to do if I tighten that up a little bit.

[01:04:13]Uh God, the IV on [ __ ] meadow is insane.

[01:04:19]I can't find anything that makes sense on it.

[01:04:25]This might this might do it.

[01:04:28]Let's see.

[01:04:32]Uh, yeah, I'm gonna go like this.

[01:04:36]So, I'm just going to do the flatter down position again on meta.

[01:04:42]Or should I switch it to flatter up? Let me see what that looks like.

[01:04:46]Um, that looks terrible.

[01:04:52]But you know what? I'll do it for one week or two days or something. Yeah, we'll do this.

[01:05:00]So, if I can just go like this.

[01:05:04]Yeah, here we go.

[01:05:08]Here is my flat or up position for Meta because it has positive VRP IV tanked on it. I think it's going to scoochy scooch its way up a little bit. And uh it's pretty awful trying to actually get a solid position on meta. So, I just went ahead and picked one that isn't ste a steaming pile of dog [ __ ] just a regular pile of dog [ __ ] Um, yeah, fingers crossed.

[01:05:44]So, what about you, JFresh?

[01:05:49]I think he's busy yelling at his uh at his cat.

[01:05:55]But >> yeah, I'm gonna I kind of just want to be a little irresponsible.

[01:06:07]I'm looking at Micron.

[01:06:14]And I know it's not time to short semis.

[01:06:19]Still early.

[01:06:26]Are you going to do it anyways?

[01:06:31]Micron, if you'll believe it.

[01:06:34]has now passed Tesla and Delta.

[01:06:41]>> Really? I I believe that.

[01:06:44]>> So, it's Spy, QQQ, Nvidia, Micron.

[01:06:52]>> Are you going to short it or you going to just sell calls on it like a weenie?

[01:06:58]>> I was going to sell calls on it like a weenie, but God damn.

[01:07:07]>> Uh, no man, puts are expensive on this, which is why >> Yeah, cuz Ivy is probably juiced.

[01:07:15]>> Yeah, Ivy is very juiced and skew is also positive now. Um, and again, everything is telling me not to do this, so maybe I shouldn't do this since this is an I don't know. My heart's my heart wants to sell a 825 and buy an 830C for Friday for a uh credit of $172.

[01:07:55]But now I kind of actually want to go closer and see how that looks.

[01:08:02]Oh, it doesn't look great.

[01:08:06]>> But are calls as overpriced as puts are cheap.

[01:08:11]>> What if you sold a call to buy a put?

[01:08:14]>> Just synth short. A naked call.

[01:08:17]>> No, no, no. Not naked. Not naked.

[01:08:21]Covered by your margin. But um or uh or uh you know sell like do like a poor man since short.

[01:08:35]Yeah. I mean I can't do it for a credit but I could do it. I just don't know that I'm ready to say it's going to go down this week.

[01:08:44]So maybe I should sell puts too like I'm I mean that's >> Yeah, could just say because the ball is so high. Yeah, I kind of like that actually.

[01:09:02]>> I mean, but generally equities don't chop when they're when their V reverts because everyone piles into the call selling side. So, you just get a dump.

[01:09:16]It's not like It's not like SPX where we're >> Well, you called me a weenie, so now I'm kind of all over the place here.

[01:09:23]>> I didn't realize it was going to affect you so much.

[01:09:26]>> You called me a weenie on live telev.

[01:09:31]>> I know. We have one viewer. I don't know what you're worried about.

[01:09:40]>> Oh my god. Yeah, >> they're clearly not judgmental, >> right?

[01:09:48]What if our only viewer is actually Ron?

[01:09:51]>> It might be.

[01:09:54]It's okay. He's a He's a He's an obedient viewer. I'm going to do it. I'm going to sell the 825, buy the 830 for 173 credit, risking 327 loss.

[01:10:07]I just Yeah. Can't go up forever, right?

[01:10:11]I know I'm going to get blown out, but >> said that about in a video once.

[01:10:17]>> Yeah, but I bought I bought two calls to hedge way out of the money >> and it was one of the best returns I ever got. I uh they were It was funny because I was using Fidelity. [ __ ] Fidelity. But uh they were claiming that I had like they were part of spreads and so I couldn't close them.

[01:10:41]because I had like I had put spreads >> and uh I was like, "You motherfuckers."

[01:10:46]I literally had to get on the phone and just be like, "Sell these [ __ ] things right now." He's like, "Let me just double check and make sure it's not part of a spread." I'm like, "It's not part of a spread. Sell them now."

[01:10:57]It's the most frustrating when you're looking at your trade history and it's like, "Look, it just says right there, buy calls right there. Just bought them.

[01:11:03]Not as part of a [ __ ] spread."

[01:11:06]>> Yeah, that was insane. Uh yeah. No, I'm not going to do that here. I'm going to I'm just going to go just say that I think they're going to take a breather.

[01:11:17]I'm not even going to say they're going to go down and that's that's that. And just cuz I was, you know, I I was uh some of my I was getting tired of look I was looking at some of the some of the tickers that were popping up on some of my scan criteria and I was getting a lot of penny stocks. I don't want to do another one cuz I already did AMC. So, I was like, you know what? I'm just going to go for it. What's a big one? So, I looked at my >> Did you just say AMC is a penny stock?

[01:11:45]You just pissed off our viewers so much.

[01:11:49]>> Um, well, they're going to find out one way or another. Uh, so I looked at macro, saw that Micron actually passed Tesla, and uh figured, hey, let's uh see if it's going to take a breather. I mean, yeah, with momentum, it's probably just going to keep going up 6% every day forever and never stop. But >> yeah.

[01:12:12]>> All right. Oh, that's what I'm doing.

[01:12:13]>> Get your screenshot in. Why don't we Why don't we move on to answering our viewer's question, our singular viewer's question.

[01:12:21]>> Well, can I have a lot of questions?

[01:12:23]>> Yeah, he he's he's he's on one today or she, I don't know.

[01:12:29]Um, yeah. First question from Reddit. If the oil going up is inflationary, why would it cause a crash? Also, how does this affect the housing market in the short term? It doesn't really affect the housing market in the short term. and oil going up, right? It causes prices to rise cuz the world runs on oil. But it could cause a crash because the average everyday consumer, who doesn't really exactly have a lot of money to spend, having to pay more money on their commute to work or to go nice places or to fly on a plane. You know, businesses have to have people fly on planes that costs more money. Those kinds of things, they negatively affect margins for individuals and for businesses. And you know what happens when margins get compressed for businesses? They borrow less money. You know what happens when they borrow less money? Less debt creation. With less debt creation, you get less money expansion. With less money expansion, you get less pumparinos.

[01:13:24]That's the deal.

[01:13:24]>> Yeah. And we talked about this in the past too. You know, unlike COVID, which was, you know, postcoid, which is a demand-driven inflation, right, where everybody looked at it and said, "Oh, you know, inflation's going up because everybody had so much money to spend and they spent it, right?" So, it was euphoric in a way. This is an actual supply shock, which is not what COVID was.

[01:13:51]Um, where now you have the same money but can do less with it.

[01:13:58]So it's the same money fighting for fewer fewer goods, right? Fewer commodities. So it's completely different. And what that's going to ultimately do is cause demand destruction like Dor described. So less activity is bad.

[01:14:16]>> Less debt expansion is the big one. I mean we the world runs on oil and it runs on credit. And when you get less incentivization for credit or less, you know, room for credit growth, you get that's when you start getting uh a lot of weakness in markets because you start getting less demand for bonds. Less demand for bonds means yields go up, means cost of borrowing goes up and then then there's a panic and then the cost for bonds goes, you know, way up for the actual bonds themselves.

[01:14:46]Uh, next question from Reddit. Has faith in the tech industry become akin to religious fanaticism?

[01:14:52]Blah blah blah. Probably. We're pretty close. There's a lot of there's a lot of other stuff on here. Um, but I mean, is it a a a theism at this point? I mean, it's when you hear a lot of Genpop talking about it, it certainly seems like there's a lot more going on faith about AI than actual, you know, things.

[01:15:13]It's still the same product wrapped in a new thing with more tokens.

[01:15:19]Yeah, I I've thought a lot about this. I don't know that it's religious fanaticism because religions generally tend to be something that sort of counterbalances a lack of money in a way to be like, you don't have money, but that's okay because you have other things in life, right? Your life is not as bad as you think.

[01:15:43]But with this one, it is definitely linked to if well so I guess maybe this is like prosperity gospel stuff. If you believe hard enough, you will be rewarded with money.

[01:15:56]So yeah, I I mean there are definitely a lot of religious aspects to it in terms of believing things that don't exist like AI is going to revolutionize the world. It's the biggest thing since electricity. All of this stuff is religious fanaticism I think unquestionably. Um because it's full delusion. Um but I have thought a lot about this like you look at a Tesla and you look at you know like SAS software as a service where um you know there there are basically scam parts of this but they nevertheless persist for a long time and never seem to actually crash.

[01:16:43]So maybe we can just ride the delusion and AI will become this thing that doesn't actually do anything, but we all buy a lot of it anyway forever. I I don't know. I've I've thought about this.

[01:16:55]Um I I don't really I don't really know how, you know, how it's going to end, right? I mean certainly it's not ever going The thing with AI though is it's not ever going to recoup what's been spent. So we have to come to grips with that. But I don't I don't know.

[01:17:21]Um next question from Reddit. Why isn't Ron featured more on the podcast? He says he didn't write this, but I think he wrote this.

[01:17:33]H I don't know.

[01:17:35]>> I mean, it's Ron.

[01:17:37]>> Yeah.

[01:17:37]>> Who's Yeah, this is definitely Ron. Ron, no.

[01:17:43]We're not doing it now.

[01:17:44]>> He just wants to berate us. He wants to berate us on the podcast. That's his thing. He wants to actually yell at us live and and on the microphone, and I don't want that. He scares me sometimes.

[01:17:56]No.

[01:17:57]>> Well, that's not that's not what we're worried about.

[01:18:02]What are you What are you worried about?

[01:18:08]>> I don't know.

[01:18:09]>> Yeah. The uh the unknown, the abyss that is Ron's voice and his >> I just don't want to I just don't want to um I guess I guess I just don't want Ron to to bore me.

[01:18:26]>> Wow.

[01:18:29]Oh man. Yeah, crush him, why don't you?

[01:18:32]He's right here looking at you.

[01:18:37]We love you, Ron.

[01:18:39]>> Yeah, we could we can we can drag him in at some point. We just got to figure out a way to make it so Yeah, it's not excruciatingly boring.

[01:18:46]Um >> Jesus Christ, that was so much worse than mine.

[01:18:52]>> Next question's from Reddit. Seems like the Iran war is ending and the straight of hormuz will be reopened. Why shouldn't I pull forward into market and go long?

[01:19:01]>> This is a troll question. Probably a troll question.

[01:19:05]>> What is it?

[01:19:05]>> Why shouldn't Well, I think so your your qualifying statement should probably be revisited before working on an answer towards your actual question about going full port into the market long.

[01:19:18]>> Well, I mean, yeah. I mean, even if you're correct at this point, the market's already pricing in that and has been trying to price in that it is imminently opening in the next two days, for the last two months. So, are you early? Are you late?

[01:19:41]>> Do you want to be late?

[01:19:43]>> Do you want to be the last buyer? I I don't know. I >> Yeah.

[01:19:49]I mean, if you're a DCA chud and you're just voo and chill. I mean, you're already fullport long in the market. So, yeah, best day to do that was obviously, you know, 20 15 years ago.

[01:20:04]So, too bad you're late.

[01:20:07]Next questions from the Discord. What happened to the end of the month, start of month SPX charts? Were those lost in a sea of forgotten delta?

[01:20:17]We got a brief pull back to the prior month's high and then rocketed back up again.

[01:20:24]>> Yeah, >> people kept buying calls. The squeeze hasn't stopped.

[01:20:28]>> I don't remember us talking about >> No, this was this was me. Yeah.

[01:20:32]>> Okay.

[01:20:33]>> Yeah, we were talking about how um prior prior illiquidity at the front end had been leading to started month selloffs.

[01:20:42]Um >> yeah, I mean definitely a lot of activities moved. We had a we had like a tiny bit like a tiny pullback and then we just rocketed up on more news.

[01:20:53]>> Yeah.

[01:20:56]>> Well, next questions from the Discord as well. Um, we have no idea who asked this. Uh, when?

[01:21:04]>> September.

[01:21:08]Next question is from YouTube. At this at this important juncture for Volstars, 31 episodes in, why aren't you using a soundboard for things like air horn, sad trombone, and echoing burps throughout the podcast?

[01:21:23]>> We tried that in our uh gamma strike internal meetings and it got out of control very quickly and it's >> not productive. We had >> You don't want to give that to either me or JFresh.

[01:21:34]>> We had to end that actually. It was it's it's hard to have a conversation when all you hear is fart noises and that one lady orgasm sound that somebody keeps on slamming whenever we have a meeting.

[01:21:49]>> That's it.

[01:21:50]>> Uh hey, way to call me out. Girk dick ruining my fun. Last questions from YouTube. Could any of the quants give a crash course in electromagnetics and how we could apply this to gamma strike analysis?

[01:22:06]Calculus.

[01:22:07]>> I can give you I can give you a crash course on electromagnetics, but it has nothing to do with markets.

[01:22:13]>> [ __ ] magnets, how do they work?

[01:22:16]>> Yeah, >> electronic uh organization. Long range electronic organization.

[01:22:24]>> Yes, it is. It is. Has to do with dipoles and stuff. Uh >> what did you just call me?

[01:22:30]>> Electromag. If you learn electromagnetics, you'll learn calculus.

[01:22:33]If you learn calculus, you might be able to use that. That'd be kind of neat. You could read the docs more easily. At least the equation parts. Sorry, the equation parts. I forgot the specifier.

[01:22:44]Okay.

[01:22:44]>> Don't need to read the equations. Skip the equations if they scare you. They're just there for posterity.

[01:22:51]>> Yeah. Or if you're actually interested, >> they're just there so there they can be there.

[01:22:58]>> Yeah. Okay. Yeah. They they're just they're just window dressing.

[01:23:03]Yes, >> it makes you look smart when you have that page up and people are seeing like, "Oh, he's looking at math." So, use them to look smart and when people ask you, just read the first few sentences and then call it good.

[01:23:16]Um, all right. With that, I think it's time to move on to our favorite segment of the day, which is stupid. Stupid bets. Who's going to win? Who's going to lose? All right. JFresh won. You son of a [ __ ] I was just slightly bullish.

[01:23:34]>> Yeah, you just had the highest number.

[01:23:38]>> You picked the biggest number and you won.

[01:23:42]>> Yeah, I wasn't even close either. Ended at 7,400 almost if not on the dot.

[01:23:50]>> Yeah, 7398 93.

[01:23:55]It's pretty [ __ ] close.

[01:23:59]Yep. It's just one of those markets and uh I lost even though I should have won.

[01:24:07]But it's okay. I won't do what Girk does and qualify my loss with all kinds of explanations and other [ __ ] >> What?

[01:24:14]>> You always do that when I win. You're always like, "Well, all your [ __ ] wins are like on technicalities.

[01:24:22]>> I know they're pirick. Okay, don't take them from me. just I just want you to I just want you to have like a solid a solid win that you feel good about.

[01:24:34]>> You want to bet on CPI components?

[01:24:39]CPI components or just CPI?

[01:24:44]>> Uh I feel like components would be more fun.

[01:24:49]>> I don't know which ones yet.

[01:24:52]>> Yeah. I don't like healthcare up.

[01:24:58]I was thinking more like oil.

[01:25:00]>> No, >> so wait. Oil the month over month on oil.

[01:25:21]Oh, like how much is it up?

[01:25:26]>> Yeah, >> because it's the data is coming out tomorrow, so we'll know, right?

[01:25:31]>> I mean, what should it be or what are they going to report, >> right?

[01:25:37]>> Interesting.

[01:25:39]>> That's the whole Yeah, that's the whole >> Yeah. No, I like it. I like where your head's at.

[01:25:46]Huh.

[01:25:48]So just just as a gasoline last month was up 21.2%.

[01:26:08]Which means this month it needs to be up another 10 20. How much does it need to be up last month? Well, let me look at this Gas Buddy chart here.

[01:26:25]Gas Buddy. It's amazing, dude. Uh, let's see. Cuz we went from basically $70 to 110.

[01:26:40]>> About 12%.

[01:26:41]>> I'm guessing 12 and a half%.

[01:26:46]You got that, Ron?

[01:26:49]That's my gasoline inflation number. I'm going to say the the BLS is 100%.

[01:26:57]>> Honest.

[01:26:59]>> I'm saying gas is up 12%.

[01:27:04]>> 12 and a half. Sorry. 12 and a half%.

[01:27:06]Don't [ __ ] that up, Ron.

[01:27:09]>> Okay. Just making sure.

[01:27:12]I see you over there eating that pretzel cuz I'm looking at oil here and if I just go like barrel prices, we basically went up 50%ish in a month, but it took half the month to get there.

[01:27:46]>> It was a growth over time, which shows up as like 21%. It's like roughly half of what a barrel went up.

[01:27:55]And then we're flat all through the month of April. So, I think we got another 20 in us.

[01:28:00]Okay.

[01:28:03]Lastly, 12 and a half. JFresh says 20.

[01:28:06]Now, for the king dad over here with his 100% correct prediction.

[01:28:13]And if it's not, >> we're going specifically with gasoline.

[01:28:16]All types. That's the >> The fact that you didn't use gas, buddy, for that, JFresh, makes me upset.

[01:28:23]>> 9%.

[01:28:26]>> 9%. Huh?

[01:28:29]Why? Cuz BLS.

[01:28:31]>> Yes.

[01:28:33]>> Okay, I'll take it.

[01:28:39]So, we've got the more we've got the two two different measures of BLS will be honest and then the one BLS is gonna BS.

[01:28:49]Yeah, take the L right out of BLS. Love it.

[01:28:54]So, 9 12 and a half and 20.

[01:29:00]Well, [ __ ] You got those written down, Ron? All right. Well, then I guess it's uh it's that time, guys. cuz we're going to miss you. But uh we got to wrap this [ __ ] up because we're going to go and have a little hot tub party and uh look at each other in the eyes. It's going to be great. Dork has to go to dinner. He's trying to get out of here.

[01:29:20]>> I do. I do have to go to dinner.

[01:29:22]>> Thank you for listening to Volstars, a Gamma Strike production. Please be sure to subscribe and check out our website at app.gamastrike.com.

[01:29:30]The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may or may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Gamma Strike or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informationational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Gamma Strike entity to take any particular action or to offer or solicit to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Gamma Strike nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties expressed or implied as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements of information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it is related. is used here strictly for informationational and identification only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between such companies and Gamma Strike.