Rupee Outlook: Is $94 the Next Destination?

追加: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]Good morning everyone. This is Amit Pabari, founder and managing director of CR4X. Good. In today's presentation, we are going to cover three aspect. Is rupee moving back towards 97 or 94?

[00:00:12]Second, what is the idle strategy for exporters? Should they cover on Monday morning or wait? And finally, idle strategy for importers. On 20th May, RBI announced that they are going to do buy sell swap worth $5 billion on 26th of May. Now let us understand what impact it is going to have on rupee. So basically buy swap is nothing but by doing that RBI is going to inject rupee liquidity into the system and they are going to go and sell in the forward market. Now if you see the chart historically if you see whenever RBI has done buy sell swap rupee has become stronger. For example when they did between Jan to March 2025 to the tune of $25 billion rupee appreciated from 87 and a half to 84 and a half kind of level. Second in December 2025 they did the similar kind of activity and rupee appreciated from 91 to 89 kind of levels.

[00:01:25]So we can say that this is a positive news from RBI. Second thing what RBI is expected to do is they can go and increase the interest rate just like Indonesian bank has done the same. If RBI goes and increase the interest rate then interest rate differential between India and US will increase and that can result into flow coming into the debt market. To give you a perspective in the calendar year 2026 we have seen that FIS have been selling in the equity side while on the debt side they are positive by 1 billion.

[00:02:07]The last factor which can act as a positive for rupee is cooling crude oil prices. There has been talk that US and Iran conflict is likely to get over and the deal is going to happen. If that happens then there are higher probability that the brand crude oil price which has fallen by 4% last week can fall further and it can move towards 85 kind of levels. If this is going to happen it's a big relief for rupee.

[00:02:42]If you see the chart, technical charts are suggesting that 9620 and 9640 is going to act as a very strong resistance for the rupee and there is 80 to 85% probability that the rupee is likely to move towards 9480 to 9450 kind of levels. Now let us discuss strategy for thin margin exporters. Most of the thin margin exporters like agree exporter or chemical exporter they have taken costing near 96 kind of levels. In the current scenario as the probability of rupee getting stronger is higher we will suggest them between 9550 to 96 kind of level they should hedge 100% of their exports.

[00:03:29]Now let us understand strategy for thick margin exporters like textile exporter or engineering exporters. From last couple of weeks we have been suggesting that they should wait for higher levels.

[00:03:39]Now the time has come and they should participate between 95 50 to 96 kind of level. Now the question is what kind of hedge ratio they can keep. Ideally they should hedge 55 to 60% of their confirm orders. Now let us discuss strategy for importers. Finally, it is good to write and say that Dupy has reversed from 9680 to 95.70 kind of levels and we will suggest importers can keep a strict stop-loss of 96.20 and wait for lower levels of 95 to 94.80.

[00:04:19]With this I will end my today's presentation. Chin namaskar filming next week. Thank you.