California Weather: Major Heat Coming!

追加: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Hey everybody, Michael Snyder, California weather watch. Today is May 7th and right now we are looking at the mid-level water vapor loop. There's the state of California to the right, Hawaiian Islands, the bottom left. This is the northeast Pacific Ocean view. You can see this mid latitude cyclone well off to our north and west here and we're going to do some ridge building. We're going to do some warming up and we'll take a look at how long that is going to last. We'll take a look at some extended range forecast here and we'll take a look at the latest on El Nino as we go towards the end of the video here this morning. So, taking a look at where we are this morning on the visible satellite imagery. You can see we've got some marine layer out there central coast right up against the coastline into the Bay Area into the valleys.

[00:00:42]Fairly well socked in this morning even up into some of the Sacramento Valley.

[00:00:46]There is some sunshine there though across southern California and you can really see the extent of that marine there out over the Pacific Ocean. Uh sunny inland and you can see what remaining snow there is across some of the Sierra Nevada here on the go 18 satellite imagery. So if we take a look at what is going on there is that system out there. Let's go towards this morning where we are right about now. There's that system off to our north and west and you can see the ridge is going to be in charge here over the next few days.

[00:01:14]However, there is some interesting stuff coming. You can see how this troughing moves a bit closer to our coastline as we go through next week. It's not exceptionally strong, but it would cool us down and this would kind of keep heights a little bit lowered here, which would uh mean for some more onshore flow. It wouldn't mean extreme heat as we go a little bit further off into the forecast. And you can kind of see that troughing dropping down across some of the inner mountain west there. That's what the control run shows. The ensemble doesn't really show too much in the way of troughing there. And I'm not going to show that right now because we're not going to get too much into detail with that yet. The thing we have coming up here though is some heat as we go on into the early portion of next week. And you can see the moderate risk for the Sacramento Valley. And you see the oranges mean that moderate risk there.

[00:01:58]And it gets towards the Bay Area a bit there. Maybe San Jose. Uh not along the immediate coastline too much though.

[00:02:03]However, kind of typical stuff. Now also I want did want to mention this. We do have some uh gusty north winds right there along some of what Santa Barbara County. The wind advisory goes on from 5:00 p.m. this afternoon to 3:00 a.m. on Friday. Some north winds 2030 gusting to 50 mph. Santa Barbara uh county southwestern coast and mountains and western range. Um yeah, all the way through Friday morning. Um so total precipitation in inches. I'm going to scroll through the next six days pretty quick. Right at the end, you can see a little bit of some thunderstorm activity across the Sier Nevada, but not much to speak of in the way of precipitation here over the next few days. Um, other than maybe a shower across the higher terrain of the Sier Nevada really. Now, if we take a look at what's going on here at 5,000 ft, you can really see the ridge is going to be in charge and kind of staying with us. Now, this is the ensemble mean, and you can kind of see how that heat remains across a lot of the western portion of the USA until we get up over 200 hours out, and then it shows some signs of maybe cooling down a bit there. Uh, but again, we'll revisit that. I mean, yeah, it's not a great signal there, but it's definitely warmer than the control run I showed you a few slides ago. Now, if we take a look at those daily 2meter maximum temperatures, of course, you got the state of California here. You can see things starting to warm up today. 100° maybe out towards Palm Springs. Uh we go on in through Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday. By the time you get towards Monday, you can see some areas in the Sanwaqin Valley going up over 100°.

[00:03:34]Death Valley, you're talking about maybe 115. You're talking about some pretty lofty temperatures out there across some of the deserts and out towards western Arizona here as well as we really ramp up these temperatures except for maybe the immediate coastline. But yeah, s Southern California getting up over 90 degrees there. Also, even up towards the Bay Area. I mean, Reading into the Sacramento Valley, 97 degrees. Yeah. So, you can see that warmth. And there's Tuesday, another extremely warm day likely coming up. And then we cool down a little bit here, but not too much. We keep the temperatures elevated looks like through next week. But again, that depends on what comes. And if we do get a trough trying to swing through the area as we go towards the following weekend, who knows? We'll just have to watch that and see how it goes. But if we look at Palm Springs, I mean, look at some of these days coming up. The red line is the average temperature. And you can see by the time we go towards Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, we're very close to 105°.

[00:04:29]Staying above normal, but cooling back down a little bit here through the extended portion of the forecast. Uh kind of similar picture here for other areas. Sacramento, maybe getting up into the upper 90s by the time we get towards Tuesday. No promises on that. But yeah, average temperatures for this time of year are in red. The average low temperatures are down here in the blue.

[00:04:48]Uh San Jose, California, look at this.

[00:04:50]Maybe touching up towards 90° Monday and Tuesday. Again, we'll see how that goes.

[00:04:54]Las Vegas, very warm. Perhaps some first 100 degree readings of the year as we go through May 11th or 12th. And Phoenix getting way up above 100° here as we go on in through the later portion of the weekend and through the early portion of next week. Bakersfield. Also, look at Monday and Tuesday. 104 on the latest model there. That is, you know, it's almost 20° above normal for this time of year. And again, unless you've been living under a rock, you probably have been hearing the chatter about a potential strong El Nino. Looks more and more likely. Every single update we get, every single model run we do looks more and more likely of a very strong El Nino starting to roll in here. Maybe a super El Nino as well as we go on in through the summer, fall, and winter of next year. And the European seasonal goes out all the way towards November. And it does start to show some above normal signal coming in right at the end of the runs there. It also shows some warm temperatures as we go through the summer months upcoming. So yeah, you got to remember that. I mean, look at some of the coastal areas. You go September, October, November. That almost looks like an offshore wind pattern there. The Santa Anas and those offshore winds can really get ramped up at this time of year. Now, if we take a look at the CFS, climate forecast system, and we go off in towards summer, it actually shows some above normal precipitation here as we go through portions of the summer.

[00:06:12]So, who knows? This one flips and flops back and forth. That's something it hasn't been flipping and flopping back and forth on is the moisture here as we go on in towards the fall months. I mean, look at this for California. Look, by the time we go November, December, January, and then we go December, January, February, every single run continues to paint a pretty wet picture here for portions of the West Coast, mainly being California. Kind of a classic El Nino signature showing up.

[00:06:38]Run to run here in the CFS. And yeah, with a strong super El Nino, maybe that will be the case. Anyway, it's not something you want to start betting on just yet, but that's something we will be watching over the next few months.

[00:06:51]And I showed this yesterday as well, but there's July right here. And what you want to look at here is that warm tongue across the equatorial Pacific. You know, definitely an El Nino coming. And perhaps again, a strong or a super El Nino is coming. As you can clearly see, it's going to be in charge as we go through the month of November. So 6 to 10 day, this should be no surprise. Got that above normal kind of locked in here across the west and that below normal signal across portions of the state.

[00:07:17]Check me out on Patreon and Facebook as well. and I will catch you guys in tomorrow's forecast.