Raoul Pal 2026 Prediction: Bitcoin "Banana Zone" Is Coming... BIGGER

Ajouté : 2026-06-06

[00:00:00]We're going through the most extraordinary time in human history.

[00:00:04]>> [snorts] >> Nothing else matters.

[00:00:07]This whole funneling of all capital into intelligence is the biggest race that's ever happened. Bitcoin and crypto is cheap as it has been in its long-term uptrend versus Nasdaq.

[00:00:19]Okay, that's it to me sounds like you should be allocating more to crypto than you are to the Nasdaq. So, you've got cheap entry point with accelerating use case with large amounts of money coming to it, you know, trillions of dollars. And stable coins are doing like run rate of like 100 trillion a year.

[00:00:35]It's crazy.

[00:00:37]And that all is underlying [music] use case for for chains. And it's only going to increase. If you think of Bitcoin, Bitcoin has one job and it has one target, which is global savings.

[00:00:49]And so, Bitcoin is a power law distribution. It's over time, you can only get to 100% global savings. So, I just think there's a basket of four or five you can own layer ones and you can go to the beach and in 10 years time you can fly back from the beach in a private jet.

[00:01:06]>> Investor Raoul Pal argues that crypto is currently sitting at a historically cheap entry point relative to the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

[00:01:14]>> [music] >> With global liquidity rapidly accelerating from the US to China, Bitcoin's recent price drops are simply nasty corrections in a massive bull market, not a bear cycle. By holding a basket of dominant layer one networks, investors are positioned to directly participate in the multi-trillion dollar digital infrastructure layer of the future. Before we go on, please take a moment to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on post notifications for more content like this. Every action helps with the YouTube algorithm and greatly supports the channel's growth. Thanks for your support and enjoy the video.

[00:01:48]>> Crypto, there's only a certain amount of liquidity in the system.

[00:01:52]>> Mhm.

[00:01:53]>> The US withdrew liquidity for the government shutdown.

[00:01:57]That lags crypto by 3 months. It hit crypto, that was 1010 was in the middle of all of that.

[00:02:02]Liquidity's picking up again, crypto's picking up again, but there's a gap because Nasdaq, because of this massive need for capital and investment in the space, it just sucked in capital. The Chinese for a period of time bought a lot of gold in that gold rally. So, what happened was the riskiest of assets, the furthest duration assets, which is SAS companies [music] and crypto produced identical charts and they just got left behind for a bit.

[00:02:27]But, what's happened is literally everything's changed because in that period from that period of October um last year we birthed economic agents.

[00:02:43]And they're scaling everywhere.

[00:02:45]Everybody's building them.

[00:02:47]So, what you've got is it it dawned on me suddenly is like everyone's like, yeah, agents are going to use, you know, wallets and blah blah blah. But, then when you play it through from what I've been talking about, the speed of which this is happening, >> [music] >> this means crypto has an infinite TAM.

[00:03:02]The total addressable market is all [music] of the agents.

[00:03:07]And they will be economic actors in their own right, building their own businesses, stuff like that. So, [music] it's changed everything. It's still Metcalfe's law, it still follows the log trend and that would take us still there. You might get there a bit earlier.

[00:03:19]>> [music] >> But, what it kind of means is it just keeps going cuz A, the debasement of currency won't stop until debt to GDP collapses. We're not there yet. GDP growth is not fast enough. We need to get through the economic singularity.

[00:03:30]Then, we see, you know, the global coordination rails of of uh blockchain being used for more and more things. Don't forget, the entire financial system is going onto these rails. Mhm. And you get to front run it. They've announced what they're going to do.

[00:03:48]And I've always said this, we've been able to front run the institutions all the way through.

[00:03:51]And people get exasperated with crypto because it went down for a year. And you're like, look at the [ __ ] picture. You've got an infinite TAM, the entire financial system going on these rails, the Clarity Act being passed, the government will not stop debasing the currency.

[00:04:06]>> Mhm.

[00:04:08]>> So, it just keeps going.

[00:04:13]>> So, the worst is over for crypto?

[00:04:14]>> Yeah.

[00:04:15]>> Why?

[00:04:16]>> [music] >> Because the liquidity's flowing.

[00:04:17]>> Mhm.

[00:04:17]>> Liquidity's flowing in the US, liquidity's flowing in in >> [music] >> in uh China, it's flowing um across the world. So, liquidity's going up, global liquidity keeps going, it's accelerating, US liquidity's accelerating.

[00:04:30]>> [music] >> So, therefore, nothing to worry about yet.

[00:04:32]>> So, for you Bitcoin going from 126 down to 60k is is not a bear market.

[00:04:39]>> No.

[00:04:40]>> It's a nasty correction.

[00:04:41]>> It's a it's a nasty correction in a bull market. Now, I've been in crypto since 2013, I've seen many corrections, non-bear markets, of 50% in Bitcoin.

[00:04:51]But, people forget this every time.

[00:04:53]And when that happens to Bitcoin, others go down more. We talked about this in the past. There's a risk curve. It's natural, happens all the time. I think it was Solana last cycle did down [music] 80 in uh in 2021 before it before it had that massive run.

[00:05:09]And that was in a bull market year with liquidity flowing. Happens all the time.

[00:05:13]Happens to Ethereum, happens to So, it happens all the time. Don't forget the Bitcoin pullback in 2021, as you said, was it was [music] what, something like January to July?

[00:05:25]And it was back at all-time highs in November. So, it was actually 6 months of falling.

[00:05:30]So, when did Bitcoin make its all-time high? December last year?

[00:05:34]I think.

[00:05:35]>> Mhm.

[00:05:35]>> So, it's only you know, only went down equivalent number of months. Didn't go down that long. Um but let's see. The longer it takes to go up, the more extended it becomes, I think. I think product market fit wins, hyperliquid.

[00:05:48]>> Mhm.

[00:05:48]>> You know, you've [music] seen it.

[00:05:49]Product-market fit wins. So, there are plenty of opportunities. Just because your [ __ ] token doesn't go up.

[00:05:55]>> [laughter] >> You know, it the market owes you nothing.

[00:06:00]You would just have to be better at doing your job. We haven't had the full accelerator the banana zone phase. We've not had that because liquidity was still subdued in 2024.

[00:06:13]So, we had good year 2020 two from the low, so end of the year. 2023 was a great year, and then 24 petered out, and that was it. Um Bitcoin continued for a bit, but really we just haven't had the acceleration period. So, people have the cycle has extended, and everyone's given up on year four of potentially five-year cycle, maybe longer now. I don't know. I don't know how broken the cycle is by what's going on. It's like, you know, don't forget the K-shaped economy. So, tech economy's booming. The uh the real economy's [music] not. So, what are they trying to do? They're trying to cut rates to help regular people.

[00:06:53]The ISM that we've talked about in the past is now ripping positive as crypto rises, same thing. And they're going to have the largest infrastructure investment in the history of the world is about to happen in data centers [music] and all of that build out. And that's going to employ a lot of people in construction, services, everything. [music] And we're going to have a boom. And that money gets saved, spent, or invested.

[00:07:20]And people will come to the casino as they always do uh in the crypto market. So, again, I don't have an issue. I also think that people misunderstand the rise of stablecoins, RWAs, the finance system bringing stuff on chain. They're like, "How do we participate in this?"

[00:07:39]Just own the [ __ ] token.

[00:07:42]This This like >> The underlying layer one >> I mean, the layer one trade is so simple. It's so obvious. It's the big trade. It is the I talked about this, the universal basic equity layer for all of us.

[00:07:54]If we are going to see the largest um parts of the economy given over to AI and agents, and they're going to use crypto rails, we just get to own the layer ones, and we participate in their success.

[00:08:11]Right, we didn't get that with the internet.

[00:08:13]And nobody There's no excuse for people not to do this.

[00:08:16]>> What's happening with the stock market that just goes up forever?

[00:08:20]>> There's two things. Obviously, liquidity, right? That's the one fundamental we're seeing, liquidity expansion. The other thing is we're going through the most extraordinary time in human history.

[00:08:33]Nothing else matters.

[00:08:35]This whole funneling of all capital into intelligence is the biggest race that's ever happened.

[00:08:42]>> Mhm.

[00:08:42]>> It's the race of nations. It's the race of corporations. It's the race of everybody.

[00:08:47]And so, of course, it's going to suck every single piece of capital because you can't slow it down.

[00:08:54]There is no world in which you can allow one superpower to have AGI.

[00:08:58]>> Mhm.

[00:08:59]>> So, there has to be two.

[00:09:00]There's only two nations in the world who can afford to do it. That's the US and China.

[00:09:05]No nation can now game theory suggest that no nation can now stop because the other advantage.

[00:09:14]So, there is nothing that can stop this.

[00:09:16]Now, it doesn't mean we can't have a bear market at some point, whatever, but even then, you play through things like people were fearing like that there's people borrowing money and this is all going to blow up. Okay, let's say let's say OpenAI blows up. They run out of money. That's the doom mongous thing.

[00:09:32]What happens the next second that's announced?

[00:09:36]Is the US going to say, "Oh, we're going to lose one of the largest AI firms?"

[00:09:39]They're going to say, "Right, what we're going to do is we're going to auction off the assets immediately to Microsoft, Google, and everybody else, who will buy them in seconds, cuz if they sell it to one company, that one company doubles their computer overnight, and then wins the entire game, which you can't allow either. You can't allow one company to have the advantage."

[00:09:59]So, the game is so big that nobody will stop. All of the Iran game, all of the what Venezuela game, it's all the same game. It's converting which I call the universal code, converting units of energy into units of intelligence.

[00:10:14]Every single process is this.

[00:10:16]>> Within Pal's framework, Bitcoin occupies a unique position. He argues that Bitcoin serves one primary purpose, becoming the global savings asset.

[00:10:26]Unlike smart contract platforms, Bitcoin's value proposition is relatively simple. It acts as a digital store of value competing for a share of global savings.

[00:10:36]Because global savings represent a massive market, Bitcoin follows what Pal describes as a power law distribution.

[00:10:42]Over time, Bitcoin's addressable market is potentially every individual, institution, corporation, and government seeking to preserve purchasing power.

[00:10:51][music] >> What are your thoughts on hyper liquid and what these guys are doing?

[00:10:55]>> If I don't use it, >> Mhm.

[00:10:57]>> I wouldn't buy it. I'm just not a trader, so we you know, we talked about that. So, it's just not for me. I don't use perps, I don't use leverage, I don't use any of this stuff.

[00:11:03]So, I get it, but it is a niche within a broader ecosystem, and it's a great one. You can have great niche products.

[00:11:11]>> Mhm.

[00:11:12]>> Um but it has no real moat around it.

[00:11:16]I mean, Robinhood are going to come after that as fast as they can, and eventually Coinbase, too. Now, can Hyper out execute them? Possibly, probably, I don't know. Don't really have a view on it, um but it's not my trade. Now, 24-hour markets, great, but I mean, literally everybody's talking about that.

[00:11:32]>> Mhm.

[00:11:33]>> So, this is the universal basic equity idea, right? We for the first time we've got a globalized infrastructure, digital infrastructure, unlike the internet that we can participate in. That the AI and others will use, >> [music] >> and we get to reap the benefits of them.

[00:11:50]Right, this is this is the trade-off we're giving to them taking part of our knowledge work away is they're going to give us the ability to make money from their economy that they create.

[00:12:01]Over time, the layer ones, people don't understand this, is the layer ones, if you think of all big networks that are important for infrastructure, whether it's operating systems, uh whether it's cloud, all of that, there's basically three to four main players.

[00:12:21]Then there's a a bunch of specialists, and then there's a tail of stuff. But it really accumulates to three or four to five people.

[00:12:29]This will be the same.

[00:12:31]So, it's going to be around three, four, five chains as layer ones. Then there'll be specialists like Hypers as a specialist, you know, can that continue to one vertical niche thing. Okay, great.

[00:12:41]Um there'll be somebody who does something slightly different, privacy, but that's really on the Bitcoin side of the ledger, which is a non-smart contract.

[00:12:47]>> Mhm.

[00:12:48]>> Um So, the infrastructure layer becomes much more important than people understand. We've talked about in the past, yeah. Every ticket becomes an NFT, you know, every All of these things, the whole finance system comes on board.

[00:13:01]That's all accruing value to layer ones.

[00:13:04]How I try and explain the value of a layer one is Ethereum.

[00:13:10]Okay, so if you were to pull the plug on Ethereum today, how much economic value do you destroy?

[00:13:17]I mean, huge. Every layer two, all of DeFi, all the real world assets, all of NFTs, everything that's been built on ETH goes to zero.

[00:13:31]ETH is probably undervalued for that already, let alone the growth rate of these things. And let alone thinking, well, the finance system's going to come a lot on ETH and layer twos and stuff like that.

[00:13:40]So, that's how you got to think about what is the value of that infrastructure.

[00:13:45]Uh, and so, if you think of Bitcoin, Bitcoin has one job and it has one target, which is global savings.

[00:13:54]And so, Bitcoin is a power law distribution cuz over time, you can only get to 100% of global savings.

[00:14:01]Infrastructure layer can scale infinitely, which is why again, Google and all of those companies have just been like that on a log regression channel.

[00:14:11]>> So, that means for you that the layer one, whichever you choose, ETH, SOL, SUI, should be a majority of your portfolio.

[00:14:22]>> I still think, you know, I've done a lot of work on this into the SUI live about this is for me, and I know I'm biased cuz I'm on the board, but but this is from deep analysis is it is clearly ETH has the largest amount of economic and intelligence density of any of these.

[00:14:41]Solana has is proven.

[00:14:43]And then we're talking about, remember, three or four.

[00:14:45]>> Mhm.

[00:14:46]>> Who else?

[00:14:47]The only one through the analysis that I got to was SUI because it has more TVL per user than Solana does.

[00:14:57]And it's a lot younger. No, and when the market fell 80%, it didn't lose any economic density. In fact, maintained it. There was only three tokens that maintained economic density: ETH, Solana, SUI.

[00:15:10]And when you look at SUI on a bunch of other bases, you've got the output of intelligence cuz it's programmability, the speed, and all of this stuff. So, I just think there's a basket of four or five you can own layer ones and you can go to the beach and in 10 years time you can fly back from the beach in a private jet.

[00:15:30]>> Layer ones that can output the largest amount of intelligence per unit of energy will outperform over time.

[00:15:37]>> So this is this I've not really fully released the entire thing on the universal code. I've written about it.

[00:15:43]People don't really understand it yet.

[00:15:45]But the >> [clears throat] >> there's a set of operating principles that are observable and provable and understandable of how the universe works.

[00:15:55]The key one is the entire universe from atomic structure to solar system structure complete >> [music] >> and continues to convert units of energy which is the fixed all the physics says is you can't destroy or create energy and out of it comes intelligence.

[00:16:12]We're part of that process um and AI is part of that process.

[00:16:18]And blockchains are the same process.

[00:16:21]Everything is. They all >> [music] >> are networks as well. Every single one of them are creative by networks.

[00:16:27]And so what you've got is an intelligent network of computing storage which is blockchain.

[00:16:32]And money as we talked about, why does Nvidia get more money than anybody else?

[00:16:38]Because they're creating more intelligence output than any other company on Earth right now.

[00:16:41]Why is Anthropic doing it? Because they're producing they're producing more intelligence output. It happens literally everywhere. Why is the Nasdaq outperforming? Once I discovered this universal code, I see it everywhere in everything. It's the organizing principle of the universe and what you find is all geopolitics is based on it.

[00:16:59]All of what human activity is based on it. Everything is based on it. So that's what this is about is anything with more intelligence does well.

[00:17:08]>> [music] >> So intelligence comes in many forms.

[00:17:10]Firstly, intelligence of human capital.

[00:17:12]How many builders, programmers, developers.

[00:17:15]Then what is the programmability and efficiency of that programmability? How fast is that blockchain convert energy into programmable outcomes. So, ETH in this case is actually not great.

[00:17:30]But, ETH wins massively for the number of developers and economic density, the Lindy effects, the security, all of that, right? So, it's it's very solid.

[00:17:40]As I've said, it's like the Microsoft, you know, you don't get fired for ETH.

[00:17:45]You got Solana, which is much more efficient, much faster, much cheaper, >> [music] >> um easier to deal with than ETH.

[00:17:53]Uh less developers, but good good density.

[00:17:57]Um you've got Sui, which is much earlier, but as we said, it's uh it's things like programmable um block times, block transactions of thousands transactions within one block. It's like a different order of magnitude than anything else.

[00:18:12]>> [music] >> It's speed to finality is a different order of magnitude.

[00:18:16]It's programmability is a different order of magnitude. So, what you've got [music] is provable intelligence. Now, doesn't mean anything unless you can prove that hey, how many applications does it have [music] built on it?

[00:18:29]How many applications per user? You know, that kind of stuff. You start to see these metrics and you can see density forming. It's still not there.

[00:18:36]It's still early.

[00:18:37]>> [music] >> You know, you want to see you want to see a large portion of stable coins versus TVL, which is [music] like that is stored energy in the system ready to be deployed into the system. Right now, Sui is like um Sui's TVL is equivalent to the stable coin size. You want to see twice that or more.

[00:18:57]When you get to ETH, you see huge amounts. So, there's a there's a bunch of indicators, but what you're looking for is what can you do with the chain, how little cost. So, when people look at blockchains, they look at discounted cash flow analysis and to value them.

[00:19:12]How many How much fees does it generate?

[00:19:14]Doesn't generate fees. It's so expensive.

[00:19:17]It's [ __ ] nonsense because because the very purpose of a network like this is to be the cheapest, fastest.

[00:19:25]>> Yeah, absolutely.

[00:19:25]>> So, if you use discounted cash flows, you miss the actual signal, which is cheapest, fastest, most programmable, will outperform over time.

[00:19:36]>> The bigger user The biggest user of DeFi and crypto payments will be AI AI agents, and their scale Their scale is infinite.

[00:19:42]>> Yeah. But, I'm just setting up some agents now.

[00:19:46]And a lot of the time you'll start to hit walls for API calls and all of this stuff, and there'll be a [music] payment.

[00:19:53]And it'd be 10 cents, whatever the number is.

[00:19:55]Right? You've got tons of these micro payments to make, and then large economic transactions cuz they can do other stuff. Fine. We kind of all understand that bit. The DeFi bit's really interesting.

[00:20:06]DeFi's actually much better suited for [music] machines than us.

[00:20:09]You don't even need a front end. I was speaking to one of the guys at an event last night. I'm like, why even bother with even a website or a front end or anything?

[00:20:17]Just attach you know, allow the agents to come, do their job, leave in the fastest possible, least friction, because that's what wins the this game.

[00:20:25]>> Yeah.

[00:20:26]>> And so, what will agents do? Well, we're talking about a multi-chain world. They're going [clears throat] to end up with even stablecoins on three different currencies or four different currencies.

[00:20:36]And they're going to want to rebalance.

[00:20:38]If they want to put it into Let's say they've got different transactions, they've got different currencies. They will have treasuries. Of course they will.

[00:20:45]And how will they swap? DeFi. And they'll do it instantaneously without any human involved, and we won't even see it. We won't even see the transaction. And so, they're going to be the largest users, so.

[00:20:56]>> Mhm.

[00:20:58]How can someone bet on that?

[00:21:00]>> Buy the layer one.

[00:21:01]>> [laughter] >> It's not that complicated. Now, I know layer ones may not be be raciest bet.

[00:21:05]You won't may may might not make the most money.

[00:21:09]And fine, you can go to the casino if you think you're a good VC [music] investor and find which are the protocols that are undervalued versus, you know, are they getting adoption effects? All of that that still applies.

[00:21:19]You can still do that work. Um it's just hard. I can't do that.

[00:21:23]>> Raoul Pal's thesis is ultimately a long-term bet on the convergence of intelligence, liquidity, and digital infrastructure. He sees artificial intelligence and blockchain not as separate revolutions, but as complementary systems that reinforce one another. AI creates new forms of economic activity. Blockchain provides the rails that allow that activity to coordinate, settle, and scale globally.

[00:21:49]For investors willing to focus beyond short-term market fluctuations, Pal believes the opportunity is unprecedented. [music] The world is entering an era where intelligence becomes the primary driver of value creation. And the networks that facilitate that intelligence may become some of the most important assets ever created.