Negative RSI Divergence on Semis: 5 Key Charts

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-23

[00:00:09][music] >> The SPX and the NDX are heading higher today with the news that President Trump may be ending the war in Iran. We've heard this narrative before. Every time the markets get a really nice bid, oil gets a nice surge to the downside or nice sell-off to the downside. What we're going to do is we're going to go over some technical analysis with not only the 10-year yield, USO, but all the resistance that's coming up on the SPX and the NDX. Let's jump right in the chart of US 10-year. So, we are getting a pullback, which is why the markets are catching a little bit of a bid today.

[00:00:46]They are up, but they're not taken out or closing above all-time highs, even with the 10-year yield starting to fall.

[00:00:53]What we're looking at is this pivot top in the charts at 4.48%.

[00:00:58]If we get into this level, the S&P 500 will likely get a nice drawdown. What we want to see is price action or the US 10-year to take out this low pivot point, excuse me, this high pivot point.

[00:01:10]Once we start doing that, then the S&P 500 could have a more of a rally to the upside, but right now, this is really the line in your sand for the US 10-year chart.

[00:01:21]Once we get back above this for high pivot point right here around 4.686, then all of a sudden it opens the door to 4.70%.

[00:01:32]That's going to be the max upside, at least in the near term for the US 10-year. Let's jump into the USO chart. Here is a nice pullback. Again, all this news going back and forth on whether or not Iran is coming to the table. We've heard over and over again that they are begging for a deal.

[00:01:53]That's why we got this nice sell-off in the chart of USO. We are into a ton of support on this chart, and so it does actually favor a move up, and that's actually what's happening. Here's this up-sloping trend line. You got the pivot low here, secondary hit here, third hit here. This did pierce the lower end of this up-sloping trend line. However, you notice right at this gap in the charts, we got a nice solid bounce. So, this is your support zone on the chart of USO.

[00:02:21]What I'm watching for is what happens with this up-sloping trend line. If we can finally break this gap in the charts right here at 138.66 and break this up-sloping trend line, then the S&P 500 has an opportunity to continue to climb to the upside. Right now, this is the area on of support on the chart of USO.

[00:02:41]If we can get a bounce off this level and start pushing up a little bit higher, your next level of resistance is going to be back at this gap at $152.93.

[00:02:50]Any negative news, any continuation of the war, then all of a sudden you're going to get this nice surge to the upside. This is your support zone on the chart of USO, and right now it is holding strong. We're going to see what happens in the next few days.

[00:03:07]Uh maybe after the 40 or the 3-day weekend and see what price action ends up doing.

[00:03:13]SOXX, we're going to cover this as well.

[00:03:15]Nice surge above the double top area.

[00:03:18]Today, we're actually getting a little bit more of a sell-off towards the end of the day. It did get it as high as $541 or $42.

[00:03:27]Now, we're pulling back slightly.

[00:03:29]We haven't confirmed above this double top. If the semiconductors decide to rally again, what we're looking for is it to take out this high pivot point at 541.88, and then all of a sudden at the SOXX has legs to the upside. Right now, even after this consolidation and push to the upside, we did have a minor pullback, and now we're heading higher. This to me is starting to signal more of a seller's market than a buyer's market even though we've taken out all-time highs. Let me jump or put on the RSI for you.

[00:04:02]Look at what's happening.

[00:04:04]The relative strength index is putting in some negative RSI divergence. Once we can get back above the 70 on the RSI, if we can fail to get above this high pivot point or this low pivot point at 7208, then all of a sudden we have a failed breakout and then we're going to see a huge sell-off in the SOXX and even with oil, if it does break, the SOXX will continue to fall with it.

[00:04:32]Jumping to the SPX. Here's this up-sloping trend line.

[00:04:35]Pivot top here, secondary hit, third hit, we finally broke above it, confirmed or basically made a continuation move, got a nice pullback into some support and now we're trying to push up a little bit higher. I'm going to go ahead and remove this uh support level or resistance level and this one.

[00:04:54]We got up to this gap in the charts at 7,500 on the SPX.

[00:05:00]Similar to what's going on with the SOXX, even though SOXX did get above the double top, it hasn't necessarily confirmed above it. So, the SPX, if oil continues to drop, it has an opportunity to take out this pivot top at 7,516.

[00:05:16]Once it does, we need a confirmation move up again. Now, let's go ahead and put that other trend line back in the charts. We are above it again. This doesn't necessarily guarantee that we're going to break out. However, what we're wanting to do or what we're monitoring is what price action does. With this price consolidation and negative RSI divergence, this is telling us that there's likely a pullback in the SPX.

[00:05:41]So, what I'm monitoring in addition to it is this up-sloping trend line. Pivot top here, secondary hit, third hit, price consolidated, broke out above. Now I'm actually waiting for a retrace to the scene of the crime back down to about $7,117.

[00:05:56]Then all of a sudden, once that breaks, then we're coming that back to this double top at seven basically the $7,000 and $2 or $7,002 level on the SPX. Last but not least, the NDX. So this is the NASDAQ 100.

[00:06:12]Not quite as volatile as a move as the SOXX.

[00:06:17]This had a 3.66% pullback. So still not a ton of volatility in this chart. However, we did have this nice pullback. We got up close to double top, and now we're pulling back slightly.

[00:06:30]If the SO or if the US 10-year continues to pull back and USO continues to pull back, then all of a sudden it opens up the door for us to take out this $29,675 level.

[00:06:43]Then our next level resistance is going to be right here at the $30,000 whole round number for a rejection.

[00:06:50]What I look for when I'm going over any type of relative strength index is there needs to be volatility for us to to get an opportunity for us to play the RSI or to get basically a stock of what's going on with the buyers and sellers. Right now, the NDX and the S&P 500 still lack the volatility that requires in order for us to really get an idea of what the buyers and sellers are doing. Right now, it's still a buyers market even with this overextension. We need confirmation below some up-sloping trend lines or retaking on the SPX for those up-sloping trend lines, and then all of a sudden we can get a pullback. Right now, again, we are way overextended even with this positive news or potential positive news with oil pulling back. As you can note or as you can note in the charts, we're not getting a huge adverse reaction as far as like an upside move. So, this could be just the sell the news event or an opportunity for the buyers to start taking profits and then that'll drive the price action down.

[00:07:54]We are way overextended. Doesn't mean we can't have additional upside. We need to wait for those confirmations for us to be more confident that the end is um end is near and we got to pay attention to the volatility when we're using the relative strength index. That's the only way we can really use it with any kind of real um confirmation of what the buyers and sellers are doing. So, that's what I have for you guys. Thank you so much for watching. We'll see you guys next time on the charts. Oh, and if you guys are getting something out of this, please make sure you're following, you're liking, subscribing, and sharing with those friends that way they can get the same market information you're getting.

[00:08:30]You guys have a great rest of your day and enjoy the holiday weekend. You guys take care.