How to Calculate Football Odds

Added: 2026-05-19

[00:00:00]Have you ever looked at betting odds, like Manchester City at 2.58, and thought how did they come up with that number? And more importantly, can you create your own odds and actually find value in the market? It's simpler than most people think.

[00:00:15]You start with XG, expected goals for each team, and turn that into score probabilities using the Poisson distribution.

[00:00:24]Then you combine those score lines to estimate home win, draw, and away win.

[00:00:30]But there's a catch.

[00:00:32]The basic model tends to misprice outcomes like nil-nil and one-one.

[00:00:37]That's where the Dixon-Coles adjustment comes in.

[00:00:41]It corrects those low-score distortions and gives you prices that are much closer to the real market.

[00:00:48]So with XG, Poisson, and Dixon-Coles, you can build your own odds and compare them to the exchange.

[00:00:55]Want more about this?

[00:00:57]Watch the full video on our channel.