GUNNERS SHOT CLIPS : INDIA'S ISLAND FORTRESS / LT GEN PR SHANKAR

追加: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]Good morning India and welcome to Ghana short and chakra news a joint podcast on India's island fortress this is my weekend conversation with sepan and sep back with you as usual on a Saturday morning >> good to be back General Shankar uh and you know what interesting times we are living in uh there's so much of activity going on around and uh today I think it's good to take a break from all of what's happening in West Asia and look closer home uh to the eastern side and to the great Nicobar Island trans shshipment port project why it's such so important so really uh looking forward to this conversation Jan Shankar >> yeah thanks a lot and I think I'm also looking forward to this conversation a lot of people have spoken about it not people have enough people have you know there's of course uh a bit of a divide whether you need that hub or not >> or whether you need it for strategic purpose or you need only it for trans shshipment purposes or both and things like that and hence folks we thought you know between the two of us we'll have a free flowing conversation as to what it means what that damn little island means to all of us as Indians and then we'll take this thing as to where India will needs to look forward and go ahead uh I think with this u your initial views on this controversy and because you've been tracking it. I would say controversy on this issue and the debate which is going more than the controversy it's a debate and it's a healthy debate I might say.

[00:01:38]>> It is it is it is a healthy debate. Uh and uh you know the fact is that the port project it will go you know go ahead regardless of the controversy or the debate and all that but it's important to have a debate because it kind of you know uh frames a lot of our uh knowledge about this project. why it's so important when you look at the debate you realize that uh this is something that I've said in the past as well Jan Shanka I think this is the most important geostrategic project India has ever attempted in the last 80 years the the size the the sheer ambition the location of this is what makes it so important you know the the fact that it is right there in one of the most important shipping corridors of the world like 40% % of global shipping passes through there. Uh and also it's close to so many choke points. It is it is a near choke point. It's close to many other choke points as well. Um and this is a project that I was speaking with someone yesterday. They told me it has been in the pipeline for 25 years.

[00:02:42]We've been talking about it for 25 years. Finally, there's action on it.

[00:02:46]We've decided to move in. And I think that's a sign of you know India's growing maturity, its arrival and you know the fact that we are going to be the third largest economy regardless of what people say and this is a project that we should have done a long time ago.

[00:03:03]>> Yeah, I think this is a project which we should have done long time ago but we couldn't have done it. I'll put it this way >> given our economic heft and our thinking our political stability or instability which we had to go through >> and our thinking and as our economy has risen and things have come into focus >> you our peripheral assets or security or thinking has changed and so this is only part of that natural evolution well so we let's first understand this story what is this all about what is this great nigabar all about and where is it and all that point I want seep said look the transshipment point will go through if the transshipment point goes through the security with it will also come in that's natural >> right >> right it'll only overall enhance what's happening overall >> right and it puts into this thing and why is it come into focus people have to understand it's come into focus largely because What's happening in the state of Hermos, right? One country, one country without an air force, you know, with just drones and missiles can close that straight and not only close that straight but can also close the Babal Mandep >> and generally put the whole world in a in pain.

[00:04:26]>> What can superpower India do in the future?

[00:04:29]>> Yes.

[00:04:30]>> Right now there's another thing people are saying. Look the issue about talls in the straight of form and all that people are worried that look uh you know if Iran controls the straight of foremost there could be a domino effect for everyone else.

[00:04:47]>> Yeah.

[00:04:47]>> Yeah. I think there's a domino effect and India should take note of it and say okay now here I'm going to do something about it. So I think that's the thing and with this uh should we understand the problem before we >> absolutely we we must you know Jungle because you know looking at a lot of the debate around it and coming from very informed quarters some you know naval veterans who I have the highest respect for I think the problem is that everybody sees this through a a straw you know they're looking at the GNI like a small island in the middle of nowhere as a straw but as we've just been talking over the last couple of weeks.

[00:05:25]Uh we'll just put things into perspective to give the big picture first. Let's give the macro picture before zooming into the micro.

[00:05:32]>> Yeah. So this is the big picture which is there on your slide and I'll we'll take I'll take all both of us out of the picture because I think the picture is more important than us. Look, this is the uh Andaman Nicobar uh island chain.

[00:05:47]Uh this is a archipelago with about 500 islands and the most important of course is the middle and man with port blair and all that and the north and mans and south and mans but the strategic importance is in the nicobar chain which is the southernmost and the biggest of that is the great nicobar island where there's this cample bay and you know Galatia Bay and all that. So we'll we'll we'll take get to that. In between the two is the little underman. Now north of little Anderman and south of South Anderman is the Duncan passage and between the little underman and the Campbell I mean the Nicobar group of islands is the 10 degree channel and 10 degree channel is one of the most busiest routes in on in in this part of the world. In fact I won't say this part of the world the whole world. Now if you look at it this entire lot it's equidistant from Kolkata to Chennai around 12-300 kilometers or even for that matter even Sri Lanka right and if you look at it from Port Blair Myanmar is about 500 600 km away Thailand is about 400 km you see the Malaka strait itself is 975 kilometers,000 kilometers and Indonesia is about 165 kilometers.

[00:07:14]actually from uh you know you take off from Indra point which is the southernmost point of India with the band a is just across you can see it >> right I mean that the entire channel is about thousand km long approximately from the Malaka straight channel and at the widest it's about 4 to 500 km wide and it keeps going it's a funnel so this funnel is e you can easily dominate it by you know modern uh surveillance systems, drones and satellite and what have you. Okay. Now getting having gotten this picture, let me go ahead and put something else. I you know I constructed this whole thing. You know what this means physically. Let's look at it. This is the Anderman uh chain and islands to the north, the Nicoba to the south. Now these are the three important points viz China. This is Chakfu right from where they are trying the Chinese are building the CME or the China Minamar Economic Corridor and they want to make Chaku a deep sea port. It's a deep sea port but they want to you know increase it. The capacities today are just about onetenth of what China wants to do and the Mayanaries are at this point of time not allowing them to go ahead.

[00:08:33]>> What is the draft of the Chaku fort sir?

[00:08:35]Uh >> I would know but it's a deep sea fort >> right. I I mean let me be very honest but right uh okay and then the thing is the connectivity behind the Myanmar is uh this Chinese uh China Myanmar economic corridor the pipelines are there and everything is there in fact China has bought up the complete area China owns the area astride the China Myanmar economic corridor >> it is not owned by anyone else right they bought it under different names and it is policed by their own private security agencies.

[00:09:10]>> Right. Right.

[00:09:11]>> Of course, they're vulnerable, right?

[00:09:14]They're vulnerable to tactical and strategic disruption. But the fact is the ownership is of the Chinese and uh there are implications of this.

[00:09:24]>> Then there's this next dot is the location of the Kra Canal or the intended canal.

[00:09:30]>> Kraimus, it's in the Kraas. Yeah.

[00:09:33]>> Yeah. Kraistas across Thailand. There are issues in that. But China has been long trying to you know say okay we'll make the canal we'll own it. Thailand has not allowed it. Thailand says okay you have a you know road bridge off shipment that side and a trans shipment this side and but Thailand at this point of time saying no we will not allow you to do it and I don't think with the way China is going that will come about but the fact is it is alive. We don't know what will happen tomorrow. Okay. Okay.

[00:10:03]The third of course is the uh you know Malaka strait itself. So sitting here right you are actually dominating all these three.

[00:10:14]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:10:15]>> That's a larger picture. And then of course you have two channels. This is the 10° channel and this is the six degree channel. The one between great nicobar and Indonesia. And this sixderee channel is very small just about 40 50 km wide.

[00:10:30]>> Right.

[00:10:31]>> Right. And that you can actually actually you know this is something like the state of Hormos >> someone sitting in someone sitting at the you know on Campbell Bay and that you know great Negabar Island can dominate this passage even by normal artillery as simple as that >> right absolutely no and in fact uh very interestingly south of that you have uh this place called Sabang you know Sabang is a small thing on Pula Pulawi is the island, Indonesian island. And Sabang used to be one of the westernmost outposts of the Japanese Empire, Imperial Japanese Empire. In the Second World War, they had a they had a submarine squadron based over there.

[00:11:17]They had a uh you know army. It was a no it was a naval outpost. So they had submarines and they had aircraft over there. So from there they could patrol the Indian Ocean region. Subash Chandra Bos in fact he landed there in Sabang.

[00:11:31]Yeah.

[00:11:31]>> Yeah. So that so empires understand this of importance of >> not only that not only that even today this belt this you know ache and this area >> there a lot of islands which are uninhabited or rather poorly inhabited where there even Indonesia is not able to police >> and maybe they've been bought off also.

[00:11:52]>> What's happening here? The dark fleet does trans shshipment here.

[00:11:57]>> Ah right of course.

[00:11:58]>> Okay. And one of the uh tankers which USA decapitated day before yesterday.

[00:12:05]>> Yeah.

[00:12:05]>> I think uh two of them star sea star on safa or something like that. One of them was coming returning from after doing the transshipment >> near the Indonesian islands. Right.

[00:12:17]>> Indonesian island.

[00:12:19]>> So right now if you have effective control over this you then start tracking this moment.

[00:12:25]>> Yes. And in the Chinese scheme of things and in many ways the international scheme of things right the this control is important >> because or Iran is going to be involved in this Iran will might still continue with the dark fleet. So if Iran misbehaves there you can misbehave here.

[00:12:44]>> Very simple proquit.

[00:12:46]>> Yeah.

[00:12:47]>> If China misbehaves >> Yeah.

[00:12:49]>> Right.

[00:12:50]>> So you can do you also do it in the dark manner gray zone. Right. Right. So >> I think this is something very important which people need to understand.

[00:13:00]>> Right.

[00:13:00]>> Okay. Now let me take it forward. I'll just zoom out a bit.

[00:13:03]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:13:04]>> Okay. Now there are in the wider Indonesia uh Indian Ocean thing there are three archipelago. The Anderman Nicobar archipelago the Lakshod digogia archipelago which is also called the chagos archipelago.

[00:13:20]Right. And then the shel's maicious reunion archipelago right everything you know it's unlike in uh you know popular conception there are mountain ridges under ocean at all >> right and uh you can't go anywhere in the oceans >> these ridges are important control over these ridges are important for this you know you you I mean I'll not get into that But look let's look at it from the what we talking thean nikobar island.

[00:13:54]Now if you see this this is an important thing.

[00:13:57]>> Now you have the 10° channel the 6° channel >> north of minocoy you have the 9° channel between minikoy and lakshadep right south of minocoy between lakshadabep and maldives is the n°ree channel.

[00:14:12]Okay. Now you have a station at minocoy which will be developed over a period of time. Okay. If you have now sitting on the land there, sitting on the land at great nicobar, sitting on the land and you know the little underman, you develop things. You are actually controlling all moment here.

[00:14:31]>> Yes.

[00:14:32]>> Your your maritime power is then force multiplied, >> right?

[00:14:38]>> Okay. So, and each piece of this chessboard has to be developed. It is just not the great nicobar island.

[00:14:47]>> Yes. This debate about great nicobar island is great but you need the larger construct also to be thought of and all that.

[00:14:55]>> Yes.

[00:14:56]>> Right.

[00:14:57]>> So and then of course I zoom out further. This is the Indian Indian Ocean and this is the western Pacific. Now if you seen the western Pacific the Chinese are in a problem. This is the second island chain. This dotted line the first island chain.

[00:15:13]>> Okay. Now this is of course the you know their uh 10 dash line which is the dot and all that.

[00:15:21]>> Now the Chinese even if they have to get out have to come out if they want to avoid Malaka here they have to come out the Sunda straight >> three of them long distance and they're shallow straits then unlike Malaka.

[00:15:36]>> Yeah.

[00:15:37]>> Okay. The next problem is the entire South China Sea is a shallow sea.

[00:15:42]>> Yes. Their army can't get deployed.

[00:15:44]Their PLA can't get deployed. PLA Navy doesn't get deployed there. They might have be the biggest navy, but they can't get deployed.

[00:15:52]>> If they want global status, they have to get out of this box, this box of 10 dash line and the first island chain. They have to get out of it.

[00:16:01]>> Now, if they have to get out of it, they have and get into the Indian Ocean, these four choke points. And the moment you have this, you're you know, like I explained to you. Yeah.

[00:16:11]>> Yeah. They can keep going all around the Indian Ocean from my side but very little and you know I I go back to this rememberia is an American base.

[00:16:20]>> Yes.

[00:16:21]>> So virtually you know chi uh the Americans won't allow China to loaf around here.

[00:16:27]>> Yeah.

[00:16:27]>> Without Right. And here you box them in.

[00:16:31]>> Right. That's the importance of this whole story. And these are the primary global maritime choke points overall.

[00:16:40]And I keep showing.

[00:16:42]>> Yeah.

[00:16:43]>> Eight. You have an eighth one there.

[00:16:44]>> Eight. Eight. Eight. Eight. Eight.

[00:16:45]Eight.

[00:16:46]>> Yes. Right. Now the point is the important ones are these. This is the Paramakanal.

[00:16:52]>> Yeah.

[00:16:52]>> Straight of Jala, Su Canal, Babal Mandab and Malaka straight. Now you if these are under you know this these through these traits you can circumvent the earth.

[00:17:07]Now sitting in India, you can control this if you want. You can control this.

[00:17:14]>> Yeah.

[00:17:15]>> I'm not too bothered about straight of Armus and Bosphorus and all that. And you know the Megalan straight or the straight of good hope, Cape of Good Hope. Those people can keep going. If they want to go all around the world, they can keep going. But >> out of the major choke points, right, you have physical presence here.

[00:17:34]>> Yes. and you this straight is within your reach. So I think India's thing one has to understand and in this construct I think the GNI is very very important.

[00:17:48]>> Absolutely. I've taken you through a set of slides and all that. What is it that impression you get? What do you your views? I'll I'll get back.

[00:17:55]>> I I'll tell you what you know what you just said uh Jan Shanka what you put in these slides uh you know the choke point warfare and uh stuff is is something that the government of India will never put out in public or will never even discuss but this is the thinking process that is for sure. uh and I was explaining to one of the veterans there on we had this spat on X and I was just telling him look the India operates very differently from the west. We will never announce that we are building a Pearl Harbor or we are building a Hainan SA bay uh island you know where we will project power and maritime power and all that. They will always we always couch all our strategic projects as civilian projects. Civilian first, right? Whether it is the nuclear weapons program, whether it is the ballistic missile submarine program, everything begins as you know harmless kind of project. It starts as a civilian nuclear program and there you have under the cover of that we developing nuclear weapons. Um and I think it is a sign of ours you know becoming more and more confident. In the early years I guess in the early decades we were not even the nuclear ballistic missile submarine program. It was for the longest time it was called an SSN, a nuclearpowered attack submarine which is like a normal tactical unit but in the cover of that we were building a SSBN project very ambitious one similarly you know with a great picobar island project it is actually all of what you mentioned it's a strategic program it's a strategic project but it's been couched in a garb of a trans shshipment port so that it does not threaten countries around the region you know like GNI actually if you look at it that location GNI is closer to four countries than it is to the Indian mainland and if you look at it there that's the star this is a inverted way of looking at it because the Navy likes to look at things from you know the land perspective up so if you look at the location of the GNI um I was I was speaking to Admiral Sanjay Singh yesterday and he said it's the GNI is likely the like the kyber pass of it is the maritime Kyber pass for India you know it is a maritime equivalent of the kyber pass so that's how important how strategic that location is if you look and you've just explained why it is on one of the choke points there and the fact that India dominates this it is going to you know give us substantial leverage and leverage that we do not exist we do not have right now there is a presence there in the kobar islands but it is not a a sustainable presence it's not it does not have the you know long legs or or or the deep uh economic an you know the deep energy anchors that we need.

[00:20:46]>> Yeah. Now today morning you just sent this slide to me.

[00:20:51]>> Explain this. What is the value of this and how this affects the GNI and why should we this thing? Yeah. So if you look at it general shanker you know our nuclear weapons program is all about uh we are we have no first use if we don't have first use which means your second strike capability has to be secure survivable and robust and the only ways you can ensure that is by p putting it on a submarine and putting it out at sea which is why we have a very uh very good program I think it's one of the best scientific you know defense technological program we have ever built in the last 80 years.

[00:21:31]That's the Ariant, the AI Dhan, the Ariat and then of course the Ari Sudan which is going to be commissioned next year. These are ballistic missile submarines armed with K15 missiles K4, K5 K5 of course in the next batch of submarines the S5 series. Now for these missiles to be launched from the submarines from under the water you need to launch them the the the best place to launch them would be from the Bay of Bengal. But all of this is dictated by the range of the missiles. Now if you look at it the missile ranges tell the story. I'm looking only at three missiles now. The K4 is the uh one that is in service 3500 km. The K5 which will be tested this year is about 5,000 plus kilometer and the K6 which is the future program which will come in the next decade is 6,000 plus actually it's much more than 6,000 but the K4 and K5 are really important for us and if you look at the map the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea are the two places where you can launch these missiles from to target both your nuclear armed adversaries. assured retaliation. You know when you say that.

[00:22:45]So that is why the Bay of Bengal actually becomes so critical to our second strike capability. The Bay of Bengal and the Andamcy next to that because that gives you the range to target both your adversaries. So that is why the stretch of water is so important. The GNI actually anchors what I would call the eastern flank of the Bay of Bengal.

[00:23:11]The western flank is of course the Indian mainland, the eastern uh coast of India.

[00:23:16]>> Yeah. This >> and Yes. And you see that thing it's it's a it's like a funnel now. You have the Anaman Nikobar Islands here and then you have the mainland India and >> this this is the great lake of Bay of Bengal.

[00:23:31]>> The great lake of the Bay of Bengal which we need to make into an Indian lake I think.

[00:23:35]>> Yeah. It's not only made an Indian lake, it's the fortress. It is and you know it's your fortress. It's your fortress from which you this thing and what sep capability a nation with a triad capability. See look when I look at a superpower what do I see? I mean let me take this a little different and then we'll get back to this. What when you talk of a superpower you're talking of a triad capability you're talking of a space capability. You're talking of a international uh you know intercontinental ballistic capability and you need a air capability of course the ground capability is inherent in the whole thing that you are a fortress you can't be touched >> now this fulfills one point of that superpower status economy and all be I'm talking the military part of it >> right so the truck capability is important the moment you have a triad capability you have absolute insurance that look what happens now you know even if China carries out a first strike cap uh hit on us let's say right China has to be clear that look there are one or two submarines out >> which we have not been able to touch they are lurking in Bay of Bengal and from there they can you know launch any of those missiles which like any of these missiles and any part of China can be hit right that factor will you know go into their head. So virtually what has happened is with this kind of a triad and you fortify these the the nuclear equation and deterrenes come into play. The moment the nuclear equation and deterrenes come into play, it is only groundbased action thereafter which comes in or small time action or maritime action but all conventional >> that's the important part and you know people say China has the biggest navy and it is expanding and all that and you know I would like you to explain this in this context the >> this is you know Jan Shanker what the Chinese have been doing they've been surging uh these Chinese hydro hydrographic vessels. This is a a from what co shows us produced a few years back but this continues. There is a lot of Chinese research activity in areas which are extremely sensitive to our second strike capability and of course uh like the Andaman Sea. You can see the the the patrol tracks of these Chinese vessels. They are all in areas that would be very critical for our second strike capability in the Bay of Bengal.

[00:26:11]Not not only in the Bay of Bengal if you see next to that the Andaman Sea as well. Now these are areas you cannot allow these vessels to uh come into primarily because they have the ability to launch you know underwater uh unmanned vessels to monitor your submarines. So you know so in case there is a deployment they're alerted to that.

[00:26:31]So they have underwater sensors seabed sensors all of that which is possibly one reason why they have been doing all of this. So Chinese know this know the importance of the Bay of Bengal and the Andammen uh sea to us and that is one of the reasons they have been surging these uh spy ships survey ships because they know that they may not have a you know a manned presence there. They would definitely like to deploy these underwater gliders of the kind that you can see in the graphic as well and some of them have been recovered in near the Anderman Island. So this is of great concern to us as well. Uh the Chinese underwater activity in and around this Bay of Bengal region. That's one more reason why we must be present in a greater way than we are currently.

[00:27:15]>> Yeah. And not only that I you know I want everyone to focus on this this area AA this is very important you know even if you see our notams yesterday we had a test the notams you know they they come here I mean they extend till here generally >> and what are the Chinese sitting and doing here they're saying well >> if India carries out a missile firing where is it going and landing and what is the whole thing and sitting here they'll track the whole uh you know launch telemetry.

[00:27:46]>> Yeah, through telemetry and look the moment you track it through space and through ground means and you can reconstruct the whole trajectory. If you reconstruct the whole trajectory then you come to know where it has gone range what's its capability everything.

[00:28:01]>> So a lot of things can be constructed and reconstructed and of course getting here they're getting to know the hydrography of that area where they can put their own you know missile nuclear and all that.

[00:28:16]>> Yeah. One of the biggest problems China has like what Sep said is that they don't have a leg to stand on here on ground ultimately look man lives on ground not in sea >> and Chinese navy can't enter the Indian Ocean in great numbers they can't survive here and if this is the Anderman archipelago if the southernmost point to the northern mo point is fortified that's the end of the story for China in terms of getting warships surface competence will not survive They might not even go get through this.

[00:28:48]The first thing they have if China wants to enter you know the Indian Ocean with a great fleet and all first they have to defeat the Anderman Necoad for >> Yes. They have to defeat it and they have to occupy it. They have to capture it.

[00:29:02]>> Yeah. And only then they can get in. You you've seen it and you see how difficult it is for them to even think of it. I mean just think you know what does Iran have a few passport boats and a few missiles >> the American Americans are just laying off by 80 90 kilometers away from the funnel of straight of >> that's all you need you just need a mosquito fleet you need anti-hships missiles and mines >> mines and end of story you'll find the Chinese will go nowhere >> right >> and know I I go back to this map in this story. Let me get this. Yeah, like I said, this gap of the 6° channel is just 45 50 km.

[00:29:47]>> So the moment you close this gap, they are forced to come through this passage.

[00:29:52]>> 10° passage. Yeah.

[00:29:54]>> Yeah. The 10 10°ree passage. They are forced to come through this 10°ree passage.

[00:29:58]>> And then you can do what you want with them.

[00:30:01]>> Yeah. But you know here I want to add Jan Shankar that one of the debates I was looking at someone posted wrote an article I think it was a former naval officer where he says that you know the Chinese have never presented a threat what is the need to build this there is no apparent threat over there so you know my point was are you going to start building a project after you see a particular threat emanate and let's not forget what happened in 1965 when >> so >> yeah Indonesia claimed so Indonesia claimed all these islands >> he claimed Sarno, President Sokarno said that the Indonesian, you know, and islands are an extension of the Indonesian archipelago and therefore we have claimed to it. And that is when we woke up and we were startled. We said, "My god, this is uh you know, so Carlo who was the first guest to our republic day parade 1950, Jan 26, 1950, Bijuayak flew him in the second world war named his daughter Sukarnutri."

[00:30:59]uh and this person is making such claims and that is what actually woke us up to this threat. So you know let's not forget this this is just very recent 60 years back that has been claimed >> look I why that much you know I remember one naval admiral of the Chinese he went and spoke in UK >> right >> three years back three years back when you know China was at its peak and everyone thought you know China is going to set the world order and all that you remember before around the covid time >> he went and spoke there and he said look it's only a matter of time before the Chinese fleet enters the Indian Ocean, it is inevitable.

[00:31:37]>> Yes, >> they're very clear. It is only inevitable, right? And if you have six aircraft carriers and you know all that and and they're waiting, they're playing a waiting game. Uh look, they have this place Chaku, which is I've here. Okay, Chaku they have. Okay, this is the the status of chalk and they have hanto here. Today it is not in their grip but tomorrow you know we don't know how things will change. After all they've got humba for the next 100 years or 80 90 years if the geopolitics change they can well have a naval base there.

[00:32:16]>> The moment they have a naval base right then what happens? Then the whole equations changed. You should look at it on the long term. Chalk food today might be you know one sixth of its stated capacity or original capacity. What if tomorrow Chinese invest and Chinese fortunes change though they won't and change and chaku becomes a naval base already. You can't stop chock from becoming a naval base right >> as per because that's a ifmamar allows chakuru to become a naval base you can't stop it >> because it is ah uh you know dealing between two sovereign nations you have no leg to stand on similarly in hanto today the the politics of Sri Lanka are towards you but tomorrow they might change like it did then what happens Then the whole story changes on its head. Then the only veg you have, the only veg you have is this.

[00:33:19]That's the important thing which you know then the only veg. Yeah. Sorry, let me go back.

[00:33:24]>> Uh yeah. Then the only veg you have is this.

[00:33:28]you have chalk food this whole thing and then then you know then you you have to start controlling these lanes to keep you know China bottled or threat is China and also remember there's another thing which you know we need to we should Pakistan is in the process of acquiring eight they've acquired the first of the hangar class >> submarines >> yeah yeah >> are coming in right they're coming in and the first I think is being handed over shortly are handed over shortly >> right and there are eight more so in the next 3 to four years you have to live with the reality that Pakistan will have eight air independent propulsion type of submarines Chinese it's a different thing they might one day sink and one will sink and that will be the end of all that's a different story all but you can't plan on that >> right >> plus the fact that you know the Chinese have started launching Pakistani satellites giving them space assistance >> so as you you know this happens very clearly. What is China trying to do? The chi the Chinese are trying to outflank you through Pakistan.

[00:34:36]>> Yeah.

[00:34:38]>> Okay. And the Chinese have good equations undeniably with Iran.

[00:34:44]So Iran is not your friend in any case.

[00:34:46]So a combination of which we spoke last time the China, Pakistan, Iran triangle and if they start operating in the West Arabian Sea or the North Arabian Sea, right? And start threatening your coast then where are you?

[00:35:03]>> That's a question which we have to answer for ourselves.

[00:35:06]>> Yes.

[00:35:06]>> Right. Right. Look at this. If you have Pakistan Navy operating here at the behest of the Chinese Navy and if the in any case let's be very clear Karachi is already a Chinese base >> right >> at this point of time ch Karachi guad are already available so if they push a few you know warships here and a few submarines here and develop this and they have a free passage out here then where are we? That's a question which we have to ask. It is not a matter of only protecting Bay of Bengal. You have to protect under your Arabian Sea because most >> mainland Indian mainland yes >> and the Indian mainland. So I think there is lot more at stake in this GNI than what is being made out.

[00:35:53]>> I want your comments and views on this and what is the public discourse as you you know you interacted more with the naval officers of late than I have.

[00:36:02]>> Right.

[00:36:03]>> Right. So uh like I said Jan Shankar the lot of it is uh you know people are looking at it through a straw they're looking at like I said they're looking at the GNI project through a straw and they're looking at the economic uh you know viability of the project which is which is a commercial decision you know leave it to the people who are investing it in the port let them decide you know and and I think whoever has decided to take up the port has made that calculation they're not going to invest billions if that port is not going to be viable >> right >> uh And the other interesting thing is that what came out of the government thing, you know, the press information bureau put out a uh thing on a a small briefing note. I wonder if you saw that where it says that uh the great nicobar project seeks to transform great nicobar into a strategic maritime and economic hub by leveraging its proximity to the east west shipping route what we just discussed. Um but the interesting thing is the second line of this uh it says that reducing dependence on foreign transshipment port keeping in view the defense and national security purpose.

[00:37:10]So they have brought in economic security and defense and national security. So in that sense this is a very very significant project and like I was saying you know uh a lot of the debate seems to be going around the viability of the port and there are uh you know oh what will happen to the environment and trees will be cut and you know that kind of thing. So unfortunately a lot of it is misplaced.

[00:37:34]Yeah.

[00:37:35]>> How many uh let let me put it how big is that uh uh >> island is about uh it is onethird the size of Goa. It's about a thou less than less than a thousand square kilometers.

[00:37:48]So Goa is about what 3,000 square kilometers. So this is about a third the size of it's a large island but it's 1/3 and it's only one I think it's less than 10% of the island that is going to be taken up for the development uh the Galatia Bay uh you know transshipip and port. Yeah yeah yeah yeah it's very small right let me back to that you see let me get back to this because getting uh a perspective is important >> right >> this is it >> maximum what it'll be about you know 20 by 20 or 20 by 30 km that's 1,000 km 30 by 30 30 km by 30 km >> yes >> okay in that 30 km by 30 km how much will you take up in this campell bay and you know Yeah, less than 10%. Yeah, >> less than 10%. How many trees will you cut?

[00:38:39]>> A couple of thousand trees. I mean, it's bad that a tree is cut, but I mean it I'm cut. Fine.

[00:38:46]>> You do you uh you mean to say you tell the Navy they will plant 10,000 trees elsewhere?

[00:38:52]>> Yes.

[00:38:52]>> In that area only. You don't have to go far.

[00:38:55]>> You within that area you make a forest in the other rest of the place.

[00:39:00]>> Yeah. or you put it anywhere in I don't think there's anything environmentally this thing >> and as far as the local tribes and all that are concerned you see those tribes out there unlike unlike the andan jaravas and those those tribes they're different >> the nicobaris the nicobaris tribes are integrated with people already >> right >> they're not they're not excluded tribes >> right >> they're not the tribes like the who are in central and north and man whom you can't interact with I mean if you've been to that place and gone through the javas and all those you can't uh interact with them >> they secluded they are kept secluded in fact if you interact with them they get infected >> right >> see that is the way it is so they are not But the Nikobar's tribes to the best of my knowledge I might be little wrong but I think because having been to Carne and having been to this place also the locals interact there are bus services there internally especially in uh the Carnear you know there's one bus which keeps going around the island once in one hour where people keep going and that is I think run on a proono basis by someone uh and of course the uh Campbell Bay and all is a very small thing as as it is.

[00:40:32]There's a airirst strip out there. It is not as >> there's a bar that is there on >> there's already a air strip that's how I landed there. There's a lighthouse everything. I've been there >> right >> it's a very small thing and it's of course I went there for different purposes and uh so it's not as if this area here is you know oh the whole thing will get upset and all that. I I think there is lot of scope for coexistence to have a shipment bay and everything and of course one more thing is you see the thing about this uh Campbell Bay and everything as a look commercially also there is no economy beyond this point transipment point >> right >> okay so there you don't need to encroach ahead there nothing you can't do any trade out there every trade is mainland oriented >> it is just trans shipping yeah shipping containers back here >> and again here this slide is important I want to explain this is the great island now you're going to do trans shshipment from here to all these places which you are doing anywhere from either h you know colo or >> colo or yeah >> portang clang is here >> clang yeah port clang >> okay clang or you know Singapore so Indian ships which do transipment at other places Yeah.

[00:41:55]>> Instead of doing it on other places, you're doing it in your own place.

[00:41:58]>> In your own on your own port.

[00:42:00]Absolutely.

[00:42:01]>> On your own port.

[00:42:02]>> So the I I don't see the economic unviability of this. I think >> I think the government of India when it takes will do the need to one. Number two, if you're a growing economy, you're a growing economy, you're going to do more trade.

[00:42:18]>> You need you need these facilities. You can't say that I will go by what I have today.

[00:42:25]>> Yeah.

[00:42:26]>> Okay. You will have to look at it for the tomorrow and day after. Okay. For the next forward looking project.

[00:42:32]Absolutely. It is it in fact next 40 50 years it's looking so far ahead.

[00:42:38]>> Um like all big projects you know uh so in that sense and you know the other important part is Jan Shanka that it's not just for India the trans shshipment could be for Myanmar as well. Myanmar >> no for anyone. Yeah, >> it could be for anyone. Look, look, it's not a matter of inward transshipment, outward transshipment. Tomorrow someone might be taking something from anywhere to anywhere and they might need a trans shshipment mo.

[00:43:03]>> Yeah.

[00:43:03]>> And look at it. Iran giving oil to China needs a trans shshipment point there to for the dark fleets and all around that area only. So >> yeah, >> people will come. You have a facility there. people will come in the and it's an anchor in the middle of nowhere for many people.

[00:43:22]>> Right. Right.

[00:43:23]>> So I think it is shortsighted to think that this will not have any utility and all that. Yeah. The one point which people do mention and where I think we need to do something about that is the fact that this is the area where a lot of earthquakes happen. The tsunami started here.

[00:43:42]>> It's a seismic area. Yes.

[00:43:44]>> It's a arealy active. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:43:48]Now you have to prove yourself against that. As simple as that. Okay. Uh you look at it. You look look at car Nicobar.

[00:43:56]>> We had a air force base there.

[00:43:58]>> Yeah.

[00:43:58]>> During the tsunami the complete air force base got washed off.

[00:44:02]>> Yes.

[00:44:02]>> Complete. You rebuilt it.

[00:44:05]>> Yeah.

[00:44:06]>> You rebuilt it. So you had Well, that base was very small. So you couldn't re you could rebuild it. Yeah. No problem.

[00:44:15]Okay. But if you're going to make a big trans shshipment point here, >> yes, >> there's a lot of investment and you're going to have lot of you know military presence out there which will be there which will come about.

[00:44:28]>> Uh so you have to proof it against uh these things. Look if there's a earthquake which can happen earthquakes can happen in L they can happen in Himalayas we can do very little about >> right >> right so let's be let's not say that earthquake will happen so I won't build there earthquakes can happen and if earthquake happens in you know the great nicobar island thank you I mean let's accept it >> but if a earthquake happens elsewhere in that region and what is that thing tsunami >> yes >> so if that's a tsunami you have to prove yourself against it, >> right?

[00:45:06]>> Haven't the Japanese proved against tsunamis? After all, Japan is the most earthquake prone area in the world.

[00:45:13]>> Yes. Yes.

[00:45:15]>> Okay.

[00:45:15]>> And if they can do that, why can't we do that?

[00:45:18]>> Right. Right.

[00:45:19]>> You have to plan it in. So, I think overall, if you have a look at it, there's a lot we can achieve and a lot that should be done.

[00:45:28]>> Right. Right. So I thought I'll put all these points across. Your views on this and then >> No, absolutely. So the the earthquake uh point is is well taken and as you mentioned there's no way of telling where an earthquake can hit. It could hit anywhere in Delhi even.

[00:45:43]>> So we are also in the seismic uh you know place in in that seismic belt.

[00:45:49]>> But that doesn't mean that we not build anything. We have to you know uh find a way of you know around this uh because as you mentioned this project is so critical in in terms of its location.

[00:46:03]It's a geostrategic project. It's a geoeconomic project. There is no project that we have ever attempted. I would think that Jamnaga refinery uh that Reliance has done is uh is one such project which has the ability to influence you know global outcomes in in the sense that so much of our refining capacity is concentrated in that one place.

[00:46:25]>> Yeah. But I have a point here you know which you it triggered something.

[00:46:29]>> Now Jawagar has got a global presence the biggest refinery in the world.

[00:46:34]>> Yes.

[00:46:35]>> Okay. People say oh it's next to Pakistan will Pakistan attack it Pakistan dare not attack it because for the simple reason the globe depends on it it's not >> it's >> yeah it is like one of those projects in in uh this place in inqatar for instance the Rastan of >> refinery and those kind >> so I don't think it Pakistan can ever dream of hitting it if Pakistan dreams of hitting oil refinery at uh you Jamaga.

[00:47:07]>> Yes.

[00:47:07]>> Pakistan will have to pay a heavy price for it.

[00:47:10]>> Yes.

[00:47:11]>> Apart from what it faces from India, the the whole you know nations all around will say what a nonsense you are.

[00:47:17]They'll stop giving it.

[00:47:19]>> Right. So similarly here tomorrow this hub will become as important. People will say you can't attack it.

[00:47:25]>> Right.

[00:47:26]>> And that's my views. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:47:27]Continue. Sorry I just interrupted.

[00:47:29]>> No no no not at all. So this is uh uh you know uh and the debate around this is actually it's rather it's unfortunate actually in in a lot of sense because you see the kind of arguments that are coming out. Uh it is no one's looking at the big picture. It's all you know a couple of trees or it's that oh you don't have uh you know you don't have you haven't built up the trans shshipment infrastructure. But I think all of this is important because at least you know it it just tells you that how projects are built in democracies visa v you know autocracies like China where you know everything goes through whether it's a three gorges or uh it's the redevelopment of Beijing they go through without any public protest and all so I think in that sense it it is important it's a little misplaced but the debate and I think it's become politicized as well that is the tragedy of it where you have a lot political parties. The president of the congress uh you know visited the place he put out a big statement.

[00:48:30]Mr. Sonia Gandhi put out another statement couple of months back opposing the project. I I wonder why you know knowing how uh this project is so significant for the Indian economy as we discussed you know not just now but in the future for the it is a futuristic project. It's like port projects are usually they have very long uh uh you know gestation and by the time they arrive it will be it is positioned for a time when India will be as I said the third largest economy in the world >> and it's such a tragedy you know that we haven't built we've only got one trans shshipment port till now vijingham which incidentally is seeing record traffic because of the chaos in the Gulf in the Persian Gulf there's vijingam has got a very high uh one over a million TEUs in April, you know, because of all that and there are containers piled sky high. They're turning ships away now because there's not enough birth birthing space and stuff. So, they're wanting to expand, you know, so >> in fact, it's a great thing that Vizam within a short time has become success.

[00:49:39]>> It has a it's a huge and don't let's not forget the debate around Vijingam also.

[00:49:43]Oh my god, the fishes will be displaced.

[00:49:46]fishermen will be displaced, this will happen, that will the same set of people who were opposing the trans shshipment in thing have now moved to great nicobar island and they're saying no environment will be destroyed displaced this thing will happen over there and all that and then they're saying and the interesting part is they're saying but you already have a port at fishingham why do you need another one >> yeah I I I think this is this is the look this is India this is the argumentative ative India we have to live with >> right >> okay so I think we've had a great discussion should we take some questions because >> yeah absolutely let's >> yeah okay let me get to the questions uh at the outset uh mon school thanks a lot uh for becoming a member for two months and fortification of uni unified command is of utmost need there's no doubt on that >> absolutely >> right we'll not talk we right >> built artificial islands like China did in South China Sea.

[00:50:48]>> We don't need to we don't need to build any artificial island. China was building artificial islands because they didn't have islands there. We have islands. We are not building on it.

[00:50:58]>> Look, you have one chain of islands and manar you have another chain of islands in Lakshodi. So why do you need to do anything else? I mean I you just don't want to do anything else. Okay. Look, the money you spend on building islands, if you put on the islands which you have, you >> Exactly.

[00:51:19]>> Yeah. Okay. If the government doesn't want to announce why are you, it's okay for public not to know all the uh details.

[00:51:28]>> Yeah. We just spoke about the difference between India and China that >> Yeah. Look, you need to have a debate in India. If you don't have a debate in India, then things will go wrong. It's not as if the government can do what it wants. The government must do what it wants and for the good of our country.

[00:51:45]But we are in a democracy and in a democracy these things are debated at some point of time. These are debated so that the government doesn't go wrong.

[00:51:53]>> Yes.

[00:51:54]>> Yeah. What will be the effect of building a large military base and transshipment facility? What will be the effect of damage of uh effect of damage to transshipment facility should a war occur?

[00:52:08]Well, one is that it's it's really far away from the mainland. It's not, you know, uh so missiles will have to travel a considerable distance to target it.

[00:52:17]That's one way of looking at it. Uh and the other is that well, if it's a war, then, you know, there will be damaged, planes will be shot down, bases will be targeted, all of that will happen. So, and you should have the cap, you know, capability and the capacity to do the same to the adversary. That's about it.

[00:52:34]Hey, not only that, just think look at it in the modern context.

[00:52:38]>> Yeah. A >> a facility of this kind will have huge air defense cover.

[00:52:42]>> Yes. Yes.

[00:52:43]>> Inbuilt and it'll have huge capability to defend itself.

[00:52:48]>> So if you have that, the effort required to overpower it will be 10 times more because you're coming across a open ocean.

[00:52:54]>> That's right. Yeah. And and importantly Jam Shankar the fact is that this place is going to have two airports full length runways. You already have one >> in you're going to get a second one which is a domestic airport which very interestingly the wording of that it's a dual use airport >> it will have a it it'll civil and military both >> so when you have that kind of a thing then no problem >> I mean so what if I buy and equally you can hit shai >> yeah exactly or hainan >> hainan So there is you you know you want to trade blows with China can wants to trade blows with it welcome let's strike who lose more who lose more the developed country or the underdeveloped country >> or the developing country that's the point and China are not a foolh to do all this >> that's right >> China are not a fool yeah if it is not too much to ask can our CDS be invited for to talk with you as a host after his retirement. Okay. I took this question very specifically.

[00:54:06]>> Yeah.

[00:54:06]>> A lot of the CDSS and lot of the chiefs are personally known to me.

[00:54:12]>> Yeah.

[00:54:12]>> Okay. And I in fact I've known all of them and I have personal equations with them and they are all my juniors way junior. For example, you know the new chief I was just saying the new uh chief of Raja Subramani Krishna Swami Natan the newish he's 10 years my junior >> I mean just 10 years my junior when I had 10 years of service he was getting into the NDA you know that kind of a thing Raja is a you know good friend of mine I at some point of time I taught him and all that but on principle I don't call uh I don't call uh chiefs or the CDS I up to the army commanders I call GOC and C's FOC's I call why there's a sanctity about these people they shouldn't be in public they shouldn't be called on public on such shows you know I can't call the prime minister here I can't call you know the defense ministers here right because he's much above the pay grade of gunner shot. That's the way I look at it. Your view on this?

[00:55:23]>> No, no. I would fortunately General Shanker, I mean they're all friends. They're all known to me. The former chiefs of defense staff and of course the incoming CDS as well. They're wonderful people. I mean I've known all of them. Had the honor privilege of meeting with them, speaking with them. They have all very fine minds including uh General Anil Chawan you know who he's the kind of books that he's written on the geography military geography of India >> very interesting one of the very rare books to come out of the Indian army he says that we don't study our military geography enough so but I would love to have general Chawan on a show uh you know sometime maybe on chakra we'll we'll interview him you can do that but on this is my principle people that you know I don't call them. Why I there's another issue also. Look, I it takes me a lot of effort to keep myself off certain uh you know sensitive issues >> right >> and they who the chiefs and all deal with lot of sensitive issues more than what I have dealt in advertently I don't want anything to slip up also so that is one of the reasons why I don't talk to any one of them a combination of what my knowledge is and what their uh you know think might uh uh trip some things which are not worth it. That's how it is.

[00:56:50]Yeah. Okay. Uh sir, the Chola Empire in India, India were the pioneers on these seaw routes. Yeah. It's a fact.

[00:56:58]>> Of course.

[00:56:59]>> Yeah. The Cholas were taloscroy. They were a they had a maritime empire.

[00:57:04]>> They ruled very briefly for about 1,000 years.

[00:57:11]>> What is 1,000 years in a 5,000 year civilization?

[00:57:15]We've been here forever. Likely >> just 20% of the time.

[00:57:19]>> 20%.

[00:57:19]>> And they went and they went and founded uh you know the anchor wart and the Hindu dynasty empire. They you know Cambodia, Vietnam, Cham all of those places and they had very very robust maritime presence and you know this is actually this is a point that we should have actually touched upon in the discussion but I think we should mention it here that see India is is a maritime country. We have a huge land border but we are actually an island and today we are an island because of geopolitics. We have two border disputes with two collusive countries who do not wish us very well. China and Pakistan. So that land border part of ours is locked. The only access we have is to the sea. We are so dependent on the sea. In fact, I would argue because of the nature of the economy, the way it's growing, we are even more dependent on the sea today than we ever were in our history because you cannot grow without access to the sea. You need it for energy. You need it for trade. You need it for transshipment. All of these points. So that is why it is so critical. And I keep saying that if you go back to the parliament, the new parliament house that is inaugurated, there are two symbols over there. One is the the chakra the dharma chakra and the other is the chola singal >> you know. So these are staff which went across seas.

[00:58:46]>> Yes. That was installed there in parliament. Uh these are the symbols of two of our greatest empires. One is the the Magadan Empire the Ashoka Ashokan Magadan Empire and the other one is the Chola Empire. One was a landentric empire and the other one is a maritime empire. So for India to grow to you know become uh to achieve our place in this committee of nations you need to combine the forces of two both fact is that we are a land very large uh you know geography largest population on earth but we are so dependent on the sea so you have to think like the cholas so I think that's where this point is >> yeah I think so >> important >> uh general can you elaborate on how Sri Lanka can be encouraged to be firmly in the Indian CAM they're having strong cultural ties with India and yet actively work with China and Pakistan.

[00:59:39]Your view on this because my view on this is different.

[00:59:43]>> See uh my thing is Jan Shankar that you cannot but uh do business with India. It we are the you know the I wouldn't say hegimman but we are the big dominant nation over here in the region. You have to be friends with India. If you want to grow, India will grow irrespective of all the countries around us. We will continue to grow. It is for those countries to decide whether they want to be part of the growth story where they will also benefit. They will also prosper. Their people will also prosper. Or you say that oh I'm going to you know start fighting with them and I'm going to do this. I'm going to host foreign ships in my ports. Uh you know needle India a bit and all that. So that's how it is. It is exactly the way it is with the United States in North America and South America. It's the way it is for the Russian Federation there and it will be this way for India and the Indian subcontinent.

[01:00:42]>> Yeah. And Sri Lanka will also and I I think we have an excellent relationship with Sri Lanka. I mean of all the countries in fact I think we have the best relations with Sri Lanka. You know when we travel there as tourists on work we feel at home you know it's it is so wonderful. The people are so good. uh the kind of you know uh uh the ties that we share with them the common bonds in whether it's in food and customs family values all of that so I think we have a great connect with the Sri Lankans and all of this is I think just little politics they're just trying to play you know one country against the other small countries often you know do that >> yeah you and you know you have a look at the history of India Sri Lanka relations >> you know when the Tamil problem flared up Okay. Our relations went down.

[01:01:29]>> The Tamil problem good, bad or ugly has not is gone is suppressed. Now the relations have come back.

[01:01:35]>> In the period when the our relations went bad because of the Tamil problem and our own whatever right without going into this thing, you found that you a set of Sri Lankan politicians swung towards China.

[01:01:48]>> Yeah.

[01:01:49]>> When that problem got over and things like COVID and all came up, they suddenly realized that China doesn't help them. Pakistan doesn't help them.

[01:01:57]They have no value.

[01:01:58]>> Yes.

[01:01:58]>> Right. Absolutely. And the people see remember who realized this most the people of Sri Lanka.

[01:02:04]>> Yes.

[01:02:05]>> And the people of Sri Lanka rebelled against their own people and their own guys who were elected collected whatever. Right. Who had assert power and suddenly the guys who replaced those people in power saw looked around and said look who's there to help only India. And India helped them. India helped Sri Lanka at its darkest point three years back when that mind raj paka was thrown out and you know >> and this uh brother was also thrown out okay and then we stood by them we stood by them and they got their IMFs loan we virtually guaranteed that loan no one else did >> and even now when the whole world has got a oil problem Sri Lanka doesn't have an oil problem >> why because of India >> so we have actually brought them back into our fold.

[01:02:55]>> Yeah.

[01:02:56]>> Their thing with they're stuck with China for the next 95 years. There's no choice with them. They humba is Chinese.

[01:03:05]>> Yeah.

[01:03:06]>> They have no choice. But I don't think they will go against India for China.

[01:03:11]Pakistan they realize they'll have see as a intern as a sovereign nation they will have some relations with Pakistan but how much those relations are all are question mark.

[01:03:22]So we'll leave it there.

[01:03:24]>> Okay. Uh I understand there is one more big trans shipment point already under construction in the vicinity of uh kindly explain its strategic importance too. Uh look yeah any views on this sep?

[01:03:40]>> Well I you know the more transip and ports the better it is for us. We need to have one on both sides of the Indian coast in fact.

[01:03:48]>> Yeah. Yeah. And you know if it is there it's good because part of that saga mala and everything you need more you need more as simple as that you want to be a more uh uh you want to improve your economy you need more ports big ports as simple as that okay does general army does Indian army participate in Moscow victory day parade of course it does we've already done it I mean I just thought I'll tell you this is more of a information we have done it if you go on the net and find out you'll see Indian army and the Indian air force marching down the red square >> red square >> right and with the Kremlin in the background what is the significance of India's missile test yesterday is it agni 6 I don't know whether it's a six I don't know what the test actually is but without saying that what will be the significance of a test which goes for 300 3,000 4,000 kilometers on the >> yeah well it is an ICBM test no doubt about it if you see that trajetory of that weapon itself >> uh it It's it's a it's a really long uh one >> there. No doubt. So look, there's a huge thing. Uh let let's put it this way. The details have not come out. Let the details come out. We'll then talk of it.

[01:05:03]We'll discuss maybe next week by then some details will come. We might be just talking of all the messiah and everything, you know.

[01:05:11]>> Come out then we will know what it is.

[01:05:13]If they don't come out, we will I think we will still know what it is.

[01:05:18]and we'll discuss it. We I'm not shy of discussing it, right? We'll discuss because it's good to good for people to understand what we have done and where do we stand and it ties in with what uh you know earlier SEP was talking about the circles he showed K5 K6 K7 K10 whatever they are.

[01:05:35]>> Okay. Uh as reiterated by you many times at the end keys to solving China issue is always in park. Why are we not aggressively looking into it or solving this geopolitical puzzle called park?

[01:05:54]>> Yep. Your views?

[01:05:56]>> Well, uh very briefly, you know, that's what Pakistan exists for. Pakistan exists to rent out its services to whoever is there to pay the money, to pay the bills, whether it is the West, um the United States or it's China. And in this case it's playing a game one against the other and making some money out of it. So we can't solve this uh problem as long as you know Pakistan exists and it's available for rent.

[01:06:22]Maybe if you know you have a civilian leadership there probably things might be a little better but not with a military government in power.

[01:06:30]>> Yeah. Uh you know I was just thinking in the morning and and probably in the evening we'll discuss this on Ghana short. I'll go solo on this. See Pakistan has an access with whom all just think there's a Pakistan, China, Turkey access which came out during Obsidian yesterday. The DGM was >> they admitted. Yes. Yes.

[01:06:51]>> There's a Pakistan Saudi Arabia Turkey access. That's very clear. There's a park China access on its own. There is a park USA access which is operating on each axis has its own wavelength.

[01:07:07]>> Yeah. There's a new park Iran China axis coming about. Park Iran China Russia axis coming about.

[01:07:14]Each of these axis is operating at a different wavelength and each of these taxes has a connotation for the security and safety and well-being of Pakistan and Aim.

[01:07:26]>> Right.

[01:07:27]>> Okay.

[01:07:28]To for the regime survival, he needs this axis.

[01:07:33]Okay. Now how how do you he's not he's securing himself against you.

[01:07:41]Yeah I never thought of that. So all these accesses are bas basically of preserving Munir's power >> regime regime uh thing so that you don't attack him and destabilize it. So you how do you deal with it is a question because the moment he's made this axis if you see he's made himself impregnable. Yeah.

[01:08:01]>> His power is impregnable and I'll talk of it more in the evening 8:00.

[01:08:06]>> Yes.

[01:08:07]>> Okay.

[01:08:09]Right. In your opinion, is stealth aircraft technology overheated given sign heat signature? Should India invest more to catch up your views?

[01:08:18]>> Absolutely. In including satellite technology for uh you know remote sensing stealth aircraft from uh low earth orbit. Yeah, you need to and let me also put a thought and I'm going to do a program on this in detail one of these days. I've already touched upon it when I did a podcast with SEP and the Air Force, you know, was quite upset with me. The days of fighter aircraft are over. I'm making a statement here.

[01:08:46]They're over.

[01:08:48]You keep spending on stealth.

[01:08:51]Stealth is not impregnable.

[01:08:54]>> Yeah.

[01:08:55]>> Right. At the end of the day, if you have stealth, you have a high powered aircraft, long range, everything you that the engine will always have a heat signature. The moment you have a heat signature is detectable, right? It is it is blind on our part to think that the stealth aircraft is stealthy.

[01:09:13]>> Is is invisible.

[01:09:15]>> Invisible. It is not stealth aircraft.

[01:09:19]>> It is visible.

[01:09:20]>> Okay.

[01:09:21]>> Now, having said that, where does the stealth come from? It's the stealth comes from the fact that if you fire a missile at it and if you're firing based on its RCS and all that it might miss the mark but if you have a heat seeeking element of it it'll catch >> IRST basically >> IRS and if you go back oh look IR thing you have to go back into the history what happened during the Israel and Egypt war the Yamapour war how did Egypt surprise Israel by firing that little shoulder fired Russian missile. What was it based on? IR. What did it track onto?

[01:10:01]It tracked home on to the rear end of a aircraft.

[01:10:07]Simple. Iran uh Israel lost a considerable amount of aircraft on the in the first 48 hours of Yamapour war.

[01:10:15]If you see it's only then they came out with different tactics. They invented flares. They did cross maneuvers. two aircraft going. They said, "Okay, if there's a chap who's fired, they had ground spotters who said who fire. Look, there's a fire coming." So, two aircraft going, crossing and confusing the missile and all that. All that they had to do on a single shoulder fired stupid missile with the IR head, >> right? S7, the basically the first generation SAM.

[01:10:44]>> First generation SAMs pads. Yeah.

[01:10:47]>> You're going back to when? 70s. Okay.

[01:10:50]So, so stealth aircraft is but today look at the stealth aircraft and the cost involved is it worth having that having it despite having a stealth aircraft you can't cross over to the enemy side especially in our context because of the intense AD environment if there is if your stealth aircraft is not going to cross over the border >> why do you have aircraft >> manned aircraft >> manned aircraft you do unmanned aircraft you do anything else you can do and hasn't the Iran war proven it so we have to rethink and uh I think so and we discussed this and maybe one of these days we have to redisuss this story again >> yeah let's let's go over that yeah >> okay and and I I must tell everyone you know I'm right doing a research on uh groundbased precision fires deep strike precision fires and that research has led me to some eyeopening conclusions.

[01:11:56]You know, if you are going to keep developing aircraft which are so costly or foolish, you can develop it. You need it. It's not that you don't need. You need a balance in everything. But if you don't have aircraft, it doesn't matter.

[01:12:08]Hasn't Iran proved it, >> right?

[01:12:11]>> Has proven?

[01:12:12]>> Iran has also taken a heavy beating. I mean, they've they've been bombed 15,000 sorties. They've flown into That's because they didn't have an ad.

[01:12:20]>> A ad. Yeah, you didn't have AD.

[01:12:22]>> Just think if Iran had a effective AD, air defense cover, right? And with the missiles they have, then this entire war would have changed.

[01:12:36]It would be America which would be hiding.

[01:12:40]>> The problem for Iran in this war, why they are where they are is because they didn't have AD. dependent on the Chinese air discipants which lost them >> which were Yeah.

[01:12:50]As was the case in Venezuela and in Pakistan >> everywhere. Yeah.

[01:12:54]>> Okay. Yeah. Yeah. India should have opted for type 214 instead of scorpion long back. German fuel cell AIP is superior to everything else. Sign the deal soon. Your view?

[01:13:07]>> Because I look at submarines so closely.

[01:13:09]I can tell you that we should have looked at our own program instead of running after France and Germany and all that. If you you know look at artillery only running after all these foreign programs where we were we finally decided to develop our own and today we are where we are because we invested in our own technology.

[01:13:27]>> I am completely in agreement with you. I can tell you watch it on whoever you want me to swear on. There was a day in my life, there was a day in my life, you know, I was making the profile for artillery and I was to give it at that time and I was only a brigadier at that time and I was to give give a presentation to the chief, right? And when I made that assessment, this was in 2008.

[01:13:58]I said, "What is this? Are we an artillery or a artillery without guns?

[01:14:06]This was my assessment and I said there is no way we going ahead. We had got stuck. There was no road ahead. We were at our weakest point at that point of time if Pakistan or China had attacked us. I don't know how as a nation we would have responded beyond a point. We would have responded but beyond a point I don't know. And at that point of time I said look I'm going to do whatever I can in my life to change this equation because when you do this analysis then you realize industry capability everything and all. Luckily I came back after some time as the uh you know additional director general of artillery after >> after commanding a artillery division after having known what the requirements of and when you're commanding an artillery division you're commanding smudge bramos and all that you're looking at one of the first guys who commanded a a bramos unit you know as part at a senior level >> right >> the first bramos unit came in you Okay.

[01:15:14]>> Early 2000s. I think this was >> mid 2000.

[01:15:18]>> Unit came up in mid 2000 >> but it got formally integrated into artillery division around 200910.

[01:15:27]>> Okay. And then we had we had Paka we had all these. The first Paka firing operational firing I did in my division.

[01:15:36]Right. And it was a mishap. It was a mishap. Let me also tell you this. It was a mishap. The launcher just burst, the missile just burst operational. So we've gone through all that. But I took the decision that Indian artillery will be Indian, not British, not Russian, not UK, not whatever. And we worked to it.

[01:16:02]We turned the whole thing around. I mean, I've told you we've discussed this. So you have to believe in yourself and do things yourself. So I am of the firm opinion that unless leaders come up who believe in themselves who believe in the system who make things happen >> IDM yeah >> yeah I I'll not go into IDM and all this def IDEX PEX all that I will these are all jargon nonsense rules are nonsense all these DAP and all that are useless >> no I meant indigenously designed developed manufactured can be used You have to have only one. You have to have No, it's a fact. I'm saying all these rules, regulations and all are things which you are there. I mean just disregard them. You need intent and the clarity of thought that I will do what I have to do. It is not only I who did it.

[01:17:00]Let me also say that we were a chain of DG artilleries uh you know about four or five of us who said we have hit the end of the road there's nowhere we can go and self-help is the best help.

[01:17:14]>> Yes.

[01:17:15]>> And it happened. I I am sorry I triggered.

[01:17:19]>> No very clearly this is something that's very close to your heart for good reason and I think that is a story that we must do separately at some point. this story of Indian artillery, how we turn the corner on uh you know going from imports to uh you know self-sufficiency.

[01:17:36]>> Yeah. Then the last thing is uh can India denuclearize Pakistan or is Pakistan's nuclear arsenal now a permanent strategic reality that forces every India conflict into stalemate by limiting India's ability to escalate?

[01:17:53]Yep.

[01:17:57]your view.

[01:17:59]>> Well, I think we've demonstrated with Synindur that we have the capability to inflict damage below the nuclear threshold. Uh but uh you know denuclearizing Pakistan and all that that is a very that's a different completely different kettle of fish. I I I don't think we're even going there yet. But if this is taken the decision is taken at some future point then I think things should be done but I think you should start planning for that contingency.

[01:18:30]>> Look uh every India Pakistan conflict will end in a stalemate.

[01:18:36]>> Yeah, >> I'll tell you why nuclear factor. Yeah, >> it's not the nuclear factor. It's the the nature of the nation.

[01:18:43]>> You might have a military victory.

[01:18:46]Every time we have fought with Pakistan, we have had a military victory. But at the end of the day what happens is that the Pakistan army becomes stronger.

[01:18:57]>> Right? Of course that that paradox we've discussed you explain that >> whether the chap has got a nuclear weapon or not it doesn't matter.

[01:19:07]You don't have any method of overturning this stalemate. That's the first part.

[01:19:11]The second part is you look at the trajectory of this Pakistan construct when why did Pakistan come about?

[01:19:19]Pakistan was not a construct or the way it came about as a upheaval from you know the masses. It was not a cultural thing. It was not a it was just some ideas which were there and the British >> intellectuals yeah it was the intellectuals who floated the idea and you know >> intellectuals a few guys who thought some way floated the idea and the Britishers and the Americans took that idea up and converted and created Pakistan it's not a natural entity >> it's not it's not it's an artificial construct >> artificial construct with full of fractures >> took it took them 25 years for to break into that artificial construct broke into >> two nation theory was yeah broken in >> the two nation theory and all that I'm just talking of Pakistan pure absolute terms it broke and you caught out with uh you know came out with Bangladesh and Bangladesh is where it is now you look at Pakistan on its own it has got too many fishes eventually it'll break it is natural for to break. How long will the Pakistan army get keep holding on to it?

[01:20:37]The way to weaken the Pakistan army is political weakening not military weakening.

[01:20:43]When that political weakening happens and Pakistan army breaks in some manner, Pakistan will break. And that was the danger which was there on 9th of May on 2023 which this fellow Aimuner headed off by his actions right otherwise Pakistan that day would have broken if the way things were going because there was some kind of a mutiny within Pakistan army and if that mutiny had caught fire end of Pakistan but but how long can he take it further that is the question to be seen and when that happens Pakistan's nuclear rational will anyway break up.

[01:21:24]It's a matter of thinking. I mean I don't know whether this line of thought of mine resonates with what you're thinking.

[01:21:30]>> Yeah, absolutely. I think it's just it is the Pakistan army that's holding the country together right now. Uh because they've not allowed the the political process to you know carry on and they converted democracy into a a bonsai democracy. It's a bonsai democracy and this Pakistan military is this gigantic tree under whose shade nobody grows. So they will not allow anyone to you know grow, flourish, prosper whatever. So uh and and they are holding the country together and as you said that there are these fiperous tendencies baluch might break away the pun will break away. So it's a matter of time before Pakistan then becomes just Punjab and probably Sind.

[01:22:11]>> We'll see even that might not survive, >> right? We'll see how it goes. Last question for the day. The purpose of fifth and sixth gen of its is disagregated collaborative air operations. Stealth is secondary. This is kept on the low for a purpose. Well, you're just making a statement. That's your opinion. Um your any view on this Sep?

[01:22:35]>> Nothing. Well, I I think it's you you need both. You need manned and unmanned.

[01:22:40]And that's true. That's a fact. But like you've said, the kind of nature of groundbased air defenses, the kind of sophistication uh that is coming about uh the the the you know, stealth aircraft will have it very we'll find it very difficult to keep pace with the kind of you know developments. say developments on the ground are you know overtaking the developments that it will take to produce truly stealthy invisible you know uh man fighter aircraft. Yeah it'll become difficult for them to and we saw example of that also in opind where you know we had aircraft but we didn't cross into the thing because you had the cap you had the weapons to strike beyond visual range uh without crossing the international borders. So I think we will see this and it's it's not just us, it's the US as well. If if Iran, like you said, had a very robust groundbased air defense, you would see the US staying miles away.

[01:23:40]Yeah, I think we've had a uh anything else you want to add other we'll wrap up and yeah and let's look out for uh yeah so thanks very much again General Shankar for putting things into perspective that talk on the great Nikobar Island project uh you know in this conversation we try to give you the big picture of why GNI see GNI is a dot in the ocean when you look at it it's important to zoom out look at the big picture uh it's not just about one island or one project or one trans shshipment point it is the larger big picture grand strategy where it plays it's a very critical part of a larger chessboard of Indian grand strategy that will unfold in the decades ahead as India's military economic power grows and it will keep growing and you need uh you need those points on the global chessboard code like the great nicobar island. It is actually our foot in the uh ASEAN door. It is so important to our act east policy. This is we've actually been acting east for the longest time.

[01:24:50]But I think now with this one pro project, we would have acted in a way that we haven't in 80 years.