Russia’s Last Allies JUST Became Putin’s Biggest Problem

Ajouté : 2026-05-21

[00:00:00]“In Africa, as elsewhere in the world, Russia has  been largely defeated.” Those were the words of the French Foreign Minister, Jean-Noël Barrot,  at the Africa Forward Summit 2026, and they have struck like a dagger to Russia’s collective  heart. Why? Because Barrot is right. Russia’s last allies in the world are quickly becoming Putin’s  biggest problem. Influence is waning. Backs are being turned against Putin. If you still think  that Russia is a global superpower, think again.

[00:00:30]The decline is real. And Africa showcases how far  Russia has fallen. Barrot made his comments to Le Monde in the wake of the Africa Forward Summit  2026. That summit alone stands as a testament to what Barrot calls Russia’s waning influence in  Africa. It was co-hosted by France and Kenya in the Kenyan capital city of Nairobi, and it lasted  for two days between May 11 and May 12. Around 30 heads of state and governmental leaders attended  the summit, along with several thousand business leaders, and the summit ultimately resulted  in France pledging a staggering €14 billion, or around $16.2 billion, of investment into  various projects. That investment highlights a key difference between France’s approach to  Africa and Putin’s attempts to build Russia’s influence. But we’ll get back to that. What this  summit highlights is that the tensions that have been simmering between France and many of the  Sahel nations in Africa, along with some of the French-speaking countries on the continent, are  starting to cool. Barrot himself points to the fact that people from the Ivory Coast attended  the summit, suggesting a thawing. However, to explain why all of this matters, especially  to Russia, we first need to explore what Putin has been trying to do in Africa over the last few  years. Russia’s goal has been to win in Africa at the expense of France and the rest of Europe.  Now, those plans are falling apart. Not that Putin would have ever predicted Russia’s fall  from grace on the continent when he first began his campaign of influence. That campaign began  in the Sahel region of Africa, which covers much of the Western and North-Central parts of the  continent and roughly stretches from Senegal to Sudan. Russia entered that region amidst Putin’s  larger efforts to reassert Russia as the sort of global influence that it had been during the glory  days of the Soviet Union. Between 2014 and 2019, we saw these efforts accelerate. The illegal  annexation of Crimea allowed Putin to claim that he was somehow returning Russian territory to  the Motherland. Russian campaigns in Syria, Libya, and the Central African Republic all helped Russia  to build what Putin likely viewed as a network of puppets and proxies that he would be able to use  to Russia’s advantage in the future. The strategy was almost always the same. Putin would identify  an African nation dealing with instability of some kind, and he would ride in on the Russian white  horse to offer stability in the form of security and weapons. The Sahel was the perfect victim  for Putin’s campaign. By the end of the 2010s, the entire region was embroiled in issues  related to crumbling political entities and broad security challenges. Corruption was rife in  many Shael nations, and violence was on the rise.

[00:02:59]Military juntas in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso  all took power between 2020 and 2023. In Mali, Putin saw an opportunity, as he offered up Russian  mercenaries and, later, a dedicated Russian force, to protect the junta that had come to power.  That was the pattern: Find somebody to back, and build influence by offering soldiers and  security. Keep Mali in mind, by the way. That nation, perhaps more than any other, showcases  the very real problem that Russia now faces in Africa. Putin’s strategy worked, for a while.  And when Russia’s leader invaded Ukraine, he ramped up his campaign of influence. Putin didn’t  realize at the time that the invasion would end up being the rod that broke Russia’s back. For the  first couple of years, nobody could see Russia’s failure coming. In 2023, the BBC reported that  a massive disinformation campaign was ongoing in Africa. Built on a large social network that was  informally dubbed the “Russosphere,” this campaign delivered all of the messaging that Putin believed  would weaken European influence in Africa, while strengthening Russia’s hold over the nations into  which its tendrils had slid. France was accused of modern-day colonialism, stirring up the sorts of  tensions between France and the Sahel nations that we mentioned earlier. Ukrainians were decried as  Nazis and Satanists as Russia attempted to create support for Putin’s invasion that would later  manifest in the exploitation of African manpower.

[00:04:14]Mercenary groups, such as Wagner, started to make  their presence felt, particularly in countries like Mali. And all of this was underpinned  by Russia positioning itself as the security partner of choice for many of the African nations  that it was trying to woo. In a June 2024 piece, The Independent even discussed why so many  nations were turning to Russia over the West. It pointed toward repeated visits made by Russian  politicians, the use of the likes of Wagner, and the creation of Russia’s Africa Corps, all of  which were intended to send a message to African nations. The West doesn’t care about you. But  Russia will provide you with security, soldiers, and direct lines to the most powerful people in  Russian politics. Russia was also smart in that it didn’t overtly meddle in the domestic affairs  of the nations that it was courting. Where the U.S. and other Western nations pushed democracy,  especially in countries that were falling under the influence of dictators or juntas, Russia kept  an outwardly hands-off approach. Of course, Russia was still influencing these countries. But it  was doing so behind closed doors, with everything presented to the public making it appear that  Russia was simply supporting African nations, many of which just so happen to be rich in oil,  minerals, and other resources, down whatever paths those nations wanted to take. Putin was  the benevolent leader. The West wanted to force change. Go with Russia, and your security and  ability to govern yourself would be guaranteed.

[00:05:30]The messaging may have been on point, but the  problem that Putin never foresaw is what has led Russia into the failure that it now faces.  Promises of security only mean so much when you fail to deliver, and that, along with several  other factors, is what is leading Russia’s last few allies to turn their backs on Putin. That  changes everything for Russia’s geopolitical influence. But before we dig deeper, this is why  we make The Military Show – to explain how power really moves. If you’re new here, hit subscribe  so you don’t miss out on what’s coming next. So, Putin had spent years building up Russia’s  influence in Africa. Now, it’s all crumbling down, and there are several reasons why. First up  is investment in the African continent. In his interview with Le Monde, Barrot reveals  the major vulnerability in Putin’s plan, which is that Russia doesn’t spend anything close  to what it needs to spend to gain true influence.

[00:06:21]“We often focus too much on surface issues,  but the reality is clear,” Barrot declared, adding, “In terms of trade, investment, and  welcoming African students to our universities, France and Europe's contribution to Africa's  development is 10, 50, even 100 times greater than that of countries such as China, Russia, or  the US.” The European Council on Foreign Relations backs and builds on this sentiment in an October  2024 piece. It pointed out that Russian trade with African nations had doubled in the decade up to  2023, reaching $24.6 billion in 2023. However, that was still a long way behind trade with the  European Union, which was $288 billion. China, India, and Turkey were also well ahead of Russia  on the trade front, and still are. At the time, Russian direct foreign investment also only  accounted for just 1% of Africa’s total, and it didn’t deliver on the scale needed to  fund projects that could enact actual change, such as the development of large infrastructure  or the creation of mining projects that might allow African nations to benefit from their  resource-rich land. These financial issues were bubbling away under the surface. But the cracks  that have started to appear were all papered over by Russia’s security promises. The anti-West  sentiment that Putin had successfully spread in many nations worked for as long as Russia  wasn’t called upon to deliver on its promises.

[00:07:36]Spoiler alert: Russia was called to deliver on its  promises, and it failed spectacularly. Earlier, we asked you to keep Mali in mind. There was  a reason for that. Recent events in Mali have exposed Russia’s promises to be completely false.  Putin’s forces in the nation were supposed to help Mali’s junta maintain control over the population.  But when put to the test, they failed so badly that they allowed separatists and rebels to make  massive gains in Mali. Toward the end of April, Mali’s Azawad Liberation Front, which is a  militia that is fighting for the independence of northern Mali from the central junta, launched  an assault on the city of Kidal. A key stronghold, that city was home to several units of Russia’s  Africa Corps, which were put in place solely to stop such an assault in its tracks. They failed.  The Africa Corps was surrounded in Kidal and eventually negotiated its withdrawal. The Hill  reports that the withdrawal appeared to grow to encompass most of northern Mali, or around  half of the territory that the Africa Corps was supposed to be protecting. That, on its own,  would have been humiliating enough for Russia’s “protectors.” But making things even worse was  that footage emerged of a Russian convoy getting out of Kidal as fast as possible, highlighting  Russia’s failure. It later emerged that the Africa Corps had withdrawn so quickly that it had  left equipment behind, including mine-resistant vehicles that are now in the hands of rebels that  have the backing of al-Qaeda. Such attacks destroy the narrative of Russia offering security. They  could also give rise to further rebellions in places like Burkina Faso and Niger, where the  Africa Corps, which has just proven itself to be useless at the one job that it’s supposed to  do, has stationed units. This single incident is indicative of a wider problem that Russia has  created for itself across the Sahel region.

[00:09:12]As Foreign Affairs noted in a March 25 piece, a  combination of Russian heavy-handedness and its inability to convert the gains made through its  campaign of influence into any real successes has crippled Putin in the Sahel. Russia hasn’t  fostered any cooperation between Sahelian states, which means it has done practically nothing to  solve the stability problems that it claimed it would help those states to solve. If anything,  Russia has just created more division in Africa.

[00:09:37]The Kremlin celebrated when Niger, Burkina Faso,  and Mali withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States to form the Alliance of Sahel  States as a new economic block in the region.

[00:09:47]But cheering didn’t amount to any sort of real  economic support, as we mentioned earlier. It’s “thoughts and prayers” when “money and resources”  are what those states need from Russia. And as other players enter the Sahel field, and Africa  in general, Russia is also finding its influence diluting. Europe, and especially France, already  has influence and is rebuilding bridges. China, Turkey, and even the United Arab Emirates are  building ties, all of which undercut what Putin was trying to do in the African states where  Russia tried to create more global power. In short, it’s all falling apart for Putin in Africa.  The Kremlin’s militarized approach is losing out to France and Europe’s long-term economic model.  Barrot makes that point, telling Le Monde, “Beyond security issues, Russia's contribution  to the development of Africa is zero. France's trade with Africa is three times greater than  Russia's. French investment is eight to 10 times higher. The number of African students welcomed  in French universities is eight times higher. The numbers speak for themselves.” He’s backed by  a May 15 piece by the Lansing Institute, which points to the Ukraine war as being the trigger for  Putin losing so much of his influence. That point makes a lot of sense. Russia’s entire strategy  in Ukraine was to steamroll through and prove the power of Russia’s military while taking what  the Kremlin saw as a weak state. Over four years later, Russia has only managed to claim about  20% of Ukraine, and it will likely have to keep fighting for many more years to take the entire  country. In the process, until tens of thousands of units of Russian military equipment have been  destroyed, along with about 1.35 million soldiers and counting, all of which means that Russia  doesn’t have the financial or military resources to provide the sort of support that it promised  its African allies just a few short years ago.

[00:11:24]Russia has been reduced to providing mercenaries  to gain access to African gold and diamond mines.

[00:11:29]And what happened in Mali proved that those  mercenaries aren’t exactly competent at their jobs. That mention of mines leads us to another  reason why Russia is now losing in Africa just as badly as it's losing in Ukraine. Russia’s  entire strategy wasn’t built around wanting to help African nations grow so that all can prosper  from the resources on their land. Putin wanted to exploit. To provide surface-level protection  that would never have to be tested, allowing him to spread Russian influence and gain access  to what he really wants out of Africa: Resources.

[00:11:58]Both material and human. The exploitation has been  present from the start, though Russia was able to conceal it with propaganda. When Putin expanded  Russian outreach into Africa in the 2010s, that was exploitative in its own right. Only,  Putin was exploiting weak regimes and political instability to burrow Russian influence into  vulnerable African states. It was a cheap and quick tactic that, like so much of what Russia  does and says, didn’t hold up to scrutiny. Now, and as Barrot points out, all that Russia is  able to offer is exploitation in return for security services that fail when they’re tested.  “…what I see is that Vladimir Putin's Russia offers nothing but security services traded for  exploitation of Africa's resources. And lately, in Africa as elsewhere – in Mali, but also  from Venezuela to Iran and Syria – Russia has been largely defeated,” Barrot tells Le Monde.  And again, he has a point. It’s not just the failure of the Africa Corps that will be catching  the attention of the African allies that Putin has lured in with promises of protection. Those  allies will have watched what happened in Syria, where Bashar al-Assad’s entire regime was toppled  with lightning-fast efficiency, despite having been supported by Russia for years. They will see  what happened in Iran, where Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed within the first 24 hours of  Operation Epic Fury as Russian air defenses failed to protect him. In Venezuela, former dictator  Nicolas Maduro was snatched up by the U.S. in an operation that made the military hardware that  Russia had been sending to the former president look practically useless. Time and time again, the  pattern emerges. Russia promises protection. Then, it fails to protect. Mali was just the first  example that has really affected the African states where Russia holds influence, and it  is unlikely to be the last. And it’s not just the pattern of protection failures that African  nations are starting to see. The exploitation that is rife from Russia is showing those nations that  any deal they make with Putin only really benefits Russia, and can actively harm Africa. Between the  beginning of the Ukraine war and February 2024, Russia extracted $2.5 billion worth of gold  from Africa, all of which was likely used to fund the Ukraine war. The Wagner Group, which has  since essentially morphed into the Africa Corps, was key to this extraction. In Mali, Russia  wants to get its hands on uranium and lithium.

[00:14:07]Elsewhere in Africa, Russia is running recruitment  campaigns laden with disinformation and deception to convince young African men to sign up for the  Russian army and fight in Ukraine. Many of these men don’t know what they’re really signing  up for. They’re promised rear duty and fast access to visas. New lives in Russia. But what  really happens to them is that they’re shipped to the front to serve as little more than meat  for Putin’s war. Ukraine said in February that its data had revealed that there were more  than 1,780 citizens of African countries fighting for Russia. Putin and his cronies deny  all of it, of course. But it’s clear that the exploitation that has always been on Putin’s  mind now extends to Africa’s people. And that, perhaps more than anything else, is creating  the sort of blowback that could topple a house of cards that was already missing half of the  deck. The American Foreign Policy Council points out that African leaders are starting to speak  out against Russia. Nigeria’s Foreign Ministry is actively warning the country’s citizens not to  sign up for a foreign military. In South Africa, officials have received panicked phone calls  from citizens who ended up trapped among Russian mercenary groups as they fought their way into  the Donbas region of Ukraine. The new pattern has emerged. Russia is stealing everything that  it can from Africa while it still has the chance.

[00:15:16]If Putin and his Kremlin cronies were able to  offer the security and protection that they have promised to their partners in return for this  exploitation, then eyes may have been diverted, and Russia’s actions could have been overlooked.  But that’s not what’s happening. There’s no real protection coming from Russia. There is almost no  money, especially when compared to what Europe and China pour into Africa. All that exists now  is exploitation. Russia’s most recent allies are waking up to that fact, and they’re starting  to turn. The protection myth has been shattered, and Putin has been exposed. What we now see is the  collapse of Russia’s influence on a continent that Putin believes to be invaluable. After all, why  would an African nation want to work with Russia now, after seeing all that has happened? That’s  Barrot’s point, as all that Russia has managed to achieve is reopening the door for Europe to become  the key geopolitical player in Africa. We touched on the Mali incident and why it is so important to  the fate of Russia and its campaign of influence in Africa. If you want to know more about that  incident, and what it really means for Russia, then check out our video. And if you found this  video interesting, make sure you subscribe to The Military Show, where we cover how power  really moves, along with all of the incidents that prove that Putin and his cronies aren’t  as powerful as they want you to believe.