Zoom Stock: An AI Euphoria Value Play? A Proxy for Anthropic? Early Positioning for Anthropic IPO..

本站添加: 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]Hello everybody. So this video is entitled Zoom, my only AI Euphoria value play. And it is a value play. As you know, I don't like to get into a stock that has run too much. And so many AI stocks right now sure look like they're going to mean revert. It sure looks like they've run too too fast, too far, too high. You know, look look at Intel. Look at some of the memory stocks. They've just gone parabolic. And you know, I don't I don't like that. But I do want to get exposure to AI because I believe AI is very real. It's a revolution like no other, like we've never seen. But I want to get to it in a value type of way. Hence, Zoom. This is why Zoom comes in. And you may wonder why do I have Anthropics logo, right? Well, I have Entropics logo in this in this thumbnail because of course Zoom is all about their anthropic stakes. Zoom to me is my exposure to anthropic. So to talk about zoom, we need to talk about entropic.

[00:01:04]Let's talk about entropic. The valuation of course of entropic is private, right?

[00:01:08]So so we can only see the last VCs, but the FT is reporting as of a few days ago is reporting that uh they got a 30 billion founding round funding round at $900 billion valuation. Now that's the Financial Times reporting that. So we need to be very careful because Financial Times of course is known for things like comparing Bitcoin to TE. So we need to be careful to to know whether that's actually true or not. But perhaps another source that you know really is a foresign a forest to what anthropic could be is the only all-in podcast from last week the all-in podcast. Um all of all of the the the VCs in allin seem to agree that Anthropic could be the largest company in the world in 2027. Uh and they seem to not think it's hype at all. Of course, Claude um you know based on what everything I read and based on everything I can see, Claude appears to be far ahead and Claude of course is Anthropics AI. And so um that seems to be one of the hottest assets out there in AI and that asset actually may IPO towards the end of the year towards the end of 2026 when this this IPO could asset could could this asset could IPO who knows whether it will IPO at 900 billion likely likely higher what will it be how many trillions will it be that's the big question and the answer to that question is I don't know I don't know if it's hype I don't know if You could have a Chinese model that gets dropped 3 months from now that could make the company entropic worth less than what it actually is right now. Uh I don't know how much money the application layer of AI will grab like how much applications will likely make a lot of money. How much of that money will they grab? Right. Right now it seems like hardware is is getting all of the money.

[00:03:05]Are they going to be able to charge more for these tokens? Is companies like are companies like Enthropic going to be able to increase their prices when they renew these contracts? I don't know. But I know that I don't need to know because there is a stock out there that has a tremendous margin of safety and that has great exposure to anthropic and that stock is Zoom. So when I first covered Zoom a little more than a month ago, it was trading in the 80 buck range. It's now 100 bucks. So we're up about 20% in a month compared to um what I covered it. And when you take into account the fact that the valuation of Anthropic also increased by about 20% since the last time I covered it since uh since Anthropic became a big deal. It probably doubled in three months by the way since the beginning of the year let's call it.

[00:03:59]Um so so in my view when I look at a $100 Zoom um I I I don't see any any hype. I don't see any uh rerating. I I don't see the market giving them any credit for that entropic stake. In fact, it it it has moved largely along with the rest of the market has was recovered. Right? The market has recovered quite a bit the past few weeks and it has recovered in line with the market. I don't think the market has noticed that Zoom owns to the best of my estimate they own 1.2% 1.2% 2% of entropic. That's my best research that suggests that. I spent a lot of time trying to undig the amount and that's from a series C funding where they had invested 53 million. They they had invested 53 million because they wanted to bring some AI in the Zoom suite, right? In the Zoom software.

[00:04:54]Well, that turns out that could be the one of the best investments of all time, right? Uh 53 million could be worth right now uh 10. That's actually 10. I didn't update that. That's actually 10.8. It could be worth 10.8 billion. Like right right now, uh, that could be worth 10.8 billion. So they they move they they transform 53 million and 10.8 billion. And I don't think that's reflected in any way in the stock price. And actually when you take that 10.8 billion divided by the market cap right now, it's 29 billion. 37% of zoom markets cap is accounted for by anthropic. But of course, it gets better because Zoom has a bunch of cash on the balance sheet, 7.8 billion. That's why I like Zoom. Zoom has a tremendous margin of safety when I look at a stock like Zoom. So, if you take enterprise value, so remove the cash from the 29 billion of market cap, you have 10.8 8 billion of of entropic stake minus the EV and we're talking about entropic representing 51% of the enterprise value of Zoom is represented by the entropic stake. This means that an anthropic adjusted enterprise value number for Zoom can be calculated at 10.4 billion. 10.4 billion. And I I I I'll push the math a little more. Imagine Anthropic actually becomes a multi-trillion dollar company.

[00:06:25]Well, if that happens, so if Anthropic becomes 1.8 trillion, the entire value of Zoom is explained by Enthropic if it goes to 1.8 trillion first of all, right? And can we imagine that in in the in the hype era that we see with AI in the crazy valuations we we see, could we see Enthropic be worth 1.8 trillion by the end of the year? I certainly can.

[00:06:46]And in that case, Zoom's valuation will be entirely explained by Enthropic. But it could get it could get way crazier.

[00:06:54]What if Enthropic became 5 trillion?

[00:06:56]Well, if Enthropic became 5 trillion, the stake of Zoom would be 60 billion.

[00:07:01]Which mean that the stake would be an entire three times the entire value of Zoom. Three times the entire value of Zoom. This is why I think people have not noticed that Zoom owns, you know, more than 1% of Enthropic. I don't think Wall Street Wall Street has noticed. And I also think we could see a parabolic move in Zoom just like we've recently seen for the Space X proxies. A lot of these SpaceX pro proxies are on fire.

[00:07:30]And of course, that's too late if you don't own them already, which I which I I mean I guess I own Google as a SpaceX proxy and I like Google very much, but it's not pure play. Um, sure enough, if Enthropic continues, I want to be in a stock that is going to be that is clearly a proxy for for Enthropic and Zoom is my stock. That's going to be that proxy and Zoom is mostly my stock because when I look, you know, as a value investor, I look for a margin of safety. Um, when I look at the valuation, and of course, valuation is actually 10, right? It's it's actually about 10 billion. The EV is actually 10 billion. So is is an EV of 10 billion actually acceptable to buy Zoom? Right?

[00:08:10]They have nearly 5 billion in sales, 77% gross profit, adjusted EBIDA margin 26%.

[00:08:16]So you're paying an anthropic adjusted price for Zoom to sales of two two times sales uh 2.7 times gross profit, eight times IDA.

[00:08:28]So to me the margin of safety is there and you have the tremendous optionality of entropic and the company is buying back shares and the company is growing shily if that's the word.

[00:08:41]They're growing very very slow. I would never be interested in in in in a company growing this slow but half of the company is growing at entropics growth rate which appears to be a 10x every 6 months. Right? So, so half the company is growing at 10x sales in 6 months, right? That's the way I look at it. Um, and this is the margin of safety in case AI fails. I I don't I I I don't think Zoom will will move much if if if Enthropic actually failed. So, so to me cuz Zoom of course is is I don't think a very exciting business, but I don't think it's a business that's going away.

[00:09:20]I mean, they they they they have, you know, infiltrated enterprise. where in many enterprises um actually they have a big call center business. They have a big solar printer business. Uh people are still going to want to chat with fellow employees. Teams are still going to do it even though less and less. Uh but they'll bring in AI agents to these conversations on Zoom. So you're going to have AI agent in the conversation. So it's still going to see some use. I I think I think Zoom is a business uh you know that that will grow with at the same pace as economic growth. So, you know, not not that interesting, right? I would much prefer even buy the NAS. I mean, the NASDAQ is an amazing asset.

[00:09:58]I'd rather buy the NASDAQ. It's not that interesting.

[00:10:01]Unless, of course, you add anthropic and then in that case it becomes very very exciting and you know they have a few AI initiatives like they want to bring a lot of AI tools. Of course, the future for Zoom is is is human to AI interaction and bringing those AI chat bots in the Zoom chat in the Zoom room.

[00:10:20]They they have a few power users. They have a few people who love who love Zoom and every SAS company has power users who loves them. Um but you know Zoom alone I wouldn't be interested Zoom when half of the market cap sorry EV half of the enterprise value of Zoom is explained by entropic then I'm very interested and that's how I'm playing the AI Eurora. We'll see if I'm right or if I'm wrong but I'm I'm comfortable and I sleep well at night with that margin of safety. So this was not investment advice. This is not financial advice.

[00:10:51]This is only entertainment. I'm hoping you are entertained. Please like, please subscribe, follow me on Patreon, follow me on X. Thank you for watching and have a wonderful, wonderful day.