Dmitry Polyanskiy: Nuclear Retaliation Against Europe No Longer Unthinkable

追加: 2026-05-21

[00:00:00]Welcome back. We are joined today by Dimmitri Panski, uh the former permanent representative of the Russian Federation to the UN and now the ambassador and permanent representative of Russia to the OCE, that is the organization for security and cooperation in Europe. So, thank you. It's been a while.

[00:00:21]>> Thank you very much.

[00:00:23]Uh we see that in April uh the Russian defense ministry it released a list of companies and facilities across Europe that uh are involved in producing drones and other components for the war in Ukraine. And uh former President Dit Dimmitri Medvev he defined these as being legitimate targets. Now, of course, we see this growing drone attacks deep into Russia, and this seems to be a growing risk, but uh of a direct war or conflict between Russia and NATO.

[00:01:00]I was wondering, yeah, how are you assessing this development? Are we currently going up the escalation ladder?

[00:01:09]I have no doubts about it and I'm trying to be very vocal during the meetings of uh OC permanent council where where we gather every week uh to discuss uh the uh security situation in Europe. Um the fact is that uh I don't think that there will be a very abrupt change between uh today we are not in direct war and tomorrow we are in direct war because this u margin is very blurred today as you rightly said uh we repeatedly indicated that NATO countries uh especially uh Baltic states uh Poland are becoming more and more involved in military uh actions uh directly or indirectly. Uh how can you for example estimate uh the usage of um long range uh or medium-range missiles uh provided by uh by UK uh by France uh which can be enacted only with the help of uh with the direct help of western specialists. It means that it's not enough for Ukraine uh to decide uh what uh sites to strike. Uh somebody from these countries has to physically push the button together with them. It makes them absolutely complicit and of course they share a responsibility. How can you uh invol couple how can you evaluate the fact that uh we face the situation when the whole of NATO is trying to do its best to provide KEF regime with the weapons uh with artillery uh gunshells guns artillery munitions with uh with drones. Uh so we have to face the whole military machine of NATO and uh to complement what you have said about uh about the uh uh reduction of drones facilities uh that uh we uh indicated uh recently uh opening their coordinates and uh showing that we know the location of these facilities. ities.

[00:03:27]I think yesterday there was a communication from our intelligence specifically about Latia uh where it was shown that uh Latia is on the verge of uh launching uh or helping Ukrainians to launch drones uh directly from its territory. So it's not it's not uh now about providing airspace which was already proven uh for Ukrainian drones uh trying to strike uh northwest of Russia but now it's launching drones from uh Latin territory to the uh destinations in Russia. So where will be this moment when uh somebody will say yes now we're in direct war? Where will be this moment when military will take the decision which they have to take in accordance to all the protocols in accordance to all the military uh routine uh documents. Uh so I don't think it will be uh such a big big uh development. It might come absolutely unexpected when uh people in Europe will find out that uh yes we are in direct confrontation uh with with NATO. Uh I don't think it will be a surprise for anybody in Russia uh to to see this development uh given uh the actions that our neighbors are undertaking.

[00:04:53]>> Yeah, again it's um it's a good point with it's not just the weapons but also the territory. We've seen a lot of uh drones going through the Baltic states and Finland if not through even originating there from and well the NATO secretary general uh Marut he said that while they were Ukrainian drones they wouldn't have been there if it wasn't for Russian aggression. So essentially they're holding Russia accountable for being Russian for being Ukrainian drones in their airspace. Uh um how how are you assessing this? Because if they're not holding Ukraine accountable, telling them not to do this, uh if it's Russia's fault that Ukraine sends drone into EU airspace or NATO airspace, what um I mean, when does this sound like consent or permission or is this more diplomatic language, you think?

[00:05:45]Well, I think that the diplomatic language is almost uh exhausted uh on these occasions and such a perverted logic that you mentioned is a true extension of western perception of this crisis uh when Ukra Ukraine can't be responsible for anything. So they want to start a history from 2022. They claim that nothing uh that happened before this uh date ever existed. So they tried to uh deny our arguments that the war was ongoing there from 2014 that we came there to stop the war when all the means were exhausted when agreements were sabotaged. The agreements that gave very good chance for Ukraine to uh to regain its territorial integrity as far as Donbas was concerned uh to become a normal friendly country towards Russia.

[00:06:44]All this was absolutely dashed and now uh it comes to the uh very uh I would say uh what is the right English word uh strange situation when uh our ambassadors, our shed affairs uh are being summoned to the ministries of these countries and they are being given the protests because of the fact that Ukrainian drones entered the to territory of this states. This happened for example in Latvia and when when my colleague there asked so what what have we to do with the fact that Ukrainian drones uh sent by Ukrainian command entered Latin uh airspace and and made a strike at a certain at certain location in Latia they they said exactly what you said right now that this wouldn't have happened if if not for Russian aggression against Ukraine that's their logic everything is being kind of explained by Russian aggression again against Ukraine. Now less and less people almost nobody is uh using the expression uh unprovoked because before it was the case. I remember my time at the UN when it was like the mantra and provoke Russian aggression blah blah blah all these things. But after the US administration uh showed openness uh to the idea that uh the root causes of this uh of this crisis uh should be also addressed. Uh if we speak about long-term and sustainable solution then at least European countries at a little bit changed their rhetoric and they now do not use this word unprovoked because this is ridic ridiculous. Everybody understands that there were events that uh that were before 2022 which led to the situation where we are today. So again this is a perverted logic. They do not see any anything that is happening in Ukraine. They of course they speak about corruption but it's not uh in the extent that uh they should have spoken about it because corruption is everywhere. Apparently they have already uh written uh the word Zilinski in blog letter in block letters but nobody uh dares to pronounce it publicly. They try to kind of maneuver in order to avoid this uh uh this true reality the the sad reality that the the head of the KEF regime is also the head of this corruption network. Uh and nothing can be said bad about uh about Ukraine. They ignore the fact that uh Ukraine commits terrible abuses of human rights, of the right of uh freedom of religion, of uh political freedoms, uh of the right of uh minorities and so on and so forth. For them, it doesn't exist. Ukraine is always white and fluffy and Russia is always bad. That's their perception of of the world that that they don't want to change.

[00:09:53]Well, uh, besides the drones and the use of NATO territory, we're also seeing some other problems emerging emerging in the Baltic region. Well, essentially in the Baltic Sea. Uh, there's talk about uh putting greater pressure on Khalinrad and uh the UK will now also lead a naval block which is uh set up to confront Russia and there's continuous references to what they have labeled Russia's shadow fleet. Uh how do you how do you see this? What how how close are we to having some red lines crossed here because uh again a lot of this would have been unthinkable during the cold war but now it hardly makes the headlines which is a bit uh concerning.

[00:10:37]I think that the European countries are trying to test the limits of our patience uh and they will quite easily find themselves in the situation which I mentioned at the beginning of our discussion when we are already in direct confrontation and Baltic Baltic Sea seems to be uh very likely uh platform region for such confrontation because there are a lot of actions being uh taken by uh by NATO countries against Russia. some openly speak about uh poss possibly making NATO making making Baltic Sea as only uh NATO internal sea which is of course a kazos belly as you understand uh some crazy people like uh this uh Lithuanian uh minister of defense if I'm not mistaken uh is saying that NATO should uh show to Russia that it is possible that it is in in a in a capacity to strike a lining uh in order to kind of cool down spirits in Moscow.

[00:11:39]I can't imagine more irresponsible uh statements uh at all. So all these belligerent moves uh they again bring us to the situation uh when the direct conflict will be already fact of life and not something that uh some analysts uh warn about. Uh and again this is a very blurred uh line. uh and uh well it can happen any any any moment uh today unfortunately because of the actions that uh that NATO countries are undertaking and all of their provocations and rhetoric uh it doesn't go un unnoticed in my country of course >> well I I spoke a few days ago with um on this program with Sergey Karaganov uh who well as you know has been quite influential in terms of changing Russia's nuclear doctrine and uh also of course advising everyone from Gorbachov to Yelson and Putin and he was making the point that in the past uh he was pushing for essentially restoring Russia's deterrent by striking Europe and he said that he was leading a small minority. He argues that now it has shifted to him representing the the large majority. Do you do you see do you feel a sense about a shifting mood in terms of how Russia should approach uh the Europeans on this issue?

[00:13:07]>> Well, I can tell you that an expert community of Russia which is very vibrant and which uh compasses a lot of different opinions including Sergey Karaganovs who is a very respected scholar. uh the uh idea of using tactical nuclear weapons is no longer a taboo I would say and uh many people uh share these ideas uh this is visible u but it doesn't come still from the uh from the circles that uh take decisions uh on certain issues this is a big difference between expert community and uh the decision making uh circles so uh but the change is visible because many people are really frustrated. Uh many people say that they are already uh waging war against Russia directly. They are already uh killing uh Russian soldiers. They are already participating in uh uh hitting um Russian civilian infrastructure. So what are waiting for?

[00:14:11]This question is uh open and it is pronounced louder and louder. So this is again one of the reasons why I wouldn't exclude any scenarios uh today and uh well unless unless there is uh sobering uh on on on the part of our uh European neighbors I think uh things can get worse any moment.

[00:14:37]But Putin recently said though that the war um will likely come to an end or something along those lines. And it it kind of begs the question, do do you see any pathway to a political solution or a settlement? Uh is there any room for compromise or is there any talk at all at the moment? Uh how is it possible to resolve this issue now? Cuz I hear often the slogans coming out of NATO country like the war will be over when Russia leaves. But again the Europeans sorry the NATO countries you know more or less has stated very openly that when Russia leaves the NATO will move in. So it's it makes it um but again we we don't have any debates beyond this. I was just wondering beyond the I guess uh the media headlines. Do you do you have any indications that uh your colleagues on the European side are are willing to look for some kind of a compromise where the mutual security concerns are accommodated or is there not much at all going on?

[00:15:44]Uh well from my contacts here uh uh on the margins of OEC meetings uh I can tell you that there is a big number of my counterparts who are really uh very preoccupied with what is happening and who are asking questions to me who are engaging with me which is uh not something one would imagine in other contexts including the UN context where we are dealing mostly with the security council members. So here my circle of those with whom I can speak uh the kulars is much wider but at the same time there is a number of countries uh who absolutely uh exclude any change in the uh common efforts towards Russia common position towards Russia and uh for uh if I may use this word they are holding uh their colleagues hostage they don't want to uh allow or any uh any leeway for uh collective efforts was Russia. And you see this is now absolutely clearly manifested in this narrative which has become more and more uh distinct about uh starting negotiations with Russia designating a person who will be able to speak on behalf of everybody. The problem is that uh European Union uh the body uh which was created for uh economic benefit of the whole of the European continent uh is now uh to a large extent I mean those functioners of the European Union top functioners they are to a large extent calling the shots and they are uh kind of keeping everybody uh in a stock uh like shepherds and uh looking at the uh at every attempt to leave this talk and to kind of uh act in an open-minded way. Uh so people are afraid really afraid about repercussions from European Commission from some kind of a uh unfriendly signals to the Soviet capital which is uh too friendly. It was Russia too open from Russia. So this is a very strange situation is absolutely uh against the the common sense. As for the peace efforts, I can tell you that uh well for the path the path for peace is absolutely clear right now and it's absolutely clear that there is a group of countries or individuals let's put it this way elites uh who absolutely don't want to follow this path of peace. They have absolutely different plans. Uh is it because of uh the fact that they have no uh true reckoning of reality or for some other reasons? I don't know. But the fact is that there is a group of elites, group of people who have bet everything on the continuation of this situation. Uh, of course on top of them uh is uh uh is Zilinski. Uh by the way today as you as you might know it is the 7th uh anniversary of his inauguration and uh two years uh that he spent on top of Ukrainian uh power without any legitimate uh reasons so far. So he just preserved power and it's a sad day for the Ukrainians who are now deprived of the possibility to elect anybody else.

[00:19:05]So this person and his henchmen of course they are not interested in any change because they understand that uh that the end of the war will mean the end of the war fight warfare will mean that they will have to be held responsible for what they did for their country. They don't want this change.

[00:19:23]They want their country to fight to the very end even if it's if it means that everybody will be sacrificed in Ukraine.

[00:19:30]Uh there are the others in in Europe who are behind uh this uh this corrupt uh Ukrainian elites uh and who also have I guess uh certain reasons uh to keep it on top of everything and to keep uh the uh situation around corruption scandals at a very very uh low uh heating level.

[00:19:53]uh and these these groups together they are doing everything uh to convince everybody of this very perverted uh I would say wishful thinking that it's everything is good for Ukraine at the battlefield that everything is bad for Russia that Russia is on the brink of losing uh all the strategic advantages I think they're very close to the moment and I said it openly at the last meeting of uh permanent council we're back to the moment when they will again say that Russia has only uh handful of of missiles to launch and that in order to create new missiles we have to uh get uh chips from microwaves and washing machines. I think we saw it before. So these people they absolutely don't care about how weird their statement sound.

[00:20:42]they can do and they will do everything to keep it as it is and to uh keep Ukrainians fighting and uh inflicting as much uh as much harm to Russia as possible even if it will mean that there will be no Ukraine afterwards that the whole of Ukraine will be sacrificed all its uh all its not only men but women as well I think they are very close to this moment and the path to peace is absolutely clear uh we want normal neighbor uh on our borders. There are uh there are regions that uh made their desire to uh to unite with Russia their wish and we accepted them in accordance with their constitution with our with our constitution. It implies that uh the uh territories of these regions should be liberated uh either by military means or by consent of the Ukrainians. And also a big question is how the rest of Ukraine will look like. Uh we will not tolerate the same regime, the remainder of Ukraine, regime that uh absolutely uh is not uh doing its uh duties in terms of respecting the right of Russian speakers. Uh Ukraine is the only country in the world which officially banned Russian language, any language in fact and it does so in absolute absolute contradiction to its constitution provisions. it tramples on its constitution. Uh so we want a normal neighbor. We want a normal country on our borders that will not threaten Russia. Uh we want a country with which we we signed uh treaty on wood neighborhood the moment when uh Russia and Ukraine uh emerged as independent states. A lot of things have been done in Ukraine in contradiction to this treaty. Uh so we want this situation in order to be uh sure that there will be no more problems coming from uh for us uh from the territory of Ukraine. It's as simple as this. So this path is clear. Everybody understands this. But some people prefer to ignore this sad reality that either it's this scenario or we will have to to continue to fight with all the possible uh predictable negative implications for Ukraine as a country and also with uh increasing the risk of direct military clash between between uh Russia and NATO with all the predictable consequences for the European continent. It's as simple as that.

[00:23:19]Well, my last question is just do you see any future for the OCE in terms of um managing European security because um again throughout the cold war we we tried to find a way of overcoming this block politics and since the Helsinki Accords in 75 began to work on uh some formulas and by 1990 we had this charter Paris for a new Europe. There should be no more dividing lines, no more block politics. we should have indivisible security and also on this uh foundation that we established the OCE where you are the of course the ambassador and the permanent representative of the Russian Federation. But uh uh by the mid '90s it became evident that uh uh this essentially inclusive European security architecture where we would seek security with each other against instead of security against each other. It was essentially abandoned in favor of NATO expansion. But now we see that uh there's yeah more talk about NATO fragmenting. The US doesn't have the same commitment. It's simply adjusting to a new international distribution of power. Do you think uh given these changes there's some opportunities to revive uh the idea of an inclusive security architecture again where we not only focus on deterring each other with much weapons as possible instead you know pursuing uh what was the goal for so many years.

[00:24:43]Well, OC is unfortunately now on artificial breathing if I can uh use this expression uh very close to coma because uh the the way this uh organization uh was uh created the way it was seen by our predecessors uh is totally uh contrary to the way it functions right now. This organization uh was uh never meant for block mentality. It was created exactly uh as an alternative to block mentality. It was created as organization which could have provided security for everybody and it uh created a lot of very important documents, a lot of very important I would say tools which are still there.

[00:25:32]Nobody is saying that this or that tool is obsolete and we will never uh use it.

[00:25:37]It's still in the OEC toolbox. But the NATO countries uh instead of using this opportunity and building this security architecture for everybody uh indivisible security including Russia, including the others, they chose another way and uh they uh sacrificed everything for the sake of this uh extent enlargement of NATO uh without any borders without any reasons and NATO is an aggressive block as we all see right now. it has to designate adversary and uh it was only a question of time when they clearly designated Russia as a foe and it is as an adversary they can't leave in a situation when there is no adversary then then it's of course the question is what is the what is the sense of keeping NATO and it it's absolutely detrimental to the profile of OC to its uh founding principles and uh step by step all the treaties all the arrangements all the transparency uh and confidence building measures uh became undermined uh with this behavior of of NATO countries. And today what we see uh represents uh well a very sad picture uh because instead of discussing this uh concepts of uh common security instead of addressing the common challenges that we have uh that we could uh face uh e efficiently by joining forces. uh this platform is uh monopolized by NATO countries and they try to use it as a an instrument in hybrid war against Russia.

[00:27:16]Uh they uh everything is about Ukraine.

[00:27:19]Everything is poisoned by this wrong perception of what happened in Ukraine and why did it happen. They don't want to hear anything. So it's like a trench and uh we are in different trenches there of course and uh well there is no dialect. That's the problem. The dialogue is only uh kind of a dialogue is in cool wars where we can discuss things but it's not a decision making uh level it arises certain aware a awareness I hope uh on behalf of my counterpart with whom I speak but if you look at formal uh side of OC you will see that it's just empty talk and empty threats towards Russia everything is blamed on Russia every event uh is uh used by Ukraan train and its sponsors uh to promote this anti-Russian drosophobic narrative. Uh so it's a very sad picture and of course it raises a lot of questions about the uh the future of this organization and it's added value.

[00:28:22]Uh it can't be another tool for uh for criticizing and uh lashing at Russia or Western countries. They have now council of Europe where we withdrew from. Uh they have of course EU. They can spend hours there lashing at Russia and uh kind of you know uh cheering up themselves with rosophobic rhymes and other things. But this is a serious organization that is supposed to deal with the issues of European security.

[00:28:54]And we are there uh exactly for dealing with this issue. We're still there.

[00:28:59]We're not withdrawing. uh we we still try to use this platform to kind of uh make our approaches, make our assessments uh known uh to our uh European neighbors. uh but if it continues like this I wouldn't bet very much on the future of this organization and uh unfortunately uh there are a lot of countries that uh simply are ready to do everything uh to keep it in the same uh situation on artificial breathing uh ignoring the fact that it can come to to certain coma and uh to complete uh disappearance of OC as a tool That would be of course a pity but this is the scenario which uh they are bringing about uh very quickly.

[00:29:49]>> Yeah. Well, this is the widely recognized as being the problem of a return to block politics that is the alliance system depends on um you know on on continuous conflict. Uh indeed when peace breaks out alliance systems uh tend to begin to break up which is why in the '90s uh this was the main discussion in NATO either out of area or out of business because uh new mission had to be found to keep the power structures together. Uh anyways I've taken enough of your time already. So I just want to thank you again ambassador for your time.

[00:30:22]>> Thank you. You're welcome.