Bitcoin: This Is Where We Bottom

[00:00:00]Ben, welcome back to the channel.  Thank you so much for coming on. Yeah, thanks for having me. It's a pleasure to be  here. We had a show together on January 13th, and we've been basically discussing how this thing  we predicted, that Bitcoin top, this 2026 outlook, and I have to say it became pretty accurate. We  were saying that it's going to be kind of like a waterfall as Bitcoin goes down in a downtrend  on a higher time frame. And then just recently, as we discussed, there obviously was going to be  a bear market rally. You've been very accurately saying that we're going back to the 200-day moving  average, and if you look simply at the chart, which is what I do, it was a clear sign that  mid-May is basically the new top. Bitcoin is down 25% since then. The question that I think  everybody's really wondering, especially the people who watched that show and followed along,  is when is the bottom? When is this bleeding ending? Are we going much lower? You're sometimes  surfacing 38,000. Is that where we're heading to, or are we reversing very soon? What do you think? Well, I mean, normally the way it plays out is Bitcoin finds a low in the summer, and then we get  a bounce kind of in the later part of the summer, and then we get the final drop into the fourth  quarter of the year, which then marks the bottom.

[00:01:14]So that's my best guess, would be the fourth  quarter of the year. And again, if you think about how every cycle has played out so far for Bitcoin,  every top has occurred near the end of the post-halving year. Bring up my chart and you can  see that every prior top has essentially occurred near the end of the post-halving year. So you  have Q4 of 2013, Q4 2017, Q4 2021, and Q4 2025.

[00:01:41]But what's interesting is that the bear markets  have all historically lasted about one year, plus or minus a month or two. So in 2017, it  was December 2017 to December 2018 was the bear market. And then in 2021, it was November 2021  to November 2022. So I'd just been speculating dubiously, of course, that what if it's just  October 2025 to October 2026. So my guess is that it's probably going to be in the fourth  quarter of the year, likely around October.

[00:02:15]That's how I think this is going to play out. But I will say one thing that would make me change my mind is if a lot of the onchain indicators  were to completely reset. Okay, so there's a lot of onchain indicators, like the MVRV Z-score.  You can see that normally resets below zero. We're very close to that. And surprisingly close, we  are, right. And actually, one of the things which is why I was pretty adamant that the low was  not in for February was because historically, the Bitcoin percentage of supply in profit and  loss, the low is not in until after they cross, like sometime after they cross. And they hadn't  crossed in February. They've crossed now. So now we have to be a little bit more aware of,  hey, the market cycle bottom could occur at any moment. But it's these onchain charts  that I think help people kind of stay on the right side of the market. And when you actually  look at a lot of the onchain metrics, so this is combining the Puell Multiple, the MVRV score, the  MVRV Z-score, transaction fees, terminal price, the market cap to thermocap ratio, and the miner  cap to thermocap ratio. And if you normalize Bitcoin's performance over those onchain metrics  between zero and one, historically the market cycle lows tend to occur down here, right? And so  if that were to happen, if that were to happen in say June, then I wouldn't wait until October. And what is it exactly that you're looking for to happen in June? Because we're almost at the  end of June. So what is it that you're actually looking for? If there is a big drop, where if we  were to go, let's say, to 40K or something crazy, which I know it feels like it's impossible,  right? But if something like that were to happen, then I wouldn't wait until October, right? I would  just turn bullish, because it wouldn't matter. And let me show you an example, right? Because I think  people deserve to have examples of why things play out sometimes differently. Look at the S&P 500.  People say that we only have three data points for the four-year cycle, but the S&P 500 has also gone  through four-year cycles many, many times where the lows occur approximately every four years, as  you can see, right? It's approximately, in detail as well in the previous show. We're going to  put it up. It's worth watching as well. Exactly.

[00:04:33]And what you'll notice is that a lot of times  the low occurs in October. So you can see October of 1966, October of 1974, even October of 2022,  right? I mean, 2022, the stock market bottomed in October. But if you look at 1970, the stock market  actually bottomed in like late May, early June, and it was after a massive capitulation down  where, as measured from the high, the stock market dropped 37%. That's a big drop for the stock  market. I mean, for Bitcoin, it's another Tuesday, but for the stock market, that's a big drop. And  so I think the most likely time for a low would be October. But if at any point between now and  then we were to see a big crash, then I wouldn't wait. And some people might say, well, 50% down  is already a big crash. But if you compare, and I don't know if we did this in January or not, maybe  you remember, did we do the comparison at all between 2019 and 2025 and 2026? I think we didn't.  Okay. Because there's some rationale. Oh yeah, you showed this chart, now I remember. But go  through it, because I think it's very important.

[00:05:47]Right. Well, so the rationale for comparing  2025 to 2019 is that Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria, and there was no rotation  into altcoins both in 2019 and in 2025. Also, both rallies were characterized by Bitcoin  dominance going up, right? They were characterized by Bitcoin dominance going up. Also, both  rallies corresponded to a year where the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a 75 basis  point in both environments. And to top it off, it also corresponded to Bitcoin in both cases  topping two months before the Federal Reserve ended quantitative easing, or sorry, quantitative  tightening. So you can see that in 2019, Bitcoin topped in June. QT ended in August. And then in  2025, Bitcoin topped in October and QT ended in December. Okay. So you can see that in both cases,  if you look at this green line where it sort of bottoms out and starts to head back up.  So there's plenty of rationale for that.

[00:06:54]Now, if you overlay, right, if you overlay  the 2019 bear market, we know it ended with a pandemic, right? We know that's what it ended  with. And if you just happen to overlay the 2025 bear market, you can see that it's tracked it  pretty closely. We even had this rally, and now we're kind of approaching where, in the 2019-2020  style move, we had this massive capitulation. Now, it's not my base case, because I'm not calling for  a pandemic, right? I'm not calling for anything like that. But we know, I mean, if you truly  believe that everything is on the chart and not in the narratives, then I don't need to know what's  going on outside of the chart to make a decision.

[00:07:39]If I'm looking at the chart at any point over the  next say six months, and Bitcoin is trading say 60 to 70% down from its yearly open, then I'm a  bull, right? And the other thing that would make me be a bull is if we had time-based capitulation,  right? So if we have our full-year bear market, October to October, it doesn't matter how low  it goes, right? It could bottom at 60, we could bottom at 30, 40 or 50, whatever the price is, by  the end of the year, I would probably flip bullish regardless. And that's more so a time-based  capitulation. But in the short term, in the short term, we likely, there usually is a counter-trend  rally by Bitcoin. There's multiple ones.

[00:08:25]And I know you've dealt with this too as well,  because you were on the right side of the market late last year, and there's been no shortage  of people dunking on the bears this year. I didn't want to bring it up. I didn't want  to bring it up, because I know everybody, but it's ridiculous. It's ridiculous, the amount  of hate of people getting that. But you've been handling it extremely well. I need to learn to  handle it the way that you do. Well, I think, and I say this a lot, like, bear markets make  fools of both bulls and bears, right? The hard thing about being a bear in a bear market is, you  know there's going to be some face-ripping rallies in the bear market, and they're going to last for  like several months. And the best you can do is, whenever you have these massive capitulations,  try to cool off with the bearish rhetoric, because, okay, we're going to have a few months  of a rally. But I mean, the same thing happens in every bear market. Like every February of  every midterm year marks a low, or around there, and then you rally for a few months. It's just so interesting to me. It's just so interesting to me, because last time  as well we spoke about all the stuff that you explained in the last show, and now as well it is  basically showing on the chart. I actually was, when you said October, there was a clear pattern,  we discussed there was a lower low on the chart after creating a new high, and then it's just  a retrace, and from there we're going low. And everybody was like, this is just a retrace, all  the comments, a lot of comments as well, this is just a retrace, you guys are way too bearish, this  is the demand and all that. And the same pattern that we've seen, and when you said, I don't  have to know anything else, if I see the chart, the same pattern that we had back in October  played out here in May. And the moment we had this down here on the 28th, hey, this is when I  posted this sell. And basically this is where you said the rejection, when the rejection happened,  basically from this level, from around the 80, 81,000, that is the exact thing when the  rally basically died. A lot of people started buying the dip and it went down 22%. So, just as a summary of what you're saying, does that mean that you believe we should have a  final bottom by October, but that bottom can be 55 and can be 30, can be 42, it's rather the  time base, and then we'll see where it goes?

[00:10:39]And one more thing, what is your, if there is  no drop, because this is what I'm looking at, if you look at the previous cycles, every single  time it was marked with a higher high, whether on the daily, it's the exact reverse that I've been  talking about on the top, right? So if you look at this here, massive long, long, long time of just  choppiness, and then a higher high, and then from there a move down, here as well choppiness, then  a down move. So is there a catalyst, so to say, that you're looking for, if there is no drop? Not really. I think it's just time. I think a lot of people like myself are going to believe that  the four-year cycle is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[00:11:21]And I think a narrative will be blamed. I mean,  I think people might be talking about the Clarity Act. They may be talking about AI, or perhaps the  IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI. I don't know what the narrative will be, but I think there's a good  chance we're going to see semis get a correction in the second half of this year, and that's likely  going to lead to a drop in the stock market.

[00:11:47]So if you look at the stock market in late 2014,  late 2018, and late 2022, in all three of those midterm years, the stock market had a 10 to 20%  drop. And it also had a drop at the beginning of the midterm years as well. So usually what  happens is the stock market drops at the beginning of the midterm year. It causes Bitcoin  to go down, and it has its first major leg down.

[00:12:08]We had that going into February. And then at the  end of the midterm year, the stock market gets another 10 to 20% drop. And it's during that  drop that Bitcoin finds its market cycle low.

[00:12:17]So I couldn't tell you what it's going to be.  I mean, one thing I thought about somewhat is, like, I wonder, how at a lot of speeches and  stuff recently, a lot of retail, or maybe I shouldn't say retail, but a lot of people just  on Main Street have been booing AI, right? Like, AI has not really been a popular narrative. Well,  recently we saw the administration make Anthropic pull back their recent release, citing national  security. Yeah. National security concerns. So I wonder, like, part of me wonders if the way  the stock market gets a secondary correction in the back half of the year, like it did in  the last three midterm years, is because the administration realizes that in order to do better  in the midterms, perhaps they need to be seen as a little bit anti-AI going into the midterms.  Interesting. And that could certainly lead to a correction in semis. And if the stock market is  going down, I would expect Bitcoin to go down too.

[00:13:12]But by that point, the four-year cycle for Bitcoin  will likely almost be complete. And then I have a feeling that sometime, and crypto is the only  underperforming asset class, I mean, it just makes sense to start deploying back into crypto. Crypto  has been bleeding to everything this year, right?

[00:13:28]Like, I mean, Bitcoin, and this is what, you know,  I'm sure you told people as well, is a lot of people will get FOMO on every single counter-trend  rally by Bitcoin, right? Like they got FOMO when it rallied back up to 98K in January, and then  when it rallied up to 82K in May. But the reality is, if you were buying other things this year  that were actually in a bull market, then you're not really that concerned about missing a couple  of counter-trend rallies in an asset that's in a bear market. Like, it just doesn't matter.  So it's all about reminding ourselves that there's always a bull market somewhere, and the  bull market will likely come back for Bitcoin, but it's unlikely to really come back until later  this year. Ben, appreciate you a lot. When and if that happens, we'll get you back on the channel.  But we have another video coming up as well. I really want to get your thoughts on the Fed, and  where this is, and what is really happening. So that's going to be the next one. But for now,  Ben, truly appreciate you. And anyone watching, subscribe to the channel and come back for  the next one. Ben, thank you. Thanks, Army.