💥RUSSIA ATTACKS VILNIUS WITH DRONES! PUTIN’S CRUEL PROVOCATION EXPOSED! DOOMSDAY FOR RUSSIA BEGUN!

Added: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]On May 20th, Russia struck the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius. In Lithuania, an air raid alert was declared because of a drone. Children are hiding under their desks. The country's leaders were taken to a shelter. In Vilnius, the airport and the railway station was shut down. Friends, on May 20th and 21st, a major fire is raging again in the Moscow region.

[00:00:20]Warehouses are burning. Vilnius, Lithuania, a drone threat has been declared.

[00:00:25]There is footage showing residents already hiding in basements. The Moscow oil refinery has suspended operations after Ukrainian sanctions, Reuters reports. But drones also attacked Kstovo in the Nizhny Novgorod region and Nevinnomyssk Azot in the Stavropol region of Russia. An invasion is being prepared. Belarus has closed access to forests in 19 districts along the borders with Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania.

[00:00:48]And what does this mean?

[00:00:50]Does this mean there is a threat in Volyn, the area of Rivne region near the nuclear power plant, pressure on the Suwalki Corridor, or is it a diversion of forces without an offensive? Let's discuss all this with the well-known military analyst Roman Svyatanov. Roman Grigoryevich, welcome.

[00:01:07]Thank you. Wishing you good health.

[00:01:09]Roman, so many topics. Let's start with Moscow. There's another fire there. I don't know if it's drones or concerned citizens, but there's a major fire raging there. Warehouses and more are burning, some kind of military facility.

[00:01:21]What do you think?

[00:01:24]Well, right now there are a lot of so-called concerned citizens who have become active, either acting on their own initiative, so to speak, or activated as, for example, informants for our special services, which also happens. We need to understand that Russia is under quite serious pressure from all sides.

[00:01:41]It's not just our special services dealing with these issues. The intelligence agencies of those countries that currently consider Russia a threat to themselves are also involved. So, there are a lot of people working on this, roughly speaking, from Norway all the way to Mongolia. That's about how it is.

[00:01:57]So, Russians are facing a big problem right now because they can't really keep track of everything since the range is truly vast.

[00:02:05]As it used to be said, what is the problem for Russians? It's about their level of stupidity or well, because of their stupidity, they don't understand where it's coming from, whether it's from us, from the north, from the south, or from the east, from far away.

[00:02:18]Naturally, such a large number of concerned people all across Russia right now creates a very serious threat for the FSB. They have to spread themselves thin all across Russia. Naturally, when there is some kind of targeted at least strike, they don't have time to respond.

[00:02:33]They only get involved afterwards. That is, later they try to find out, maybe through cameras or through certain information that is passed on, including by their own agents who have already been embedded. That's why this is, so to speak, the eternal war of the dagger, or rather, the sword and the shield. This war has been going on for thousands of years, and yet at this moment, it is bearing fruit in our favor. So, things are burning, burning, just like Moscow is now, Russia will burn, and more will burn ahead, believe me. Soon, even the pit bulls will start burning.

[00:03:04]They don't just catch fire for no reason. If the pit bulls are catching fire, it means someone needs them to.

[00:03:10]So, it's precisely these kinds of mechanisms that are now being launched and tested. And soon, we'll see quite serious problems for Russians even beyond Moscow. But right now, at this moment, it's specifically in Moscow because all the attention is still focused on Moscow. Moscow is the so-called decision-making center. In other words, it's the platform that not only the Russian republics are watching, but in fact, the whole world is watching it, too. If Moscow is burning, then it means you can set fires in other directions as well. Why was it important to set Moscow on fire on May 9th?

[00:03:41]Specifically on May 9th, they offered such an interesting opportunity.

[00:03:47]Roman Grigoryevich, and now, of course, while Putin ran off to China to meet with Xi, We attacked the oil refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod region, and then Nevinnomyssk, Azov, and Stavropol Krai.

[00:03:58]So, what do you say about this in the public sphere?

[00:04:02]Well, this is already routine work for our Ukrainian defense forces. So, I call it, well, the aviation and missile components. This is the Ukrainian professional army, and in this sense, it will essentially crystallize around aviation, the professionalism of the army, the soldiers, and everything else.

[00:04:17]Lately, well, we've had a big problem through the territorial recruitment centers and a certain degree of Russification. Some people have ended up in the Armed Forces of Ukraine by accident, just by chance. And these are all good people, all capable, all Ukrainians. The point is not everyone is meant to fight, and we need to understand that clearly. And professionalism, it isn't forged in a snap. It's shaped by everything from genetics to specific training, ideally, of course, in military academies. So, at the moment, our army is somewhat diluted precisely because of this Russification, but so to speak, aviation has been spared from this. It just happened that you can't get into aviation straight from the street. You need certain knowledge, and specifically professional knowledge as well. That's why we can say now that the Ukrainian professional army is being forged from the standpoint, from the platform of the aviation component, and further operations in the enemy's rear are yielding results for the main objective of destroying Russian oil infrastructure. A fairly large number of drones with strategic range capabilities, about 1 and 1/2 to 2,000 km, are taking to the skies and striking almost the entire European part of the Russian Federation. In other words, the geography is quite extensive.

[00:05:23]Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod, this is the Volga region. Kstovo is on the right bank of the Volga, near Nizhny Novgorod.

[00:05:30]This is Nizhny Novgorod, the so-called Nizhny Novgorod oil refinery. Our drones have already struck there several times, and given the level of damage inflicted on such facilities, these attacks are being repeated constantly. These attacks need to be repeated at least once a month.

[00:05:44]And And Russians, within 3 or 4 weeks, with the help of the Chinese and who knows what else restore everything. So naturally we need to thin them out. It's already become routine work. Kudos to the guys who set this goal for themselves and are carrying it out professionally. This direction is to the northeast from us, but we're not neglecting the south or the east, meaning the north Caucasus all the way to the Caspian at least. So this direction is also being worked on. For example, Nevinnomyssk Azot, that's the direction toward the Krasnodar and Stavropol regions.

[00:06:14]It's also been hit more than once already.

[00:06:16]Azot, it produces and for us the destruction of this chemical plant is important, for example. It produces so-called ammonium nitrate, which is a derivative used for certain purposes, including the production of various types of explosives. That's why in addition to eliminating one of the sources of revenue for the Russian treasury, we're also removing one of the components in the production chain for making those same explosives. That's why a proper well-executed approach is important and this will happen every day. So now, basically, as I said, why is it routine work? It's all planned now. Systematic plan, just the way aviation likes it in principle. In this sense, aviation isn't about acting on impulse. There's a certain plan for the quarter, for the month, and then from month to quarter. And then the task is carried out basically based on the objectives that are currently being targeted. It can be said with confidence that the plan is to completely destroy the Russian oil industry in the European part, the European part of the Russian Federation.

[00:07:15]Roman Grigoryevich, there's some troubling news from Lithuania. There's a drone threat in Vilnius. Children in schools are hiding under their desks.

[00:07:22]The footage is just horrifying and in the basements, well, it's just honestly, when you watch it, it's terrifying.

[00:07:28]And what will happen next? As I understand it, this will be a permanent drone threat for Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. What do you think? Now it's already Vilnius.

[00:07:39]Well, when your neighbor is an idiot, you have to you're forced to somehow ensure your own safety until that idiot either finally leaves your area or departs this world. That's at the very least as far as the Russian Federation is concerned. Well, things just didn't work out for us. We weren't lucky.

[00:07:53]Many countries, by the way, have been unlucky.

[00:07:55]Starting from Norway and probably ending with North Korea because the Russians to the north to the southeast, they actually have several dozen kilometers of border along the Tumen River with that very same North Korea. They're also unlucky because when your neighbor is an idiot, these problems will persist until he falls apart. So, it's not just the Baltic countries. You have to look at the entire perimeter of the Russian border, which is most likely drawn along the borders of those republics that, let's put it mildly, had the misfortune of living next to Russians across the border.

[00:08:30]Naturally, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia are currently in the spotlight since our drones are launching fairly powerful attacks toward St. Petersburg.

[00:08:38]That is it is important for us to stop the flow of Russian oil by destroying or at least disabling those transshipment points in the Primorsk and Ust-Luga areas, those ports near St. Petersburg, through which the Russians transport a significant percentage, several dozen percent, of the oil that is exported.

[00:08:54]Therefore, naturally, the flights of our drones from Ukraine to St. Petersburg cover about 1,000 km and the Russians can intercept them. The Russians can also, using spoofing, redirect them, for example, to the Baltic countries as well. It's not just Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia. Issues need to be addressed regarding Poland, Sweden, Finland as well, and even Norway. Anything can happen. That's why it's important to create a certain security zone.

[00:09:19]And it is absolutely crucial to teach the local civilian population how to effectively identify and avoid the various dangers that could be brought about by the Russian intervention and the so-called Russian war because even a drone produced in Ukraine, the Russians can and they've shot down thousands of them.

[00:09:38]The Russians have hundreds if not thousands of our down drones stored in their warehouses, which they can get back in the air using the same sledgehammer and some makeshift repairs, and then direct them at the Baltic countries. So, at the moment, this is happening in a kind of causes belly mode, and they're tying us into it because right now some of our units are stationed in the Baltic countries, providing, let's say, a certain level of security, fully aware that sometimes these could be our own drones redirected by the Russians.

[00:10:04]And on the other hand, having such a neighbor means you have to be constantly constantly on combat alert until it falls apart, at least another 3 years minimum. We just need to brace ourselves and help Ukraine bring about the collapse of the Russian Federation through self-dissolution, obviously.

[00:10:19]That is, it will dissolve itself just like the Soviet Union did. In fact, the Baltic countries also took part in this process and understand perfectly well how it was carried out more than 30 years ago. And that's the mode we need to work in, protecting our citizens.

[00:10:32]That's why a very smart and important approach right now is educating the civilian population about air threats, as well as how to counter them. Now, we can say that at least the destruction of some drones that entered the Baltic countries has already been confirmed, and these are NATO structures.

[00:10:47]Moreover, Hrynkevych, the NATO commander in Europe, has already confirmed the transfer of authority to the tactical level for making decisions about destroying such threats. And this is also a very correct and competent step, a move. In other words, you could say that a certain foundation is already being laid. That is, a solid basis is being built for creating a good, sensible, and serious security system for the civilian population of the Baltic countries. Everything is competent, everything is correct.

[00:11:15]Roman Yuriyevich, we are moving on to the topic that everyone is discussing today. Belarus has closed access to forests in as many as 19 districts along the borders with Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania.

[00:11:26]These restrictions could be used to covertly move troops. The former deputy chairman of the Security Service of Ukraine, deputy head of the SBU, Yahoon, lists among the possible threat scenarios in Volyn, the area of Rivne region near the nuclear power plant, pressure in the Suwalki corridor, or diverting forces without an actual offensive. Considering that after his visit to Moscow on May 9th, Lukashenka announced a partial mobilization and said that the security forces must be deployed, this means full combat readiness.

[00:11:53]What does all this mean?

[00:11:56]Well, let's break everything down step by step.

[00:12:00]First, anyone can plan offensive operations anywhere and with anything.

[00:12:03]The thing is, a plan is just a plan, ranging from the most far-fetched to the one being drawn up right now on the table. So, there can be a huge number of plans. The real question is about the forces and resources available to carry out any given tasks.

[00:12:17]So, as of now, there are not enough troops in Belarus to carry out any offensive operation, no matter where it might be directed. Not towards Lithuania, not towards Latvia. They don't even share a border with Estonia, not towards Poland, nor towards Ukraine.

[00:12:31]They simply do not exist.

[00:12:33]So, you can talk about plans, you can even smoke those plans if you want, but if you have nothing to drive, no matter how much you plan, you're not going anywhere until you buy a car, until it's delivered, until you break it in, you're not going anywhere.

[00:12:46]And it's exactly the same situation here. Lukashenka doesn't have enough forces or resources to carry out offensive operations in any direction.

[00:12:53]But he can make plans with Putin. After all, they're Russians, they're already conquering Mars. Hasn't anyone heard?

[00:12:59]The Martians have already started.

[00:13:02]Realizing that the Russians are making plans, but the Martians have already begun building fortified areas there, digging out fortifications, and they bought dragons' teeth from the governors of Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk. In other words, they're buying them up over there. Well, something like that. Well, obviously we're being sarcastic, but the Belarusians simply have nothing with which to launch an offensive anywhere.

[00:13:23]That's one. Second, how could they, or rather, how could the Belarusian territory be used when the Russian army is going to be deployed there? Even if the Belarusian army is fully mobilized, the most it could be used for is defending Minsk.

[00:13:36]Not even for the defense of Belarus itself. It's just not realistic. There are more than 2,000 km of territory.

[00:13:43]They physically just can't defend it, let alone launch an offensive. What kind of offensive are we talking about?

[00:13:49]So, they can only defend Minsk, and that's if they mobilize everyone. All the guys in Belarus who are capable of holding a weapon. Minsk is the absolute limit.

[00:13:58]And as for Lukashenka now blocking access to the forests, maybe he just went to pick mushrooms, who knows?

[00:14:03]That's just Lukashenka for you. I'm showing all this now specifically in this context because there's simply nothing to drive. No matter how much you plan to go somewhere, if you don't have a vehicle, you can't go anywhere. So, what does a vehicle mean in this case?

[00:14:17]We're talking about at least a force of 100,000, 150,000. So, two or three armies that would have to be deployed somewhere, let's say on a certain area, and that would need to prepare for offensive operations.

[00:14:29]Deploying three armies on a single area takes at least a year to a year and a half.

[00:14:34]So, within a year or a year and a half, if Russian armies were being transferred and formed on Belarusian territory, we would know about a year, a year and a half, that's the minimum. Right now, at this moment, there is absolutely no information anywhere that even 50,000, even a single Russian army is present on Belarusian soil. Well, there isn't. And there's nowhere to get them from. Where could they theoretically get them from?

[00:14:56]Well, only from the Ukrainian front.

[00:14:59]But, they're already short on the Ukrainian front. Right now, they're lacking personnel about 100 to 150,000.

[00:15:05]They're now urgently going to look for them somewhere. Right now, I don't know what they're going to do, but they urgently need about 100 to 150,000 Russian federal troops for the eastern front. So, to talk about planning offensive operations in any context, I'll repeat, anyone can make plans, but acting is another matter. There's nothing to move on.

[00:15:24]And until about 50,000 Russian soldiers are deployed in the Belorussian theater, that is on Belorussian soil, there's really no point in even looking in that direction. But, the most interesting thing is that this topic is being hyped up. Why is it being hyped up? What's more interesting is that it's being hyped up by Russians together with Belorussians and also by Ukrainians, including the Ukrainian authorities who have picked up on this topic and are now discussing it as well.

[00:15:48]Why do the Russians and Belorussians need this? Since the main the primary objective for the Russians in the offensive operation of the summer military campaign of 2026 will be carried out in the Donetsk direction in Donbas. Well, it's not just Donetsk, but roughly part of Kharkiv region, Luhansk, Donetsk, part of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions. That is in this direction, well, Huliaipole, Kupiansk.

[00:16:11]Offensive operations will take place roughly along this section of the front.

[00:16:15]So, this is the center of the front. In order to reduce the density of our troops, they are creating a certain so-called informational pressure. Last year, it was the Kursk direction.

[00:16:25]And this year, it's the Belorussian direction, but that's an episode, a pure episode. There is no Russian army in Belarus. Now, why are they raising the issue about Odessa again? Now, we keep hearing Odessa, Odessa, Odessa, Odessa.

[00:16:36]What about Odessa? To reach Odessa, they would need at least 1 and 1/2 million troops just to say cross the Dnipro and move toward Odessa. But, they don't have that army. They would need to create an army twice as large and that's unrealistic, pure fantasy. So, it's an information psychological special operation. For what purpose?

[00:16:54]To stretch out along the flank while our troops are there and then strike at the center.

[00:16:58]The interesting thing is this happened last year, too, but last year it worked.

[00:17:02]Last year, when the Russian information psychological operation began, it was picked up in Kyiv. Remember those crazy deputies who started digging in around Kyiv? So, Syrskyi redeployed part of the troops from near Pokrovsk to the Kursk direction just to calm things down, as they say. Well, they calmed things down all right. They simply gave up Pokrovsk and Myrhorod. Just blatantly surrendered them last year with that redeployment.

[00:17:25]This year now everyone has picked up on this Russian-Belarusian information psychological operation including in Ukraine. For what purpose? Maybe for the same purpose as last year to surrender Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, to technically give them up, to withdraw combat-ready units from near Sloviansk now and redeploy them say to a Chernihiv or God forbid toward Volyn or Rivne for example, right? Well, I mean that's really far away.

[00:17:47]And that's it, just like that. Here you go, you've treated the Russians.

[00:17:51]Come on in, take it as they say. The Russians are idiots. If you offer them something, of course they'll take it in this sense.

[00:17:57]So, this is the main problem here. Don't fall for it right now until you hear that at least 150,000 strong Russian army has been deployed in Belarus. Don't buy into these topics. And our leadership needs to be constantly kicked to make them pay attention to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, to Pokrovsk, Myrhorod, Dobropillia, and Huliaipole at this moment. They were running around dealing with issues of countering Belarus. Well, just look at Lukashenka from a military perspective. What are Lukashenka and his army? It's just a mustache, underwear, and two buckets of potatoes. That's it.

[00:18:29]Where are they going to advance? At best, they can only step on their own tail. And that's the maximum.

[00:18:35]What other um because lately politicians have been bringing up this topic, what other reason could there be for shifting attention to the Belarusian direction?

[00:18:43]It's corruption in the office or rather in this so-called chancellery. Well, the corruption is absolutely terrible starting from Mingesh and Zuckerman and ending with Yermak who was released there for 140 million. So, that's the main problem. They're covering it up at the moment telling stories about those mustaches with underpants advancing on Kyiv. Well, maybe the mustaches will crawl to Kyiv, but the underpants will stay at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.

[00:19:07]Back in the day, General Nayev did a good job there, built a pretty solid fortified area. Because well, what's good here? Well, you can only laugh at these weirdos who are now trying to pull the wool over the eyes of the Ukrainian army, of Ukrainian society, which already understands military realities perfectly well. Come on, don't try to pull this nonsense after all. Just stop trying.

[00:19:28]Roman Grigoryevich, you are absolutely right. For some reason, the Financial Times came out last week, not this week, with this information that Putin wants control over Kyiv and Odessa, and that he plans to put forward new territorial demands if he captures Donbas. So, everything is in the category of if. Why is all this even necessary?

[00:19:47]I mean, exactly. Yes.

[00:19:51]You're bringing up a very good point.

[00:19:52]Yes, specifically about that publication. So, it's not just Moscow that's involved. All the currently corrupt news agencies are included, the ones that will print anything for a small fee. As I have previously mentioned, the situation has already reached a point where Martians are actively purchasing and searching extensively for dragons to eat somewhere on Earth.

[00:20:11]And they are carrying out some kind of mysterious operations with them back on Mars.

[00:20:20]So, naturally, that includes Odessa, Transnistria, and so on and so forth.

[00:20:24]But, those are the flanks.

[00:20:26]But, take a look at the front line.

[00:20:27]These are the flanks along which they're trying to stretch our already limited forces and resources at the very least.

[00:20:33]For what purpose? To capture Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. And here, everything will depend on which direction our military and political leadership chooses to take. So, which side are you playing for?

[00:20:59]Write a report. If you can't handle it, generals, if you can't cope, then write a report, put it on the table, and go work in agriculture, mowing hay for the dogs, or maybe go somewhere as ambassadors like to Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso.

[00:21:15]Roman Lvovich, does Putin's visit to China have any significance primarily from a military strategy perspective?

[00:21:20]What do you think? That is, could there be some kind of agreement between Xi and Putin?

[00:21:32]It is slow-moving in terms of, say, the unfolding of hostilities.

[00:21:37]If you look at it over time, it's a slow-burning war with Europe, which is reducing the military potential of Russia, Europe, and partly America.

[00:21:46]Well, it's clear that this is beneficial for Xi Jinping, naturally, no matter what he says on air.

[00:21:51]On air, they announced that the further conflict between Ukraine and Russia, they've already come out with Putin and started to dwell on this issue.

[00:21:59]The further conflict between Russia and Ukraine should be resolved in accordance with the United Nations Charter, and so on and so forth.

[00:22:08]It's clear that Xi Jinping will help Putin wage war against Europe through Ukraine. He won't talk about that.

[00:22:46]That's it.

[00:22:47]And forget about any contacts with Putin or with anyone else on any other issue.

[00:22:51]In other words, first comes sovereignty, first the Russian troops follow the course of the Russian warship away from our land, and then maybe we'll do some Xi Jinpinging through Xi Jinping somewhere if we need it after that, and that's it. That's the kind of approach we should have. That's why we need to take advantage of these issues, especially those related to China's support. They have nowhere else to turn.

[00:23:11]The thing is, what's the real question about China? Right now, for Xi Jinping, the main issue with China is related to Taiwan. He will support the restoration of sovereignty and territorial integrity of any state that is a member of the United Nations. He needs to restore sovereignty to take control of Taiwan.

[00:23:27]So, this should be used diplomatically, and the entire paradigm needs to be changed. In other words, with the capitulationist approach, which half of the office, actually, it's not even an office, it's a chancellery, keeps pushing, they are obsessed with the idea of we stand where we stand, we lie where we lie, we sit where we sit, we hang where we hang. Yes, that's their idea. That is to surrender the occupied part of our territory by giving up armed struggle for it. So, listen to Xi Jinping. After all, you office workers, you great office rats, listen to Xi Jinping. The Chinese leader is right. According to the United Nations Charter, the restoration of Ukraine's sovereignty, that's it.

[00:24:06]Period.

[00:24:09]Dear audience, please like this video and write in the comments what you think about the situation as a whole, about the attack on Lithuania, about Putin's visit to China. This is very important, and of course, share your thoughts on the threats and special operation by Russia and Belarus, supposedly an invasion, which at this point is meant to stretch the forces of the armed forces of Ukraine.

[00:24:30]Renowned military analyst Roman Svetlanovich, thank you for your always professional analysis, and as usual, see you this Friday.