Court Affirms Jonathan Eligibility To Contest - Sam Ahmadi

追加: 2026-05-28

[00:00:04]The Federal High Court in Abuja has affirmed that former President Goodluck Jonathan is eligible [snorts] to contest the 2027 presidential election. And Justice Peter Lifu held that there was no impediment preventing Jonathan from seeking a return to the presidency.

[00:00:25]Well, the judge ruled that the issue of Jonathan's eligibility had already been decided by the court of appeal. Yeah, he dismissed the suit filed by an Abuja-based lawyer as a frivolous one and an abuse of court processes. The court also held that the plaintiff lacked the legal right to institute the action. The lawyer had argued that Jonathan had already been sworn in as president on two occasions. He claimed that if Jonathan won the 2027 election and served a full term, he would have exceeded the constitutional limit of eight years. Justice Lifu rejected that argument. Well, for analysis of the latest judgment granting eligibility to the former President Goodluck Jonathan to contest next year's presidential election is the director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thought, Dr. Sam Amadi. Joining us now from our Abuja broadcast center. It is always great to have you on the program. Thank you for joining us, Dr. Amadi.

[00:01:25]Thank you for having me.

[00:01:27]Well, crazy things are happening as they say. A lot of intrigue and political maneuvering. What do you make of this judgment allowing former President Goodluck Jonathan to run? And what do you make of the arguments that were put up to justify such?

[00:01:50]Well, first I think the case perhaps uh didn't quite look robust. Um the attorney general uh recall had you know pulled away kind of discontinued the involvement of the Nigerian if you like the federal federal legal office in this respect and um uh we had this in 2020 to the three we run up to 2023 when the argument around whether Jonathan was eligible to run came up and some people went to court and of course there was a court in Bayelsa and so on.

[00:02:22]And now what the first of the motivation is always political about whether he should run or he shouldn't run or whether he should be stopped from running or those who want him to run. So it doesn't look like there's too much legal motivation in terms of clarifying what the law is.

[00:02:41]But always about the possibility that Jonathan could run and in 2023 we saw that possibility some people persons purchased form for him some kind of branded vehicles and things like that posters in and by the way he run. So this year I think this idea of stopping him legally or helping him or asking him to run underlines this case. And the high court simply said well there's a precedent you know the court of appeal had decided this matter and the the judge was not convinced by the argument being brought. And again if you wanted to challenge the court of appeal probably go to the Supreme Court and except you brought a different argument this looks dead now. It would look like the whole scenario is a political question not a legal question.

[00:03:27]Interestingly the section that of the constitution that seemed to suggest that Jonathan could not run is a section that was inserted to respond to you know what happened in 2011 when 2009 and 10 when Jonathan took over office and then had to run for election and then served one term lost in So there's always been this uncertainty around whether every Nigerian has a right to contest if we will govern for two terms for any elective executive office, governor, president.

[00:04:03]But, it wasn't too clear whether if a person had served out a term of another person and had, you know, then run on his own, won and sworn in, whether they still got two swearing in could then stop you from being a candidate for another election because he could potentially oversee the 10 years. I I I don't think the 8 years I don't think that has been very clearly defined by any court so as to say whether if a person is sworn in twice and cumulatively is more than 7 years 8 years, does that really contravene the constitution? Some might argue it does not because each term is for 4 years.

[00:04:41]So, the two terms he ran and was sworn in substantive president was two terms.

[00:04:47]There are arguments that that section could not go back retroactively to deal with somebody who had a whose tenure was not in purview when the law was made.

[00:04:56]So, a lot of legal arguments, but now clearly that obstacle has been taken away.

[00:05:03]But, speaking speculatively now, if former President Goodluck Jonathan eventually decides to run, do you think he would be a serious threat to President Bola Tinubu's reelection bid?

[00:05:15]Or would you say that Nigeria's political landscape landscape has fundamentally changed since he was in power in 2015?

[00:05:25]Well, the Nigerian political landscape changes fast, but some things don't change. I mean, some basic fundamentals never change. The fact that our election politics is largely determined by ethnic religious configuration, that does not change quite quickly as much as others fundamentals.

[00:05:43]Some things change like today we have social media is playing key role in changing the narrative and narratives are affecting behavior political behavior and political behaviors somewhat impact on results. We saw that with 2023 when Mr. Peter Obi ran and there was this notion of four men in the room, you know, chattering the idea of there are no polling units in the in the social media, but again, everybody was surprised by a very even if you discount the claims about rigging and take the results as they are, a very very phenomenal performance in terms of 6.4, 6.1 million voters. That tells a story around the way the electoral system is changing. Younger voice are coming in youths are becoming the largest voting population and they're becoming very organized and very energetic. So, we didn't have that in 2015, we didn't have that in 2011 and previous election. That has changed.

[00:06:36]Again, the kids on the block today Tinubu has consolidated the establishment in terms of the governors, the national assembly.

[00:06:45]And they have enormous war chest and some would say seeming control of the input institutions, whether it's electoral management body or the judiciary. He is head head, you know, head above others. But again, the other argument has been that they when government fails as it's failing many indicators, security, economic development, the people they lose the people.

[00:07:10]As we've seen the US elsewhere, every politician is the same in terms of reflecting that once leadership incumbents don't perform, people don't like to reelect them. But then, the dynamics changes, rigging, the quality of electoral fair election, the ability of voters the voter, you know, coming out to vote a party or the other. Those also come to the mix.

[00:07:30]Jonathan is always will also always be a strong political factor. If he enters the ballot, there there will be some significant shifts.

[00:07:41]Again, how significant will determine whether you'll be enough for him to throw the hat in. Of course, we will respect that he's going to have some constituency to himself. Uh Tinubu has a constituency. And Mr. Peter Obi, who is a presumptive candidate maybe in a couple of days, has Atiku Abubakar. So, these guys have their their their captive Yeah, go ahead. Uh just because of just for the sake of time. Well, we're wondering what uh ticket he would even run on uh which special purpose vehicle uh party would he be joining? Is he going to go back to PDP? Is he going to join some of the other more fancy uh new new parties? And um you know, does his presence risk fracturing the parties that he joins?

[00:08:27]Yeah.

[00:08:30]Well, the for all intents and purposes, he's not he left the PDP. But again, the party that has been promoting his candidature is a faction of PDP. The question is that is that faction going to make it to the ballot? Uh so far, based on the fact of what's on the ground, the Wike faction is having upper hand in every way.

[00:08:49]Judicially, INEC recognizes them so far.

[00:08:52]So, the question is which platform? But the bigger question is will he even want to run if the odds are not very clearly in his favor. So, those are conjectures.

[00:09:00]But my own sense would be that maybe the president will come short of running.

[00:09:05]Uh maybe he doesn't want him to run. Uh maybe well, uh he has significant political weight. But then, considering all the uncertainties on the political landscape and the landmines, he may he may come short of being on the ballot.

[00:09:18]Um and even if he wants to be on the ballot, the question will not be on which ballot, which ballot. Of course, there are 18 or so political parties. Uh some of them are known.

[00:09:26]Uh and then time is ticking. And by by by by Saturday, we might be out of speculation because there will be no other candidate to get who gets to run this election. But my vote will be maybe he'll come short of winning. Well, Dr. Sam Amadi, it's been a very enjoyable discussion. Thank you so much for joining us on News Day. He's the director of Abuja School of Social and Political Thoughts.

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