El Niño fuels above-normal hurricane season forecast for Hawaii

追加: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]A developing El Niño and warmer Pacific waters could set the stage for a more active hurricane season this year. And forecasters say some storms that form far east of Hawaii could still threaten the islands. Here's what's driving the outlook and the new tools rolling out for Hawaii's residents.

[00:00:18]The 2026 hurricane season is shaping up to be a busy one across the Pacific.

[00:00:23]NOAA is forecasting a 70% chance of above-normal activity in both the eastern and central Pacific basins, areas that directly impact Hawaii. The eastern Pacific, we're expecting 15 to 22 named storms, 9 to 14 hurricanes, 5 to 9 major hurricanes. And in the central Pacific, we're expecting 5 to 13 tropical cyclones. But even storms that form far from the islands can still become a concern here at home. Many systems that develop in the eastern Pacific track westward and eventually move into the central Pacific waters.

[00:00:57]NOAA experts say one of the biggest reasons for this year's active outlook is El Niño.

[00:01:03]Warmer ocean temperatures and weaker wind shear are creating conditions that make it easier for storms to strengthen in Pacific waters.

[00:01:11]There's a 98% chance of El Niño conditions occurring later this season. In the central and eastern Pacific, the El Niño reduces the vertical wind shear. That reduced wind shear allows storms to organize and intensify more easily, the opposite effect El Niño typically has in the Atlantic. At the same time, NOAA says warmer than average sea surface temperatures are also helping fuel tropical development across the Pacific. This season, the National Hurricane Center is also introducing several new forecasting and warning tools for Hawaii. For the first time, storm surge watches and warnings will be available for the main Hawaiian Islands, similar to systems already used along the US Gulf and East Coast. The alerts are designed to warn residents about dangerous ocean water flooding onto land during a tropical storm. NOAA is also updating its hurricane cone graphics to include inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, giving communities a clearer picture of where impacts could be felt beyond the coastline. Officials say the new tools are aimed at improving communication and helping people better understand storm risks before the impacts begin. The Central Pacific hurricane season runs June 1st through November 30th. NOAA's updated forecast and storm tracking tools are available on the National Hurricane Center website. Carly Oshiro, Island News.