Markets Now Closes - 4/27 Grain, Livestock Soar on Weather & Risk on Buying: Can the Market Build on

Added: 2026-05-05

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[00:00:15]>> Welcome to Markets Now. I'm Michelle Rook with Dwayne Bussy of Bolt Marketing. Well, higher in grain and livestock futures trade for the most part on Monday and Dwayne, we don't see grain across the board very often, but it felt like a risk on day like there was a lot of fun buying in grains and even in livestock.

[00:00:31]It really did and it's one of those days that I'm happy cuz the market's all up, but I actually kind of struggled to keep finding what's the bullish story here. Why are we rallying? And when you really don't hear of a story, it probably is more just fun direction and the funds have been buying everything recently, right? You know, a little bit of wheat even. They finally bought corn back again after getting out of a lot of their longs earlier, so I think the wheat longs are out. They're back in buying even soybeans today.

[00:00:58]Really good buying which was surprising seeing how long they already are in that soybean complex. Yeah, follow up question on that one. If you combine soybean meal, soybean oil, and soybeans, the fund position is what over 470,000 contracts long. Do they keep pushing that side of the market, the funds? I guess today the answer to that is yes, they will. That's surprising though to me cuz that's like the fifth largest combined they've ever been we combine all of them, but you look today all of them were up. Soybean meal was up, soybean oil was up. Usually you see those contradict each other a little bit, right? And spreads, too.

[00:01:34]We're entering kind of a different area in soybeans where crush now and soybean oil is the strongest demand. It used to be meal was demand. Now meal's kind of the byproduct we kind of have to get rid of and that'll probably be through our export market. And and I got to admit, you know, I've been the soybean bear for a long time, but raw soybeans don't look as bad as I've said they have recently.

[00:01:54]Our export demand and our weekly export inspections report has been better than I anticipated. I still think export demand is going to have to get trimmed down a little bit by USDA, but not the 100 to 150 million bushels I was threatening before. Yeah, record crush though and higher soybean oil being pushed by crude oil. All that has been pushing the bean oil market. Today we also saw the meal market up. Was that because there was some forecast or there was some frost that was reported down in Argentina? Yeah, I think so. I think you brought that up to me and I think that's a very good point. You know, remember Argentina is still the lead exporter in soybean meal throughout the world. So if you did hurt that crop at all, it's soybean meal that should react first here. Now, I really question how much damage, you know, but it's one of those where the futures market we're going to put the premium first and then they'll ask those questions about how much production was really damaged. The reason I'm saying that is they're they're harvesting some, you know, and most US producers know like, well, if you're harvesting frost isn't going to really hurt the beans, but of course those are big countries in South America, north and south, so there's probably some late maturing soybeans that it could have dinged for sure.

[00:03:03]Right. And you said you're not bullish beans and that's because new crop if you had extra acres on there and you don't get that export demand from China, we balloon up on ending stocks quickly, don't we? Yeah, we sure can. Like I said, I'm not as bearish as I used to be, but I definitely wouldn't call myself a bull when it comes to the soybean market. Yeah, that new crop, I think we're going to add a few more acres in there yet. I really question the whole China buying even the 25 million metric ton for new crop. It's just world stocks are record high and prices are cheaper than US. I think Argentina's like a buck 20 cheaper than us. Brazil's like 60 cents cheaper than us. So it just it doesn't really make a lot of economic sense for them to come and buy from us. I mean, I get there's the whole political reasons, but that can only go so far. So you're right, Michelle. Definitely bearish and and looking at put options, different way to hedge new crop soybeans. It's early in the growing season. We can still have scares, but yeah, I'd rather be hedged up a little bit here.

[00:04:00]Corn market making some new highs for the move. The July contract had a little bit of a chart breakout here. Was it following beans and wheat or is this its own story concerning weather?

[00:04:12]No, I think corn has its own story. I think it has a story that has been bullish for quite some time, but we haven't really reacted much, you know, the the war in Iran even though I am really tired of reporting about it and Trump pulls back and forth. It's still ongoing. The strait is still closed for the most part. That means higher fertilizer, higher fuel prices for the world. To me that's a big story that corn should have rallied quite a bit more than this for the last month and we just haven't. You know, not to mention the whole, you know, will we get all the acres planted? Um North Dakota looks very cold 8 to 14 days out and I wouldn't say we're late or delayed planting. I don't think we have to rally on that just yet, but it's it's starting to raise my eyebrows a little bit to like, uh we could have an issue here. So I think corn has its own story and should continue to rally higher.

[00:04:58]Yeah, we still have those burdensome ending stocks over 2 billion bushels maybe weighing on old crop, but on the new crop we're not that far away from contract highs and that's probably where we would put that input premium if we start putting it in there or are we?

[00:05:13]No, you're right. I mean, that's where the supply could change a lot in new crop, right? World stocks are actually like at a seven or eight year low.

[00:05:23]Our export demand is phenomenal. So if we decrease acres a little bit or we don't use as much fertilizer as we should, a new crop situation could be quite tight, maybe like a 1.6 to 1.7 for an ending stock. Well, that's fairly bullish and this market should rally.

[00:05:39]You're right though, but the market doesn't really like to do that. Doesn't like to go with the new crop. Usually you end up bull spread if you cuz people just want to buy the old crop bushels instead of even worrying about the new crop supply, but you're right, it's the new crop that should put a premium in, but I doubt we'll see it. All right, but a chart breakout is a chart breakout in the July corn.

[00:05:59]Um could that also be because farmer selling might be a little slower because we're planting or not? Absolutely 100%.

[00:06:06]Nobody wants to go fire up a truck and haul any grain in right now. Everyone's trying to get the crop planted, you know, June is more of the month where, okay, let's empty bins out and that. So now farmer selling has dried up. Sadly, I can see nationwide the basis improving. Really isn't up here for us in the northern plains. We're still at wide basis up here, but you know, like you said, that's kind of part of having that big old crop and a lot of farmer supply still sitting out there.

[00:06:30]So the wheat market, some more new highs here today and of course we've been putting in weather premium in that market especially with the drought in the southern plains. How much more do you think we need to put in that market?

[00:06:43]That's a great question. I I can actually see it going up quite a bit more and that's just I feel I'm kind of laughing saying it cuz I'm like, oh my gosh, you sound like you're bullish wheat. That's that's daring to say on on live TV, but uh I I can see Kansas City obviously getting to seven yet. I can see it really on on a chart, a continuous chart pattern. I can see it going to 750, but that's if it doesn't rain. Um cuz if it doesn't rain, the market starts fighting back and forth of who can throw out the lowest yield number out there and if you start talking a national wheat yield below 42 bushels an acre, well it gets pretty tight in the US. Now sadly, Michelle, I think we could just ration export demand and just bring it all back later, but it's helping to push like Minneapolis wheat higher, which is the wheat that's growing in my area up here. I like that. I'm looking at it as an opportunity to start getting hedges in place.

[00:07:33]Yeah, in spring wheat obviously there's some concerns about getting the last acres or all of the acres planted and we already had historic low low acres, didn't we?

[00:07:42]Yeah, right. We don't have a lot of wiggle room there. We didn't start out with high acres so we can trim some off.

[00:07:48]It sounds like too from the west of me like closer to the river we've gotten a lot of the spring wheat in. So if you've been coming up, looking nice, but North Dakota, from the clients I talked to up there, not a lot of activity yet. It's just been very cold, damp soils. They just haven't gotten going, but I think we'll see that in the crop progress report this afternoon. So I mean, you know, the premium's probably justified for now.

[00:08:09]Yeah, SRW wheat gaining over HRW wheat today, but that spread HRW had really widened out compared to SRW, hadn't it?

[00:08:19]Yeah, it really had and I think seeing Chicago gain over the other complexes today is kind of go back to our original point that this is just a commodity fund buying day, a risk on type day cuz they play a lot more in Chicago than they do in Minneapolis or Kansas City. So I think that just has to do with funds just wanting to buy everything today.

[00:08:39]Okay.

[00:08:40]Let's talk about the risk on then that we saw in the cattle market. Uh we were up for a third day. Is this market trying to bottom here recover just because maybe the threat of the border reopening might be eased or what's going on?

[00:08:56]Yeah, I think so. Um you know, last week it seems like we went down down on anticipation Secretary Ross was going to speak in Arizona and then all of a sudden she just canceled that trip and you know, some guys are trying to link it back to more screw worm cases being found in Mexico. You know, maybe they're just not going to open the border now for a while. I had always heard things that the border wasn't going to be open even until July anyway and at that point it was going to be just small stages from west to east. So to me it shouldn't affect things like June fat cattle or nearby feeders, but you know, the market takes that news and runs with it and now that that meeting didn't happen, people are curious when is the border going to open? So yeah, the market I think looks strong this week. Cash could be higher, boxes are higher. We got some big holidays coming up for beef demand. I'm excited about the market for this week at least.

[00:09:46]Right. And we did hold technically where we needed to, too, didn't we? We did. We were getting to some little retracement levels that I was watching fairly close and you You this market sells off, who ask myself every time is this it or are we done? Are we going to crash back now?

[00:10:01]But, you know, for the umpteenth time in a row now, we were bouncing off the correct we corrected the overbought position. Now, the question is can we go back and test the contract highs or even make new contract highs? I guess we'll have to see here.

[00:10:15]The other shoe to drop though is when do we get in W S in the US, right?

[00:10:20]But, yeah, I know. And I've got some clients that have said, "You were worried about that last year." I'm like, "Well, I'm still worried about it."

[00:10:26]Especially as the temps get warm, I it's going to come across in something, a deer, a raccoon, something it's going to come across on. Right. Uh let's just quick talk about hogs. We were up again here today. Is the market trying to bottom, do you think? Yeah, I think so.

[00:10:42]And we're probably just playing a seasonal tendency there. We probably putting a seasonal low. Demand should be stronger here this next month. And, you know, there's still always these questions about the US production. Um sounds like there's been a lot of disease pressure. It's really hard to get confirmation on that now anymore, but I've heard some of that. Now, don't look for China to come in buying any of our pork though. I As far as global supply is very large and we're higher priced than the rest of the world.

[00:11:08]Very good. Thanks so much as always, Dwayne Busby with Bolt Marketing and Markets Now. With corn rootworm costing farmers up to a billion dollars a year, you need the right strategy. Introducing Durastac trait technology featuring three powerful modes of action to strike corn rootworm at full force. [music] Outsmart, outmaneuver, and outmatch their every move with the industry's first triple BT protein stack built for corn rootworm control. Take back your yield potential. [music] Make your move at durastac.com.

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