Overconfidence bias is a cognitive error where individuals believe they are superior to others or situations, leading them to stop preparing adequately; this preparation is what ultimately keeps people alive, as demonstrated by the 1879 Isandlwana disaster where 1,329 British soldiers were slaughtered because their commander dismissed warnings of 20,000 Zulu warriors and left his camp unfortified.
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How Overconfidence Killed 1,329 Men - by myIQ追加:
1,329 soldiers slaughtered in a single afternoon because one British commander refused to believe savages could outsmart him.
January [music] 22nd, 1879, Isandlwana, South Africa.
Lord Chelmsford receives reports [music] 20,000 Zulu warriors hiding in a nearby ravine.
He laughs it off. They're uncivilized, no real threat.
He splits his army, leaves the main camp unfortified, no defensive circle, no scouts.
The Zulus attack at noon with their famous horns [music] of the buffalo formation.
British soldiers rush for ammunition, but it's locked [music] in heavy wooden crates.
They need screwdrivers, specific screwdrivers. Men face spears with empty rifles [music] and pocket knives.
By sunset, 1,329 dead.
This is overconfidence bias. When you believe you're superior, you stop preparing, and preparation is what keeps you alive.
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