VNN Forecast: Severe storms possible Sunday, followed by a cooler early week

[00:00:20]Good evening everyone. First lift team meteorologist Joseph Williams with your Valley News Now First Alert forecast.

[00:00:26]And the main story is that we're starting off the weekend on a hot but otherwise gorgeous note where so far the wildfire smoke is not as prominent as it was over the past couple days. So overall, it is a good day to be outside.

[00:00:40]Just keep the heat in mind for the day.

[00:00:42]However, we're watching for a couple of weather issues. We have a first look weather day for Sunday. We went ahead and declared Sunday a first weather day due to the threat of scattered severe thunderstorms possible that could bring large hail and damaging winds. And then we're watching for some leftover wildfire smoke on both Sunday and Monday, as well as lingering hot conditions heading into Sunday and Monday before we cool down on Tuesday.

[00:01:09]So, let's get right to our first forecast to show you what I'm talking about. First, some context. Like I mentioned, good day to be outside. Air quality is good. Uh there's plenty of sunshine. Temperatures are in the upper 80s, though. So, it is a little bit of a warm day outside, continuing that heat that we've been seeing over the past several days. Still though, if you have any outdoor plans, today is a good day to put them to use. You can see uh the Red Hawks team is getting ready for the game against the Chicago Dogs this evening. And it is a good day to be out at the baseball game because for the most part, we're going to stay clear and sunny as we head into this evening.

[00:01:48]Looking at our satellite and radar, you can see mostly sunny skies across our region. Um, we do have a couple of isolated cells out in Roso County, though. So, let's take a look at those cells. They're just a couple of classic summertime thunderstorms uh that are producing some lightning there. Uh, but otherwise, it's a quiet evening. Um, we again, if you're in the path of these little cells out in Roso County, keep the VO first weather app handy. We first alert track these little cells out of the international border and Roso County over the next couple of hours, but otherwise uh they're isolated. They will die down as we head into tonight as daytime heating goes away. They're just your classic summertime thunder showers and heading into the rest of the evening.

[00:02:36]Otherwise, the rest of our region is going to stay dry heading into tonight.

[00:02:40]You can see in Fargo, for example, we're looking at clear skies by midnight. In Fargo, looking at clear skies and a temperature of 73 in Grand Forks and really the rest of our region is going to stay quiet, too. Like I mentioned, we do have a couple of showers out in uh northwest Minnesota that we're going to keep an eye on over the next few hours, but I think the showers will die down before the 9 to 10:00 hour, leaving behind just mostly uh clear skies, just a couple of clouds heading into tonight.

[00:03:09]Then we get to the main story. We have our first low weather days for Sunday because of the severe thunderstorm threat. All the while, we're dealing with some lingering wildfire smoke that may continuously bring some air quality impacts and hazy skies. And the heat that we've been tracking for a while will continue into Sunday and Monday in a couple of areas, but we will cool down into the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday. So, Sunday is what we're going to focus on in this video at least because that's the most important issue.

[00:03:39]We went ahead and declared at wrong graphic there. That's the wrong one. But basically, we went ahead and declared Sunday a first weather day because we're watching uh for severe thunderstorms.

[00:03:49]That was supposed to talk about how for Sunday, we're watching for uh scattered severe thunderstorms that will roll in between Sunday evening and Sunday night, bringing the threat of large hail up to golf ball size, damaging winds up to 70 miles per hour. if we do see any severe weather for Sunday and the threat may continue into the early overnight hours with much of our region susceptible to seeing that severe weather risk. So that's why we made Sunday a first weather day. And here's the culprit.

[00:04:21]High pressure is right now giving us that sunshine and because of how the high pressure system is situated, it's keeping some of the wildfire smoke away from the region. That's why we're looking at those sunny skies this afternoon. Uh but as the wild but as this high pressure system moves east, we'll see some wildfire smoke moving back in. But more importantly, we're watching this low pressure system and warm front and cold front out west. As this complex low pressure system moves east, it'll bring with it an unstable air mass. So we're going to have plenty of moisture. It's going to be very warm and the air is going to want to rise.

[00:04:54]And at the same time, that low pressure system will have the wind shear needed to produce some severe weather uh in the process. So what does that mean for us?

[00:05:04]Well, for Sunday, practically all of our region is under a level two risk for severe weather except for a portion of Lakes Country. That means practically all of our region has the potential.

[00:05:17]That doesn't mean everyone will see a severe thunderstorm. Everyone though has the potential of seeing scattered severe thunderstorms on Sunday evening heading into Sunday night. And if we do see any severe weather, large hail up to golf ball size, so 1 and 3/4 ines and damaging winds up to 70 mph will be the greatest threat. So think large hail and damaging winds. tornado threat very not likely to take place uh because of how these storms are set up, but you can never rule out a tornado with any severe thunderstorms. Uh so we're going to keep an eye on tornado risk just in case. And we can't rule out heavy rain with any of these storms either. So let's take a look at our first little forecast for Sunday to show you what Sunday's forecast looks like. Sunday starts off on a good note. Mostly sunny skies, just a few scattered clouds across the region. Again, got to keep an eye on wildfire smoke, and I'll go over wildfire smoke in just a second, but re really what the story gets interesting as we head into Sunday evening. So, notice that a cluster of storms forms out in central and western North Dakota Sunday afternoon, and that cluster starts moving into northeast North Dakota after the 6 to 7:00 hour. And we'll see that cluster of storms becoming a line of storms in the Red River Valley after the 8 to 9:00 hour.

[00:06:40]So you can see that by the time V News Live at 9 is starting tomorrow evening, the line of storms is crossing into southeast North Dakota and the Red River Valley. And notice those purple colors that indicates the prospect of very strong, if not severe, thunderstorms.

[00:06:57]And the storms will continue moving eastsoutheast as we head into Sunday night. So by 11 o'clock, the line of storms stretches from the North Dakota South Dakota border all the way to portions of central Minnesota including Lakes Country and Ottertale County. So basically the line of storms will be moving out quickly and it is possible like I mentioned that some of the storms may linger into early Sunday night. So there is the possibility of an overnight threat. So you want to going to want to keep the VNF vers weather app handy for that. I'm thinking that the bulk of the storms will be out of our region before valley today for Monday morning. Uh mainly would just be like Sunday evening into early Sunday night that we're going to watch for that uh severe thunderstorm potential uh during that period of time.

[00:07:47]And when the storms are done, the when the storms are out of a region, we're probably looking at about half an inch to an inch of rain for most storms. Some areas, as shown by the yellow colors, may see up to an inch of rain from the storms. So, we're looking at some pockets of heavier rain, but it's mainly damaging winds and large hail that we're going to keep an eye on. So, let's go back and uh go over that first little forecast again. Now I want to mention this is just one model. AB obviously as this low pressure system and cold front get closer to our region and make use of that moisture and stability. The exact timing and track of the storms will change. So you're definitely going to want the BNF bristle weather app handy.

[00:08:29]But you can see at least we start out with clear skies for Sunday morning and afternoon. Just a few clouds. Then as we head into Sunday evening, we'll see clusters of storms moving into eastern North Dakota, spreading into the Red River Valley as we head into late evening, early Sunday night. And you can see it's not until at well after midnight that any leftover rain is out of our region. So there's a possibility of a lingering severe weather threat even heading into early Sunday night.

[00:09:00]you're going to want the VNL for the weather app handy as we first track the storms, especially because again, the timing may change. But it's basically Sunday evening heading into early Sunday night that we're going to be most concerned about that severe weather risk. And then after Sunday night and Monday, the rest of the work week is looking relatively quiet. We may see an isolated rain chance on Friday heading into the weekend that we're going to keep an eye on, but otherwise mainly going to see partly sunny skies. Now, let's talk about the wildfire smoke.

[00:09:30]We've been tracking wildfire smoke over the past couple of days, and fortunately, the bulk of the wildfire smoke is going to stay to the east of us as we head into Saturday evening and Sunday morning. You can see even some lingering haze possible for Sunday afternoon. Um, but again, overall, air quality should be on the good side heading into Sunday afternoon. We may just look at a couple spots of haze, but otherwise mostly sunny skies and good air quality for Sunday afternoon and evening. But then as we head into Monday morning and afternoon, the uh backside of our next weather maker, the one that's bringing the severe weather potential for Sunday, will slide into a region. And when that happens, some wildfire smoke from Canada will push into a region. And that may once again impact air quality across much of a region. So, we're going to keep an eye on Monday, especially as some of that wildfire smoke will return, potentially impacting uh you know, how much haze we see in the sky as well as air quality.

[00:10:36]Finally, we're going to keep an eye on the temperature. Temperatures are they're they're warm this afternoon and evening and they're going to be on the warm side again for Sunday. Okay. In fact, we have a heat advisory in effect for Dicki and Lmore counties in southeast North Dakota and for Brown County in northeast South Dakota. So, southeast North Dakota, northeast South Dakota, and especially under that heat advisory from 1:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

[00:11:00]Sunday because we're looking at some very warm temperatures. Tomorrow morning, looking at temperatures in the 60s and then tomorrow afternoon, upper 80s to low 90s for the afternoon high in some locations, especially in southeast North Dakota. So, upper 80s to low 90s out in southeast North Dakota in the southern Red River Valley, like 93 in Fargo, 88 in Oaks, and 91 in Jamestown for the air temperature. And that means in those locations, the heat index will be more like the mid90s at least, maybe getting into the upper 90s. Out of the international border though, the heat index will be much lower in the upper 80s and the air temperature will be in the mid 80s. So going to be uh still hot in some locations on Sunday afternoon and evening. So keep the heat in mind too, but otherwise uh looking at a seasonable afternoon for Sunday at least in terms of those temperatures. It's this is classic summertime weather basically. And then we'll still be on the warm side, upper 80s to low 90s for Monday afternoon. But by Tuesday afternoon after our next weather maker rolls out, cooler air is flowing in from Canada. And some temperatures are back in the 70s to low 80s. So we finally get a break from the excessive heat heading into Tuesday. Then Wednesday afternoon may see some low to mid 80s again, more mid80s on Thursday and then the temperature will stay in the mid to upper 80s as we head into the upcoming weekend. So the heat does ramp back up as we head into the upcoming weekend. So let's first recap. Sunday is the first little weather day as we're watching for severe thunderstorms on Sunday evening heading into Sunday night and large hail up to golf ball size damaging winds up to 70 mph. If we do see any severe weather will be the greatest threats.

[00:12:45]Then we dry out heading into you know Monday evening and then looking at mostly sunny skies for Tuesday. The uh we get some relief from the heat on Tuesday afternoon and evening, dropping from the upper 80s and low 90s on Monday to the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday.

[00:13:02]And then we climb right back into the mid to upper 80s towards the end of the work week heading into the upcoming weekend. So overall going to be busy heading into tomorrow and going to keep an eye on the heat over the next few days as well as that lingering wildfire smoke. I'm going to get off of here, but I will be on Val News Live at 6:9 and 10 for the latest forecast, and I'll be giving updates in the VNL First Weather app pertaining both to the severe weather threat for Sunday as well as lingering heat and wildfire smoke. In the meantime, thank you so much for watching. Have a good rest of the evening.