Bitcoin Shifting Gears, Trend Reversal Loading...

[00:00:00]Hey everyone, welcome back to Crypto Cash. Thanks again for joining me here.

[00:00:03]Hope you're having a phenomenal day.

[00:00:04]We're having a really good day ourselves here. We started off the day with a nice little scalp short uh from roughly 63 to 62.5K.

[00:00:11]Uh that was a nice little catch there.

[00:00:13]Obviously, if you're part of my community, make sure you uh pay attention and enable alerts on our notifications here for our premium signals. Uh we snagged some nice profit yesterday, too. 22% for that um for that scalp as well. So, we're basically longing and short scalping majority of the peaks and and valleys here. But speaking of peaks and valleys, we're going to talk about the macro structure and the uh the bullish convergence there in case you missed that yesterday. And and more specifically, how this level is starting to bottom out pretty well with that pretty significant overextension and more specifically how to trade an invalidated head and shoulders pattern.

[00:00:44]Right? There's usually a specific way that you want to trade that now that the right shoulder is essentially been broken. Okay? So, we'll double check that and a lot of other things here.

[00:00:52]Make sure you stick around. We got a good one today. Let's take a look.

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[00:01:07]Before we jump into the back and data, friendly reminder, please hit the like button, comment below if you get a chance, and feel free to join us over on Twitter, Telegram, and Discord. And obviously, you want to become a better trader, cryptocash.te is a site linked down below that does give you access to my trading signals community, and of course, my library as well for my university videos. There's kind of some good foundational stuff you need to learn and watch and basically just, you know, reevaluate or revisit that every once a year just to get that best practice back on track, right? Try to instill that in my videos, but some folks don't listen. They always hear what they want to hear. Now, speaking of hearing what you want to hear, uh, this may be, you know, something you may not love to hear, but I'm not attached to a bullish or a bearish mindset right now.

[00:01:44]I really rarely am, honestly. But the good news is lower time frames is shifting momentum. We're starting to see that that structure build. But as per usual, we're also ready and anticipating the price action to pull back because there's lower time frame uh divergences.

[00:01:58]But the transitionary time frames are telling us there's further upside.

[00:02:01]Speaking of further upside, if you look at the liquidation above the price, there's a lot of liquidation, specifically 75x or higher at 70 uh 65K.

[00:02:09]And then we kind of just have an a rough estimate of 65 to 653 as that next chunk of liquidation to the upside. Obviously, there's some here at about 63 and a half as a close approximate. We'll look at the liquidation charts there to kind of double check that. In fact, I sent that out earlier if I'm not mistaken. There are two areas you want to pay attention to. 635 above and 624 below. 624 almost got hit already. That's kind of just below the London low there. Um, but that high could also be the next potential target. I'm expecting or looking for a pivot in the 62 to 62.4K range. And I'll explain more so why I feel that way. But as we can see here, the London low has already been hit, right? So, we could potentially pivot from here right now, but I'm leaning a little bit more towards further downside because majority of these pullbacks have consistency to them and they don't always just like bounce immediately.

[00:02:57]Okay. Now, when we look at spot volume, we can see pretty big purchases here for Coinbase in two big chunks. Everything else has been kind of flat, right? This is a 15-minute time frame. So, for the most part, we can see spot volume and per volume kind of tapering off there.

[00:03:11]But if we look at the bigger picture, this is what's a little more telling as to why I feel like this pullback's maybe got a little bit more of more legs to it or you know this this push higher is a bit of a fault somewhat of a false representation of a breakout because if you look at the volume here, let's go ahead and get this up. You can kind of see look at when the price action hit 64,000 previously. Spot volume and per volume was high, right? Even spot volume continued to be high in the next leg down inevitably started dumping. Okay, but the key takeaway here is that we've got a significant imbalance of perpetual futures and spot volume is still moderately low. So what we want right now is actually for these two to be reversed. We want spot volume to be high like this in order to constitute this breakout, right? In other words, generally speaking, when you have more spot volume, you're going to see significant continuation in that direction, whether or not it's inflows or outflows. Okay? So for the most part, right now at this point, we can see this is somewhat of a weak a weak leg up. And even though the head and shoulders pattern, which I'll show you here shortly, is invalidated, there's still more potential for a further downside or at least a retest of that descending trend. So, we'll touch on that here uh in just a minute. The thing that I want to recognize here, and this is unusual, this is good. This is starting to finally shift that balance here. Not to say it's like the only reason why the price could go up overall, but it's a helpful indication. And we can see there's a lot of sell orders at 64,500 which in recent past last what week or so almost the entire time we've been in this lower range of of 60,000 there was almost no aggregated spot interest in in uh selling selling their uh their spot bags. So as the spot bags continue to accumulate that's kind of an area of interest where you know we might see the most capitulation. Okay. So just bear in mind that that does have a target on it back. Obviously, lower ranges do too still as well, but we now have a shift or that imbalance to the upside. I touched on this earlier. This isn't super impressive or telling, but it does tell us that there's more order book pressure above the price. No matter how much buying pressure we had, these are roughly $10 million positions that are getting filled, and that the price still continues lower or couldn't pass that level. So, that reinforces resistance between 63 and 64,000, albeit it's mostly perpetual future volume, which we can kind of see reflected here. These are 10 to $30 million positions all layered in the 63 to 64k range. I counted up earlier. This might have changed a little bit, but it was close to about 200 million in sell orders.

[00:05:30]Now, that doesn't mean the price is just going to dump because of it, but it does tell us if we go to that range, which we already saw uh currently here, that there's a significant rejection there because per volume is increasing. We can see that reflected here. Perpetual volumes is higher, right? Generally speaking, that tells us there's weakness in the market or this uptrend is not as strong as it should be. Okay, those are just kind of things I like to look for future reference. Uh, you know, there it's not like an exact science by any stretch, but you know, with there being high leverage uh longs to the downside down as about 62,000, that's the heaviest chunk that makes the most sense to see that level. Okay, so I'm I'm I'm leaning more towards 62,000 and I'm going to show you exactly why I feel that that way, right? It's a combination of liquidation and price action. Now, when we look at true retail longs, they're basically zeroed out. This tells us shorts are getting hunted or too heavy. Uh which right now obviously they're taking control. Uh everyone in their dog including our dogs in our community are are short at 63,000.

[00:06:27]Right? So for the most part here, uh we're in a position right now where open interest is high. Uh generally speaking, an uptrend or a continuation higher makes more sense, right? That's kind of the trend that we're seeing right now.

[00:06:37]Um but for the moment, the lower time frames, we're seeing that divergence where there's a significant correction that that's occurring right now. Uh taking a look here at the three 3-day time frame here for liquidation. We can see 64 to 63,000 just layered with liquidation. Obviously, that's a target, right? At some point, that'll get hit, but it would make a lot more sense for us to pull back because we are overextended on the hourly time frame, but there's a ton of confluence at 62,000, but you can't really see that in liquidation levels, right? Uh 7-day time frame also tells us we're going higher.

[00:07:07]Potential for 66K on this next leg up.

[00:07:09]So, there is definitely a significant shift here. here. And if we look at short or long liquidation delta, it's really close to break even, but mildly in the bullish side of things here. Uh so honestly, when things continue to eb and flow like they have, there's no specific like massive amount of longs or shorts in either direction, that tells us that we're just kind of battling it out. We're going to continue to be rangebound until proven otherwise. So it doesn't give me a ton of confidence for like, oh, we're going to see 60 69K tomorrow, right? you you need to have a higher amount of liquidation in one way or the other to have that that continuation. Uh and it needs to be consistent with open interest. And right now, while open interest delta is high, it's not phenomenally large in the grand scheme of thing if you look at the candles themselves. So, let's go ahead and start with the lower time frames.

[00:07:53]We'll work ourselves up to the macro.

[00:07:55]Let's go ahead and go with a different time frame here. And this is kind of like the lower time frames. Generally speaking, I like to look at the uh what is it? the anywhere between the five to 15 minute time frame to get like confirmation on um you know the trends right so when I send out my scalp signals for my community I've been basically sending out one a day we've triggered what eight out of nine profit targets on those we just need one one day of course had to close early which you got to get used to by the way if you're going to be a day trader you got to get used to cutting your losses early it's a tough pill to swallow at first but it gives you so much more opportunity later right you're not stuck in a position uh anyways conversation for another day but what I want to talk about here is a 15-minute time frame there's a lot of consist consistency I've noticed with not just the 200 day SMA but more importantly uh the combination of of you know overextension on the RSI. So almost every time we come down to this 15 sorry the the uh the the 30 level on the RSI on the 15-inut time frame you'll see this these natural uh shifts in momentum. So like almost every single time you'll see the price recover and turn itself around. Okay. Now, it's not a guarantee because sometimes you'll get these kind of things where the price keeps going higher, but for the most part, um those are what I kind of try to look for. Somebody was asking me about that earlier. Uh suffice to say, the reason why that's relevant now is because we're not massively overextended. So, continuation lower makes perfect sense. Um that's not the reason why the price will come down, but that's something to look for if the price does continue further. What we should see as synonymous behavior here is this previous range basically high should work as a new low. This is also consistent on the hourly time frame. If we look at the head and shoulders now, let's talk quickly about the invalidation on the head and shoulders so people know what that means. Um, I literally posted a a post on this here earlier just kind of explaining what it looks like. Make sure you read that on my uh Twitter and Telegram. But what I'm getting at here is when it comes to a, you know, a chart perspective, head and shoulders are invalidated when a new high is established above the right shoulder. Okay? Or when the descending trend line, essentially, basically the neckline isn't broken, which we never saw. So, it's one of those two things.

[00:09:56]Um, now just say we're still in this state here. It can't go on forever. Like a head and shoulders, it's not going to be like, you know, an amalgamation of just like constant highs and lows and eventually it's like, oh, it was a head and shoulders. We broke down. That's not the case, right? So, you rangebound too long, then it kind of invalidates it.

[00:10:12]But for me, when we see this high above the local high, that tells me that we're in a position where the gears are shifting. Uh and to speak on the gears shifting, what you do is you treat this descending trend line like your friend, right? Because the concept here is that now that the right shoulder's been broken, it's broken, it's broken bullish, for lack of better terms. But the bullish the bullish break usually constitutes a retest of the descending trend, which I refer to as a bullish back test of the descending trend line.

[00:10:40]You've heard me say that probably multiple times, uh at least in different contexts. So that's what we're looking for. And that what do you know that confluence right there at 62,000. We've got a lot of moving averages right there in that range. We could even pivot right now, but I'm not a firm believer of the price just bouncing off SMAs on larger time frames. I think that other factors need to be, you know, considered. But what I'm getting at here is we got a lot of confluence here, for lack of better terms, right? Uh we've also got a previous range high here, which could even, you know, be considered the new low as well. So, I'm thinking 62,622 is a likely consideration for a pivot here. So, to my community members, u my premium traders or just say my uh even my pioneer members, I'm looking for a swing trade in the the 62k range as a rough estimate. That's tentative. Of course, that can absolutely change, but um that's roughly the area I'm interested in. Now, when it comes to the macro, just to kind of touch on this, we'll call it a day. I mentioned this yesterday, but generally speaking, we have lower highs on uh the price action and higher lows on the RSI. That's commonly referred to as a bullish divergence. So, that in combination with a potential, you know, falling wedge pattern leads me to believe if we break that descending trend line, we'll be in much better shape here for Bitcoin.

[00:11:52]We're a long ways away from that. We want to reclaim 67,000 first. That's our point of control here in this range. Uh but between now and then, just something to kind of be mindful of there. uh for those who are u you know more macro focused. But those are my thoughts here.

[00:12:04]Again, I'd love to hear yours. Why don't you comment below? I deeply appreciate it. Let's take a look at some altcoins.

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[00:12:26]Be sure to check it out. All right, folks. Quick look here at Ethereum. kind of seeing what's going on. And the quick understanding here is that this local range low is working pretty strong as a support. Uh so the approximate of 1,600 is a decent area to have considered a long in the past. I'm using bunners there because you truly don't know those ranges are going to hold till it's done, right? But at this point now, if that area to be retested, Bitcoin maintains 60 61K, then there's a solid chance that ETH will maintain 1,600 or higher. Okay?

[00:12:54]So that's a good little local range low.

[00:12:56]kind of working ourselves into a I wouldn't say this is a bullish rectangle by any stretch, but it's a rectangle pattern. Okay? So, you could even argue technically this is a bearish rectangle because it derived from the upside. So, you know, there's a lot of patterns we're seeing nowadays that are kind of constituting themselves as false positives. So, be careful reading into it. Uh but I can tell you that um generally speaking, you want to, you know, buy the buy the bottom and sell the top. It's kind of how ranges work.

[00:13:21]So, once more, long at 1600, short at 1660. That's kind of the tentative idea right now for Ethereum. Uh side by side with Bitcoin isn't amazing here. It looks like it's just kind of less reactive than Bitcoin is, which doesn't tell us too much. Um I don't really love trading coins when they when they have kind of uh they're kind of stalling out.

[00:13:41]And right now we're in this weird transition right now, too, where Bitcoin is not sure if it wants to break 63K or pull back down. It's kind of in a weird place. So anyways, those just kind of some thoughts there. But when we look at the overall circumstances here, there's open interest above 1,700 is kind of that resistance for us. Um, so just key levels, 1600 support, 1,700 resistance.

[00:14:00]We got that tendive local high of 1660.

[00:14:04]Liquidation delta is not telling us much at all. And liquidation itself is uh kind of just we're kind of squished between two large ranges. So the best practice in most cases to wait for either of these two outliers to be hit.

[00:14:16]So, hypothetically, 1 1600 swept. You take a long there. 177 1750, you want to consider a short. It's not that simple.

[00:14:23]You want to reevaluate between now and then, but that's the general idea. Okay.

[00:14:27]So, anyways, not a whole heck of a lot of amazing updates here for ETH. That's kind of the easy way to summarize it. I hope this makes sense. Let me know what your thoughts are on ETH. All right, folks. Quick look here at Salana. Just kind of touching on some of these previous ranges. We do have a fair value gap below the price, and we're in a situation right now where we're kind of working ourselves. Is that a triangle pattern? I don't know. It's kind of ugly, but we see a lot of these like kind of patterns here that are forming for majority of coins. Now, for the most part at this point, I'm not going to read too far into this, but the key takeaway here is that, you know, Salana in general [clears throat] is not really performing that phenomenally well versus Bitcoin. Most altcoins are about the same right now. So, um, the easy way to understand it here is that we're seeing sharp pullbacks if Bitcoin pulls back and significant increases if Bitcoin rises. That's not really the kind of scenario I like to trade. But let's see if there's any outliers in the backend data. Once more, 66 to 63 is that range that we're kind of stuck within. Uh based on open interest, but also the local range highs and lows. Liquidation short delta is approaching break even.

[00:15:27]So this can be a momentum shift. So if Bitcoin does break 63,000, absolutely, hands down, Salana will will too. Okay?

[00:15:34]Or at least Salana is going to break its local high range of maybe that $66 range. Uh that said though, there is more liquidation to the upside for Solanus. That gives it a slight advantage for a break higher. Uh so at this point, I'm really kind of liking the the the the circumstances here. At least I think they're slightly better than most coins, but it's not enough to warrant a position for me personally. So I would wait for Bitcoin to kind of, you know, break its range. The truth is, you know, Salana is performing well here. It looks like it wants to break higher. And if you look at really smaller time frames here, it's creating higher highs and higher lows versus Bitcoin kind of lower lows and lower highs, right? So if you kind of combine that with the overall structure here, I think Salana does have a slight propensity for further upside. But when it's this slight folks, it's really not worth the trade. At least me personally, it feels more like a gamble. So you let me know your thoughts. Are you gambling on Salana right now? Let me know. All right, folks. Quick look here at uh hype and just kind of see where we're at.

[00:16:30]Once again, you probably already know this, but the general structure is down.

[00:16:34]This does tell us with the neckline being broken that further downside makes sense. Okay, once more, this is highly reliant on Bitcoin not surging past 63,000. So, for the moment here, hype is certainly looking like it wants to go lower to fill that fair value gap just once again based on the macro structure.

[00:16:50]Let's look at the sideby side and recognize here that yeah, hype is still overly bearish here. We can see a pretty significant correction from hype. from, you know, Bitcoin's local top, we saw a 20% correction on hype and it was only about a 5% correction for Bitcoin. So, that is literally a 4x downside potential for this coin. So, if Bitcoin were to retrace to the 61K range, you really think that hype's going to hold up to it? I really don't think so. Once again, it's just kind of proven itself to be weak here. It is fairly well overextended on the macro structure.

[00:17:20]There's a ton of fair value in the 50s, so the low 50s, something to be mindful of. uh open interest isn't super relevant, but if we do end up losing that fair value gap, 46 47 is that local support or previous range high, new low support potential. We look at liquidation delta, it's shifting bullish. [clears throat] Christian, I'm sorry, I misspoke completely. It's heavy bearish and not shifting bullish whatsoever. Basically telling us that if Bitcoin were to slip a little bit, I think uh hype will slip a lot. So, just something to be kind of aware of here.

[00:17:49]We take a look at um you know, liquidation. There's not a ton of it locally. So at this point here, I mean, hype is just looking like a bearish machine. And um I would be very cautious and careful taking a long with this coin. Uh something to recognize, too, from a 4hour time frame, we can see kind of a local high of about 5750. So if hype were to reclaim 5750 and Bitcoin 63,000 higher, then I'm sure hype will go up. But between now and then with the expectation of Bitcoin kind of pulling back to the 62K range and hype effectively uh looking fairly bearish, um it's safe to presume hype's probably going to go down now. Okay, again, those are just my thoughts. I hope I'm wrong and it goes up and you you make ton of money, but uh this just kind of what the chart is telling us. All right, folks.

[00:18:33]Let's take a look here at Sueie and just kind of recognize this bullish rectangle pattern that kind of got a little bit on the extra scary side there yesterday when the price pulled back to 60.5K on Bitcoin. So, keep in mind even though this is a good range here essentially um and you know shorting the top, buying the bottom, it comes with a a trade-off, right? You got to make sure to either a have a stop loss in place in case the drop bottom drops out or more specifically just you know watch the trade or use low leverage so you're not going to get stopped out or liquidated.

[00:19:01]Um you know it's an interesting and tricky market right now and even though SUI is stronger than most coins in the current range, you can see these outliers happen. But once more, that was based on Bitcoin pulling back to that mid60k range, which was kind of scary for a lot of folks. Every time we come close to 60K, you think the bottom is going to drop out because there's just so much liquidation down there. So again, just some some thoughts here. Um, be very cautious and careful on how you how you trade Sooie right now. It's still fairly big risk. Uh, liquidation short delts is high. There's liquidation on both upside and downside and open interest is at 71 cents here. So when that we saw that pullback yesterday, similar to Bitcoin at 60K, 70 cents is effectively that support for Suie. So long story short here is that Suie does still have slightly more potential for upside, but it's not like this is a phenomenal situation by any stretch.

[00:19:51]It's just kind of letting us know that hey, we're rangebound until proven otherwise, right? So respect the range.

[00:19:56]Once the range is broken, we can reevaluate. Between now and then, I would not um I would just be cautious and careful trading this coin. I'm going to wait for uh you know the right opportunity on this coin which once again is probably that low 70cent range if we see that retested under the impression Bitcoin is not looking like it wants to break 60K. Okay. Uh overall though I think I'm slightly bullish on Sooie just based on it structure being better than most. So if Bitcoin were to you know break above 63K solid chance Sooie is going to go higher. I really think we're going to see that. So anyways um yeah that's those are my thoughts. Why don't you comment below?

[00:20:28]Let me know what you're thinking there and we'll look forward to work with you.

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