Isolated PM Thunderstorms Occurring Across PH…Western Pacific Remains Quiet.

[00:00:00]Hello everyone, good day to all. This is Mike Mr. Typhoon of Pagasa returning to our weather analysis. This is for today, Friday to Sunday, July 17th to 19th, 2026. English version brought to you by Typhoon 2000 and Naga College Foundation. We would also like to thank our partners, Aboitiz Power, and the local government of Naga City headed by our honorable Mayor Lenny Robredo, and our honorable Vice Mayor Gabby Bordado.

[00:00:26]So, let's begin now with our update. We don't have any tropical cyclones right now over the Western Pacific, but yesterday until this morning, we have a short duration low pressure area which intensified into a depression.

[00:00:45]And it's weakened as we speak right now, but the cloudiness and some weak circulation is still currently over this area to the south of Guam.

[00:00:59]We are going to monitor this LPA 90W, which I said it had developed into depression for the past 24 hours, but it was downgraded by Japan Meteorological Agency.

[00:01:12]JTW C is not uh not intensifying it as we speak as of this time. It's still low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.

[00:01:22]And all throughout the country right now, we are experiencing some humid and hot weather. [laughter] And low amounts of rainfall, but in the afternoon or early evening, we expect these localized thunderstorms to uh prevail in the various sections of the country, particularly over Mindanao and the Visayas as you can observe here.

[00:01:51]Well, over Luzon, it's isolated.

[00:01:56]Yesterday, there was parts of Bicol that have some thunderstorms, but today it's just a small area.

[00:02:03]And so far, that's the situation right now as we are still in this kind of El Niño climate where the amount of rainfall is uh below average right now in our region here in Bicol region.

[00:02:24]Particularly here in Naga, the amount of rainfall is somewhat low. It's less than 20 mm and it's already July 17.

[00:02:33]So, we are experiencing this kind of dry spell.

[00:02:39]Okay? So, we expect there still some thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening in the coming days to prevail in most parts or isolated parts of our country.

[00:02:50]And here's the latest from the Japan Meteorological Agency. Just like I said, they developed this LPA into a depression, but they quickly downgraded it into a remnant low, which is situated over central Micronesia.

[00:03:08]And here's the latest from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, which still the uh uh make this 19W low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. There's a subtropical depression here, 91W, which is a part frontal system or part subtropical and tropical in nature, which is moving towards the east, northeast.

[00:03:33]Okay? So, everything's quiet right now.

[00:03:36]But for the next couple of days until uh next week, there might be possible formation of tropical cyclone over the western Pacific despite as we enter as although we are entering a slightly drier phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation, but these uh smaller systems can still form.

[00:03:59]So, here's the uh latest uh uh forecast model from GFS. This is the wind model.

[00:04:07]And uh you can see here 90W, which is uh struggling to organize, and mostly the western Pacific are experiencing westerly to southwesterly wind flow.

[00:04:19]And uh if we move this into uh Saturday and Sunday, that LPA, or former depression, is likely to regenerate back into a tropical depression based on the American model becoming a tropical depression on Monday, July 20th, and uh July 21st, already a tropical storm approaching the Marianas once again. But, again, this is the American model. The uncertainty remains high, so we don't know if this forecast will push through.

[00:04:52]So far, uh if we move the forecast of more than 5 days up to 14 days, it's going haywire, but you can see the system moving towards the North Philippine Sea, accelerating towards eastern China once again. And on uh uh Sunday, July 26th, and Monday, July 27th, it will pass Okinawa based on their very low probability forecast. Again, this is highly uncertain, so forecast of more than 7 days uh is not to be concerned of. We need to uh double-check it until we enter the uh 1-7 day forecast. Okay, so for the meantime, we just observe these uh uh different kinds of uh computer models, and see what will be uh coming into reality.

[00:05:47]Now, let's take a look at the uh European model. Same situation, although it's uh quite weak, the remnant low, 90 W, and it's not expected to intensify based on the European model. Although, on Monday next week to Tuesday, July 21st, there's a uh mm counterclockwise uh circulation here, northwest of Yap, which is uh likely to become a uh shallow or weak low pressure system as it enters the uh Philippine area of responsibility. So, it's quite uh dis- elongated, disorganized.

[00:06:27]And uh this is now the forecast of more than 5 days. So, once again, the uncertainty of this forecast is high.

[00:06:34]The probability is low. So, it's not yet sure if this will push through. But, uh Friday, July 24, we have here a low pressure moving towards the Philippine Sea and the general direction of uh extreme northern Luzon or the southern islands of Japan.

[00:06:53]And uh next next weekend until July 27, Monday, we got here a tropical depression, a weak one, moving towards Taiwan, and uh slight uh enhancement of the uh southwest monsoon.

[00:07:10]And uh likely to become a tropical storm moving towards uh Taiwan. And there's [clears throat] another one here forming to the east of that system, south of Bonin Islands. And that system is uh also moving westward as a tropical storm. So, again, this forecast of uh more than uh 7 days up to 14 days remains uh uncertain, okay? And high uh very low probability.

[00:07:41]So, it's far, that's the uh forecast on the uh potential uh formation of a tropical cyclone either one, two, or three.

[00:07:51]Um but the uh probability remains low as of this time.

[00:07:56]Here's the ensemble uh forecast from ECMWF and this is now the uh LPA 90W, which is expected to move towards the uh Marianas in the coming uh 7 days.

[00:08:10]And then here's the American model showing uh that system regenerating back into a tropical depression and even a tropical uh storm. But again, probability remains low.

[00:08:24]Google DeepMind is also forecasting it on July 22 to 24, but it's uh very low uh probability yet as we speak.

[00:08:37]So, it's still uh highly uncertain if we move towards the last week of uh July. So, we will let you know when the time comes.

[00:08:49]Now, for the rain forecast, we expect every afternoon these isolated rain showers and thunderstorms for the next 5 days as we move the slider until July 21, wide swath of the Philippines will be experiencing uh will be experiencing isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms every afternoon or early evening beginning uh tomorrow until early next week. So, we are going to be experiencing this kind of situation whenever there's a uh absence of the uh southwest monsoon or on a break.

[00:09:24]But uh on uh the last uh on the fifth day of the forecast, there's a low pressure here forming and we'll see if if it will push through.

[00:09:34]And for the wave forecast, there's nothing uh going on across the Western Pacific until uh July 21st. It will be light to moderate over the East Philippine Sea, calm to light over the central waters of our country, and light to moderate up to uh 1.5 m over the West Philippine Sea because they have this slight southwest monsoon.

[00:10:01]And for the latest on the global tropics hazards outlook of the climate prediction center, this is for the next 2 to 3 weeks where in the third week is highly uncertain, low probability, while the second week is 50/50 chance of happening. So, July 22 to July 28, east of the country, west or in the vicinity of Guam up to the Philippine Sea, we are going to see more than 20% of a tropical cyclone formation, and uh more than 50% of above average rainfall for the central portions of the country. But again, it's 50/50.

[00:10:38]And on week three, which is very low probability, highly uncertain, again, the Philippines up to the western Pacific, we are continuing to see more than 20% of a tropical cyclone formation.

[00:10:54]That will be on July 29th to August 4, but again, the probability of this forecast remains very low compared to the second week, which is around 50%.

[00:11:04]In uh probability.

[00:11:07]And for the PAGASA, the latest on the tropical cyclone threat potential, for week one, which is today until next week, here's the LPA, which has been downgraded into uh I mean, it briefly became a tropical depression yesterday and downgraded into LPA, but again, it may regenerate back to a tropical depression.

[00:11:30]They have here a moderate chance of a tropical cyclone formation for week one and week two, July 23rd to 29th.

[00:11:38]Uh, that system here is the one over here, which is going to have a moderate chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. While over the uh Philippine Sea, there's another one, cyclone-like vortex. So, this is a low-pressure system which is going to be at low probability.

[00:12:02]So, changes will still occur in the coming days, so better check out the latest on the tropical cyclone potential from PAGASA, the US to PAGASA.

[00:12:13]Now, for the latest on the Madden-Julian Oscillation, we created our own weekly MJO forecast for the Philippines, 14 days. So, based on the MJO phase diagram, the Wheeler-Hendon diagram, so the Philippines is currently here.

[00:12:29]So, it's on the edge of the western Pacific. The current phase is right here, and for the next 14 days, it will remain weak. The MJO will remain weak, but it doesn't include the possibility that there will still be a tropical cyclone formation and the enhancement of [clears throat] the southwest monsoon in a smaller scale of very isolated areas. Okay?

[00:12:57]So, on the Philippines impact timeline, July 16th to 19th, we have a wet phase influencing uh the We have the wet phase influence waning.

[00:13:06]So, it's still wet phase, but it's decreasing convection. Mostly uh the rain drivers are just the disturbances, the thunderstorms, the habagat.

[00:13:21]Okay, but the enhancement of MJO in a large scale is decreasing.

[00:13:27]On July 20th to 24, it looks like it remains uncertain because it's going to be a weak MJO.

[00:13:38]But again, it doesn't matter if it's weak or strong.

[00:13:43]There will be a possible cyclone potential or tropical cyclone potential that may form.

[00:13:48]And so far, that's the forecast for July 20th on next week.

[00:13:54]July 20th to July 24. And on July 27 to uh the 30th or 25th to the 30th, we still have a low confidence of a dry phase signal. So, we don't know if a dry phase is in store or another wet phase.

[00:14:12]It's still a big question mark for the third or I mean the Yeah, the second week of the forecast.

[00:14:22]Okay. That will be a July 25th to 30th.

[00:14:25]I mean uh On the third week of the forecast, it's still a question mark if it will uh be if we will push through into the dry phase.

[00:14:39]Okay. So, so far that's the latest for today.

[00:14:43]Again, let's enjoy these summer-like conditions.

[00:14:47]But the problem here is for the farmers, we are having a hard time having some irrigating uh uh supply of water.

[00:14:58]Low supply, low irrigation means that will be a problem for for farmlands across the country as we set into the super El Niño, which set to arrive the peak super El Niño uh probably the September-October until early next year.

[00:15:19]But we'll be issuing a El Niño update.

[00:15:23]this weekend. I'm going to release a El Nino update for you to know what will be the status for our country in the coming months. Again, this is Mike Mr. Typhoon Padua.

[00:15:34]Have a great weekend ahead. Stay safe always and thank you so much for watching our channel. God bless.