⚡️MOSCOW UNDER SIEGE! MILITARY TAKES OVER MOSCOW! PUTIN HAS NOW NO POWER!

Añadido: 2026-05-17

[00:00:00]The centers of Moscow and St. Petersburg are seized. It's an apocalypse there.

[00:00:04]Crowds at ATMs, panic in the center, cards don't work, no cash, protests are starting. Fascists, fascists, you fascists, unbelievable. Rallies are being banned across Russia, courts are upholding the bans. In Moscow, St. Petersburg, Krasnodar, and Penza, protests were not authorized.

[00:00:20]FSB security forces are cracking down on protests.

[00:00:24]The government is tightening control.

[00:00:29]Authorities are jamming the internet.

[00:00:30]People can't call an ambulance, pay for groceries, or just contact each other.

[00:00:34]Against this backdrop, protests, appeals to Putin's security forces are gathering at Bolotnaya. The banking system has failed, oil isn't moving, chaos is engulfing the regions.

[00:00:43]A sensation in Moscow and St. Petersburg, a total catastrophe. The social kitchen revolution has begun.

[00:00:49]Please, if you're going to torment us like this, give us back our landlines and payphones. Russians are in a panic.

[00:00:55]If you're tormenting us like this, give us back our landlines. Russians are having hysterics because the internet is down.

[00:01:02][ __ ] what's wrong with the [ __ ] internet?

[00:01:04]I I'm just like I don't even give a [ __ ] anymore. I just don't give a [ __ ] about anything happening, [ __ ] in this [ __ ] country.

[00:01:11]I'm literally shaking. I don't get it.

[00:01:13]It's just a [ __ ] There's no regular network. You can't call an ambulance or your kid. They're jamming it everywhere. The authorities are jamming literally everything. You can't get online, call an ambulance, or pay at a store. And since I have so much spare time on my hands now, to be honest, I'm just going to hate everything in this country.

[00:01:30]Am I understanding this right? That while we're here in Krasnodar, sitting for days without internet, without normal mobile service, unable to call anyone, at the same time the Americans are flying to the moon?

[00:01:40]Like today they set off for the moon, did I get that right?

[00:01:43]Where are we going? Where are we headed?

[00:01:45]Are we doing everything right? Are we absolutely sure?

[00:01:48]Life in a superpower isn't all sunshine and rainbows. Can you imagine how ineffective [music] the Western sanctions turned out to be that our government was forced to tighten them itself.

[00:01:58]Protesting in Moscow is being banned.

[00:02:00]Security forces are being deployed to Bolotnaya Square.

[00:02:03]Appeals against internet blocking are being filed en masse at this very moment to Vladimir Putin's reception office.

[00:02:09]The Kremlin wants to introduce a tax on VPNs.

[00:02:13]Russists are just weeping and swearing.

[00:02:15]More than half a million Russians plan to leave Russia by the end of the year.

[00:02:20]I work with small businesses. I'm an entrepreneur myself, and my entire job is built around the internet. If they cut off our internet, it completely paralyzes my work and my clients.

[00:02:31]And yesterday, I simply couldn't log into T-Bank and pay for services.

[00:02:36]The fifth year of the war, and only after the internet was cut and VPNs blocked, did Russians start talking about an apocalypse. It seems like people don't really have money for food, and now they have to pay for a VPN, too.

[00:02:48]It's just terrible.

[00:02:50]To get online, you need a router. The router cost per month is 500 rubles. To get online, you need a router and a VPN.

[00:02:57]The cost is 600 rubles a month. To get online, you need a router, VPN, and a proxy server costing 1,500 rubles.

[00:03:05]To access the internet, you need a router, VPN, proxy server, your own DNS resolver, an SSH tunnel via VPS, and an AI agent that reroutes packets with every new block costing 15,000 rubles a month. To get online, you need a satellite, and the satellite cost is 100 million rubles a month.

[00:03:22]You don't need the internet.

[00:03:24]I think that, roughly speaking, an apocalypse will begin.

[00:03:28]Cattle slaughter in Siberia, protests are already on Red Square in Moscow.

[00:03:33]Farmers from Siberia came to Moscow to Red Square to protest. They filed a petition against animal slaughter to Putin and the Russian government.

[00:03:41]The paper was signed by 13 and 50,000 Russists. Paradox, in central Moscow, they're jamming the internet, but how how do you pay for parking?

[00:03:52]The money will still be deducted anyway.

[00:03:54]Only it won't be payments, but a 5,000 fine. Cashless payments aren't working. Sberbank and VTB aren't working.

[00:04:02]>> Look at me.

[00:04:03]Why the hell do I need this cashless stuff?

[00:04:06]I only use cash. What's up with the cashless? It's not working, unfortunately. Just bring back landline home phones so we can at least call an ambulance.

[00:04:14]Digital money? I have a question. How are you going to introduce digital money?

[00:04:19]If I just came for groceries and I want to pay, oh, her terminal isn't working because there's no internet. And how are we going to deal with digital money, damn it? How?

[00:04:31]This is just This is just a mockery of some kind. Systemic collapse of banks in Russia. A systemic failure of the entire banking system occurred in Russia.

[00:04:40]All major banks, including Sber, have gone down. Banks in Moscow and Petersburg have stopped working en masse. Cards aren't going through, ATMs aren't dispensing cash. People stand in lines for days and can't pay for even basic things. Failures hit several regions at once. Moscow, St. Petersburg, and all the way to Siberia. Roskomnadzor is to blame for everything. All this coincided with the authorities' attempts to block internet services. In fact, the system didn't just fail under the load, it began to collapse.

[00:05:09]And at this moment, there's a record demand for cash in Russia. ATMs suddenly became a place of pilgrimage for Muscovites, Petersburgers, and other Russians.

[00:05:18]How stealthily the plan to lure cash out of people is being carried out.

[00:05:23]First, they said, "Put everything in accounts. There are high interest rates.

[00:05:26]It's very profitable. Cool. Great."

[00:05:28]Everyone ran and put it in.

[00:05:30]Now, there's a withdrawal ban and online banks aren't working. I'm [ __ ] shocked at what we've come to.

[00:05:36]I just came to the pharmacy. I'm very sick. It's just very hard for me to even walk, live, exist.

[00:05:43]They tell me, first of all, my bill came to 1,800, and that's with cheap generic brands.

[00:05:49]I'm just in shock, almost 2,000.

[00:05:52]Well, that's fine.

[00:05:54]I can't even pay for them.

[00:05:57]They told me nothing works, no cards, no SBP.

[00:06:00]And I had to go home, and it's good I had cash at home because I sold the sofa and they gave me the deposit in cash.

[00:06:06]I'm just in shock.

[00:06:08]I just can't wrap my head around it that we live in a reality where we can't pay for medicine at a pharmacy.

[00:06:13]And not even because they cost an arm and a leg, but because we simply can't.

[00:06:17]Payment failures, glitchy apps, rumors about freezing deposits, friends for the motherland's military needs.

[00:06:23]So, most likely Russia is starting to mass confiscate the deposits of Russians.

[00:06:28]An atmosphere of stability, as they say, a total nightmare howling on the moors.

[00:06:33]Russians, run, the iron curtain is closing. I don't know what's happening, but if you can, run and withdraw cash because you'll be left without it, just like I was.

[00:06:40]I don't know if it's like this nationwide. I don't know if it's with all banks.

[00:06:44]But, Sber isn't working for us. I was in three different stores this morning.

[00:06:47]Payment by card or QR code is unavailable.

[00:06:50]The Kremlin and the State Duma are preparing a total mobilization. Putin is preparing to announce a total mobilization. The borders are closing.

[00:06:58]Russia is turning into a totalitarian state.

[00:07:01]We'll discuss all this with top economist Igor Lipsits right now.

[00:07:05]There's an old Russian saying, make a fool, yes, pray to God and he'll bash his forehead in.

[00:07:11]That's Roskomnadzor exactly. Just Yes.

[00:07:15]100%. Well, what was said once always holds true. This is that very story.

[00:07:19]They started fighting VPNs, but you have to understand that people only just learned these words. By the way, a euphemism has appeared in Russia. No one says VPN, everyone says KVN. It's not such a ban.

[00:07:34]Well, yeah, the word VPN is like lousy, but KVN hasn't been banned. So, everyone says, "Did you install KVN?" Yes. "Which KVN do you have?" Oh, what a nightmare.

[00:07:44]Well, it's madness. It's a country going crazy and it's very interesting to watch.

[00:07:49]So, the trouble is that VPNs weren't created to bypass some Roskomnadzor. But a lot of professional systems rely on them.

[00:07:57]In particular, it's long been known that almost the entire banking system works continuously with VPNs as a way to protect itself.

[00:08:04]And so when they started totally destroying the very idea of VPNs, they interfered with the functioning of the banking economy.

[00:08:11]And there was a very, you know, telling episode just now when a very patriotic, very loyal lady trying very hard to please the authorities, this lady, Natalia Kaspersky.

[00:08:22]Right.

[00:08:23]The ex-wife of Kaspersky, the antivirus guy. Right. She has her own company. I think it's called Infowatch. They deal with fighting threats to internet systems and internet security, a large, well-known one. She sits on all the presidential councils.

[00:08:37]So, she's like, well, just completely proper. But here, as they say, the blow was dealt to everything.

[00:08:42]And she well took the liberty of writing on Telegram that this is madness, that it's God knows what. You can't fight VPNs. It's a nightmare. It's destroying the economy.

[00:08:51]She was immediately called on the carpet by the director of Roskomnadzor.

[00:08:54]He brainwashed her and she immediately, you know, published an apology.

[00:08:58]I didn't understand, Father. A woman spoke out of foolishness. Please forgive a foolish woman.

[00:09:03]This is, well, just exactly that kind of story. So, I mean, even those who are, well, very patriotic towards the authorities, but when they start destroying the business they make money from, they start wailing.

[00:09:15]What on earth is happening? Have you all lost your minds? How are we supposed to live? Because indeed, over the last few weeks, there were these crazy videos that they were all filming about how to live like that girl in Moscow wailing, what are you doing? Do you even realize what you're doing? I drove to work and now I can't get back home. I don't know the way home.

[00:09:35]And the GPS isn't working because they shut everything down.

[00:09:38]How am I going to get back home? It was just a total catastrophe for that girl.

[00:09:43]So, this is the kind of story where the insane Russian government can no longer stop itself and the logic of events leads it to making crazy decisions.

[00:09:52]And so, it follows these crazy decisions step by step, destroying life itself, embittering the population, which you'd think you shouldn't do if you want the people to support you.

[00:10:02]But, they can't stop. They're banging their heads against the wall and causing resentment.

[00:10:06]And Russians are now indeed starting to try and withdraw cash from banks as quickly as possible.

[00:10:12]Well, because in many places Now, people in Russia are also clever.

[00:10:16]Now, when you go to buy something, they tell you, you know, we're having glitches, the card machine isn't working. If you have cash, we'll sell it. If it's by card, then get lost.

[00:10:25]Well, because they're also evading taxes. That's why.

[00:10:28]Plus, when you pay in cash, they give a discount. So, Russia has started, well, how should I put it? A sort of unconscious and unspoken campaign of non-support, of resistance to the authorities. It's starting to try and pull away.

[00:10:42]I'd say it's a very pathetic one, of course, but a campaign of civil disobedience.

[00:10:48]It's starting to happen because they hit where it hurts, the internet.

[00:10:52]After all, over 20 years, everyone's gotten used to it.

[00:10:55]I was recently sent a wonderful sketch of how a few old ladies in a church, during the service, started figuring out how to get back on Telegram.

[00:11:03]One of the ladies turned out to be tech-savvy and started explaining how to enable proxy mode in Telegram.

[00:11:09]And all the ladies got distracted from the office from the priest and urgently wanted her to set up that proxy system on all their phones so they could communicate, because without Telegram, there's just no life anymore.

[00:11:20]Well, it's some kind of crazy story.

[00:11:22]That is, Russians suddenly found themselves in a state of war, even though they had been denying this war.

[00:11:28]And now the war has come home. It's in every smartphone.

[00:11:31]And for Russians, this is a very unpleasant cold shower.

[00:11:34]Gennady Anatolyevich, now explain how the internet shutdown will affect the entire Russian economy. Because from what I can see, yes, the banking system has collapsed. Yes, Vurbank collapsed.

[00:11:44]Everyone wrote about it. And small and medium businesses come out and say that we cannot work. All advertising is on the internet. All sales are online. So, this is starting to affect everyone.

[00:11:55]What will happen next in your opinion?

[00:11:57]Now, they're proposing to introduce a tax on VPN. And in general, could to as you say this civil disobedience of a mass segment of society? A kitchen revolution? Well, it there's no revolution. Russians aren't capable of fighting for their rights, but they'll passively try to bypass the state. It's always been like that. Oh my goodness.

[00:12:15]It's always been that you know, the state says one thing and people quietly, you know, fight the state, steal from the state. We'll say, in the Soviet Union, what was the campaign of disobedience? We just stole everything we could. It was standard practice. And basically, almost everyone in their positions swiped something. And it wasn't even considered shameful because everyone understood that the state was robbing us, taking everything away. So, workers swiped some metal, collective farmers hid produce, you know. Well, I don't know who swiped what, but it was such a standard phenomenon simply because the government was anti-human, inhumane, oppressive, and violated the population. The population naturally tried to fight it somehow as much as they could so as not to, as they say, get caught in the crossfire or end up behind bars, but they resisted nonetheless. Now, Russians are starting to do exactly the same thing. Passively, but trying to somehow bypass the state.

[00:13:02]And small and medium businesses, which have had it really bad this year, their tax conditions were changed and many will likely go bankrupt. So, they're trying to save themselves, trying to switch to cash transactions to hide income from the tax authorities. The tax authorities, of course, threaten terrible punishments for this, but you know, you can't put a tax inspector in every little shop at every stall, right?

[00:13:21]So, people are trying to go into cash, meaning buyers are ready to participate because they're also offered a discount.

[00:13:27]They give up to a 20% discount if you pay in cash. Well, naturally people want cash. Banks try not to issue cash, but Russians by all means, you know, go for it. I think a very good streak has started for bank employees now. They're given bribes, of course, so that they'll let you withdraw cash. This is Russia after all, so everything that happens here is very clear. Well, so there's a kind of passive resistance going on.

[00:13:47]They won't turn into anything active, but passively it will be destruction.

[00:13:51]And this, you know, is very similar to the final years of the USSR. After all, the USSR collapsed and everyone tries to forget it, but it did collapse, right?

[00:13:59]The giant power where there was an army, where there was the KGB, where there was party control, and it seemed no one would blink or flinch. Everyone would live obediently under the rule of the Communist Party, but the country fell apart. Everyone was terribly sick of it.

[00:14:11]People were so tired of living in the USSR. It was so disgusting to live in the USSR that when basically someone finally came along and offered some alternative, as Yeltsin did, everyone cheerfully said, "Oh, give us Yeltsin.

[00:14:24]Down with the Gorbachev. Down with the USSR." It's the same thing now. Russians have already suffered so much that if anyone in the elite comes out to the square and says, "Guys, let's If we go and seize power for a peaceful Russia with a free internet, it'll suddenly turn out that there's a huge mass of supporters.

[00:14:40]They won't come out on their own, but if someone takes the risk, they'll immediately say, "Oh, we're with you with all our hearts."

[00:14:47]Igor Vladimirovich, I was just discussing the situation with Gennady Gudkov. He said the next stage is that banks will be seizing Russian deposits, I mean the deposits of Russians.

[00:14:57]You spoke about this well, maybe 6 months ago. We discussed this with you.

[00:15:01]But could this happen right now?

[00:15:04]Well, when I started talking, I started not 6 months ago, but about 2 years ago, and many colleagues condemned me for those words, saying it was speculation that no one would do it because it undermines trust in the banking system, which is important for the state. And besides, taxes are taken from citizens' income, so it's all beneficial for the state. No one will lay a hand on it.

[00:15:24]But, the thing is like you can say whatever you want about me, but the point is that I'm not the one raising this topic. People close to the authorities are. I keep telling people that there are three statements on this matter that are significant and need to be considered.

[00:15:37]The main thing is that they all say the same thing.

[00:15:39]So, the first to speak was none other than the Russian Finance Minister, Mr. Siluanov, who two or three years ago, I don't remember, maybe even three, said that Russians have too much money in banks, 40 trillion.

[00:15:50]This money isn't working for the economy, and it should be somehow drawn into the economy for investment.

[00:15:56]These are completely crazy words, because no competent economist could say such a thing. It's total nonsense.

[00:16:02]No money just sits in banks. It's all working in the economy day and night.

[00:16:05]So, it's all rubbish.

[00:16:07]But, he said it, the Finance Minister.

[00:16:10]Then a year later, this topic was picked up by, accordingly, Putin's Chief Economic Advisor, Oreshkin.

[00:16:16]Who also said, "What a misfortune, 60 trillion is lying idle with the population in Russia. It should be transferred to some interest-free long-term fund and invested to improve the lives of Russian citizens." A completely crazy phrase.

[00:16:30]How to take money from the population again, but he said it, the presidential aid, not some retired Professor Lipsits, but the presidential advisor. The other day, another quite well-known character, Kirill Androsov, a professor at the Higher School of Economics, spoke.

[00:16:45]Former head of the Russian Government Staff, member of the Methodological Council of Rosstat, well, everything you can imagine. That is such a person, what what's called a first-rank state advisor. So, it's not just some They're all in stripes, Dasha, all in stripes there.

[00:17:00]And he says again, "What's going on, comrades? We have 67 trillion lying there.

[00:17:05]This is a terrible overhang. It's a third of Russia's GDP. This money isn't working. Something must be done urgently so it can work for the Russian economy."

[00:17:13]These are, I repeat, constantly insane words. This money circulates in the economy day and night.

[00:17:18]It works, it services credit flows. How can it not be working? But there is a very strong desire to lay a hand on this money.

[00:17:24]I'm constantly being asked, how can this even be? Well, it can happen in a very simple way.

[00:17:30]No one will confiscate this money, they'll just freeze it.

[00:17:33]And for a while they'll limit your rights to use that money. This will provide a huge benefit to the state.

[00:17:39]Look on these deposits held in banks in the Bank of Russia, they accrue about 12 trillion rubles in interest payments annually.

[00:17:46]So if this money doesn't go to depositors and is used to cover the deficit, the Russian state will be able to fully cover the budget deficit.

[00:17:53]And there might even be something left over. So it's a very profitable operation. Don't tell me it's unprofitable, wrong, or unreasonable and that no one would ever do it.

[00:18:01]Then why are all these three figures not marginal ones to say the least, not from the diaspora.

[00:18:08]They kept repeating the same line that the people's money is just sitting idle.

[00:18:12]It's total nonsense, but they're all saying the same thing as if scripted.

[00:18:15]Maybe someone did write it for them, I don't know.

[00:18:18]Igor Vladimirovich, let's discuss how long the war with Iran will last because I saw the latest Time cover, Trump doesn't know how to get out of the war with Iran. As I understand it, Trump is already prepared to give up. And these angry, hysterical posts of his where he I keep wanting to say Twitter, but it's X now. Oh Lord. Yes, X. Anyway, yes, X.

[00:18:36]I just can't. It's still Twitter to me.

[00:18:38]In short, X, where he writes, "Damn it, for heaven's sake, when will you finally unblock the Strait of Hormuz? What kind of infantilism is this, Igor Vladimirovich? Strong men don't write things like that, they just act. What's going on?"

[00:18:52]Well, Dasha, I understand it's hard for you to imagine such a character leading a country like that.

[00:18:56]It's hard for me to imagine as well.

[00:18:58]It's hard for everyone to imagine, you know, honestly, you can't even imagine.

[00:19:02]I was reading a column today by an American political commentator, a political scientist, and he suddenly started discussing demographics. I thought, what's gotten into him?

[00:19:12]When he writes, "I no longer have the strength to comment on Trump or the Iranian troops."

[00:19:17]And Netanyahu, can I please talk about something else? I need a break or my brain will boil over. So, that's the situation. Not just you, but American political scientists are starting to go crazy watching what Trump does, how he behaves, and how there's no victory.

[00:19:30]Over the last 2 days, there's been a very interesting discussion that it seems Iran is winning in the oil market because a new situation has arisen. Let me explain. Essentially, because of the situation Uh-huh. Yeah, I see. in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian oil has become a coveted commodity.

[00:19:47]So, in effect, the oil sanctions against Iran are collapsing. Of course. And Iran will set the tone on the world market selling more oil than before the war, potentially earning more than before the war, shaking off sanctions, and generally making good money thanks to Trump. It's a crazy story, but it seems that in terms of maneuverability and cunning and political flexibility, that the Iranians have outplayed Trump.

[00:20:12]Now, that's quite an unexpected story, but overall, the intellectual level of the American administration leads to some very strange positions. So, as you know, the Americans have requested a 45-day peaceful break in the war. I don't know what they They swore that they would finish it just now. That literally in 24 hours it would all be over. And then they asked for a 45-day delay. Then they'll come out of it and say, "Well, we've solved all the tasks."

[00:20:35]And leave behind God knows what.

[00:20:37]But they've certainly made a mess of things there, and it seems that strangely enough, despite insane losses, Iran might actually emerge as the strategic winner in this war by shaking off the sanctions that no one even looks at anymore.

[00:20:49]Because as long as there's an oil shortage, everyone is ready to buy oil, even from Iran, and there's little the Americans can do about it. So, that's the picture.

[00:20:57]But for Russia, it's a disaster because Iranian oil will go straight to India and China.

[00:21:02]And it will displace Russian oil from there. So, Russia is going to lose. It might lose more on this than on the attacks on the Baltic ports. Well, that's the situation. We are looking at a very complex picture here.

[00:21:13]There are many brush strokes, many characters, a multi-figure composition.

[00:21:17]It's constantly changing.

[00:21:19]So, every time you have to wipe your glasses and see what we have now. Now we've wiped our glasses and we see that strategically Iran seems to be winning.

[00:21:27]Although technically in military terms it has lost an enormous amount.

[00:21:32]Yes, Igor Vladimirovich, absolutely.

[00:21:34]You've said something fundamental.

[00:21:36]Everything must be viewed in context.

[00:21:39]That's very important. Context matters because then what seems like one thing in one context looks like something else in another.

[00:21:46]I'd like to discuss a very important topic with you. This is also about context. It's about the farmers and their position. So, they came to Moscow to Red Square, gathered there, and as I understand it, signed a petition.

[00:21:59]They wrote to Putin. First 30,000, then 40,000, now 50,000 have signed.

[00:22:04]And in parallel, almost in the same breath, this is when last weekend they were planning to hold protest actions against the blocking of the internet in all key cities including Bolotnaya Square, and they started arresting students. That is, well, the youth who wanted to come out, who expressed their desire, they were literally arrested there. They were given, I think, 14 or 15 days.

[00:22:24]And accordingly, the National Guard and security forces surrounded Bolotnaya Square.

[00:22:29]How would you even call this? Is this a social phenomenon? It's clear that nothing happened, but still.

[00:22:36]Well, how should I put it?

[00:22:39]Russian youth, until recently, were very apathetic, I would say, and politically inactive. To me, this is quite curious.

[00:22:45]I mean, it's predictable, but still, it's curious.

[00:22:49]The thing is, I remember well what the student unrest was like during the Vietnam War.

[00:22:54]Mhm. It wasn't fun there, either. The police were beating students there, too.

[00:22:58]Absolutely ruthlessly. Look for newsreel footage, you'll see them being beaten with batons for no good reason, dragged into cars. Then overall, it wasn't fun at all, but nevertheless, American students came out in droves against the Vietnam War. It was such a very powerful campaign. And in general, gradually it began to pressure the politicians and the war was brought to an end. In Russia, nothing like that happened.

[00:23:20]The students are silent. The students aren't protesting.

[00:23:23]There are many signs that the students even somehow strongly support Putin seeing him as a strong leader. It's a striking story. He's ruining their lives. He's breaking their future, yet they support him. It's complete madness of some kind, but a generation has grown up, a generation that has lived under Putin their whole lives. Take note of that.

[00:23:43]They're over 20 years old. They grew up under Putin.

[00:23:46]He is like their entire life. It's much like the people who believed in Stalin that Stalin was the light, Stalin was the father, life without Stalin was impossible and then rushed to his funeral, dropping everything just to say goodbye to their dear father. That's how it was in Russia with the youth now.

[00:24:02]But times have come when they've stepped on the most sacred thing for a young Russian, the internet.

[00:24:09]And without it, well, as they say, a kind of narcotic withdrawal begins.

[00:24:13]Because let's understand that for a modern young person, the internet is a drug addiction.

[00:24:17]And they start having withdrawals.

[00:24:19]Withdrawals are starting.

[00:24:21]So, of course, they've been put in a withdrawal situation and they have information hunger.

[00:24:25]They can't do anything. They're completely bewildered.

[00:24:28]It's like the country was civilized just yesterday. Everything was fine, as they say. Everything was all set, but then it all suddenly came undone. Everything fell apart and you can't do anything.

[00:24:39]You have this, well, like information starvation starting. Yes, what's called an acute situation of unmet needs.

[00:24:45]So, it begins. Where this will lead, I don't know.

[00:24:49]In the Russian Empire, if you remember, when they fought the students, one of them later became Lenin, if you remember. That was the story.

[00:24:55]Whether this will happen now, I cannot say.

[00:24:58]The country is different, the context is different.

[00:25:00]But that a situation is growing where the authorities with their clumsy crude work are irritating more and more people, that is happening.

[00:25:07]Once again, I understand it this way that never will Russians take to the streets against Putin over the war. They won't even really hold rallies like that.

[00:25:16]They won't start a revolution, but as soon as someone in the elite raises their voice and tries to oust Putin, it will turn out that they have huge crowds of millions of supporters who will say, "Yes, we're with you. Down with Putin." That's when you'll see incredible rallies where the youth will shout, "What? Down with him, down with him, down with him." Only then when there's someone who has the courage to step out first and some security officials go with them, only then will it all come to light that everyone has long hated Putin and everyone has long dreamed of toppling him. As long as none of the security forces or the elite raises their voice, everyone will say, "Yes, well, there are some local mistakes here." As it was called under Stalin, excesses on the ground, yes, excesses on the ground.

[00:25:57]Igor Vladimirovich, could mobilization be declared? And for example, after that, could the security forces act?

[00:26:02]Here's what we've noticed now. Attention to. Firstly, this is of course a conspiracy theory that Shoigu is preparing a plot, then the generals are preparing a plot, then well, the defense minister has the Shoigu conflict. After that, Russian war correspondents start saying, "Oh well, that's it. The war is at a stalemate. It's time to end it.

[00:26:20]There's a huge number of deaths, looting. We can't capture anything.

[00:26:24]Ukraine is advancing." Well, I mean, and this is all being said by Russian war correspondents. Do you think this could be the precursor to what you just mentioned? Like, relatively speaking, the security forces a coup inside the Kremlin.

[00:26:37]Well, that will depend on whether people continue to profit from the war. Still, let's understand, I've told you this before too, that in Russia, there are many beneficiaries of the war. Roughly 20% of the Russian population benefits from the war, getting rich from the war.

[00:26:50]That's 26 to 28 million people, including family members and children, of course. They're making money on the war. For them, the war is a kind of time for good earnings. And as long as they have these earnings, they'll be happy about the war and demand its continuation. Well, don't be fooled.

[00:27:04]This war isn't just Putin's now. Many people support it because, well, it provides a good income. 80% lose from the war, but 20% are making money. These 20% stand like a wall around Putin saying, "Keep going. We must go to the end. We can't stop. Since we're in a war, we must go to a victorious end."

[00:27:20]But if the money stops flowing, then this patriotism, this enthusiasm will start to fade. And it looks that way because money is tight, things are difficult with money. The first 3 months with the budget money were absolutely insanely bad. There was a huge deficit of 3 and 1/2 trillion rubles, and 3.8 was planned for the whole year, but here it was in 3 months. So, in that sense, it's a big problem. So, therefore, a lot will depend on whether Russia actually receives additional money from high oil prices, whether it can use that money to drown out the discontent of these war beneficiaries. And if it does, then Putin will be able to fight peacefully for a very long time, and no one will fight against him or speak out. If there's still not enough money and many problems remain unresolved, and people feel that just yesterday they were feeding so well off the war, and now there's a lot of trouble from the war, but little money, then this unrest will begin, which could lead to a change of power and even the collapse of the Russian Federation. A whole palette of possibilities appears here.

[00:28:14]Igor Vladimirovich, do you think Putin might declare a mobilization, which everyone I mean, everyone is writing about today? I think it's completely unrealistic, impossible. This is a monetary issue. It depends again on how much money comes in from oil. Well, I understand that people are probably tired of hearing me talk only about money and more money, but what can you do? Well, human society is structured so that everything here is determined by money. There's no getting away from it.

[00:28:36]The trouble is that it seems the reservoir of surplus people in Russia is starting to run dry, right? In Russia,