UK 14 day weather: turning very warm and could 30C be reached?

追加: 2026-05-19

[00:00:05]Hi, welcome to your 14-day weather forecast. May has been a cool and changeable month to date, but a dramatic change is on the way. So, without further ado, let's see how things may be shaping up. Now, here's a picture at 18 GMT on Tuesday the 19th. And there's nothing special about this. Low pressure center to the northwest is bringing showery conditions to all areas and temperatures near to the norm. Now, as I run the sequence, what we see is high pressure starts developing and it becomes increasingly influential through the coming days. So, a good deal of dry weather develops and temperatures will be climbing fairly rapidly, but I'll come on to that a little bit later.

[00:00:52]However, into the bank holiday weekend and there are indications that thunder showers may develop as somewhat cooler air tries to return.

[00:01:03]That cooler air feeding into the north of the UK, but those showers are something to keep an eye on. There is uncertainty about the extent of the risk. But running this through to conclusion, high pressure then builds back and it's a settled picture for virtually the whole of the United Kingdom through to the end of the week.

[00:01:21]Just for chance at times that there could be a little bit of patchy rain into the northwest. Although by the end of the week, according to this computer model room, the European, the high pressure there is centered over northern Scotland. So it's settled everywhere.

[00:01:38]Here's the upper air temperature sequence using the same model run. The yellows and oranges show the warm air a loft of course with blues the cold air.

[00:01:47]As I run it, what we see is that much warmer air feeds northwards. Somewhat cooler air returns for time. But then later on as high pressure becomes dominant, it's yellows and oranges which are covering most of the United Kingdom.

[00:02:02]So a big change. Here are some of the day-to-day forecast charts from the UK V model. Here's a picture on Wednesday.

[00:02:10]Temperatures are Wednesday afternoon at about 19 or 20 in the southeast. Several degrees lower of course as you head northwards and it's still a fairly showery picture although it's tending to turn drier as the day progresses and some bright spells developing.

[00:02:28]Thursday the temperatures are now starting to climb. 21 22 23 in southern central and eastern counties of England.

[00:02:36]Maybe up to 20 21 there in eastern Scotland. 18 or 19 in Northern Ireland, but you can see there are outbreaks of rain which are clearing northeastwards through the course of the day. It's quite a changeable picture in the northern half of the UK, but it's drier and brighter in southern and central areas.

[00:02:56]By Friday, the warmth is certainly showing its hand now. temperatures reaching 27 28 degrees in England and even in Wales there into mid20s.

[00:03:09]Scotland 21 perhaps in the northeast.

[00:03:13]Northern Ireland pleasantly warm too.

[00:03:16]But it's still a more mixed picture in the northwest for some there are some showery spells of rain there, but across England and Wales it's dry with sunny periods.

[00:03:27]Saturday, the peak of the heat possibly.

[00:03:31]There are differences between the models, the European, which the sequences were based on, didn't show temperatures as high as this, because we're up to about 31 degrees according to the UKV in the Southeast and East Anglia, central counties of England, perhaps as well. Cooler as you head northwards, of course, still, but nonetheless, 2021 in Eastern Scotland and Northern Ireland, pleasantly warm.

[00:03:55]You can see as well this chance of showery rain moving southeastwards.

[00:04:00]That's associated with somewhat cooler air which I've been discussing. Whether it really makes it down into the south is open to debate. But definitely keep an eye on the short range forecasts because as well as a possibility of it being hot, there is also a chance of thunderry showers developing.

[00:04:21]Then on Sunday and bank holiday Monday, a settle picture across most areas according to the GFS at least temperatures into the mid or perhaps upper 20s in the south. In the north it it's remaining cooler but even there quite a lot of dry weather. In fact, mainly dry weather. It's just I think the northwest, so western Scotland, Northern Ireland, where things are a little bit less certain at this point.

[00:04:53]The nighttime temperatures, well, that's another big difference, a big change because we have had some chilly nights for much of May, but we're now reaching the point where the opposite is the case. This shows the forecast lows on Saturday morning, 19° in the London area. So this could be exaggerating things a little bit, but it does emphasize that we are now reaching that time where sleeping conditions start to become uncomfortable for many people at least in southern and central counties.

[00:05:26]So it is something to be aware of.

[00:05:30]And the mrep temperature trends through the first week fairly clear for London upwards.

[00:05:38]The individual runs are staying in alignment with each other. There isn't a big there aren't big gaps there between them. You can So that indicates a high degree of confidence because they're basically all showing the same thing.

[00:05:52]It's only when you reach the last few days there that they start diverging, a bigger spread developing in the ensemble, which means different outcomes are possible. But for the the key thing is that through the first four, five, six days, the temperature trend is clearly upwards. It's a similar story to a certain degree in in Manesse. They do dip a little bit there. Um just early on before climbing through several days, but the spread increases more quickly here. And I think it just highlights a little bit more uncertainty about how things will play out in the northern half of the UK.

[00:06:34]If you're heading to Europe for the bank holiday weekend, this gives an idea of temperatures on Saturday afternoon. The UK there of course London in the mid20s according to the UK according to the European which this charts generated from which is lower than the UKV as I mentioned. Nonetheless, the picture across Europe is fairly consistent.

[00:06:55]We've got hot conditions in Spain, moving up into France, maybe into England, as I've been discussing. It's warm in Germany. Some of that warmth spilling there into Poland, even into Scandinavia. Generally cooler though, as you head through the Balkans and down into Greece. So, the highest temperatures certainly focused on Western Europe at this point.

[00:07:19]rainfall. The five-day accumulations here from the European and UKV models, the highest totals in the west and especially the northwest, much lower in central and eastern counties of England, the southeast, but a fair amount of rain to come at least in the short term in the west and the north. Moving forwards to the 10day charts, the totals haven't increased a great deal. They have upped a little bit highlighting that possibility of further spells of rain at times. But all in all, a lot of dry weather is looking likely through the day five to day 10 part of the forecast period, at least according to these models. So in more general terms, what do the deterministics show as we head towards the end of the first week?

[00:08:10]This is the GFS on Tuesday the 26th.

[00:08:15]High pressure there having a good deal of influence across the UK. The Atlantic though was still a player in the north or at least the far north and the northwest.

[00:08:27]The artificial intelligence version of the GFS. The very warm air and high pressure extending further northwards than on the physics-based model. The Canadian model, very warm air, basically covering all areas.

[00:08:42]The German icon, high pressure dominant, that warm air filtering northwards. Even the northern part of Scotland seeing 850 HPA temperatures above 10 Celsius.

[00:08:56]The European high pressure building back the warmest air in the south. The artificial intelligence version of the European high pressure is dominant here, but there is cooler air in the north more than Atlantic influence perhaps in the far north unless it's a settled pattern on the whole. Finally, the UK met Office global model. Very warm air there covering much of the UK, just cooler in the far northwest, but high pressure is more or less dominant. So I think taking those all together there's a high degree of confidence that the southern half of UK will be mostly fine. There could be a few showers around but very warm as well with high pressure being dominant. In the north, it also looks like there will be a good deal of dry weather, but it's a little bit less certain, particularly in the northwest, whether it's a chance of more of an Atlantic influence remain remaining at times, which in turn would lead to the possibility of some patchy outbreaks of rain and lower temperatures. On the whole though, pretty good if you're hoping for settled conditions. Now, will the fine and warm weather continue as we head through the second week? Of course, at this range, it's just about the general trends and probabilities using the ensemble data.

[00:10:24]So, here's a 16-day GFS plot for London and the Southeast.

[00:10:30]To begin with, virtually all of the runs are well above the 30-year norm at the 800 850 HPA level. It's a big anomaly.

[00:10:40]In fact, maybe between 5 and 10° the thick black line there representing the 30-year norm. Later on, there is something of a downwards trend. The spread increases. You can see the runs going off, diverging. So, some are keeping the very warm air mass in place whilst others are bringing cooler conditions back. In terms of rain, not many spikes. Maybe a few more later on.

[00:11:09]just supports me idea that it could be turning more changeable and cooler, somewhat cooler even in the southeast as we head through the second week.

[00:11:19]Nonetheless, the message is often dry and very warm temperatures and the 2 meter temperature data tables support the general theme.

[00:11:30]early on several of the runs into the pink category which is above 30° there's a fair amount of red as well the 26 to 30s and later on maybe a downwards trend in temperatures a little bit as well down at the surface but all in all it does look like the possibility of very warm or even hot conditions and later on maybe warm rather than very warm. The nighttime values also trending downwards a little. There's some green starting to return in these columns, but it's the yellow which is dominant. So 11-5. So I think the message here for London is temperatures remaining well above the average early on. Maybe dipping a little bit later but staying above the norm. Up to Manchester, very similar trends, although the risk of rain more increases later on.

[00:12:21]Nonetheless, it doesn't look like a wash out by any means. Plenty of dry days, dry periods would be likely were this to be correct. The temperature trend to Manchester, similar to London, the values a little bit lower, especially through the nights where it does look as though it's going to be cooler. So, lots of light green there. 6 to10 more comfortable for sleeping than in the southeast. The days pleasantly warm even later on up to Glasgow.

[00:12:53]Similar across the top here on the 850 HPA temperature part of plots and the trends at least well above the average early on dipping later as the spread increases. Also I think the rain risk is varying here but it's generally higher later on. There are more spikes here towards the end of the second week than there were on the London and Manchester charts. The 2 meter temperature data tables for Glasgow oranges and yellow. So the oranges 16s to 20s. The amount of a darker orange there which is 21 to 25 is decreasing.

[00:13:31]So not bad at all for this part of the UK, but there is a downwards trend showing. And the nights significantly cooler than in the souththeast.

[00:13:42]Quite a lot of dark green still showing up. Overnight lows are between 1 and five possible on some night. So I think we're reaching a time of year when quite a lot of people in the London area would happily migrate northwards to somewhere like Glasgow for better sleeping conditions even if they might not like the rain which is sometimes associated with those cooler conditions at this time of the year. Now in more general terms how are the rain prospects looking? Here are the ECM probability charts showing the chance of five or more millimeters of rainfall in the first three days of the second week. The greatest chance is in the northwest, particularly on day three, the right hand side chart, where it's going up to about 30%.

[00:14:30]But all in all, it looks like there's going to be a lot of dry weather across the UK through these first three days of week two. Moving forwards to the next three days though and the chance of significant amounts of rain has increased marketkedly in the northwest particularly on the middle and right hand side charts you can see Northern Ireland there's some green shading and that's extending across much of Scotland the chance of these these amounts of rain though remains a lot lower in central and eastern counties of England especially the southeast so I think the Message there is it's some more changeable conditions to start developing particularly through the second half of the second week and mostly in the north.

[00:15:20]The GFSbased mean surface level pressure data table for York is suggesting that high pressure will continue to have a good deal of influence as we go through the second week. There are a couple of points worth noting though. Firstly towards the end the amount of orange in the columns decreases and some green starts returning. Green is used to indicate runs which are low pressure dominated. Hence the possibility of more changeable conditions increases particularly in the north. I think also early on, so through the first few days, what you can see is there's less orange in the columns than there is through the last few days of the first week. And that possibly is pointing towards high pressure being a little bit weaker through this period than it was earlier on, but still dominant, just not as dominant.

[00:16:14]The European artificial intelligence ensemble model shows something similar.

[00:16:18]This is also representing the pressure forecast for York the,020 mibar line there. And if we go forwards through the second week, even towards the end, a lot of the runs are keeping high pressure in charge. With that said, you can see there is a downwards trend here as well, which is quite similar to what the GFS is showing. The mean surface level pressure snapshot chart from the GEFS for Friday the 29th of May would point towards high pressure being dominant.

[00:16:51]The possibility of warm air filtering northwards. The European ensemble, the physicsbased version of it also has high pressure dominant. Some uncertainty about where it's going to be centered, but that chance of very warm air filtering northwards is also indicated here. So I think taking all that data together, there's a good suggestion that there will be a lot of dry weather going through the second week, but maybe it turns more changeable in the north later on. So to try and summarize everything, week one starts off mixed, but it quickly turns drier and much warmer. As we go into the bank holiday weekend, there is a risk of showery rain, perhaps turning thunderry for a time and temperatures may well dip in the north, perhaps in the south, too. But there is uncertainty about that. Once the showers clear away, high pressure becomes dominant. So, it's going to stay very warm. A good deal of dry weather continuing, a good deal of sunny periods. Maybe an ongoing chance of patchy rain though in the far northwest.

[00:18:02]Week two, very warm or hot periods early on, especially in the south. It could well turn more changeable later in the north. Those changeable conditions may start extending further southwards and eastwards, but of course forecast confidence at this point is very low.

[00:18:25]So there we have it. A big change is on the way. Now just before finishing, I wanted to highlight one thing, which is if you saw my update last week, you'll know that I was talking about a big change taking place through what was then the second week of a forecast period. The reason I was able to do that is because it was being indicated by the ensemble models. And I think this is a really good example actually of where the models have picked up on a signal, stuck with it as the lead time shortens, and it's turning out to be correct. It's particularly impressive in my view coming at this time of the year when the weather is often even less predictable at medium ranges in the United Kingdom.

[00:19:15]Anyway, I hope you enjoyed this video and found it useful. Then, as ever, if you did, please consider hitting the like button below and subscribing to the channel if you're not doing so already, because in that way, you'll not be missing any of my future updates. Also, don't forget to stay up to date with the day-to-day weather developments by checking out the weatheroutlook.com website. And of course on the weather outlook.com website you can view freely most of the charts which I used in these videos.

[00:19:50]Thanks very much now.

[00:19:52]Bye.