"Mark My Words! This Is the BITCOIN CRASH that Restarts the Bull Market" - Arthur Hayes

Ajouté : 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]violence, all this stuff. It only gets worse. The value of energy, of money has been so perverted and debased by politicians and governments. Part of that's the fault of the people themselves.

[00:00:11]>> Like the question with this kind of thing is always like where are they going to get the money from? Do you think this is just countries around the world are going to have to print money to do this?

[00:00:18]>> Yes. Cuz I don't think people want to pay more taxes. It's one thing to say here's a problem. Let's tax you more for it. And they're like, well, what the [ __ ] I've been paying billions and trillions of dollars of taxes over the last decades and now you're saying I got to pay more taxes because you made all these investment decisions that, you know, didn't do anything for our national security or for our security.

[00:00:37]>> Arthur Hayes just identified $90,000 as the level where Bitcoin's rally turns explosive. Call option sellers forced to buy Bitcoin in a gamma squeeze that he says sends it back to $126,000 and beyond. SpaceX filed its IPO S1 on May 20 at targeting a $ 1.75 trillion dollar valuation, the largest IPO in human history. And Arthur Hayes says the AI capex bubble is productive, not destructive, because it lays the foundation for a decentralized AI economy. Arthur Hayes warned Bitcoin holders this week that Sailor is not their safety net. Sailor is not there to protect your Bitcoin bags. Hayes is now building a growing position in near protocol after hype and Zcash. And he says the AI shock, mass knowledge worker unemployment followed by central bank liquidity injections is the specific catalyst that sends Bitcoin into its next major bull cycle. Let's watch and discover.

[00:01:28]>> More opaque. Um and we'll see what it what they call it. But in effect, it will be yield curve control.

[00:01:35]>> But it's like the the kind of question is all roads lead back to the money printer really is where we're going with this.

[00:01:41]>> Yes. until until the population and economy says, "Okay, I'm going to accept a leader who's going to come in and tell me that I have to make sacrifices in my standard of living, whether that's higher taxes or less government services for things that happened even before I was born. And I have no personal I didn't make any decision to to spend on these things. But somebody before me spent all this money on stuff, doesn't matter what it was, and now I have to suffer and I have to pay for it.

[00:02:11]We're humans. That just isn't going to happen. That is not a winning political strategy. Yes, Argentina and Mle are kind of doing this, but Argentina has been [ __ ] for the last 100 years, and the population finally said, "Okay, we're going to try something different."

[00:02:23]That's not the case in the United States and a lot of advanced Western European economies.

[00:02:28]>> Yeah. Getting like the majority of a population to vote in a party that is saying like, "We're going to do real austerity. It's just it's not going to happen." Um, which is kind of like what does happen then? Do do we just have continued societal decline? Is is that like what [laughter] you feel right now? The >> this angst, this, you know, the violence, all this stuff, it only gets worse because people the we all know the underlying cause, but nobody wants to admit what it is and fix it. They're just going to say, "Oh, it's economy than long duration debt."

[00:03:01]Um so basically you know there due to the co the co stimulus program you had this however many trillions of dollars were printed and a lot of people basically um shove that into uh the banking system and um money market funds. They said okay I've got all this money I don't have I don't need it to spend anything. let me just earn the 5 a.5% in a money market fund which is higher than what they get at a commercial bank at least in the United States. And so the money market funds had all this money and what they can do is they can park that money at the Federal Reserve and they can earn a rate which is pretty much um commiserate with the uh effect Fed funds effective rate.

[00:03:42]There's a bit of nuance around that, but essentially the Fed guarantees if you give us money into this facility, we give you a rate. And they have to do this to be able to pin or manipulate short-term rates at the level uh that they want them to be at. So the money market funds have $2.5 trillion um and invested with the Fed. And this is uh very good for money market funds. They get a rate, everyone's happy, right? So, um, at the same time in 2022, end of 2022, the Fed's raising rates, and again, there's another affordability issue, but the US economy needs assets to go up.

[00:04:21]Rich people need capital gains taxes to pay taxes. You know, rich people pay most of the taxes in the United States, and, you know, they fund all the politicians. And so Biden and Yelen at the time came up with a scheme where okay we need to juice the markets. We can't reduce we can't reduce rates. We can't do quantitative.

[00:04:38]>> Arthur Hayes the co-founder of BitMax and CIO of Maelstrom the fund that has been one of the most consistently accurate macro bitcoin analysts of 2026 identified a specific price trigger that changes everything above $90,000. He called it the gamma squeeze. the self-reinforcing options mechanism where call option sellers at $90,000 and above are forced to buy the underlying Bitcoin as the price approaches their strike prices. In derivatives terminology, when you sell a call option, you are obligated to deliver Bitcoin at the strike price if the buyer exercises. As Bitcoin approaches that strike, the sellers must buy Bitcoin to hedge their exposure, which pushes Bitcoin higher, which forces more sellers to hedge, which pushes Bitcoin higher. Still, Hayes says the gamma squeeze above $90,000 is the specific mechanism that produces what he describes as an explosive rally back toward the $126,000 all-time high. The sailor warning that Hayes issued this week cuts through the most dangerous misconception in the current Bitcoin market. who had massive dislocation of bluecollar workers starting in you know the 1990s until the present day and only probably until recently did they have a voice in you know Donald Trump maybe a little bit Biden you don't pick your right of center politician in Europe and and Australia talking about the concerns of these blue collar workers who you know lost their jobs due to the Chinaification of global markets and and the labor force But the white collar workers have the um organs of power. They own them. They have the media. Nobody cares about blue collar workers in the advanced economy.

[00:06:21]It's all about what are rich white collar workers doing whether from culture, whether from spending habits.

[00:06:26]And this is what the news cycle is really about. And so this issue is going to be amplified to levels that were that we were unaccustomed to when you think about what happened from in the last past four years as China entered the global economy and sort of depressed um wages for a lot of this work. So I think it's going to seem like it's a lot larger than it is just because these are the folks who the New York Times writes about and cares about. Um but at the end of the day I think it's you know we're talking probably 10 to 20% I think is the amount of knowledge workers at least in this particular wave that are going to lose their jobs due to in the in the election and Iran don't even doesn't even register anymore. Right? There's all sorts of things they can do. But if we want to have that explosive bull market in Bitcoin and other other crypto assets, we need a policy panic and I think we're almost there. But it doesn't mean that Bitcoin goes up. It could go from 75 to 70,000 um if the 10year starts like ripping towards 5% in a volatile fashion. But this is the recipe. We're almost at that point where you get this massive panic due to bond market fundamentals and volatility and you get a massive policy response in the United States and other places around the world and then that's it. They're done. They've got the excuse to do what they've always wanted to do and now it's just, you know, a massive printing exercise for a year or two. And that's what carries Bitcoin through 126,000 to whatever level it's going to get to on the upside before we come to our senses again and it goes down. How many more of these sort of panics do you think fiat can take? Like cuz from 2007 to COVID, like the the amount of money printing is like 2007 is not even on the chart. That was probably like a week of printing during CO or something stupid like that.

[00:08:10]Like how many more of these can it take?

[00:08:12]Like when will we get to the last fiat cycle or do you think again this is more sustainable than people will give it credit for?

[00:08:17]>> I mean I think fraction reserve banking has been off for hundreds of years. Like the bank of England was the first the first episode of quantitative easing to save the [gasps] uh was it the I forgot which company it was one of the ones that was >> speaking on Scott Melker's Wolf of All Streets podcast. Hayes said Bitcoin holders should not confuse Michael Sailor's systematic buying machine with a safety net for their own portfolios.

[00:08:40]His exact words, "Sailor is not there to protect your Bitcoin bags. Strategy and its STRC preferred equity program exist to serve Strategy's stockholders and the financial products built around Strategy's balance sheet. Sailor is protecting strategy, which means if Bitcoin's price falls significantly and Sailor needs to sell some Bitcoin as part of his multivariate optimization model, which he explicitly said is possible before year end, he will do so.

[00:09:06]The Bitcoin holders who have been assuming that strategies continuous buying creates a price floor, are operating with a dangerously incorrect model. The structural demand that Hayes identifies as the real bullcase, AI infrastructure spending, war-driven fiscal expansion, central bank liquidity injection is the correct model. Sailor is a participant in that model, not the model itself. SpaceX filed its S1 IPO document with the SEC on May 2026, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion and aiming to begin trading on June 12th. This is the largest IPO in human history, eclipsing every previous listing by a multiple. The $1.75 trillion target places SpaceX ahead of Saudi Aramco's 2019 IPO Balawan.75 trillion target places SpaceX ahead of Saudi Aramco's 2019 IPO $1.7 trillion other above that and yes Bitcoin Bitcoin represents electricity at the end of the day that's what the derivative of Bitcoin is on a kilowatt hour and what work that can do and AI cares about you know flity port operations per second period of latency that is their currency. So I think that yes, Bitcoin is probably the best approximation of that right now. There will be a uh AI commodity token that represents um floating point operations per second closer than a token does and that is what is going to be the currency of the AI economy. We don't have that yet. Um but I think that if I think about it in a theoretical perspective, I think that is what is coming for the AI economy.

[00:10:41]and then we'll price everything else off of that. You know, a still might use Bitcoin because, you know, maybe they need to interface with a human and the human wants Bitcoin, doesn't want this other currency. But I think there is a space for that type of currency. It will be cryptographic in nature. It will be on a public blockchain. It will not be a US dollar stable coin in my opinion.

[00:11:00]>> Yeah. I mean, on the crypto side, because I I like I'm I just pay attention to Bitcoin, but I know that you you sort of trade other stuff. Um the the kind of narrative in Bitcoiner circles is that the the crypto trade kind of died in the last cycle in the sense that like because AI took so much hype and don't get me wrong it definitely took hype away from Bitcoin as well but it looked like from the outside that sort of the crypto world got a little crushed with that and they weren't you know again like you weren't really getting the meme stock pumps all that sort of stuff. Like do you look at that the crypto ecosystem