Rainy Memorial Day Weekend? What the Latest Forecast Shows | This Week In Weather

Added: 2026-05-27

[00:00:01]Streaming [music] from Oklahoma's own digital studio, this is Stephen Narens with this week in [music] weather.

[00:00:09]Hello once again everyone, meteorologist Stephen Narens here. Welcome back to another episode of this week in weather on this Wednesday, May 20th. As I always say, I really appreciate you watching my weekly episodes here on our News On 6 weather YouTube channel streaming from our digital studio.

[00:00:26]Coming up here momentarily, going to be kind of talking through as we get here into the latter half of May, our relative lack of severe weather so far this month. Knock on wood.

[00:00:38]That was that was me. That's what I just did, knock on wood because, you know, the month is far from over. But talking about how that's translated so far and if that will continue on into our Memorial Day weekend because we do have what looks like some pretty unsettled weather for our upcoming Memorial Day weekend. So, we'll be discussing all that here momentarily. Again, just a quick reminder of where you can find me.

[00:00:59]If you have questions, comments, and suggestions for additional topics for this week in weather beyond just kind of the forecast discussion here, my email address Facebook page is on the screen and of course, as a lot of you folks have been doing commenting on these videos on our YouTube channel and I've been trying to catch back up and catch the those comments that you folks have been leaving there. So, continue to do that if you had been doing that already. That is an effective way for you to get in contact with me about this week in weather as well. So, again you know, we've had a relative lack of organized severe weather for most of this month of May and hoping we can continue that trend on. Of course, I mean I know I'm being Captain Obvious here, but we all know how it often can go around here in the month of May and in Oklahoma and across the Southern Plains and most of the a lot of the country, frankly, this time of year, but especially Oklahoma and the Southern Plains brings to mind reminders about, you know, anniversaries of unfortunately major tornadoes we've had around here and seeing as today is May 20th, it's the 13th anniversary already. Can you believe it?

[00:02:03]Of Oklahoma's most recent or our last EF5 tornado. And for anyone that's lived around here, whether it was back then or or, you know, since then, one that no one will ever forget. Of course, May 20th, 2013, the EF5 Moore tornado.

[00:02:21]And as you know, of course, Moore has been impacted, unfortunately, by numerous, multiple major tornadoes over the past few decades. Of course, this this was the most recent EF5 tornado that that Oklahoma has had 13 years ago.

[00:02:35]With estimated peak winds of over 200 mph, it was, once again, more than a mile wide at at its maximum width. And unfortunately, 24 fatalities from that, including, as we, you know, all very sadly know, several fatalities at Plaza Towers Elementary in you know, a somber remembrance of that day. And, you know, the just another reminder of the resilience of the folks in Moore, and of course, resilience of all Oklahomans that have dealt with severe weather over and over over the years. But in particular, those folks in Moore that have had to rebuild time and time again after these devastating tornadoes. And, you know, of course, a little bit of thankfulness that we've not had anything like that since then.

[00:03:23]In the last 13 years. But of course, I mean, we've we've had plenty of, you know, significant tornadoes since then.

[00:03:29]We've had several significant tornadoes this spring already in Beggs and Enid and quite a few other communities. But, you know, 13th anniversary of the most recent EF5 Moore tornado. As always, keeping those folks that were impacted by that tornado in our thoughts. Now, >> [snorts] >> I I showed this graphic in last week's episode of this week in weather, or a graphic similar to this, I should say, uh to kind of highlight um the the the peak in tornado climatology, meaning the the the peak in likelihood of severe weather, and specifically tornadoes, occurring as we head into right into the brunt of May.

[00:04:08]Uh and again, none of this is surprising or shocking. This is just a way again of illustrating how typically just because of how the jet stream works in the month of May, we reach the middle of May, second, third week of May, and we hit the the statistical peak of when severe weather, and specifically tornadoes, uh would be most likely. So, that's what you're looking at on the screen again. Uh and without trying to, you know, I'll I'll take it full screen again so you can kind of maybe read some of the numbers and stuff on the screen. This comes from the folks at the Storm Prediction Center.

[00:04:44]And this is considered what's considered a 30-year normal. It's basically the averages of the last 30 years.

[00:04:50]>> [snorts] >> And you can see where that bull's-eye is, of where statistically a tornado would be most likely on this date, or generally this time of year, across western Kansas, central Kansas, right on into northern Oklahoma, central Oklahoma, and eastern Oklahoma. Again, that, you know, I know that none of that is surprising, but it's just another way of illustrating how uh those probabilities really kind of hit a peak or crescendo this time of year. And if you ever go to the Storm Prediction Center's website, and there's there's a wealth of information on their page, far beyond just uh the daily forecast and outlooks and discussions that they're doing. They have a deep archive of statistics that you can look up, including this, right here on my screen. This is just one snapshot image, but they've got a great page there if you kind of go go searching for some of their archive data, where you can you can see these probabilities for every single day of the year. And it that really gives you a picture and in the as you watch kind of the animation of from January 1st to December 31st where the severe weather probabilities and tornado probabilities and things like that, you know, ramp up and ramp down.

[00:05:56]It's a really cool visualization. I wish I could show you that animation here, but again, this is just you know, the snapshot of what typically is pretty much the peak of our severe weather season and tornado season threats this time of year.

[00:06:09]Contrasting that with what actually has happened. Now, first over the last several Mays. Uh these are the tornadoes that the state of Oklahoma has had.

[00:06:18]Again, uh you know, this doesn't count Kansas and Southeast Kansas tornadoes and Northwest Arkansas tornadoes, but Oklahoma in particular May tornadoes going back to 2019. 2019 we had a record amount of 105 tornadoes in the state of Oklahoma just in May in 2019. Again, that was one of those you'll never forget it type months. Now, that of course also came along with, you know, huge amounts of flooding. And of course we have fluctuated year to year since then and that's that's typical, right?

[00:06:46]Year in year out every year is going to be different. 2020 and 2021 were somewhat quieter uh overall. I mean, of course we still had tornadoes those Mays.

[00:06:57]Ups and downs for 2022 and 2023. 2024, May 2024 was another very very busy one.

[00:07:04]Uh and that included uh you know, the Barnsdall Barnsdall tornado, excuse me.

[00:07:08]Claremore tornado amongst many others.

[00:07:10]Of course, those were both very damaging uh destructive tornadoes. And then last year May 2025 was pretty close to what's considered as you can see on your screen uh average for the month of May as far as tornadoes go.

[00:07:23]This month of May we have been nowhere near that uh as far as uh you know, lots of tornadoes, right? So, in fact, so far we are on the lowest end of that scale as far as May tornadoes go. So, what you're you're at on the screen on the flip side, are the Mays where we've had the least amount of tornadoes. We've only had one May in Oklahoma uh in in our recorded tornado history with zero reported tornadoes.

[00:07:53]That was May 2005. Now, I've said this before, the uh tornado climatology or kind of the the reliable tornado statistics for Oklahoma go back to 1950. Now, of course, there have been recorded tornadoes before that, but as far as kind of like the uh >> [snorts] >> most reliable uh long-range or long-term statistical record-keeping for tornadoes in Oklahoma, 1950 and and beyond is is when we do a lot of these historical statistics, right? So, yes, of course, they were they're certainly possible that before 1950 we had Mays that didn't have tornadoes, but for that record of of time, uh May 2005 so far is the only May where Oklahoma did not have one recorded tornado. We've had a few others that only had a couple, uh and some here in recent years. May 1988 only had two tornadoes, but just over the past, you can see on the screen here, 10 to 15 years, uh 2006, 2009, 2012, 2014 were all years where we only had a few tornadoes across the state the entire month. So, now, let's talk about this month so far.

[00:09:00]So far, zero reported tornadoes this month of May across the state of Oklahoma. And I know as soon as I've put that statistic on the page, there's probably a lot of you folks going, "What are you doing? Why are you trying to jinx this?" Because that's what I'm also saying in my head right now. Why would I even try to jinx that? I know, because yes, we've still got, you know, another week and a half of the month to go, and so I'm not saying that, "Well, yeah, that wraps it up, you know, from a severe weather tornado standpoint. We won't have any this month." I certainly hope we don't have any this month. It would be fantastic if May 2026 could join May 2005 as a tornado less May in Oklahoma, but that's just another way obviously of illustrating how relatively quiet this May has been from a severe weather standpoint, especially compared to what we've gone through through the year up to this point. Of course, we've discussed it in length before about the tied record tornadoes in January, the record amount of tornadoes we had in March, and of course, April was extremely active as well. So, May being the complete opposite of that certainly has been welcome. So, again, we can have to go for the month of May still goose egg on tornadoes, reported tornadoes here in Oklahoma.

[00:10:12]Like I said, boy, it would be very nice if we could keep it that way. So, will the upcoming pattern still support us staying that way? Obviously, it's the big question not only for that, but just as now as we look ahead, it's obviously Memorial Day weekend coming up already.

[00:10:29]Came up on I think a lot of us very quickly because Memorial Day is is very early this year. It's actually the the earliest on the calendar that Memorial Day can fall. So, it it kind of snuck up on I think a lot of us this year. So, big picture going forward, big picture as of today, as of May 20th, we have an upper-level ridge centered across the Southeast United States down into the Gulf. We've had over the last few days a little bit more of a typical May jet stream setup, which we you know, again, through the first half of this month, we didn't have much of this. It that southwest flow pattern. I've talked about it you know, a lot before that southwest to northeast flow in the jet stream.

[00:11:10]We've had that pattern in place over the last few days. That's what's been bringing us storm chances going back from kind of the end of this past weekend through the first half of this week, but it's still relatively it it's it's not as intense of a jet stream flow as it often can be this time of year. Meaning though that the upper-level winds, that southwest flow over Oklahoma in particular, not as strong as it can be this time of year.

[00:11:34]Really, the stronger upper-level flow this first half of the week has been more up into uh the central plains.

[00:11:40]Uh from Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, areas that have unfortunately uh been battered by multiple rounds uh of significant severe weather, tornadoes, damaging tornadoes over the last few days that has really coincided with where that stronger upper-level flow has been. So, let's walk through this over the next few days and into the weekend.

[00:12:00]What's going to continue to happen uh is that that southwest flow pattern actually starts to ease up again a little bit, relatively speaking.

[00:12:10]It's going to be a fairly wet and stormy pattern. It looks like over the next week or beyond. Just not necessarily, you know, day-after-day of classic May severe weather threats because of the jet stream here. So, I kind of let the big picture uh roll as it takes us into uh Thursday tomorrow and then into Friday. We've had a couple of uh uh smaller, kind of slow-moving upper-level lows across Texas that's been producing a lot of rain uh down in Texas recently.

[00:12:36]Another system starts lifting to the north as we head into Thursday. That will bring another round of rain and thunderstorms back into central and then eastern Oklahoma on Thursday. But once again, >> [clears throat] >> excuse me, it's a it's a storm system that has plenty of moisture to work with and instability to to produce rain and thunderstorms pretty easily.

[00:12:57]But the upper-level wind flow is not extremely strong for this time of year in particular. So, that helps kind of limit organized severe weather threats.

[00:13:04]Certainly does help limit uh the tornado risk compared to what would often be considered common for this time of year.

[00:13:10]So, that system lifts through Thursday, rain and thunderstorms. Now, we may end up with a few strong to severe storms uh Thursday afternoon and evening, but uh heavy rain looks kind of like the big deal. That system lifts to the north on Friday. But you notice we kind of keep lining up. There's another system coming at us from the the the Pacific and then the Southwest United States back up into Texas by Saturday into Sunday as kind of the the the stronger jet stream flow that that main jet stream that main you know corridor of the most stronger up level winds is still torn north. That storm system comes at us from the south up out of Texas once again copious amounts of moisture for it to work with so that's why rain and storms will be likely but like I said weaker than typical upper level wind flow which helps limit some of the wind shear available and again just overall some of the the other key ingredients that we need for more organized severe weather so like I've been saying the long and short of what this means as I've been kind of here we go how often do I say I'm rambling again well yeah I've been rambling on this but to that point that just means that these storm systems will continue to produce almost daily chances for storms through the end of this week through this weekend and likely into next week but this will continue to be a setup at least for the time being where we have quite a few rain storms but just not significant severe weather threats and also as I'm letting the jet stream roll right on into next week you know how that notice how that upper level low it was just very slowly drifting north from Sunday into Memorial Day Monday into next Tuesday into next Wednesday uh what we consider a cut off upper level low meaning it's a it's a area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere that is more or less cut off from that main stronger jet stream flow uh which can happen in certain you know upper level setups here when that happens those storm systems are obviously are often I should say slower moving they can often be tricky to forecast because we get in that kind of setup and those upper level cut off upper level lows are just kind of drifting in any which direction they can often uh know just kind of behave as they want to regardless of what exactly the forecast models think they're going to do. So, I point that out to say how how long that upper level cut off upper level low lingers next week will determine how long rain chances linger into next week. But, it's still again a system that and and overall pattern that wouldn't lend itself to a whole lot of organized severe weather. And then beyond that, we'll see how the pattern uh shapes up by the end of next week. It get the overall signals just kind of get messy from there uh as far as organized storm systems trying to return as May ends versus that upper level ridge starting to take control and push the severe weather threats further away from us.

[00:16:03]So, kind of breaking down once again how that trends things for us for the rest of this week into this upcoming long Memorial Day weekend. Uh so, another round of rain and storms on Thursday.

[00:16:16]Severe weather threats still appear to be fairly limited. We will keep an eye out for possibly some strong wind potential uh from central into eastern and southeastern Oklahoma. I'd say the kind of the second half of Thursday into Thursday evening. It's possibility. And then uh Friday night, another round of storms develops.

[00:16:34]That signal [clears throat] for Friday night has shown up as possibly kind of a larger complex of strong and severe storms. So, of course by that point, you know, you may be out and about for the weekend whether you're out at the lake or whatever your Memorial Day weekend plans are.

[00:16:47]We just want you to be aware Friday night has has so far pretty consistently looked like a bit of a stormy night across central and eastern Oklahoma in particular. Uh we could have maybe some damaging wind potential storms in that time frame. Saturday night, kind of the same, almost a repeat performance. Uh maybe not exactly, but close to a repeat performance with another round of storms Saturday night. Some could be strong and severe. We might get a bit of a break on Sunday and then Memorial Day Monday into the first half of next week. Rain chances continue, but once again, as I just discussed on that just rain pattern, uh the the severe weather threats still appear to be relatively limited. But, even if we don't have severe weather on Memorial Day, of course, uh at this point, we're still several days out. It still looks like there'll be some weather impacts throughout the weekend up to Memorial Day just from a rain and storm standpoint. Of course, even if we're not talking severe weather, you know, storms, lightning, we want you to be very aware of that as you're doing your outdoor activities, especially if you're out at the lake or out at the pool or or whatever it may be. We want you to be very aware of that. So, here's a quick just run down on FutureView, kind of forecast radar of how at least the next few days look to pan out as we go from today, Wednesday, into tomorrow, Thursday. Uh we will have some spotty showers Thursday morning and then some point Thursday midday into the afternoon, we'll see a larger complex of storms take shape in central and southern Oklahoma and then sweep their way up into eastern Oklahoma. And you notice how as those storms get further in eastern Oklahoma later in the day Thursday, how that the you know, that line tries to firm up a little bit for lack of a better word. And that's that's the kind of thing we're watching for for possibly maybe a little bit of a ramp up of some pretty strong winds with some of those storms during the latter half of Thursday. Just something we'll be keeping a close eye on. Of course, you can reminder always frequently check back with us for more updates on that.

[00:18:35]That will start moving to the east by late Thursday night into Friday morning, we start to calm down at least into the first part of Friday. And then, we'll keep watching for the next potential storm system I mentioned as we head towards late Friday, you're going to see more storms flaring up in several areas.

[00:18:51]And then, in general, a larger complex of thunderstorms tries to march its way across the state from Friday night into Saturday morning.

[00:19:01]Again, of course, the exact timeline will still change, but just point that put that out there kind of early-ish here to say Friday night, just be prepared for possibly some you know, kind of at least for a few hours of rough and tumble stormy conditions, especially if we get kind of a larger squall line or larger complex of storms developing and then that should ease up by you know, mid-morning midday Saturday.

[00:19:22]Then Saturday night into early Sunday, we may have another kind of repeat performance on that. So here's a quick glance at the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. Temperature-wise, uh it looks like we're pretty close to normal.

[00:19:33]Normal highs for this time of year would be low 80s. That's generally what we are expecting Friday, Saturday into Sunday.

[00:19:39]Of course, like I said, there will be fluctuations here and some changes still to come especially uh with each day's rounds of storms. Of course, you know, not that this is uh groundbreaking or breaking news here, but each round of storms will also impact the temperature. So if storms happen to linger a little later into the day in some of these time periods, that you know, could bring some of these high temperatures down. But in general, uh pretty close to normal temperatures. It will likely be on the humid, kind of muggy side of things. That's you know, not also not surprising for this time of year.

[00:20:10]And just another worth a reminder that you can see kind of those percentages on the screen. Again, those will be refined as we head into the weekend.

[00:20:17]But in particular, from Friday through Memorial Day Monday, uh a lot of multiple time periods where the overnight uh late night, overnight, early morning time periods may be when it's the stormiest. Friday night into early Saturday morning, Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Uh which from a you know, weekend events standpoint would hopefully not be just the worst timing in the world that you know, could possibly mean that maybe we get a lot of your Saturday outdoor events like daytime outdoor events Saturday kind of squeezed in between those rounds of storms and possibly the same thing Sunday.

[00:20:54]Of course, again, the exact timing is something we'll watch throughout the week into the [clears throat] weekend.

[00:20:59]And in general, it's like I said earlier, I would just go ahead and plan for whatever your Memorial Day weekend plans are.

[00:21:05]Whether it is out at the lake or if you're going [clears throat] to some you know Memorial Day you know remembrance ceremonies through the weekend and up to Memorial Day just in general plan on some storm impacts plan for there to be time periods where storms will interrupt those plans and you know just be ready to kind of to shuffle those plans around a little bit and have some indoor alternatives ready to go because what we're probably going to need to use some of those indoor alternatives as we head into this upcoming Memorial Day weekend and like I said you will continue to refine those exact timelines as we always do as we get closer into the weekend so as always keep checking back with us for further updates on that so again appreciate you joining for this week in weather as always on our News On 6 weather YouTube channel and of course [snorts] if you're if you're looking for an episode that you missed where I had some topics of discussion you wanted to check back on you can go find those kind of in the playlist of this week in weather and also our most recent forecast updates from a you know daily basis basis including today's forecast update on there as well so again I appreciate you joining me here I hope you have a safe and wonderful Memorial Day weekend again stay safe with your outdoor activities and hope you also take some time to you know have some remembrance about Memorial Day those that we've lost those that sacrificed themselves for our country which is of course what we remember over Memorial Day weekend and on Memorial Day Monday so excuse me [clears throat] I hope you take some time to you know reflect on that as well hope you have a great week and like I said a safe weekend and we'll see you again next time >> [music] [music]