May 25th, 2026 - Summer 80s Return for SE Wisconsin #wiwx

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:01]Hi guys, meteorologist Lindsay Slater here. Let's talk about what's happening today. It is Memorial Day and I wanted to kind of show you I've been watching this blob of rain for the last few hours and I knew I was like, you know what, I don't think this is going to make it because the atmosphere is very dry over much of Wisconsin and I'm going to show you the proof of that here in a moment.

[00:00:19]But as you can see, this is moving into an area that it's not conducive for this to continue. So I don't expect really any big issues here. Yes, you could get a popup. This is all because of warm air invection that's going to be moving its way in. So, I'm going to kind of refresh this map here because I want you guys to see exactly where we're sitting temperature- wise, where the winds are coming from. So, the winds are all coming out of the southwest. So, yes, even those who are on the lakefront, you're going to see some warm air today.

[00:00:47]It's already 60s in the rap or the Dells rather and also Platville, Dodgeville, um some areas in Iowa, but we're getting a lot of warm air. In fact, you can just see looking at this how much warmth is coming in as we go into the next couple of days. Look at the east co or yeah, the east coast right now is almost in the mid to upper 70s and we're going to see some really nice conditions here as well. I did want to highlight the fact that it has been very foggy over the lake and near Grand Rapids down to basically a zero mile visibility. We're good there. There's no fog for us. It's all because that southwest wind is pushing that out of here. So, we're good there. Um, and I also wanted to show you some smoke. Um, this is basically a a model that highlights smoke that's in the atmosphere. And this time last year, we had a lot of smoke coming in from Canada. But good news is they don't have any wildfires really in a big way right now. There's clearly a little bit of activity right now. You can see right there in Montana, it does actually highlight um some of those uh stronger, you know, flames and you can see how the smoke just kind of follows the jetream and that's what we look at when it comes to smoke. So, very cool to see that. Um, but I also just wanted to highlight the fact that we have very dry air over here. We're in a ridge pattern.

[00:01:59]An eight out of 11 basically for the UV index today. So, don't forget the sunblock. I myself, I'm going to the brewer game today with my dad for Memorial Day. Um, and yeah, sunblock it up. That roof is going to be open.

[00:02:13]There's no doubt in my mind it'll be open today. So, I do want to show you where we're sitting when it comes to our current fronts and everything. East Coast and uh southern areas, they got all of that rain from the past day and a half, but now we have high pressure overhead that's going to keep us nice and dry today. And because the high is scooting over to the east, it's going to whip around those winds. So, as usual, I'm going to draw because that's what I do and I want to show you exactly what I'm talking about. So, as high pressures depart, um what happens is you basically get I'm going to make sure this is nice and big so we can all see it. So, here's our high pressure ridge, right? So, as it's going east, we have those winds that are clockwise. And that's why we have these winds that are coming in coming in rather. And these winds are warm. That's why we are warming up today.

[00:03:00]We have temperatures that are getting into those low 80s today with those beautiful winds. We do have some minor rain chances. Um, but over the next seven days or five to seven days, you can see this map here. There is kind of like a little hole for a lot of southeast Wisconsin. Lots of rain. You can clearly tell just based on this QPF, which is basically uh a precipitation forecast, uh quantitative precipitation forecast. So, it kind of highlights how much rain, not qualitative, quantitative because we're talking the quantity of rain. And this is going to be really peing in the southeast, which is very typical for this time of the year. Um, the reason I brought up the smoke is because I did notice the air quality is in the unhealthy for sensitive groups over the next few days. This is not due to smoke. That's why I brought it up.

[00:03:48]This is more so due to ozone. So, the primary pollutant here is going to be uh, you know, we have PM 2.5 that's currently happening, but ozone is going to be over the next few days. And you can see that right there. That is because we have southwesterly winds. It does create inversions in the atmosphere, which is warm layers of air that can get trapped. So, you do have a higher instance of having ozone in the atmosphere, which means it can be unhealthy for sensitive groups for the most part. You're going to be fine if you're normal breathing person to be outside. But if you do have COPD or asthma, this could be an issue. So, uh just keep that in mind. Also, we are now getting to close to beach season. So, I do include these in my forecast once we get to summer. The meteorological summer is June 1st and that is next Monday. So we'll likely start to see some beaches starting to open. There is a moderate swim risk for areas in Ozaki and Shbboen counties. This is mainly due to excuse me. Uh looks like we have three foot heights. Um the lower 40s for water temperature is probably another reason why this is kind of like a forecast. I don't know about you, I wouldn't want to be going in there right now. That seems pretty cold, but just a heads up. So, let's go over some of the weather modeling just so I can show you. This is uh let's go and pop up HRIP because that's the most recent forecast I have and I don't think I have 12Z just yet.

[00:05:12]So, you can see there's that blob of rain I was just talking about. That's going to be moving its way to the east and it does want to bring us some chances, but you see it really struggles. So, this rain is actually not because of a frontal boundary per se.

[00:05:25]This is all due to warm air invection, meaning I can draw on this which I love the most. So you see these red lines here. That's our thickness line. And we have those winds coming out of the southwest. So it's bringing in warmer air. And on those warm air invection zones, you can get uplift in the atmosphere which can sometimes bring you some isolated activity. I have a cat next to me.

[00:05:50]She's eating my feet. This is sway. I've shown her before. Can you not eat my feet, please? I'm in the middle of something. Thank you. Oh, you must have been sitting in the sun. You're super warm. All right.

[00:06:02]So, we have those basically we have those areas of where warm air kind of pools in. You can get this little uplift of activity and that's why you're seeing these little showers here. However, I know they're not going to make it because we're looking at the vertical profile of the atmosphere. I know I'm getting real nerdy today, guys. Mondays, it doesn't stop here in the weather world, right? Let me uh draw do some drawing for you so I can help you out a little bit. All right. This is what this channel is all about. It's all about science. It's all about me teaching you something. I'm gonna get rid of this cat. So, I'm going to zoom in the map a little bit here. Okay. So, there we go.

[00:06:40]So, this is a skew t chart. This is a vertical profile of the atmosphere. The red line or this line right here, whoa, that's real thick. That's your temperature. And then we also have dupoint which is this guy right here.

[00:06:51]Okay. And we are through all levels of the atmosphere. I'm gonna make this black and turn that here. So right there, that's 32 degrees. This is in Celsius, of course. So we have temperatures that are bordering 30° Celsius. So let's do some math. What's the equation to go from Celsius to Fahrenheit? Well, if we're going to be 30° C or close to it, you take Celsius, you multiply it by 1.8 plus 32, 86. So, this is highlighting 86 degrees. Again, it's before that, so it's probably something closer to 27.7 degrees Celsius. So, I'll do that. Times 1.8 plus 32 81.86. That's what the weather model here is showing. I went for a high of 83. It's showing 82. So, little lesson there. But the reason I know or I believe that we're not going to see rain as an issue today is because of the fact that there is a lot of space in between the temperature and the due point which shows dry air in the atmosphere. So it'd be tough to even get a cloud but as that as that cloud so here's our cloud as it would try to squeeze out some rain it hits all of this dry air and it just evaporates. That's kind of what's going on here. So what you get happening is even if you were able to precipitate anything, this dry air is going to eat it all up. So you're not likely going to see anything actually make it to the surface, if at all. So there's some dry air here that we have to overcome and is too much that I think we wouldn't have any rain. That is a skew t- chart. This also does help meteorologists um during severe weather. We can look at how the angle of this sometimes can be. It can show us if you if you actually notice I'll I'll show you this. I'll get rid of that. You see this right here? That that is our convective available potential energy. So there's not a lot of cape going on today. Um that is what we would look at to see if we have potential severe weather. Areas like, you know, when we had all of that nasty weather in April, it was like this. We had tons of energy. And then you see these winds, these wind barbs. See how they kind of rotate with height? So that shows us winds going like that through height.

[00:09:06]And basically what that shows us is not a very strong day for rotation. But when you have a really nasty day, um you will get these winds that are like crazy looking. So yes, that is your lesson about a skew tart. This is a photograph.

[00:09:23]This actually helps meteorologists figure out if the winds are veering correctly with height. So basically a meteorologist will look at a photograph and I'll make it big so you guys can see. So that's a photograph. Today the winds are are are veering. Yep. But they're real they're not really doing a whole lot. On a really bad severe weather day, some of these I've seen go like this. That is like tornado. That is like for sure likely a tornado with those kinds of winds. Today ours are just like they're just kind of hanging out. They don't veer enough with height.

[00:09:56]They don't rotate enough with height.

[00:09:58]this would indicate rotation with height. We do not have that. So, we are good there. So, that's how I feel when it comes to any precept today. I think it just see how it just kind of dries up. And now you know the reason why I decided that this is why we made a YouTube page. Can't tell you this when I'm on air. I can't, you know, in a two-minute weather presentation. I just say, I think we stay dry today. And that is the whole sentence. So, all right.

[00:10:23]The rest of the week, there is actually a backdoor cold front on the way. See this right here? So, what's going on there is you actually have a cold front.

[00:10:30]Oh, that's not blue. It's got to be blue. So, there's actually a cold front right here. We call it a backdoor cold front when it comes from Canada like this. So, we have that going on. That's going to be happening basically overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. So, that's going to likely bring us some showers, maybe a couple of thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday. And then we have another backdoor cold front that tries to pass through Wednesday night as well. It might honestly stall out and be the same boundary. Um, it's hard to tell at this point, but we have that going through. So, rain chances are mainly Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning and then potentially again Wednesday night. Otherwise, we are rain-free for the rest of the forecast.

[00:11:07]Um, I want to show you we're going to be likely above average. I don't even have to show you that. I'll show you this instead. So, we are under this big beautiful ridge pattern and you can see it right there. Lows on each side of us and a big ridge in between. You know what that that is? I'm gonna tell you.

[00:11:27]Okay.

[00:11:29]All right. Whenever you have big old lows here, you got a big old low there, and you got a big ridge in the middle, what does that look like? Well, that looks like an omega symbol. So, yes, we're under an omega block pattern, which is why we don't have big preip chances because all the preip is happening over there. We're in a ridge.

[00:11:47]So, this means we are warm and we are dry. And that is also highlighted in the CPC outlook. Cooler than average on the east coast because they have that going on. We're above average. And then look at the priest outlook. See that we're below because of the fact that we're in this omega block pattern. So pretty cool to see that. I'm going to get rid of the No, actually no, I do want to put that back. If you ever want to bring back a tab that you uh accidentally shut down, control shift t brings it right back.

[00:12:17]It's my favorite. I think I use that code more than anything. So, I do want to show you the GFS to highlight our lack of preip, which I know we need it. We've only had like 6% of the amount of rain we should have for this time of the year, by the way, for May. So, there's our backdoor cold front right there. You see it going through. I need to move this over so you can see the time. There we go. Um, Wednesday, I think we could have a couple showers lingering in the morning. It moves out and then you can see it Wednesday night tries to bring back. I think it's honestly just the backdoor coldfront boundary that's still kind of there. So, it might initiate a little bit of convection and then it's out. High pressure settles in. It's a colder high pressure this time. Plus, what does this do? It brings in the return. Oops. It brings in the return of northeasterly winds, which means we're cooler by the lake again. That high pressure hangs out with us for quite a while. There's another cold front. Nice little clipper there that might go through on Friday night. I'm jury is still out on how that pans out. And then we have high pressure that settles back in. So the forecast quite frankly is pretty dang dry, guys.

[00:13:24]I'm going to show you here. Here is the latest forecast. Oops, didn't want to make that big. Okay, so we have our 3-day forecast. You will, if you're a warm weather fan, you are going to love this forecast because today I went for a high of 83 being Memorial Day. Uh we have tomorrow at 88 degrees and then 78 with those early showers. That's possible. Um the hourly plan planner for today does feature a pretty dang nice day with highs in those low 80s. Rain chances mainly looking overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday. Again, there could be that other chance Wednesday night.

[00:13:57]Jury is still out on how that pans out.

[00:14:00]And uh let's see how about the temperature trend. Pretty wild. 88 Tuesday, but no big dupoint issues. The due points, I have it written down here, 53 today, 55 tomorrow, 54 on Wednesday.

[00:14:14]So, those are not due points that mean hot and humid. This is just a hot, sunny day. And then we do, let's see, um here we go. There's your 7-day forecast. Not a lot of rain chances. So, if you've planted a garden, you got to you got to do some watering here. You got to do some watering. There's not a lot coming from mother nature here. Again, we just have that backdoor cold front Tuesday night into early Wednesday and potentially Wednesday evening. A little bit more out of it, but I don't think it brings us a lot of rain here. So, that is all I have for you today. I realize that was a heck of a science lesson on a few things, including skew tarts, omega blocks, but hey, you know what? If you if you made it all the way here, give me a thumbs up. Have a great Memorial Day.

[00:14:57]Um, honor those who have fallen. That's what today is meant for. And I will see you guys tomorrow with a brand new YouTube forecast.