The Regression Police Got the Commanders, Now What?

[00:00:00]Dan Quinn is the new coach of the Commanders.

[00:00:02]>> Commander select Jaden Daniels.

[00:00:06]>> We're going to [cheering] touch Washington heading to the NFC Championship game for the first time in 33 years.

[00:00:16]>> The 2024 Commanders [music] were a game away from the Super Bowl. It doesn't quite feel like that because they ended up being 32 points away from the Super Bowl as well. But that was about as good of an outcome as you could have hoped for prior to that season. A year earlier in 2023, the Commanders were 4-13 with dead ends at head coach and quarterback.

[00:00:38]But which one is the real version of this team? Was 2024 or 2025 the aberration for the Commanders? Will the real commander please stand up? What? Do I have to do everything myself here?

[00:00:52]>> Did somebody order Donald Trump?

[00:00:54]>> It'd be one of the best sucks he's ever had.

[00:00:56]>> Talk about a quick release. You can never quit. You can never give up.

[00:01:01]>> I think that's what everyone wants to know. And I'm going to answer it here today on That's Good Sports, where we're just 2500 subs away from 880,000.

[00:01:12]I'm Brandon Pera, and we're going fullblown commando. [music] Yes, again, this is a temporary backdrop of having my basement finished. These videos will return to their normal environment in about a month. Also, over at benchwarmershop.com, we are having a sale on all of the 2025 curse logos because we're dropping the new ones in August. So, this is your last chance to get these shirts at a discounted price. benchwarmershop.com.

[00:01:54]That's my merch website, my coffee website, and these cute little guys are available.

[00:02:07]>> Let's start with a visit from the terrifying regression police. They're coming for the Bears, but they locked up the commanders in 2024. That 2024 Commanders team earned the nickname the Cardiac Commanders because they won a disproportionate number of close games in the final seconds, including the iconic Hail Mary Maryland. [music] In 2025, the regression hit hard.

[00:02:30]Washington suffered agonizing narrow defeats that swung their entire season, including a 25-24 loss to the Bears and a 16-13 loss to the Dolphins in Madrid, [music] plus that 2726 overtime defeat against the Broncos on a batted two-point play. Flipping just those three one-score games turns a 5-12 season into a respectable 8-9 campaign.

[00:02:55]Also, the real police should be called because nobody has arrested Bears fans for stealing the nickname cardiac commanders and exploiting it for the 2025 Bears. The cardiac bears.

[00:03:06]>> You okay, Tag? He He's just having a heart attack.

[00:03:10]>> Guys, heart disease is still the leading cause of death in this country. So, both are in bad taste when you think about it. What if we give Chicago the nickname the Chicago cycllospora? because a week after playing them, you get explosive diarrhea. That would finally be an appropriate answer to the Lion's Honolulu flu. End of video. That's the end of the video. I just I just solved whatever uh the thesis of this video was.

[00:03:40]As I think about the Broncos, the Patriots, the Commanders, and the Bears, I've come to gather something about regression. It's kind of like a winter storm. You can go out and have a great summer and think every day is going to be just as amazing as the last. We know that there is an inverse though to summer called the winter season. And while summer is a carefree time, we must prepare for the winter months by storing food, winterizing our homes, and collecting firewood. If you get that all taken care of, you can still enjoy the winter. You can offset regression if you account for it by not being fooled by close wins and continuing to address your weaknesses. We're just one player away. They think wrong. Oh no, I just accidentally took a pylo sport on the Broncos off season, didn't I? That one player, Jaylen Wadd. Anyway, regression does indeed exist, but you need to remind the regression police that you're still going to try and get better or they're going to kick your door in.

[00:04:48]The the 2025 commanders didn't do that.

[00:04:52]They just got older. They got more predictable and they had a horrible winter and they tricked my beloved Von Miller.

[00:04:59]>> I had two contract offers. One from the Commanders. That's why I went and I played. I had one from the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS. NO WAY. ALTHOUGH, in terms of preparing for winter, Von's a smart choice because he owns a chicken farm.

[00:05:11]So, in theory, you'll never run out of protein. Like I mentioned, the Commanders were 5 and 12 in 2025. A mirror image of their 2024 record. And not a regular mirror either. One of those funhouse mirrors that makes you look bloated and fat. The 2024 Commanders had a plus 94 point differential. 2025 were minus 95. One of these seasons you'd think is the bizarro version of the truth, right? When you look a little closer, they were really 4 and 12 with the week 18 win over the Tanner McKe/Tankbsby le Eagles. And the longer we continue, these week 18 games have really become glorified exhibition matches. They're the beef Brady's bowl of the NFL. They serve no other purpose other than to obiscate a team's true record. And it's fantastic that we're going to get even more of them when we get to that wonderful 18game season. It's kind of poetic, I guess, that in both 2024 and 2025, the Commanders finish their season against the Eagles backups. The reasons for Washington's sharp decline are multifaceted. But let's start with the man who made us all believe they'd still be a playoff team in 2025, even if they didn't get back to say the championship game. That would be 2024 Rookie of the Year quarterback, Phenom Jaden Daniels.

[00:06:35]The big knock on Jaden Daniels. The fear that came along with investing the second overall pick on him was his slight frame and knack for taking massive hits and getting thrown around like a crash test dummy. It's always going to be in the back of your mind as a Jaden Daniels fan and especially as a fan of the Commanders who, and I know this is cliche, had to go through the RG3 experience. The parallels though are really hard to ignore right now unfortunately and not that God listens to any prayers coming from Washington, but Commander fans better pray this isn't Jaden Daniels on X in 16 years.

[00:07:20]And we all better pray Elon doesn't own this [ __ ] in 16 years. So maybe Twitter can revert to its former glory. Now, there was a preseason game last year where Jaden Daniels scrambled for a touchdown and all anyone could do was hold their breath. Keep in mind, this was after he started 20 consecutive games his rookie season. That's hard to do for any quarterback, whether they're as slender as Jaden Daniels or as plump as postretirement Philly Rivers or birthday cake Ryan Fitzpatrick. Less we forget the gold standard of thick QBs.

[00:07:54]It's a minor miracle that Philip Rivers was in shape enough to play NFL quarterback with that many birthdays at home. When you think about it, >> therefore, you can together either really try to have a child or really not.

[00:08:06]>> But back to that run from Jaden. We were all holding our collective breath, basically praying he wasn't going to get injured, wondering why the [ __ ] he was running the ball up the A gap in a preseason game. And then two weeks into the season, he sprained his knee and aggravated a hamstring issue that had already been lingering. He missed weeks three and four. Then he had an elbow flare up that basically scrapped the second half of the season. Yes, I uh just called a horrific looking elbow dislocation a flare up. That's how I pretend to be a tough guy. All in all, Jaden Daniels missed 10 games. Marcus Mariota started eight of those games in his absence.

[00:08:48]>> I will say that your second string, your backup quarterback is a good quarterback and he's had some very good games for you. Let's see what happens. Whoa.

[00:08:56]>> That's all right. and actually sort of outperformed him in a number of categories including completion percentage, QBR, sack percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, and of course, unnecessary and ill-advised jumps. If you've been keeping track at home, that's twice now that Troy Aman has chastised a Washington quarterback for not protecting himself. [music] Hey, Troy, how about you criticize old Philly Rivers for never using protection either?

[00:09:26]What in the world is that? That uh and [music] so and um who that sacrifice that pleasure. Look, Jaden Daniels also played through a sprained rib injury in 2024. I note that because it does make me a bit fearful for him moving forward, but also to highlight that Jaden Daniels is tough and it is going to take a significant injury to keep him off the field like we watched in 2025. The quarterback sample size though between Daniels and Mariota is equal. So I feel confident saying that at least last season there actually wasn't a huge drop off from Jaden Daniels to Mariota last season only in performance for those two. It would have been patently absurd to say that in 2024 and you can certainly attribute that dip in year two to the lingering injuries, but it's very clear something else changed after his rookie year. Jaden now enters this season being what we can presume is fully healthy or as close to anyone is going to get. And with that, the commander should immediately uh regain their high ceiling. After defensive coordinators, say for Vance Joseph, caught on to Cliff Kingsberry much more quickly than they caught up to Kingsberry in Arizona, Washington made the choice to go younger at OC and hire David Blau. It never felt like the Commander offense could adapt last year after the NFL took away Kingsbury's fastball. The commie shotgunheavy 21 personnel scheme had already started to feel a little outdated in a league where the Rams are using 13 personnel to punish opposing defenses that predominantly feature the two high shell. The NFL moves very, very quickly.

[00:11:13]Offensively speaking, three things happened. Jaden got hurt. the scheme got stale and the lack of weapons just became obvious. We're talking about one undeniably uh very good skilled player and Terry McLaren. And then to start 2025, it was Noah Brown, Debo Samuel, Zack Z, and Austin Eckler. Z tore his ACL. Eckler tore his Achilles. Debo was okay. That's just way too much experience at the skill positions. And unfortunately, even depth players like Luke McAffrey, who are starting to find rhythm on special teams, also landed on IR. They bet on age on their defense as well with guys like Von Miller, Bobby Wagu, and Marshon Latimore, who I'll have more on uh in a bit here. It's expected though that new OC David Blau is going to try to latch onto that 13 personnel scheme that worked so well for the Rams last season and is probably going to be the overused term and hot new trend to 2026. If you don't know what 13 personnel is, that's okay.

[00:12:14]Neither do a lot of people who are going to invoke that term this season. It just means you have three tight ends on the field. And I'm only 60% sure that's true. A personnel package includes two numbers. The first indicates how many running backs you have and then the second number is the tight ends or how many tight ends are on the field.

[00:12:34]Everything else is intuitive. So 13 would mean one running back and three tight ends. But if Blau is going to be truly innovative, he needs to be one step ahead of even Shawn McVey. Maybe two steps. How about you run 15 personnel David? five tight ends and one running back or 06 personnel, zero running backs, six tight ends.

[00:12:58]That might be too much. Regardless, 13 personnel is going to be the hot new thing because it makes it harder for defenses to blitz and run stunts, and it punishes smaller linebackers and two high safety looks that were a reaction to the 2018 through 2020 Chiefs. Thank you one VC fangio meatball.

[00:13:20]Now that everyone has zigged, Shawn McVey has zagged. But here's the thing, there's not an endless reservoir of good blocking tight ends. If you paid attention to free agency, you might have noticed that inline blocking tight ends like Charlie Kolar were getting a lot of money. He was the Ravens third string tight end and he got 24 mil over three years. That's not a fluke. teams want in to the 13 personnel club so they too can be like the Rams. And when I look at Miles Garrett and Shawn McVey shirtless, I think the best way to be like the Rams is to hit the gym and stop drinking whiskey every night of the week.

[00:13:59]But that's never going to happen. But here's the issue. College football's so weird now. We don't really breed many blocking tight ends anymore. They're an endangered species, in fact. And we need George KD to copulate with Durham Smite if we want to keep the the lineage going. Lil Jordan Humphre is going to play 25 years in the NFL because he serves as a big slot, which is essentially a blocking tight end who also plays wide receiver. This whole trend started because Puka Nua, one of the best blocking receivers in the league, got hurt and forced Shawn McVey into running out three tight ends. And it happened to work really well. So, it's going to be a big trend moving forward, but only if you have those rare endangered chess pieces. It's just not going to work for certain teams, but it might for the commanders, and they seem like they could lean into it. JP Finley, who covers the commies, said he spoke to tight end John Bates. Bates explained, "Tightight ends will have big a bigger role and expect to see multiple sets with multiple tight ends on the field.

[00:15:03]Maybe even 13 personnel like the Rams ran to great success last season. That's exciting. That's what Bait said.

[00:15:10]Normally, I would say trying to trend chase in the NFL is a bit of a fool's errand, but in this case, I think it could work. Like I said, not everyone has these chess pieces, but I believe Washington does. John Bates is one of the best blocking tight ends in the NFL.

[00:15:28]In his rookie season, he had the highest ever PFF run blocking grade for a tight end. PFF has kind of cooled off on him, but we're kind of cooling on PFF, right?

[00:15:38]These guys insist though that he is the Travis Kelce of blocking tight ends, which is kind of like being the Michael Jordan of setting screens.

[00:15:45]>> They ask him to do really hard things often. As a blocking tight end, that's where you make your money. No one does it as well as him. Right now, he's one of one in terms of guys that do that at a high level. He's the Travis Kelce of run of run blocking tight end.

[00:16:00]>> It doesn't matter that he catches one touchdown a season. His skill set is extremely valuable.

[00:16:05]>> Are a very particular set of skills, skills I have acquired over a very long career.

[00:16:10]>> Ben Sonat is also a big-time blocker who can slide in as an Hback for added versatility. Washington also went out and added a piece that I'm very excited to see in their offense and who I think is going to round out that tight end trifecta for them. You have the inline blocker, the Hback type, and a vertical threat. Chig Okconquo was remarkably consistent in Tennessee for four years despite some really rough QB play, but failed to ever really break out. And I suspect for the reason I just mentioned, he played in Tennessee.

[00:16:44]>> We ass. He's sliding in as Zack Z's replacement for Washington. Z was second in targets for the commies. Each of the last two years in Okonquo could have a big year as a more explosive and younger tight end. They also drafted receiver Antonio Williams who needs to be great immediately. If Williams is slow out the gate, then they're banking on trailing Burks. I'll give it to him. He did make one of the nastiest catches all year in the end zone against the Broncos, but that was just one of his 10 total receptions in 2025 for Washington. It would be poetic though if Tayen Burks catches a game-winning touchdown to bounce the Eagles from the playoffs this year, wouldn't it? They also need Bill.

[00:17:26]>> I'm just a [music] Bill Crosky to crack the top 12 at running back. When you look at the Commanders offensive depth chart, it's just hard to see that group striking fear in their opponents.

[00:17:37]But a wellb blocked 13 personnel offense could open up a lot of uh running lanes.

[00:17:42]GM Adam Peters relied on a number of older veterans to stabilize the locker room during the initial phase of the rebuild. It's a good strategy to start with, but these guys aren't foundational pieces. The 2024 Commanders had the general vibe of a young team because Jaden Daniels was a rookie, but they were a true veteran operation. And by 2025, they not only had the oldest average age of any team in the NFL at 28.1, they had the oldest since at least 2012 and by a wide margin. And thank God their average age wasn't 28.3. Imagine the memes for that number in a Dan Quinn le team. The right veterans can accelerate a rebuild, stabilize a young roster, but they have to be cycled out with younger guys every year. Instead, they added Debo Samuel, who looked past his peak at 29. Bobby Wagner hit 35.

[00:18:34]36-year-old Von Miller recently said that he regretted going to DC for what could be his last season. It feels like a joke at this point, but no. Our old friend Ben Solak picked recently injured 31-year-old Terry McLaren as one of his breakout candidates for the upcoming season. That's admittedly very funny, and we do have to tip our caps to bin on that one. Jaden Daniels really covered up a lot of holes on the Commander roster in 2024. I'm more impressed by that season after getting through this video because when you look back at the 2024 trade to acquire Marshon Latimore at corner where the Commanders gave up a third, fourth, and six sixth round pick to get him, that was stupid. He was banged up coming in. He played just 11 games, never really looked like himself, and then tore his ACL as well in 2025.

[00:19:26]This is a team who could have really used those draft picks in the 2026 draft. Sometimes being patient and just holding on to your draft assets are a smarter move, specifically when you still have a very, very young QB.

[00:19:42]Overall though, the commanders got younger. Swapping Z for Okonquo on offense, drafting Katron Allen and letting Eckler walk. Also at linebacker, Dan Quinn finally released himself from the last vestage of the Legion of Boom and let Bobby Wagner walk, replacing him with an elite athlete and Sunny Styles seventh overall in the draft. And around Styles, most of that defense, which was bottom five and points allowed last year, has been revamped with Odaf Ooway, Kavar Shaison, and other solid ads like Tim Settle and Leo Chanel. while a new defensive coordinator in Donte Jones takes over for Dan Quinn and Joe Wit in that department. Maybe it was a year late and you can't control for injuries, but I think the Commanders learned their lesson from 2025. They had a great run in 2024 and believed that because they had their rookie of the year QB that everything else could be patched together. But now I think they are starting to build a more sustainable team around Jaden Daniels. Not a sexy team yet, but hopefully one whose foundation is no longer built on the brittle bones of the pre204 draft classes. They seem to have a vision.

[00:21:00]They are younger in part because they have to be. And I think you see a bounceback year in 2026 for the Commandos.

[00:21:10]Thanks for watching. That's good sports.

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