SCOTUS Drops Nuclear Political Bomb

追加: 2026-05-01

[00:00:00]The Supreme Court just dropped a political nuclear bomb with their ruling on the Voting Rights Act, a six to3 conservative ruling saying you cannot have racially gerrymander mandered congressional districts. What this means as of right now, it means that two congressional districts that are Democrat based on race in Louisiana are going to have to be redrawn, likely eliminating the Democrat seats in Louisiana, giving Republicans plus two.

[00:00:31]the bigger picture. There are around 30 congressional seats nationwide that are drawn up due to the VR based on race.

[00:00:42]With the ruling from the Supreme Court that it is unconstitutional, we could see a cascade with all of these red states now technically being required to redraw their congressional maps, not just gerrymandering, but eliminating long Democrat held seats under the VRA. This could swing things for the Republicans between 30 and 40 congressional seats. The big question is, will the Republicans actually have the balls to do it? Well, the good news for Republicans is that it doesn't actually require that much effort from Republican governance because individuals in these states or in these districts specifically can file lawsuits now that the attorneys general of these states would not be able to defend because the Supreme Court already said no. It's like the end of Roie Wade almost. They didn't overturn the VRA.

[00:01:38]They effectively said you can use this now against these districts. Meaning if you live in one of these districts that's jerrymandered based on race, you can sue saying it's racially discriminatory against me to have a a a district drawn up based on other races.

[00:01:55]This is a nuclear bomb. The Republican party winning the midterms is now in play if this happens. So here's the news from the Guardian. US Supreme Court rules Louisiana must redraw its congressional map in landmark case. The def decision effectively guts major section of Voting Rights Act, the last remaining provision of the 1965 Civil Rights Law that prevents racial discrimination in voting. Let me just set the record straight and give you the quick gist. The 1965 president basically said, "Hey, look, there's a lot of black people. They are systemic racism, so they should have congressional representation." So they drew up these maps for the purpose of correcting past injustice. By today's standard, the Supreme Court's basically said that's discriminatory against other races. Now we're we're well past this. In fact, Alto made the argument that it seemed like the framers of this law intended for some kind of sun setting that it was to deal with something specific at the time that we are not dealing with today.

[00:02:54]So that being said, they have issued their ruling. You cannot have congressional districts based on race.

[00:03:03]Why does that matter? Well, my friends, we've got this from the persistent Scott Presler. He says two of Pennsylvania's congressional districts were drawn as a result of the unconstitutional race-based Voting Rights Act requirements. The RNC should not just focus on southern states, but must also sue Pennsylvania for its illegal maps.

[00:03:25]Sue Pennsylvania. Where's the thing? You don't need the RNC to do it. Anyone who lives in these districts will have legal standing because you are being impacted by this. And here's where it gets really crazy. I asked Grock, break it down for me, brother. Nearly all 20 to 30 of the VRA mandated congressional districts in Republican leaning states are held by Democrats. That means if we go on the high end, imagine a Congress with only 180 Democrat votes, 230 or some odd Republican ones, and I'm going to lay it out there a little bit more. It's actually upwards of 40. But I will throw a wrench in the spokes for the Democrat or purple states. The issue here is that if you sue to change to redraw these racist maps, if the state is held by Democrats, they will take the opportunity to redistrict right now and they will make more Democrat districts.

[00:04:25]So they'll say, "Okay, we won't use race as the basis. We'll use something else."

[00:04:31]And this could result in every single state in the country being redrawn right now in the most insane of ways. Now, the end result, I think, is because the VRA largely affects Democrat districts in red states. That was the point. This is going to put the Republican party back in play. Polls be damned. And the funny thing to me is I'm going to pull up here. We got from from Khi 2026 midterms balance of power has not adjusted for this. I'm not recommending anybody do anything. Don't spend money on that.

[00:05:02]Don't listen to me. I'm just saying I am surprised we have only seen a twopoint jump in Republican control of the House and Senate. Pollwise, Republicans are set to win the Senate. Pollwise, it is leaning Democrat. So, right now, we don't know for sure if it's going to be a Democrat House and Senate or a Democrat House or the Republican Senate, but I actually believe based on this move from the Supreme Court, if these lawsuits get filed across the board in every one of these districts, these states have no choice. The Supreme Court has already said it is unconstitutional.

[00:05:37]How would they not take this action?

[00:05:40]What's their argument? What could they possibly do? Delay, maybe. But 6 months is a long time. And then if they don't respond, this could call the election itself into question. If they move forward with elections in what has been determined to be unconstitutional congressional districts, then you're going TO HAVE WAY MORE LAWSUITS. And I don't know how that ends up, but this is going to be a wacky and wild midterm.

[00:06:02]So, all I can say is typically, well, I'll put it this way. This is particularly esoteric, right? When you're reading the news and someone says something like uh you know Trump announces this guy will head the Fed, everybody runs to buy in the prediction market to try and get it in before it flips 99% and it can make a profit. I don't think people who normally buy understand ramifications of this SCOTS ruling and how it is the domino knock being knocked over that will result in Republicans having a much much better chance of winning. Not to mention, guys, the latest poll from Harvard Harris X is that Republicans are tied with Democrats. So, I'm curious what you think.

[00:06:42]>> I mean, I think it is a big deal. We know that every congressional district is probably racebased. So, I don't know what Pandora's box is open from this, but I would say also at the same exact time, you know, if we want to win elections, it's always the left that uses all these redistricting and gerrymandering. I feel like that's kind of what they're an expert in. And um if we want to win, we got to win because we are the more popular opinion. We're the populist movement. Like we don't need to worry about gerrymandering and we just have to overcome it. And I know that sounds whatever cliche or too anecdotal.

[00:07:14]I just um I don't think this is as big a deal for some reason because I feel like the district's already gerrymandered anyway. And I just don't know if they change that much if we lose that many different seats. Do you think it'll be 30 seats?

[00:07:23]>> Have you looked at Louisiana's map, bro?

[00:07:26]Well, I figured it's probably all racebased, but I mean, you're going to >> So, Louis, this this case alone has just eliminated two Democrat districts right now. It's done.

[00:07:35]>> Well, that's good. That is good. That seems like it's a good thing. But I also know that, you know, they tried to redistrict part of California and now they're going to get more Democrat seats in Congress.

[00:07:45]>> Indeed, the what what we might end up seeing right now is a cascade effect where every blue state here here's the problem. Actually, let me put it like this. say blue states will re redistrict. But the problem is blue states are almost already gerrymandered the point of giving Democrats extra seats. You take a look at Massachusetts, 36% Republican, zero Republican seats.

[00:08:06]That didn't make any sense. You take a look at Illinois. Let me let me pull up Illinois's map for you.

[00:08:11]>> It does happen in the conservative side more where it's a more conservative state, but then they have less, you know, less representation.

[00:08:17]>> Well, no, because the VRA, the red states have weird race-based gerrymander districts. Look at Illinois 13.

[00:08:25]They intentionally created a strip.

[00:08:27]Could you imagine you live in like some rural middle of Illinois town, but they just have this line of fire going over over your house to put you in a Democrat district? Look at this. Rockford and Bloomington and Poria. They create this weird strip that wraps around to so they can get these Democrat districts and make a fake congressional district. Let me show you what Louisiana looks like.

[00:08:49]This is what ultimately lost. Look at the sixth and the second district.

[00:08:54]Is that not the dumbest district you've ever seen?

[00:08:56]>> And they got the biggest cities, true poor, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans.

[00:09:00]>> Indeed, these were drawn up based on race and they have to eliminate them.

[00:09:03]And now the expectation is this. When they redraw this, there will be no Democrat districts in Louisiana.

[00:09:10]>> Obama tweeted out about this. He has kind of the counter opinion about like, you know, protecting minorities and making sure they still have a voice in the in the republic because back in the day, I think that a lot of this stems from back when they would block bust and that all the rich white dudes cuz they came from money in the 1890s or whatever and the black people had been mostly descendant of slavery, so they didn't have as much money. The the white rich rich dudes would get together and be like, "No one can move in. We're not it's it's technically we're not doing it like on purpose, but we'll just say no to any black people that want to move in." So, they would make them all It's called blockbusting. and they make them all move out. So then the district is this 15 block radius of rich white dudes controlling and so they had to like carve out or they felt like they had to empower the people that lived in in the drags on the outskirts. But it's been it's like the balloon's been inflated and bubbled so many times that it just popped like that that in the insanity is observant at this point.

[00:10:02]>> If if they eliminate VRA districts, this is what the South will look like.

[00:10:09]>> Wow. That's that's huge. Do you think this is likely to happen because an everyday citizen can put forth the lawsuit as opposed to expecting Republican operatives to do it?

[00:10:18]>> That's the key right there is that anybody So if you live in a in a in a racially jerrymandered district, you have standing. You are agrieved now under this unconstitutional action. It still will come down to how the state responds. The attorneys general are going to be presented with an interesting uh conundrum for so for those that are not familiar how this works. If you go to a state, if or if you live in a state that you have a problem with, or let's say you have a problem with your state and uh you're like, I'm going to sue the state, the lawsuit goes to the attorney general of that state, who then determines whether or not he's going to defend the state from the action. There are many instances where the attorney general might say, you know what, I actually can't win this case. And so let's say you sue your state's um power uh you know agency or whatever and you you've got something like hey the fees that they've put forward on on electric or regulatory fees they've added to electric bills from these private companies they are unconstitutional. The attorney general reads it and goes okay.

[00:11:17]He then goes to the the regulatory agency and says I will lose if I try to defend you on this one. I can try to defend you on it, but I'm going to tell you we will just waste money and it's not going to happen. More importantly, if the governor tells the attorney general not to defend it, it's just done. So, if various political action groups or individuals file lawsuits in these districts saying they are known racially gerrymandered VRA districts, there is still the prove it. What is the grounds by which these are determined to be? And they may try to make that argument in court. Okay, you got to prove it in court. this district came about because of this may actually be very easy to prove considering Democrats attempts to defend them has already created this pretext where they've said we did it for this reason you can you know Obama's quote right now about how this is about fighting back against Jim Crow okay agreed now you got to get rid of them if the governors the state legislators just say you're right they tell the attorney general we're not going to defend it more importantly the state could just do it >> the state could then the governor could say Look, we just heard what the Supreme Court said. We have no choice. We're redrawing these maps. So, I I do think that this is more likely to happen because private individuals now have uh have standing to take action. Whether or not it'll happen fast enough, I don't know. But I kind of think the reason this is happening, it's intentional in the Republican playbook. They went after the VRA intentionally because they want to win the midterms based on redrawing maps. That's why Trump told Texas to redraw. Democrats are re are are responding. The issue for Democrats is many of the blue states are already gerrymandered to oblivion like I showed you with Illinois. So, they won't be able to gain as much as Republicans can in this war if Republicans go all the way.

[00:13:03]>> So, timing wise, you think they pick now for that specific reason or should they have waited longer closely?

[00:13:08]>> I think I think they chose now for the specific uh reason that there is very little time to reverse any decision.

[00:13:15]You've got six months, meaning it's a rush job to flip these states and and and go plus 12. But by the time this is resolved, the election will be right in front of us. I do think we have an interesting conundrum in what happens if someone files a suit right now, it is not resolved by the time the election happens and then after the election, a court issues a ruling that it was an unconstitutional district and must be redrawn. They'll have to have special elections. So, so hypothetically, there's a scenario where in February of next year, we're having another series of 20 or 30 congressional races due to the resolution coming after the election.

[00:13:55]>> I think that helps the conservatives.

[00:13:57]>> I I agree because how do you how do you how do you induct a new member of Congress when they're like, "A judge just issued a ruling that your seat is unconstitutional." Then what ends up happening is the existing Congress says, "We're not going to swear you in because you're not a member of Congress. your seat's unconstitutional. This is going to be a weird scenario. Now, there is still the very high probability literally nothing happens.

[00:14:21]>> Yeah.

[00:14:21]>> I mean, maybe I'm just jaded, but that's I'm just, you know, I'm not a nothing ever happens person. I'm a nothing ever changes person and and I understand that like for a lot of time when you're jaded about this type of stuff, I'm like, it just doesn't seem like we're going to see plus 12 except for the fact that Texas already did, California already did, and uh Virginia just voted on it.

[00:14:39]So to say I don't think it's going to happen when we are currently in the war.

[00:14:43]>> Texas was uh Republicans Jerry Manderdeed. But the the idea here is that most of the left has already done it.

[00:14:50]>> Well, take a look at this. This is a viral meme. Uh Massachusetts 36% Republican, no seats. Connecticut 42, zero seats. Maine 46. Actually, Maine has one uh one uh district. Uh new uh uh uh was that New Mexico none. New Hampshire none. These are these states are all one-third to one half Republican with no congressional seats. So California is able to squeeze a few out.

[00:15:14]Virginia, of course, is trying to put five congressional districts in Fairfax County, which would eliminate the state's going to eliminate four Republican seats. But Republicans can gain upwards of 30. Democrats can gain, I think, like 10. Yeah. So ultimately we end up with on the on in in the middle of the road Republicans being plus