This SUPER El Niño Is Building Momentum — Will Be HUGE...

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Today is Friday, May 8th, 2026, and after one of the most violent and exhausting weeks of severe weather this country has seen all spring, the atmosphere is finally taking a breath, but only a breath, because what is developing in the Pacific Ocean right now is going to rewrite the weather story for this country for the rest of 2026, well into 2027, and potentially beyond. Today, I want to do two things: give you the honest near-term picture for this weekend and next week, including the very real heat emergency building Southwest, and then take you on a journey through the full El Niño forecast, season by season, because the data that just came in is genuinely unlike anything we've seen in nearly 150 years. Stay with me through this entire video. This is one of the most important weather forecasts I've put together all year. But first, before any maps, before any model data, I need to acknowledge what happened in Mississippi this week one more time. The tornado emergencies that unfolded Wednesday across Southwestern Mississippi, the violent supercell that tracked through Monticello and Brookhaven, producing what are likely EF3 strength or stronger tornadoes, the fatalities, the families whose lives were permanently changed, that is the real weight behind every forecast we issue. To everyone in Mississippi and across the Deep South recovering from this week's storms, this channel stands with you. If you have loved ones near those communities, please check in on them today. Now, the forecast. Let's start with where we are right now, today, Friday, May 8th. This is a transitional day and a welcome one.

[00:01:33]The severe weather system that battered the Deep South all week is moving out.

[00:01:37]The Southeast coast sees the last of the significant storm activity this morning, with lingering showers across Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas through midday. By this afternoon, most of the country east of the Rockies gets a genuine exhale. The trough that has been parked over the Great Lakes for the better part of 2 weeks is still there, still pumping cool air southward, but the immediate severe weather forcing has moved offshore. This is not a completely clear, sunny day everywhere, but it is the first day since Monday where the word dangerous does not apply to the weather across the central and eastern United States. By the way, if you'd like specific weather forecasts for your region or city, please leave them in the comments. I'll answer them individually as time allows. Also, if you like the video and subscribe to my channel, you'd be very grateful. Now, let's move on.

[00:02:27]The flooding concern is the residual story today. The rainfall totals that stacked up across central Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia over the past 72 hours are extraordinary. Some locations in the corridor from Jackson through Birmingham picked up 6 to 8 in of rain in 72 hours on top of soils that were already saturated. Rivers and streams across the Deep South are running elevated, and some are still rising.

[00:02:52]Flash flooding concerns persist today along river corridors in Alabama and Mississippi, even in the absence of new significant rainfall. If you are near any river or creek in this region today, monitor water levels and know your evacuation route. Saturday, May 9th, Mother's Day Eve. Scattered showers and isolated storms return across the central and southern plains. Oklahoma, Kansas, and portions of Missouri are in the zone for some storm activity during the afternoon hours. The threat is not organized or widespread. We're looking at isolated wind and hail with any stronger cells. Keep your radar accessible if you have outdoor plans in those areas, but this is not a cancel your plans threat. The more interesting story Saturday is the storm activity developing across the southeast as the next system begins organizing. The subtropical jet stream is active and funneling moisture into the Gulf states, and Saturday afternoon and evening could bring some significant rainfall back to Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

[00:03:52]After the week these areas just had, additional heavy rainfall on still saturated soils is a genuine flash flooding concern. The total rainfall picture from this week through Mother's Day weekend across the Deep South is approaching historic proportions for a May event in some locations.

[00:04:09]Sunday, Mother's Day, May 10th, and I want to be straightforward with you about this.

[00:04:15]Sunday is not the clear beautiful Mother's Day that most people are hoping for across much of the Eastern United States. A more dynamic storm system is organizing across the Deep South, and the combination of instability and moisture available generates at least scattered severe weather across the Gulf Coast states. The corridor from Eastern Texas through Louisiana and into Mississippi has to be watched Sunday for potential organized storm development.

[00:04:43]All hazards, damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible.

[00:04:49]Simultaneously, the East Coast is going to see the development of a weak nor'easter signature as this system interacts with the coastal low pressure track. Windy, rainy conditions are likely Sunday through Monday from the Carolinas northward through New England.

[00:05:05]Wind gusts along the immediate coast could reach 40 to 50 mph in the strongest areas. This is not a major coastal storm, but it is enough to disrupt outdoor Mother's Day plans from Virginia through Maine. If you have outdoor plans along the coast this Sunday, have an indoor backup ready. For the interior Midwest and Plains, Mother's Day actually looks more manageable. Temperatures rebounding into the 50s and 60s, some sunshine possible.

[00:05:30]If you're celebrating with family in the central part of the country, Sunday is a reasonable day. I also want to flag the escalating rainfall totals across the Southeast heading into Mother's Day weekend. Between this week's storms and Sunday system, some locations in Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and Alabama could be approaching 8 to 10 cumulative inches of rainfall since Wednesday. That is potential historic flooding territory for the month of May in those areas. Flash flood warnings are going to be frequent through this weekend. Turn around, don't drown applies every single time without exception. Monday, May 11th through the middle of next week, the Sunday system lifts northward along the East Coast and the northeastern United States deals with a rainy, blustery start to the week. Meanwhile, across the northern plains and upper Midwest, a clipper type system delivers another round of showers and remarkably isolated snow showers to Minnesota, Wisconsin, northern Michigan, and potentially Iowa. This is May 12th we're talking about. Snow showers. The cold pattern over the Great Lakes is not releasing its grip quickly. Tuesday, May 13th, Oklahoma and Texas warrant watching for a potential severe weather setup as warmth surges northward of Mexico ahead of the next disturbance.

[00:06:47]The environment on Tuesday has the ingredients for organized supercell development across the southern plains if the timing works out. I'll have more detailed coverage of Tuesday as we get closer and the models sharpen. The broader mid-May pattern from May 12th through 18th shows the western ridge of high pressure finally expanding eastward toward the plains. That brings the warm-up that has been long overdue for the Corn Belt. Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas all see temperatures climbing back toward and above normal.

[00:07:18]For farmers in the Corn Belt who have been unable to plant corn and soybeans due to persistent cold, wet conditions, this mid-May warm-up and drying trend is the window they've been waiting for. Use it. Now, the southwest heat emergency. I need to spend real time on this because it is a genuine public health threat that is going to affect millions of people. By next Monday and Tuesday, May 11th and 12th, a major heat dome is locking in over the desert Southwest and Southern California. Phoenix is already pushing toward triple digits today and the heat is just getting started. By next week, temperature forecasts for Phoenix are approaching 110 to 112°.

[00:07:57]The California Central Valley, Sacramento, Fresno, Bakersfield is heading toward 100 to 105° territory.

[00:08:04]Las Vegas, Tucson, Palm Springs, all looking at prolonged dangerous heat through at least the middle of next week. The Climate Prediction Center has flagged a moderate risk for extreme heat across the desert Southwest and California from May 11th through at least May 14th or 15th. These are not typical warm spring days. These are temperatures that cause heat illness rapidly, especially when combined with the extremely low humidity of the desert environment, values in the teens, where the body's cooling mechanisms are stressed to maximum capacity. If you live in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Tucson, the California Central Valley, or the desert Southwest, begin heat preparation today.

[00:08:47]Hydrate aggressively before you feel thirsty. Identify cooling centers in your area now, not when it hits 110°.

[00:08:55]Check on elderly neighbors and family members daily through next week. Never leave people or pets in vehicles. Limit outdoor activity to early morning before 9:00 a.m. and evening after 7:00 p.m.

[00:09:06]During peak heat days, this heat event is going to be dangerous and potentially record-breaking. West Texas and the Texas Panhandle, Amarillo had near freezing temperatures this week. By Tuesday, you are approaching triple digits. A 60-plus degree temperature swing in under a week. That is the atmosphere under extraordinary stress, and it is a direct expression of the El Niño pattern forcing that is now fully operational. Now, let me give you the complete El Niño forecast, because what just came in from the models is genuinely historic and every American deserves to understand what it means for their weather over the next 18 months.

[00:09:45]The equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures have warmed by over one full degree Celsius in just the past month. The latest probability guidance from the major climate modeling centers is now approaching 100% probability of this developing into a significant El Nino, not moderate, not strong. The guidance is now showing sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific approaching positive 2.5 to positive 3.0 Celsius by the time we reach the winter months. The strongest El Nino of the modern satellite era peaked at approximately 2.7 in 1997.

[00:10:20]To find anything potentially comparable to what these models are now showing, you would need to go back to 1877 before systematic weather observation as we know it today.

[00:10:30]We may be tracking toward the strongest El Nino in approximately 150 years. That is not hyperbole. That is what the model guidance is now consistently producing run after run.

[00:10:42]Let me walk through what this means season by season. Right now through late May, the subtropical jet stream is already active and delivering repeated storm systems and beneficial rainfall to the southern United States. Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia all receiving significant drought relief. The I-10, I-20, I-30 corridor is the bull's-eye for this moisture through the near term and the drought improvement being documented on this week's drought monitor update is meaningful. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest sit under the ridge of high pressure, warm, dry, and largely untouched by the active southern pattern. June through August, El Nino's influence moderates somewhat during summer. The subtropical jet remains active enough to deliver periodic heavy rainfall to Texas and the deep south.

[00:11:35]The Southwest and California heat dramatically. Arizona, Nevada, Southern California could see prolonged triple-digit heat extending well into summer. Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings will become essentially routine from June through August across the desert Southwest. Heat indices across the South will be elevated. Dew points climbing into the 70s create oppressive heat even when temperatures are only in the upper 80s. Expect frequent heat advisories across the Gulf Coast states through the summer. The monsoon season across the Four Corners region, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, should be active and robust bringing daily afternoon thunderstorms and significant moisture to areas that desperately need it. For the Atlantic hurricane season beginning June 1st, El Nino typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear across the main development region and the Caribbean. A strong to super El Nino would significantly reduce the probability of major Atlantic hurricanes tracking toward the US coastline.

[00:12:39]However, the sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean are running above average, which creates a partially compensating factor. The most likely scenario is a below average Atlantic season in terms of total storms, but with the caveat that Gulf of Mexico development systems forming closer to the US coast where El Nino's shear influence is diminished needs close monitoring. Early season development in June is possible, particularly in the Gulf. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which began May 15th, is going to be very active.

[00:13:12]Warm Pacific waters and favorable dynamics will fuel frequent storm development in that basin throughout the season. September through November. This is when El Nino begins to fully assert its power. The subtropical jet becomes increasingly dominant and persistent.

[00:13:28]Storm systems rolling off the Pacific tap into extraordinarily warm ocean water and deliver their energy to the Southern United States repeatedly.

[00:13:36]October looks particularly wet across the Southern Plains, the Deep South, and the Southeast. November begins the transition to peak El Niño influence, and by this point, above average precipitation across California, the Southwest, Texas, the Gulf Coast, and up the East Coast becomes the dominant pattern. December through February, the peak of this El Niño event, and potentially one of the most consequential winter seasons in living memory for the United States. California and the West Coast, the El Niño driven atmospheric river parade, begins in earnest.

[00:14:12]If this event reaches the super El Niño threshold near 3.0, California could see extraordinary snowpack accumulation in the Sierra Nevada, historic reservoir replenishment, and flooding rains along the coast. Think of the most dramatic California wet season you've ever heard of, and then potentially amplify it. The Southern tier of the United States from Arizona through Texas, the Gulf States, and up the East Coast, all seeing above average precipitation throughout winter.

[00:14:42]The Northern tier, Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, Northern Plains, New England, running warmer and drier than average with significantly reduced snowfall. The classic strong El Niño winter signature, but at potentially unprecedented intensity. January 2027 and beyond, atmospheric river events arriving one after another along the West Coast.

[00:15:05]Flooding rains, mudslides, and landslides, a genuine concern for California and the Pacific Northwest if the super El Niño scenario verifies. The Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast seeing above average winter rainfall. The El Niño is expected to remain in place through at least spring 2027 and possibly into summer 2027 before it finally begins to weaken, meaning this pattern persists for 12 to 18 months from its current onset. Here is the bottom line summary of everything I've told you today. The immediate near term, Friday is a well-deserved quiet day. Mother's Day weekend brings renewed storm and flooding threats across the deep south with a nor'easter signature for the East Coast. The Southwest heat emergency is real and building. Phoenix approaching 110° next week. The mid-May warming trend opens a planting window for the Corn Belt. Tuesday brings the next potential severe weather day for the Southern Plains. The big picture, we are tracking toward what may be the strongest El Nino in 150 years. The patterns it is generating are already reshaping weather across every region of the country. Drought relief is arriving for the South. Dangerous heat is building in the West. An extraordinarily wet fall and winter are on the way for the Southern Tier and West Coast. And the full force of this event hasn't even arrived yet. Drop your city in the comments right now. Tell me what conditions look like where you are today. Tell me if you're in the Southwest bracing for the heat, in the Deep South recovering from this week's storms, or in the Corn Belt watching for that planting window. I want to hear from all of you. Subscribe if you haven't already, hit the notification bell, and I will be back Monday with a full Mother's Day weekend recap and updated week two severe weather coverage. Have a safe and meaningful Mother's Day weekend, everyone. Stay safe out there.