No, Tropical Storm Arthur Is NOT Forming....Yet

Added: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]Guys, my blood is boiling already and it's not even hurricane season just yet.

[00:00:04]No, Arthur is not forming. It's not even close. I'm going to have to issue a hype alert. I'm also going to have more on the chill coming to the northeast to start June and more of the warmth building in the west a little bit later on in the video. But we have to discuss this. I've seen so many thumbnails in title saying that Arthur is forming.

[00:00:23]Arthur is developing tropical disturbance in the Caribbean. There's none of that right now. It's just a blob of thunderstorm. Certainly to the untrained eye, all of this mess you see here on a highly curated thumbnail. May look a little concerning. I'm telling you though, I'm here to set the record straight. And all of this is just a big blobby mess of thunderstorms lifting out of the Caribbean. Certainly tropical moisture, but there is no threat for this to develop to develop. The hurricane center right now shows it clear over the next seven days. No development. Now, we may get something in the future over the next seven to 10 days, but not in the near term. So, all of those channels that are doing that will continue to have to say Arthur's forming tomorrow, the next day, the next day, the next day, the next day for like a week until actually it maybe tries to in the first couple of days of June. So, this is the water vapor imagery. Right now, we have a big dip in the jetream.

[00:01:18]You can kind of see the brown color there. That's right at the base of the jetream. But what it's doing is it's kind of reaching down into the Bay of Campe into the western Caribbean and lifting all of that tropical moisture back up into the eastern Gulf, the North Gulf Coast. Tons of heavy rain is coming. Certainly, the potential is there for flash flooding, but there is a difference. It is not going to be an organized storm or anything like that.

[00:01:43]At least not yet. Again, that chance will be there. I'm going to talk about that in a little bit. This is what we're dealing with, though. All of the red on your screen is the very rich tropical moisture that for the first time this season is lifting on out of the Caribbean. You see, we're taking this time stamp all the way through Monday, June 1st. That's the official start of hurricane season. And there's still a lot of that tropical moisture kind of draped across the north Gulf Coast and the state of Florida. That includes Cancun. That includes parts of western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica. Uh, nonetheless, we are watching the deepest moisture right here. And it's once we get beyond the start of hurricane season, June 1st, that maybe born out of that mess you see there in the deep dark purple, we could get something to develop. But to be clear, it is not imminent. And there is nothing showing signs over the next several days. I'm going to get into the long range in just one second. Take you out through the first week of June. There is the upper level pattern certainly. Uh we're going to talk about this the chill eventually coming to the uh southwest of the United States, southwest corner in the Pacific Northwest and especially California, Nevada. We're going to break that down in just a couple of minutes. An appendage of that dip in the jetream.

[00:02:54]You see those white lines there? That is the wind direction at about 30,000 ft.

[00:03:00]And notice how it just kind of continues to dive a little bit. You see that uh the lines get down towards the Yucatan as it goes up and down, up and down.

[00:03:08]That is the dip in the jetream that is responsible for kind of pulling up all of this tropical mess, if you will.

[00:03:15]Nothing organized, but some tropical moisture that, by the way, for most of the North Gulf Coast, including Florida and the Southeast, will be super beneficial because of the ongoing super drought that has been uh plaguing us through most of uh the the winter, the fall, and into the end of the spring.

[00:03:35]There's the rainfall. This is not through this Wednesday. This is through next Wednesday. This is getting us through the next the first couple of days of June. And I think some of these numbers can be doubled or tripled. This is just a straight up raw model output from the European model I wanted to show you. But you clearly see the connection back to the Caribbean there. And once we get into the first couple of days of June, now we're starting to maybe see signs of something tropical develop.

[00:04:00]There's the heavy rain though prior to that entity developing. So drought busting rain. It's not going to end the drought for most everybody across the North Gulf Coast. However, it will be beneficial. Obviously, we'll take what we can get, but it's going to take rounds and rounds of this and likely uh through the middle of summer until the drought, especially in Florida and Georgia, is going to be eradicated. But most of that will be possible uh uh most of that will be positive, I should say, with uh obviously not going too far in the other direction. So, I want to show you this now. If you followed the channel for a while, and if you're new here, hit that subscribe button. I'm a certified meteorologist and uh we tell it like it is. Uh dispelling some of the hype and fear and misinformation that's out there. And again, this is already going wild. And uh I'm going to go to an early grave here if we're talking about something like this on May 26. We haven't even gotten into the season.

[00:04:53]Ensembles are what you want to look at.

[00:04:56]A little fiery today. Wait till we get into June. Here we go. Uh June 5th. This is the European Ensemble through June 5th. Each one of those lines represents a different ensemble member from the European that is hinting at possible tropical development. Keep in mind that there are five uh there about one, two, three, there about five or six, seven, eight lines on there. There are 51 European ensemble members. The probability not that great right now for tropical development. And by the way, this is through June 4th and the 5th. So that's nothing imminent. That's like 10 days away. Let's go to another ensemble.

[00:05:32]Well, the GFS as it typically is is a little more aggressive. This is through the 4th, but uh just goes to show again they're all the L's. So certainly more ensembles are online. It's not in May.

[00:05:44]It if it's possible it's early in June.

[00:05:47]More on that again in a second. Here we go with the Google DeepMind. This one kind of destroyed all models last year.

[00:05:54]So you put a lot of stock into this one.

[00:05:56]It's the AI model.

[00:05:58]It has three of its members of its 50.

[00:06:00]So again, not a high probability, but certainly it's trying to sniff something out there. This is going to be through uh early June as well, uh June 5th. So again, if there's going to be development, these channels are going to say Arthur is forming pretty much every day now for the next 7 to 10 days. And just keep in mind, as I mentioned earlier, that anything would be easy to make look menacing on a thumbnail when it's just a blobiness of mess of tropical moisture coming through. We had long talked about this over the last couple of weeks, did a video two weeks ago that we were expecting the potential for some tropical development. We called it early season tropical shenanigans.

[00:06:48]You can go look at that video. Um, that's not a pat on the back. I'm saying that the pattern is conducive to getting a low-end tropical storm in the western Caribbean, northeastern Gulf, but it's through the first week and a half of June from about June 1st to June 10th or so. That was the window. Not right now.

[00:07:10]What we are seeing now is just that pure tropical moisture surging up from the Caribbean.

[00:07:18]Certainly can cause some flooding and landslides. Absolutely. I'm not saying there will be no impact. However, to use something that is meteorologically not a tropical system and say that there's tropical development, there's a problem there.

[00:07:34]Temperature anomaly.

[00:07:36]Post in the comments what you think. Uh, hit that subscribe button if you're new here. And just like no garbage and no BS, we call ourselves the garbage crew because we take out some of that trash that is honestly out there and getting ready to to buckle up for it even in a likely quieter season. Temperature anomaly in the southwest. It is big right now. All the blues and purples.

[00:07:56]It's pretty chilly in LA and Las Vegas, Phoenix even. I mean, we'll take that for sure. We do have the heat building.

[00:08:03]This is coming up. This is for Friday, May 29th. more of the heat building across the northern plains, but the chill is going to invade and really most of the country is chilly relative to normal. And then it flops to start June and we've had what a day or two of spring-like weather in the Northeast. More often than not, it's been chilly. And to start June, you saw all that blue there. Um it's going to think be I think it's going to be a pretty chilly start. Speaking of cool, San Diego in the 60s. LA in the LA in the 60s is uh mid San Francisco I should say is in the mid60s. Um Las Vegas is at 82. Tucson's at 93. That's below normal.

[00:08:45]Obviously still warm, but it could be a lot worse. Um May not North Dakota though show you that heat building records potentially breaking into the upper 90s. That warmth as we get into the early start of June surges to the east. International Falls nearing 90.

[00:08:59]Hey, the heat's back in Tucson. doesn't last long. Record heat possible by Tuesday, June 2nd. And then there's the chill to start the month of June. Really east of the Mississippi River. You see all those blue boxes representing below normal temperatures. Uh 73 in Pittsburgh, 75 in Detroit. I'm not saying it's cold, it's just cooler, much cooler than where it should be for this time of the year. Even Orlando back to the mid 80s. But that is not really a cold air mass. It's not a cold front where you see the blue from San Antonio back to New Orleans to Jackson. That is because of that wet pattern that keeps clouds and rain around which obviously naturally keeps us on the cooler side.

[00:09:34]Alrighty guys, thanks for letting me rant today while also drop some meteorological knowledge. But no, to my friends in the Western Caribbean, to my friends across the North G Coast, there is nothing at this juncture developing in the Caribbean or in the Gulf. That possibility is there for sure. We've talked about it at length with sound science and meteorology, the Madden Julian oscillation, uh the low wind shear, the high water temperatures, all that stuff coming together for that possibility.

[00:10:05]But that doesn't come until the first week of June. If you found this content helpful, do me a favor, hit that thumbs up button, and I will catch you guys in the next