WILL BITCOIN DUMP LOWER NOW? (BTC Today)

[00:00:03]Good morning, everybody. Welcome back to Selenik Crypto. Hope you're all doing great and welcome to this new video right here. On Bitcoin, we're going to do a full update on the current situation. We'll do a bit of a bit of an update as well on what I said yesterday in the middle of the day market update.

[00:00:17]You you don't have to have watched that.

[00:00:19]Definitely not. We'll go over all the relevant fundamentals, of course, in this video as well.

[00:00:23]Um but but yesterday we spoke about the situation for Strategy and their their stretch product and how that was doing and how that was a problem for Strategy and therefore also for Bitcoin and and yesterday we saw a continuation of that and that's also what pushed the markets down.

[00:00:38]What caused us to ultimately break down because that has happened. We have lost the bull bullish structure.

[00:00:44]Talk about that a little bit what that implies right now.

[00:00:47]Um [snorts] but basically we talk about everything you need to know. I mean the US markets today are closed, so be aware of that.

[00:00:53]Um and it seems to me that it's basically an early weekend. I mean obviously the European and the Asian markets today have been open and especially during the Asian session we actually did see some volatility, but I would argue and uh the structure very much in is is in line with that uh that [snorts] today most likely we're going to remain relatively stable. I I don't necessarily think we're going to drop down much much lower um nor do I think that we're going to see major recoveries from here. It's uh right now the the volume is most likely going to get quite low and unless we see a major fundamental change, I I don't think we're going to see a a major move. Um but um but yeah, so so the major fundamental events that was already unfolding yesterday and which made me say in the in the video that I thought it was most likely we were going to see a move into the downside is the fact that Stretch is is right now trading at 88.8.

[00:01:45]Yesterday [snorts] it pushed down lower even, but this what it basically implies is that Strategy can no right so so Michael Saylor can can no longer easily raise money without well basically in the best way they can raise money, which is this product. They can no longer easily raise money to buy more Bitcoin. Um and they have about like they do have to pay dividends on this and they have about 7 months of of runway left if they don't sell Bitcoin. So this being this trading lower than $100, which it should be at, means that the probability or the risk that they're going to sell Bitcoin is higher. I don't necessarily think they're going to do that, but it just increases the risk. Um so what that means technically is that we have lost like we already lost the previous quarter value area low right here after the FOMC meeting. So we already were not extremely bullish, but yesterday I said, "Okay, we can actually reclaim that still." But I would argue because of this we've been unable to do that. We lost this swing low right here that we created on Sunday. So right right now the structure is just no longer bullish. The big question is okay, is the structure then bearish or is it just neutral? And I'd have to say and honestly the fact that the US markets today are closed kind of works well for this. Um because stretch is also closed, right? So so we're not going to see whether this is going to trade lower or whether it's going to work over higher. But that means that ultimately we're we're not going to get any interference from from the equity markets. Um which which means that right now we're trading technically in the two-week range or I should actually extend this slightly. So the two-week range is sitting right here between 63,800 and and 60,500. So we're trading well within that. We actually do have some decent support in that as well. And um fundamentally there there's not really any reason or or really not any new developments that can push us down lower. We're definitely not bullish.

[00:03:35]Like I I don't see any fundamentals good enough to expect us to recover here, but ultimately to to to to get a bearish breakdown we'd need to see a breakdown below 60,500.

[00:03:49]And I really don't see a catalyst for that. I think the order flow is not amazing. Funding rates were quite high for the majority of the time and you can see that the CBD is pushing down and the price is just clearly following that.

[00:04:00]So, there's nothing really bullish about Bitcoin at this point of time, but there's nothing bearish enough to push us down lower. So, I'd say it's most likely that we're going going to get weekend type price action.

[00:04:13]I think something like this is most likely so that we're going to test uh those those gaps into the upside and then those levels into the upside between 63 and a half and 64 and a half thousand. We'll reject there unless we get some good news, but I wouldn't expect that and then slowly I think we're going to push down lower into 61,600 and and 60,500.

[00:04:33]Uh we still have a Coinbase Bitcoin discount so that is bearish, but on the other hand uh we actually do have a pretty uh thick bit size bit size skew if you look at the order book depth. Um so, it's it's quite mixed, right? And if it's quite mixed, then um and the fundamentals are closed today basically.

[00:04:49]I'd argue it's most likely we're just going to stay within this range. So, very boring, but that seems to be most likely for now. So, thank you for watching everybody. Have a great Friday.

[00:04:58]Have a great weekend in advance if this is the last video you'll watch, but for now take care and bye.