Tracking a New Front coming In...

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Monday, April 20th, 2026. I'm meteorologist Brian Shields. I hope you had a great weekend. We are watching this this front right here near the Bahamas, Florida, all the way back through Texas and Mexico. That is going to be dropping to the south. A better chance of rain as the week goes on for some of us. And watching that moisture building near Cernom, Guyana, seeing that plus watching what's going on out there in the tropical Atlantic. We've had a couple little spotty showers overnight. Guatemala, parts of Mexico, a little bit of that rain. Watching Colombia, Venezuela, back toward Guyana and Cernom where we're going to see that flood threat as the day goes on. But the northern Caribbean, we'll see a better chance of rain and even thunderstorms as the week goes on. And it is that time of year that I'm watching off the coast of Africa, the tropical Atlantic. What we're going to see over the next about 2 to 3 weeks are first tropical waves coming off of the coast of Africa. Those aren't water waves. These are uh ripples in the atmosphere, some of that moisture building in Africa, and we get those tropical waves that will move across.

[00:01:02]They don't necessarily develop this time of year, but occasionally in the month of May, and we're not too far away, uh we do see a name storm. So, know that I'm watching that. Had some dry air out here, a little bit of that dust. We've had some dust around parts of the Caribbean. Let me know in the comments section if you've been dealing with any of the dust. Now, as we go over the next 7 days, where you see the green on the map, that doesn't necessarily mean we're going to get uh all the rain in the world, but that is above average rain.

[00:01:27]Where you see the browns, that's below average. So, above average rain, parts of Honduras, for example, uh Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba, right back through Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, and then Venezuela over toward Guyana and Surinom, above average rain. We're going to watch out for some areas of flooding as the week goes on.

[00:01:45]This is the area that it's going to build throughout the week, especially by the end of the week. Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic on the edge of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos and back through uh Puerto Rico. By the way, I'll be in the Bahamas as we go over the next few days. Hopefully, I run into uh you now as we take a look at this outlook. Here we go. So, this is today. Hit or miss showers. Uh Cernin, a little bit more in the way of getting some of the rain spotty back through Central America. uh Nicaragua, San Andreas, Providencia, a couple showers, few back towards South Florida. We'll expand out few and far between, but some spotty showers possible. St. Lucia, Barbados, Trinidad, we may get a couple.

[00:02:22]But here's that front. That front that is diving down. That'll start to enhance that chance of rain. So, Puerto Rico, the DR, Haiti, Jamaica. Not that we're going to have a wash out. We're not looking at all day rain. But you could see some of this rain. And there's that front dropping right into the Turks and Caos and the Bahamas. and it will bring some cooler weather parts of the Bahamas and Florida over the next few days. Now, as the week goes on by Thursday, you could see the rain, additional rain starting to get enhanced right through here. Little blob of rain. Watching that through the Gulf, no development out of that. And then seeing that rain, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, and Cernom.

[00:02:56]And then by the end of the week, a better chance of rain and a better chance of some thunderstorms in our outlook. Cuba, we'll see more in the way of some aggressive storms. Watching out for that tail end of that front. Little moisture pulling through the Florida Keys. And then some additional rain that could get close to Trinidad and Tobago, pulling out of Guyana and Cernom. We're going to see the pattern changing especially as we get into May and we get closer to that hurricane season. More and more of us transitioning out of that dry season, getting into that wet season. So there's the front all the way from Canada down through the Bahamas.

[00:03:29]And there's some of that moisture. parts of Mexico, Texas, we're going to see some of that additional rain. Still trying to bust into some of those drought conditions. You see some of the rain here, but there's that front clearing Bermuda for tomorrow. Tomorrow, cooler, still breezy in Bermuda. There's that rain back through the Houston area, but you see this front here. That's what's going to enhance some of the rain back through Cuba later in the week.

[00:03:52]Jamaica, Haiti, and the DR. This here's on Wednesday. There's some of the rain.

[00:03:56]little impulse of moisture will ride across the Gulf as we work our way toward the middle and end of the week watching the seas because of the front parts of the Gulf and then watching near the Bahamas the next three days. That's where things are going to be elevated.

[00:04:10]So this here is a 3-day loop. This is today our Monday. Then we get into tomorrow, our Tuesday, and then this right here is our Wednesday. These brighter colors in through here, those are the higher seas. So, it is going to be choppier to rough off the southeast US back through the Bahamas and parts of the northern Caribbean, north facing waters, north shores, uh, kind of looking up toward the north. That's where we'll have some of the rougher seas. Now, as we go over the next few days, that front drops in, hit or miss shower, uh, back through Florida.

[00:04:40]Florida's mainly dry. Bahamas, spotty shower possible, better chance southern Bahamas. This is where it's going to build as we go throughout the week. You can see some of the purple showing up uh maybe around Black River, east sections of uh Jamaica, Haiti over toward Jock Mill, uh Santa Domingo, chance of some of that rain. Again, these purples that could be about 50 millimeters or 2 in of rain, it could be more in some spots.

[00:05:03]And that higher chance of rain once we get into Thursday and Friday, hit or miss shower. Puerto Rico, US, British, Virgin Islands. We're still watching out for some dust. As I mentioned, let me know in the comments section if you've had any of that. Uh it's not super widespread or super thick, but we've had some of that dust from this weekend.

[00:05:20]Some of that will carry over. Spotty shower Dominica South, Martineique, St. Lucia, Barbados, St. Vincent, the Grenardines, Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago still monitoring some of the seaweed that has been moving into some of the uh uh some locations. Venezuela, Guyana, Cernom, there's some heavier rain cernom some spots, interior sections upwards of 100 millimeters of some of the rain.

[00:05:42]Colombia staying active into parts of Venezuela. ABC Islands, we may get clipped by a shower. Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador, kind of spotty.

[00:05:50]A little more parts of Guatemala, closer to the Pacific, southern Mexico, not as much the Yucatan, Bise, hit or miss.

[00:05:58]Honduras, though, we'll see some of that rain trying to build as the week goes on. Some spotty showers, watching out for some of those downpours. There's the rain around Mexico City where we could have some spots over 100 millimeters of rain. And then back through Texas over the next three days, we'll have some spots anywhere from one to about three inches of some rain with some of that moisture, especially South Texas and even East Texas as the week goes on.

[00:06:21]That front though clearing eventually the Atlantic region of Canada down through Bermuda. But Bermuda, it could move in with an inch or two of some rain upwards of about 50 millimeters of rain will be possible depending on how it shakes out today. So scattered areas of rain possible. Jamaica, we're looking at a 50 to even 60% chance. Watching out for a few of those downpours. Let me know if you get any of those. Other spots staying dry. Cayman Islands, it bumps up a little bit. We're looking at a 40 to 50% chance with that front to the north. That could give us a shower even tonight while we're sleeping. We may see a few hit or miss showers possible near Trinidad, Tobago. It's not a wash out, but a few showers. A 40% chance the next two days for us in Barbados. A 30% chance on Wednesday. 40 to 50% chance across St. Lucia. So this is the passing variety in a 40 to 50% chance the next couple of days in Grenada. Rain chance 40% today, tomorrow, Wednesday. St. Vincent and the Grenardines in the next couple of days in Martineique. Rain chance at 40%. We slide to the north Dominica 40% chance today, a 50% chance tomorrow and a 40% chance by Wednesday. 40 to 50% chance passing showers possible in Guadaloop.

[00:07:30]Antigga Barbuda a little bit lower. 40% chance today and a 30% chance for tomorrow. in the next couple of days.

[00:07:36]St. Kits and Neas and Matzerat running at a 40% chance. 30% chance in Anguila and just a 20% chance tomorrow. This includes St. Barts. Rain chance low.

[00:07:46]Could be a spotty shower, but the rain chance relatively low. Same thing. St. Martin, Senasia, a 30% chance of a passing shower isolated back through Puerto Rico. Later in the week, that's when it may start to uh build. 20 to 30% chance. US and British Virgin Islands and the Bahamas. Watching some hit or miss showers possible, especially with that front sliding by for today. Not a lot of moisture with that though. Turks and Caos 40 to 50% chance and still watching across the Dominican Republic.

[00:08:15]By the middle of the week, the rain chance will be higher. 50 to 60% chance as well in Haiti, but building Thursday and Friday it'll be even higher. We'll be watching out for some of that flooding. Bise rain chance 30% today.

[00:08:27]May catch about a 40% chance for tomorrow. Let me know in Bise if you get any showers. Aruba, Kiraas, Bonire. Rain chance holding at that 20 to 30 uh% chance uh over the next few. Now, Guyana not as high today, but building some tomorrow and Wednesday. We'll see that rain chance bumping up and staying elevated all across Cernom, especially central interior sections. Better chance of getting some rain, watching out for some of the flooding. Cuba, 30% chance, higher chance later in the week, 40% chance for today. Costa Rica and Panama.

[00:08:57]But you see how midweek it does start to bump up to about a 60% chance.

[00:09:01]Nicaragua, 30 to 40% chance in scattered areas of rain in Honduras. Some spots dry, but others watching out for some of those downpours around Guatemala and El Salvador. In particular, Guatemala, the rain chance will gradually be bumping up as the week goes on. Mexico City. I mentioned some substantial rain a possibility up to a 60% chance for tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Yucatan Peninsula just that 20% chance over the next couple of days. Northern Colombia staying wet. Northern Venezuela also seeing some areas of rain about half and half. And then we work our way through Bermuda. The front as I mentioned passing by for today. And then tomorrow as it clears, cooler and staying on the breezy side. Orlando mainly dry, some cooler weather. Tampa mainly dry. some of that cooler weather that will be moving in temporarily and monitoring some of the rain back toward parts of South Florida, including some of the Florida Keys scattered about. Houston though, the rain chance bumping up. I showed you that rain that'll be moving through parts of uh Texas. So, the tail end of that front around scattered areas of rain building later in the week.

[00:10:06]We'll track that together. Know that I'm watching everything leading up to the hurricane season. We're going to look more and more out in the Atlantic. If you're subscribed, you'll get those updates. And thank you for being part of the weather community. and have a really good start to the week.