Could the Iran war ground European air travel this summer? | DW News

Ajouté : 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]We don't have much jet fuel left and it's closer to being a problem than we hoped.

[00:00:05]>> In Europe, we have maybe six weeks or so jet fuel left.

[00:00:11]>> Airlines don't expect to make their money before July, but when we get there, they expect to make all of their money in a real hurry when the northern hemisphere gets warm and we crisscross the globe to relax. Now, at the start of the war on Iran almost 7 weeks ago, disruptions in the straight of Hormuz threatened ramifications that seemed way off in the distant future. But it turns out our problems might be closer than we thought. Airlines are still operating, but the warning signs are mounting. Fuel is becoming harder to source, more expensive, and more difficult to move where it's needed. The situation is becoming critical with the risk that flights could soon be cancelled. At least according to the head of the international energy agency, we are uh in Europe, we have maybe 6 weeks or so jet fuel left. If we are not able to open the straight of formos, if the refineries as a result of start to work, uh I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the uh the flights from city A to city B might be cancelled as a result of lack of jet fuel. So uh some parts of the world are hit worse than the others. the the front line is the Asian countries because Asia, Japan, Korea, India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, they were getting big chunk of their energy from this Middle East and from this hummus trait. So they will be at the forefront. Then it will come to uh Europe and the Americas. We will see the impact of it in two big ways.

[00:02:05]One is the higher petrol prices, higher gas prices, higher electricity prices.

[00:02:13]The second one is if it continues like this, if we cannot find a solution, namely opening up of the state of Hermus, we may well see some of the products, petroleum products may well be absent in the markets. Well, with all of that in mind, Richard Levy, aviation expert and former airline transportation pilot, joins me now. Richard, you're really well placed to enter the chat on this topic. When you hear warnings like that that Europe could run short of jet fuel, how seriously would airlines take all of that?

[00:02:50]Well, I think of course they'll take it very seriously and uh the markets that will be affected first of all will be uh the markets that maybe are between uh smaller cities and maybe not so profitable. the bigger cities, the London Heathros, the Frankfurts, the Munich example type of cities, um will still have a good supply of jet fuel uh initially. And if the uh straight does not open up in let's say 6 weeks by the end of May, beginning of June, then you're going to begin to see reduction in service. Prices are going to go up the fairs and uh reduction in service will happen. The operations uh officers in the major airlines that would be Luans or British Airways, American, Delta United will have daily inputs on how the fuel is coming. So on a dayto-day basis there will be cancellations.

[00:03:56]Initially fewer, later on more, >> right? So we get the idea of this is going to be a stepped process of uh the problems coming online if you like. Soon after these attacks on Iran kicked off.

[00:04:08]We did start to ask the questions of countries. Which country has the most in reserve? Which country has the least?

[00:04:15]What about major airports? You did touch on it there just a little bit. Uh like major hubs like Heathrow or Frankfurt.

[00:04:22]They are bigger by volume of traffic uh in and out. Are they necessarily better protected than the smaller airports, the smaller cities you mentioned?

[00:04:32]>> They're going to have uh big vehicles delivering fuel from the ports. So, they're going to face it, a big fueler, a truck is going to carry a lot of fuel of jet kerosene to Heathrow, to Frankfurt, to the bigger European hubs.

[00:04:51]And it's just more co more effective to do that than to go to a smaller city with fewer flights. And you can't waste the fuel or have the fuel sit around.

[00:05:03]>> You're naturally going to be better at interpreting signals from the the major airlines than us. We heard the word cancellation and it fell really heavily at the top of our chat coming from the International Energy Agency. the airlines are going to be much more reticent to to use that word. I guess when it comes to interpreting signals, what's the first internal signal that an airline sends that we might miss that tells you we may have a real fuel problem on our hands.

[00:05:34]when you're going to have the media Anthony at the major airports underneath the arrival and departure signs and when the camera focuses on uh the flights from A to B from London Heath to Munich for example uh Zurich Switzerland uh back to uh Dusseldorf Germany but and it's canled then uh and now flights cancel you know that you travel the world uh yourself, but u when the cancellations start to increase right now they have some labor issues in Germany and that's not what we're talking about with Luansza but when the cancellations begin to creep up and it's going to be a dayby-day basis then we're going to know something is going on there and also the reason why uh some of the major cities may be protected is that when a fight from Airline A is cancelled. Airline B can pick up the slack and carry the passengers that may still be there so we can take care of our passengers, our guests. That's our main objective in any airline.

[00:06:48]>> The last time we had a massive oil crisis was the 70s. It was a long time ago and the industry was uh far smaller than than now. Is there much we can learn from how airlines adapted then?

[00:07:03]Yes, as as a matter of fact during this early 70s, that is of course a long time ago, uh there was a lack of fuel coming from uh kerosene coming from the Middle East um due to political reasons. And so what the airlines learned of which they are still practicing today and practiced before I retired is uh fuel management.

[00:07:30]If you pick the best route, you pick the highest altitude that makes sense. That is, you pick the aircraft that's most economical to operate on and that is always going to become better and better. So, this is what we learned from that uh energy crisis in early 70s. had it again in one of the Gulf Wars, had it again uh during COVID, had the 911 event, but there weren't many people flying, so there wasn't really a drastic need for the fuel for the first four or five days after the 9/11 event, >> right? And so when um we talk about not as many people flying back then compared to today, one thing that wasn't around or as prevalent I guess was the budget carriers uh in the '7s compared to today. Is that the first place that the natur your eye is naturally drawn looking for these problems to bear out the these budget airlines? Are they naturally going to have these problems sooner than the the the more established like Lufanser and Quantis and these type of airlines?

[00:08:34]>> Anthony, good question. No, I don't believe so. They do have operate smaller either Boeings or Airbus aircraft, the budget airlines, but they have volume.

[00:08:45]They have numerous aircraft. So, they're going to need the fuel for their numerous narrowbody aircraft versus the Quantis or the Luansas or British Airways A380s or 747s or trip 7 type aircraft. So uh they have as much right for the fuel and also some of the budget airlines in England for example have purchased contracts all the way out through the summer. Uh the price will fluctuate a little bit but uh some have have bought what we call futures the so the price of the fuel is somewhat locked in already. So they they'll have a supply.

[00:09:27]>> How quickly can airlines adapt their schedules? I I assume at this point, Richard, they're starting to do scenarios on X, Y, and Z if it if the fuel doesn't come online more quickly that they're already planning for major changes to their schedules at this point.

[00:09:46]>> Absolutely are. It's a uh it's a day-by-day basis. It's not what are we going to do Monday in a week. What are we going to do tomorrow? And what is the fuel supply? How much are we going to have in the US at Dallas Fort Worth or John F. Kennedy or Chicago hair? Normal deliveries of fuel of kerosene, there'll be no schedule changes. We see a lack of fuel coming in to a big airport like Chicago here or London Heathrow. The message we sent out immediately to the major carriers, whether it's British Airways at Heathro or Quantis that's getting ready to fly back to Sydney, the Quantis operations in Sydney will have that fuel message. They'll know that uh they will may have have to have a delay on that departure out of Heathro to return to Sydney. So, they will have up-to-date information on the fuel situation. Of course, if this thing gets fixed, uh, the strauts and and both sides and all parties involved shake hands and come to grips, this thing will be something of the past.

[00:10:57]>> And before we go, I guess we have to talk about the worst case scenario for European aviation as that's where we sit here in Berlin tonight. What is the worst case scenario for aviation here if the fuel supply doesn't stabilize and stabilize soon?

[00:11:13]Good question, Anthony. If if the worst happens, and we're looking at uh six weeks, eight weeks, uh beginning of the summer travel season when people are traveling um and have their plans made uh there the public will have to deal with cancellations. There will be fewer flights, the prices will go up. the European area is has a a wealthy generally type customer and they're going to pay for the higher fairs. When you talk about perhaps the African countries or the Latin American countries, uh that's where you may not have the passengers ready to pay the fees, the fairs for uh higher travel.

[00:11:59]But in Europe, uh, you'll just see a reduction in travel and but people will eventually get to where they're going. I feel very certain of that.

[00:12:08]>> Aviation expert and former Elon transportation pilot Richard Levy. It's been uh absolutely wonderful to speak to you. Great to be able to pick your brain at this moment. Thanks so much for the chat.

[00:12:19]>> Thank you, Anthony. Blessings to you all in Berlin.

[00:12:23]>> So with that, what do you think?

[00:12:25]Thinking about your next trip abroad?

[00:12:27]Does the lack of jet fuel have you worried? Let us know in the comments. If you like this video, please hit that like button and if you haven't already, don't forget to subscribe to the channel as well. Bye for now.