BREAKING: IRGC Fires Missiles at U.S. Base as Gulf Tensions Escalate

追加: 2026-05-29

[00:00:00]So, this is the second day in a row where there's been explosions at the port city of Bonderabas in Iran where the United States conducted what they're referring to as self-defense actions.

[00:00:11]There's some Ebola stuff going on in the world. Shahid type UAVs or Jiren 2 type UAVs crashing in Ukraine. Talk a little bit about the straight of form. A little bit about Iran's Parliament National Security Commission. Some interesting things with armored personnel carriers in Lithuania and a few other things. So, let's start at the top. The information war is so crazy and all over the place with the peace talks between the United States and Iran because number one, the Iranian leadership is so fractured.

[00:00:40]You've got the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps saying one thing on one hand and then you've got like the elected state leadership in Iran saying something else and they're constantly clashing and like fighting over who gets to actually make the decision. And then on top of that, there's just a bunch of misinformation being pushed around by tons of different people because people like to cause chaos, not discord, but chaos, right? But anyway, on the 27th of May of 2026, Iranian state television and financial outlet 8A online reported that Thrron had obtained a draft of an initial unofficial framework for a memorandum of understanding with the United States to help end the conflict.

[00:01:15]Some of the elements inside of this alleged report was that Iran would restore commercial shipping through the state of Hormuz to pre-war levels within one month, excluding military vessels, and that Iran would manage ship traffic in cooperation with Oman. The US would then lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports and withdraw military forces from the vicinity of Iran. They went on to say that this was preliminary and unofficial. And here's a good example of why it's tough to tell what's actually happening. Because shortly after this report allegedly came out, the White House quickly disputed it, calling the document a quote complete fabrication and urging people not to believe Iranian state media claims. You shouldn't believe anything the Iranian state media says unless they're reporting like explosions or strikes cuz they typically are legit when it comes to that stuff for the most part because if there's things getting hit or if there's things blowing up at least they don't seem to be fabricating that but I could be wrong. I would say that it's healthy to have a healthy level of doubt when it comes to Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps affiliated state media. Like I said, the White House said it was complete fabrication. They urged people not to believe the claims. US officials described ongoing negotiations as continuing, but not at the point of any type of finalized draft matching Iran's description. While the United States and Iran are figuring that out, I took a look at marine traffic today cuz I wanted to see like if there's any reports or at least if I could visibly see any AIS transponders of ships showing that ships had transited the straight. And it appears that eight vessels made a full transit through the straight of Hormuz within 24 hours of the 26th leading into the 27th. Of those, four ships use the Iranian traffic separation scheme, meaning routes that are closer to or within Iranian waters or territorial seas, which means that they must have somehow gotten Iranian authorization following IRGC designated paths. Eight vessels within 24 hours. That's still pretty restricted. Just to give you an idea of how many ships were actually going through there pre-war, it was a pretty normal day to have between 100 and 140 vessels transit the straight of Hormuz per day, including a lot of oil tankers, liquid natural gas carriers, because that's a significant liquid natural gas and oil trade route, accounting for 20% approximately of global oil and liquid natural gas trade. Obviously, that's been strangled to death over the past few months since February 28th. Oftent times, it's, you know, between four and 15 ships now. and a lot of times it's none. Now, that being said, there's also a lot of vessels that probably turn off their AIS transponder to take unusual routes or to slip through without people actually seeing them because they don't want the Iranians to be able to detect them. But that's risky because if you go through the straight without any transponder on, you run the risk of the Islamic regime launching strikes on your vessel, which is what we've seen happen with a lot, at least right now, not guaranteed forever. By the way, marine traffic is a great source of information cuz you can see so much data from those ships. You can even see what they're transporting, all all kinds of stuff if you sign up for the right plan. You can set like a certain timeline if you want to watch a playback of like the past 24 hours or the past 7 days. You can see all of the ship traffic that's happened in a region over a certain period of time that's set that you decide. Pretty cool stuff. So, I would check it out if you guys have time. Just to be clear, I'm not sponsored by them in any way, but they are a great company and I do get some of my information from them because they're a great resource. All right, so we're going to shift gears up to Ukraine for this next piece. There was an announcement made on the 27th of May of 2026 by the Ukrainian defense minister Mikailo Fedorov who basically said that Ukraine's launching a quote logistics lockdown initiative to systematically scale up mid-range UAV strike operations against Russian rear area logistics at operational depth which means typically tens to over 100 kilometers behind front lines. The key goals of this initiative is to disrupt Russian supply networks, ammunition depots, fuel storage, equipment convoys, command posts, and transport routes.

[00:05:08]They're also trying to reduce Russia's ability to sustain frontline activity by creating like a lockdown that prevents them from resupplying their infantry that's on the front lines. Ukrainian forces have apparently already quadrupled strikes near rear logistics over the past few months with internal data showing a clear correlation between destroyed rear infrastructure and fewer Russian offensive operations which obviously if it leads to them attacking less they're going to continue to hit those logistics routes to prevent them from building up enough supplies where they can conduct these offensive operations. Now the initial funding trunch for this new initiative is approximately 5 billion UA which is roughly equivalent to 113 to $122 million depending on exchange rates. And the funds are going to go to the most effective UAV brigades hitting Russian logistics the hardest including performance-based payouts because units are incentivized to buy additional mid-range strike UAVs and they get incentivized by successful strikes on highv value targets. A second phase of this is going to involve centralized bulk tenders for large-scale production and acquisition. Now they've already forced Russia to restrict heavy vehicle movement on key highways like for example the um route that links occupied southern Ukraine to Crimea and Donetsk and then a bunch of the Ukrainian UAV units including some specialized brigades like Nemesis and others have been particularly effective against logistics hubs, truck columns and railroad arteries in occupied territories. This is part of their broader asymmetric warfare platform that they've been, I would say, sculpting over the past four years where they use relatively lowcost UAVs to impose high costs on Russian sustainment. While Russia continues its own efforts to do the same thing on Ukrainian logistics, though they've been quite less successful than the Ukrainians have.

[00:06:53]Kind of shifting our eyes and attention a little bit westward towards Lithuania.

[00:06:58]There was an announcement also made on the 27th of 2026 by Lithuanian President Gitanas Noseda following a decision by the state defense council. Basically what they decided is they were going to be purchasing 936 6x6 armored personnel carriers also known as the Patria XA300 or part of the common armored vehicle system program.

[00:07:19]They're going to get the first 300 approximately by 2030 and then full acquisition is going to be spread through 2036 with an estimated cost of 1.5 billion euros which has already been factored into Lithuania's long-term defense plan with no additional funding needed. Now, interestingly enough, a key partial requirement is going to be partial production in Lithuania itself with some ongoing negotiations for technology transfer and integration into the production chain. They're expected to sign the contract in 2027. And also, I didn't mention where these vehicles are coming from. They're coming from Finland. They're going to support Lithuania's newly established First Division, which is aiming to be at full operational capability by 2030. And it's going to help equip a significantly expanded army targeting 20,000 plus troops. That being said, they're not going to be replacements for any of the existing stock of uh infantry fighting vehicles or anything like that, but they will be a complimentary wheeled platform to reinforce what they already have.

[00:08:13]Some of the roles that this Patria 6x6 is going to serve is they're going to serve as troop transport to and from front lines. There's going to be variants of them that are made for medical evacuation, engineering, command, air defense, cuz they can mount short-range air defense systems like the M shorad. And it's got pretty good mobility for traversing the Baltic terrain as well. This thing is a modular six- wheeled armored personnel carrier developed by the Finnish company Patria, like I was telling you, and is regarded pretty highly due to its protection, its mobility, its adaptability, and modularity because you can change how these things are set up depending on the mission set and stuff like that. It's already in service or ordered by several European countries including Finland, Latvia, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, and many others as well. But regardless, this is a major purchase for Lithuania.

[00:08:58]I know it's a small number if you compare the US defense budget to Lithuania, but Lithuania's 2026 defense budget is approximately 5.38% of GDP, which is one of the highest in NATO. And it's probably like that because of the fact that they're in such close proximity to Bellarus and Russia and there's a concern that things could spill over into their country. I know Poland spends a lot on defense as well for the same reasons. Now shifting back over to Iran. Ibrahim Azizi, head of Iran's Parliament National Security Commission, said that Thran will not back down on uranium enrichment or the control of the straight of Hormuz or sanctions relief. Basically, he asserted that those are their red lines in any negotiations with the United States, meaning that they want Iran to have a right to enrich uranium and retain its stockpile of enriched uranium is non-negotiable. They keep saying they're not willing to bend on that one. and then the straight of Hormuz's control.

[00:09:49]They want full Iranian sovereignty and management of the waterway is essential and not up for negotiation the way we did with the nuclear issue. In addition to those demands, they're saying comprehensive lifting of sanctions is also required. I can tell you right now based on what I've seen, if they're not willing to give up those two things, then the blockade that's already out there right now is going to stay and they'll just continue to be restricted and economically strangled until their entire economy collapses because they're not going to be able to support their population from land routes cuz they really do depend on most of their imports coming from the ocean. Now, that doesn't mean that China or Russia couldn't try to start supporting them if they start getting into a nearly crippled state. That could very well happen. I know that Russia's used the Caspian Sea for numerous things, which is that sea that's to the north of Thran. They've shipped a bunch of stuff down from there. And then of course, China's been attempting to transport things to them as well. The only tough part is China has to go through Pakistan on a land route or Usuzbekistan and Tajikhstan and all these other places.

[00:10:52]They might go through Afghanistan, but they probably wouldn't because they know that it would get looted to death if it went through Afghanistan. So they probably go through Tajikistan, Usbekiststan, Turk Menistan, and down south into uh Iran, or they go through Pakistan, which probably makes the the most sense to me. It's a lot easier for China to send supplies on boats around the Bay of Bengal up to the southern coast of Iran than it is for them to send it through a land route, which is why I'm saying that this blockade is definitely having a strong impact on them. I don't know how long they can last for with that if they just are refusing to concede on any of that stuff. I've seen people say potential weeks. Additionally, Aziz stated that any talks or agreements would be meaningless without prior US confidence building steps such as ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, lifting the naval blockade, and allowing civilian shipping under Iranian arrangements, suspending oil sanctions temporarily, and releasing frozen Iranian funds. Again, this is like a hardline position that's likely coming from within the IRGC because the United States is not going to agree to that cuz that's a terrible deal. I just don't foresee them saying, "Yeah, that sounds good. Sure, let's do that. I just don't see that happening. Shifting back over to Ukraine, there was an interesting video that came out on May 26th going into the 27th that was actually filmed earlier this year where a Russian Shahed UAV crashed and detonated literally meters away from a Ukrainian farmer who was operating a tractor in his field tending to his crops. Check this clip out.

[00:12:25]Now, as you saw in the video, the farmer miraculously didn't get hit by this thing. It was meters away. It could have easily blown up and blown his whole tractor up while he was out there, but he was uninjured and continued working his fields despite the explosions, smoke, fire, and debris. It's gone kind of viral on social media because it just like literally started spiraling out of control, which leads me to believe that it got hit with electronic warfare, meaning that it got jammed and then it lost the connection between the operator and the UAV was severed. And so the thing just like went into a downward spiral and crashed to the ground. This happens a lot. Happens with both UAVs on Ukraine's side and on Russia's side. And typically if they're hitting something that seems random, it's because often times they were hit with electronic warfare. It basically either drops dead in the water right there in the sky and falls straight to the earth or it hits random targets, buildings and things like that because wherever the direction it was going before the connection was severed is where it just continues going and sometimes it hits like random infrastructure. Now this happened in Chernah Oblast which is a frequent area for Russian longrange UAV and missile strikes especially agricultural areas due to its proximity to the border.

[00:13:31]Apparently Russia regularly uses these Iranian designed shahid UAVs for night and daytime attacks on civilian infrastructure energy facilities and also rear logistics areas and things like that. Additionally, given the location of Chernah, anything that's traveling from Russia to Kev travels over Chernah cuz Chernah is like northeast of Kev. And so a lot of the stuff that they're firing goes over Bellarus or through Barus or just through the northeastern side of Ukraine, passes over Churnney to get to Kev a lot of times. Or if they're trying to strike western parts of Ukraine, that's another thing that happens as a travel over that area. Now, I know we talked in the beginning of this video about Ebola. What's going on with Ebola?

[00:14:12]Well, on the 27th of May of 2026, Uganda's National Ebola Task Force that's chaired by Vice President Jessica Alupo made an announcement. And the announcement was basically that Uganda has ordered the full closure of its border with the Democratic Republic of the Congo for non-essential travel. The only exceptions that they're going to have is limited crossings are allowed for humanitarian aid, essential cargo, security operations, and Ebola response teams, all under strict screening and strict protocols. An additional measure they're going to be putting in place is that anybody entering from Uganda or the Democratic Republic of the Congo must undergo a mandatory 21-day selfisolation. This is a temporary measure that's aimed at curbing crossber spread due to the rising concerns of Ebola having a major outbreak there.

[00:14:58]Apparently, this outbreak involves the Bundiio virus, which is a less common Ebola strain with no approved specific vaccines or treatments yet, unlike the more familiar Zire Ebola virus. Oh, good. Great. This is why anytime service members have to go to Africa, you have to get like 50 extra vaccines before you go out there because there's so much deadly bacteria and viruses in some of these austere locations out there and sometimes not austere. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, hundreds to over 1,000 suspected cases are existing right now with confirmed cases in the dozens and significant suspected deaths.

[00:15:37]Apparently, the outbreak is spreading around areas with insecurity, mining activity, displacement, and high population movement in Uganda. So far, there's been at least seven confirmed cases, at least one death, and it's mostly been linked to travelers or health workers exposed to patients from the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

[00:15:55]There's also been cases that have appeared in Kala. The World Health Organization declared it a public health emergency of international concern on May 17th of 2026 due to crossber risks.

[00:16:06]Now the reason that Uganda ended up acting on this and making a decision to enact some policies is because Ugandan health workers were exposed to infected congalles patients before the outbreak was fully declared raising alarms about further importation. And obviously the border that they share, there's a lot of trade going on there, a lot of travel, a lot of informal crossings, which increases transmission risks. That's why they decided to try to cut down on travel. Interestingly enough, this decision to close the border goes against the World Health Organization's recommendation, which apparently they advise against full border closures because they worry that these types of measures can actually drive people to unregulated crossings, which harms economies and response efforts. But this is what Uganda decided to do for now.

[00:16:49]They've also activated nationwide surveillance, contact tracing, and public health measures, including restrictions on gatherings. Obviously, the situation out there is rapidly developing. The most concerning part of this whole thing is the fact that it's the bundio virus, which is a less common version of Ebola with no approved specific vaccines or treatments. So, what do you do? You just sit there and sweat it out and hope you don't die?

[00:17:12]Like, bro, Ebola is nasty. In hospitals in the United States, if you're an Ebola patient, you get put into a room that has a specific ventilation system that doesn't go into the rest of the hospital. That's how serious that stuff's taken here in the United States.

[00:17:27]I can't imagine how they're going to deal with it in a place that doesn't have necessarily the access to the technology or the infrastructure to really segregate patients so that is definitive that it's not going to have crosscontamination with other patients.

[00:17:40]Anyway, the last thing I wanted to talk to you guys about is like what I said in the beginning of the video, which was the evening of the 27th of May was the second night in a row where there were apparent strikes on the port city of Bonderabas in southern Iran's border in the straight of Hormuz. When this happened, Iranian state media and semiofficial media like Fars, Tasnim, and Mayor reported three explosions were heard east of Bondabas with air defense systems briefly getting activated. And then residents described shaking homes and sounds resembling missiles or blasts. Apparently, a US official confirmed to Reuters that American forces conducted self-defense strikes, including targeting missile positions and apparently boats that they believed were capable of laying mines that pose threats to US forces and commercial shipping in the straight of Hormuz. Now, this is the second day in a row that that's happened because they said the same exact thing the day previous to that. US Central Command has apparently framed these as limited actions just to protect navigation and troops while this fragile ceasefire persists. Now, in addition to the strikes in Bonderabas, apparently the official that told Reuters about this US military strike also said that the US intercepted and shot down multiple Iranian UAVs that posed a similar threat as well. Now, all that being said, the ceasefire is still considered to be holding. It was a self-defense strike to stop them from putting US troops or the Straight of Hormuz at risk. I guess at least that's what the anonymous official that told Reuters said. Anyway, that's it for today. I'll be keeping an eye on that as best I can. It feels like the information is constantly changing so quickly when it comes to the straight of four moves. It's like really tough to say what's happening. Try to keep an eye on it and keep you guys updated on what's going on. I appreciate you guys supporting the channel. Appreciate you watching the videos. If you want to support this channel more or you want these videos to perform better or you want to help me pay for editors, that's really what it comes down to. The best way to help me pay for editors is by liking and adding a comment on this video because then it reaches more people. one if it gets more views and it makes more money and then I can afford to pay my editors with that. You can also get merch on the website if you want to do that as well. That's another way to support the channel and support what we do here. Don't forget if you're interested to check out the podcast channel, the Kagan Dunlab show and also the gaming channel, Kagan Dunlab Gaming.

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