Is Putin Running a FALSE FLAG Attack in Luhansk?

追加: 2026-05-24

[00:00:00]Is Vladimir Putin preparing a false flag attack to expand the war in Ukraine? It seems like he's up to something strange.

[00:00:10]And we're going to break it down right now. So, you may have noticed kind of buried in the headlines that Russia has accused Ukraine of targeting a uh college dormatory housing students between 14 and 18 years old in Luans at the Luansk Pedagogical University in Strawlesque. And this is according to Russia's human rights commissioner. They claimed that the strike happened on May 22nd and that 35 children were injured in the strike. Now, of course, Ukraine has denied this, saying that while they struck a number of Russian targets, these were oil refineries, ammunition depots, air defense systems, and command posts, as well as the headquarters of Moscow's elite drone unit known as Rubicon. Uh those were the targets hit in the Starburesque area. And I think this is a really I mean interesting claim by Russia, we'll say. But what is more interesting is the Russian reaction to this. So we're going to take a look first at the what probably or I suspect really happened and then we're going to talk about what is the Russian game that they're playing here, the propaganda game. Now, before we get into that, I wanted to mention, guys, that of course we are helping Ukrainian drone units expand their operations here. And if you are interested in helping out some of Ukraine's best units with the life-saving equipment that they need, well, we've got a fundraiser. We're working with Ukraine aid operations to help a lot of the units that we met on the battlefield. Now, we're going to hook them up with uh ground drones.

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[00:02:43]The link is in the description. You guys should absolutely help them out. We are literally this fundraiser just dropped like a week ago and we are almost 20% of the way there. It's going awesome. Okay, so first I want to talk about what I suspect happened. Now the Ukrainians, you know, not just because they have a moral superiority here. Uh but they do not target war crime level infrastructure. Uh certainly not schools or hospitals. Their targets almost always have a legitimate military purpose. uh these expand sometimes to include uh for example oil refineries which are used directly and controlled by state industries to fund the Russian military. It's a direct tie and the but they never target for example civilian power plants or uh water treatment facilities.

[00:03:35]The what what we do know is that Russia has demonstrated that they have expanded and improved on their spoofing counter drone technologies. For example, as we've noted, the uh Ukrainian drone was hijacked by Russians and flown into a Latvian oil refinery. Now, we know this because, well, the Ukrainians themselves have absolutely no reason to target one of their staunchest allies, oil refineries, but the Russians certainly do. And we've also seen the same thing happened as Ukrainian drones flying towards Moscow get spoofed and sent into Estonia. Likely what happens is that these drones uh rely on GPS navigation and if you can thwart the GPS navigation and tell them that they are somewhere they are they are not they you can steer the drone into where you want. If you simply if let's say the drone's target is Moscow well if you simply spoof the GPS and say that taking a hard left turn and traveling for 400 miles will take you to Moscow the drone will do that.

[00:04:42]The only problem is reality might mean that the drone is actually flying to Sweden or Estonia or Lapia. And so given that Russia has done this already twice in the last two weeks and has done so with a wild level of precision again targeting a specific oil refinery in Latvia. Uh it's no surprise to see that a civilian infrastructure civilian target has been hit in the Luance region. Again, I believe that it could very well be a Ukrainian drone.

[00:05:24]Now, it could on one hand be hijacked by the Russians, flown into a school, and absolutely turned into a propaganda purpose. I think the most likely outcome honestly is that this school was being used as a Rubicon headquarters and that either there aren't really any school girls in there at all or that Rubicon was actually either inside or adjacent to the school. And I think that's probably the most likely outcome because again this is the kind of building where it simply makes so much too much sense to operate from. And it is extremely common for Russian command centers uh to operate out of civilian buildings as it is for Ukrainians. The difference is of course that I have never ever in in multiple trips to Ukraine seen Ukrainian armed forces operate in an area or run a headquarters in an area that is occupied by civilians. Never seen it. Not once. I have never been in a headquarters where civilians are also present other than me. I guess I'm a civilian in in those headquarters. But that I think but the Russians have no such compunction. But here's the deeper the deeper part. The Russian reaction to this is crazy. Okay, here is the Russian official state news outlet. This is their version of PBS. As you can see, literally it is the lead story. It is the second story. It is the fourth story below the cryon. Here it is below it. Here, below it here. I mean, you can see that this is a huge amount of ink is being spilled on this.

[00:07:15]And then Russia has said they're going to arrange a visit for foreign reporters to see the site of the starlesque attack. Now, this is of course a joke because this doesn't make any sense. Taking reporters on a tour when they don't even have a full death toll yet. How can you arrange a tour if you're still, as they claim, finding more bodies hour after hour?

[00:07:42]It's absurd.

[00:07:44]But what's even more absurd is that Russia is so offended by this that they've actually requested a emergency UN Security Council meeting which they call a monstrous crime uh and have demanded the UN Security Council.

[00:08:00]Now, all of this is incredibly weird because again, these sort of strikes happen on a routine basis. And while it is heartbreaking that it happens to a girl school, uh guys, Russians strike civilian infrastructure, kill civilians on a routine basis.

[00:08:24]As of two years ago, Russia was found to have conducted about 1500 verified attacks on hospitals, killing 120 healthcare workers. As of 2024, the World Health Organization verified about 1,600 attacks on healthcare facilities in Ukraine. Physicians for human rights in July 2024 uh reported 1500 attacks on healthcare facilities and 800 destroyed hospitals and clinics. Human Rights Watch found that number was about 1,700.

[00:08:57]And this is just routine occurrences for Russia. Again, we talked about the fact that they hit a children's hospital.

[00:09:06]Again, I don't know if the Russians would intentionally target it, but the the difference, I think, is is in frequency. If you told me Ukraine hit a girl school once a week for two years, I'd be like, "Yeah, I think Ukrainians are targeting children's facilities and it's wrong to do so." But I can demonstrate to you that Russia is targeting hospitals on a regular basis and that Ukraine has hardly ever hit a civilian site like this.

[00:09:40]And what I think is even more interesting is again you Russia also targeted a UN vehicle and they uh as part of their human safari in Haran.

[00:10:00]So uh here we go. I I don't think I can show it to you, but what I think is most interesting is actually this footage here. You see, the UN said, "Listen, Russia hit one of our vehicles." And at first Russia denied it. I can't I can't show it. At first, Russia denied it.

[00:10:16]Russia was like, "This didn't happen."

[00:10:18]And then the UN released dash cam saying, "Listen, here is the camera footage of our vehicle being hit." But then, insanely enough, the Russians went out and and actually released the footage themselves of a their their drone hitting a UN vehicle. Right here is literally a screenshot of a clearly marked UN vehicle being attacked by a Russian drone. This is absurd and is a just wild move by Russia, but again reflects the Russian sense that war crimes are just not a big deal.

[00:11:03]So it's very unusual for Russia, who again has targeted civilian infrastructure, killed civilians on a routine basis, is suddenly up in arms, suddenly dropping article after article on an attack on a girl school. Putin said, quote, "This strike was not an accident." He said, quote, "It just once again confirms the terrorist nature of the Kiev regime and The president said, quote, "In situations like these, it's impossible to limit ourselves to statements issued through the foreign ministry."

[00:11:42]And he also Putin ordered the military to prepare a retaliatory response to the attack on the town of Starbelisk.

[00:11:51]And the the Russians claim that Ukraine launched four drones at Starbelisk, though Putin later said the number was actually 16.

[00:12:03]And again, it his statements are just comical. The foreign ministry says, quote, "In carrying out this atrocity against children, the K regime and its sponsors assume complete responsibility for escalating the hostilities and sabotaging political and diplomatic efforts to settle the conflict. This is uh I mean just absurd because as we know Russia has routinely done exactly that.

[00:12:30]And for example, during the the one of the earliest rounds of peace talks, Russia actually uh fired a cluster bomb into downtown Sunumi uh killing at least a dozen people uh following Easter services under the Ukrainian uh Easter calendar.

[00:12:51]So, I point these out because this is like maybe a true event, maybe not. But what it mostly is clearly is true is that Russia is using this as some kind of propaganda effort to escalate the conflict. And I think that to me is the most troubling part of this. Uh, by the way guys, here is Starbelisk. Uh it's a town in the middle of nowhere essentially uh between a swamp and some hills, but the and it's about 70 km from the front line.

[00:13:39]So I I I just there's something weird going on here. Russia almost never talks about individual strikes like this. In fact, all of the strikes against Moscow have received no comment that Putin has barely even acknowledged that they exist. And so the idea, my theory is that this is going to be a pretext for either several different potential flavors of escalation. One is possibly a general mobilization, right? A a a draft that Putin has been avoiding up until this point.

[00:14:11]Um, it could simply be for Russian propaganda purposes to help shore up support for the war as it's as it is falling apart uh for the Russian public.

[00:14:21]Um, or it could serve as some kind of pretext for some other type of escalation. It could, for example, provide a veneer to for Russia to target even more civilian facilities in Ukraine. But really, pretexts have not been necessary for this to happen up until now. There's not really any reason why it should happen now. And so, I'm going to keep you guys posted as we learn more about what goes on here. But again, something weird is happening inside the Russian propaganda space. And it probably is not going to be good ultimately for the Russian people.

[00:14:58]Thanks to Brendan, GS, Alfred, Peter, Gerard, Allan, William, Thomas, Deborah, Jeff, and Christine, as well as all of our lieutenants here folks. We really appreciate you guys, and we'll see you in the next one.