DayWeather Podcast 5.7.2026

追加: 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]Welcome to Thursday, May 7th, 2026. When you or a loved one has suffered serious harm, look to Wyoming's board certified truck accident lawyer, Grant Lawson, leading the charge for accountability and fighting for safer roads. Don't settle for anything less. Visit truck accidents.com. Well, I have to make an apology. Sounds like uh there was quite a ruckus yesterday in the Brandt household. is Jim and Tilly May there shown at the bottom of the screen. There was quite the drama as another dog showed up on their TV screen at the beginning of yesterday's podcast. So, next time I'll put a warning label before I see show a dog on the first opening page there. But, you know, this isn't the first time I've gotten a photo like this. Gotten photos of cats chasing cursors on TV screens. But, uh, great shot there. That dog in the snow. Those dogs begged to differ. Northwest flow is going to dominate the weather pattern here with two separate waves. One today, there's another wave that's coming through the region Saturday. This will lead to shower and thunderstorm activity and some gusty winds kind of some unsettled spring weather today, a break Friday, then they come back Saturday, then a nice break in the weather for Mother's Day Sunday. So, still looking at Mother's Day Sunday being a decent day. That's going to lead to some pretty warm weather. High pressure comes in and it's going to really warm up early next week. Now, we're also going to take a look at some of the new seasonal models.

[00:01:31]By the fifth of the each month, we get new data sets on monthly outlooks. And that's why at the beginning of each month, you'll tend to see on social media people posting a lot of maps.

[00:01:43]We'll take a look at May and June only.

[00:01:45]And there's some interesting things I want to show you on some of the model suites as we go through the next 60 days here. Beautiful shot there out of Bend, Oregon of lenticular clouds. Really part of the upper level winds increasing out ahead of these little northwest flow waves coming on through. One area that did very well in addition to southeastern Wyoming and the northern and eastern areas of Colorado, the eastern side of the Wind River Rivers got some ups slope with this pattern and led to some really good moisture there as you saw in the opening slide by Lander here. This is in Sinks Canyon and Harland County, Nebraska hopefully was able to get a little bit of moisture out of this system. from Nebraska is one state boy that I tell you has really had the worst luck I think of anybody in terms of precipitation. Not a fun drive during the storm overnight two nights ago along Interstate 80. It's never a fun drive on Interstate 80 around Elk Mountain, even on a good day. But boy, those trucks having a hard time climbing those high hills there around the Elk Mountain Arlington area. And the weather was uh not good for the wild turkeys as they just wandered into town yesterday getting away from all that wet snow. And how about that for another bird picture?

[00:03:03]Heavy heavy snow in the foothills of Lammer County, Colorado, west of Fort Collins. In fact, uh we'll take a look, we'll gather the data tomorrow and show you the Cocoa Raz reports for the two and three-day storm totals across the region from this recent event. They're very impressive. Impressive shot there west of Larmy. The photos here over the last couple of days have looked like mid- winter, but we didn't have photos like this in Midwinter. It took May before we could get that. But you get out of where the storm tracked and then you had a beautiful spring day like this up around Converse County in the Douglas Golf Course area. Then a beautiful shot after the storm of the sunrise in Cheyenne yesterday. How about that for classic Cirrus clouds? part of those upper level windscreasing ahead of the winds a loft that's coming in from these waves. And there it is. Here's the first wave. And we're already seeing some formation of clouds and shower activity across Montana, parts of Idaho, and northern Wyoming. And this system is headed south. This is a classic what we call a northwest flow environment where you have small disturbances coming in and moving southeast. Quick weather lesson here is when you take weather disturbances and you change latitude.

[00:04:17]You go high latitude to lower latitude, the corololis force causes the change in latitude from higher to lower latitude to cause more spinning and more vertical lift in the atmosphere when you change latitude quickly. And that's why these northwest flow systems tend to be tricky. They can sometimes produce more weather than you would expect and they don't look like much on the 500 millibar map, but they're in there and they're coming on through that dominant Hudson Bay low. This system is circulating around it. So that is system number one today. This is system number two to on Saturday. You see how today and Saturday's pattern really isn't that much different. The eastern Canadian low and waves coming in from the northwest around the flow. So you put the two together, showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the wave today. So across portions of Montana, Wyoming, and Nebraska, western Nebraska, there will be showers and thunderstorms today. And there's going to be some pretty healthy and gusty winds as well as that wave goes through. This is for Saturday. You see how they're very similar in terms of the path. Saturday's thunderstorms a bit more extensive though, as it will be a little bit warmer. Hopefully some more rain there for western Kansas and parts of western Nebraska with those scattered showers and storms. These are scattered showers and thunderstorms, meaning there'll be pockets where you don't get anything, but there will be pockets of measurable rain. And where you see the darker green and the blue here, there will be some opportunity for some heavier showers. Uh in the Black Hills, the Big Horns here around the Casper area, notice there's a little bit of enhancement here along the Pine Ridge area of east central Wyoming and northwest uh areas of Nebraska. Then areas of Montana will we'll get some measurable moisture out of this as it streaks through the rest of the west.

[00:06:07]High pressure here is going to dominate.

[00:06:10]So that's today and Saturday put together tomorrow and Sunday in between the waves and after the waves the weather looks pretty good. So if you look at temperatures, the temperature anomalies today begin to ease out further west but still a bit on the cool side east of the divide. Tomorrow, those temperatures get warmer. Where the ground's wet and where the snow's been melting, it's going to be a little bit cooler as you can see there. And then as you get into Saturday, that next wave actually brings a little shot of coolness along and east of the divide and into the Dakotas. So temperatures are going to fluctuate, bounce around a little bit in these waves going through, but the warmth here is really building.

[00:06:50]So this is the warmth that will get released Sunday into Monday. And there it is by Sunday. You can see it really warming up in the Great Basin and areas west of the divide, bringing a very spring-like pattern as that warmer temperature pattern heads east. So early next week, a lot of the inner mountain west and western high plains will see some pretty warm temperature readings.

[00:07:12]So that's what we'll see here. So what we see next week to start next week is the high in the west warming up, having some warmer weather. Now, at least for a bit, the Hudson Bay low retreats and goes back up north a little bit to the higher latitudes. That allows some room for maybe some some systems to come into the Pacific, Northwest, and Rockies.

[00:07:36]However, I have to put a big question mark on this, and this is only Tuesday of next week. The reason I'm a little suspect here is is that I've seen this before here over the last few weeks where it looks like the Hudson Bay low is done and it's going to retreat and just kind of stay up at the pole and uh kind of go away like it should as we get deeper into the month of May. But we still have this Greenland blocking pattern. So, as long as this block is here, this up here could settle back down on in. But let's say for argument sake it does go back northward and stay around for a little bit. That allows room for these Pacific systems to come in. And if that happens, well then towards the middle to the end of next week in the western parts of the US, precipitation chances go up. However, not sold on that yet. I want to see what happens up here. And we'll see that here in a minute. Now, I want to talk a little bit about El Nino again. We spent some time on it yesterday and I'm showing you this map to just say it's starting. El Nino's starting, but we're still I think a lot of people are still they got the cart before the horse a little bit still here. Over the last seven days, the sea surface temperature anomalies have actually cooled off a little bit here. Now, they certainly have warmed up here, but we're we're not looking at the big explosion of the warm water water temperatures hitting the top of the surface yet. And if you look at the SOI index, here's that big SOI, southern oscillation index drop that we saw developing at the end of March into early April. And you see how it's leveled out here, but it is starting to work its way back on down. So, we don't have that cattle prod yet to the atmosphere to really energize it. So, what I would like to see on the 7-day change map is all of this red right here. And we're just not quite there yet. So, we're still in that tugof-war.

[00:09:30]The El Nino hasn't really gotten going yet. Those northern latitude jetream winds and that Hudson Bay low are still kind of dominating the weather pattern.

[00:09:41]So that tugof-war is something that we've got to watch and watch the southern oscillation index and look at those sea surface temperature changes.

[00:09:48]Now, I wanted to go through May and June with three different model suites in terms of the seasonal forecasting because there's some clues and some hints here.

[00:09:58]I'm going to show you the European model, the Canadian model, and the CFS model. Probably the three most used long range seasonal models. What you see here in the blues and the yellows and the orange colors are where you're going to have generally speaking higher pressure, lower pressure in the blues. White means seasonal conditions. what the European model, and this is at 500 millibars or 18,000 feet. What the European model is saying for the month of May, and this is a big departure from its model a month ago, is look at the blue here. You know what that is? That's the Hudson Bay low, showing it being persistent for most of the month of May with high pressure here along the West Coast. Now, if you look ve there's very subtle features here.

[00:10:43]You see there's little kinks right here.

[00:10:46]here. What this is the model is seeing is that yeah, some systems are going to get through the high here, but not very big ones. And this looks this does not look like May at all in terms of the intensity of the low. So, the European is saying that Hudson Bay low a ain't going to budge and it could come back down again uh and maybe not completely go away. Now, the Canadian model is saying, well, not so fast. It still has a weakness, but the low pressure is more towards the continental United States and less up here. And you see how it has more of a dip. That means more systems are coming in into the Pacific coast during the month of May. The Canadian is a little bit more, let's say, nuanced in the low here in the east and it's got a little bit less in the way of high pressure and a little bit more in the way of low pressure in the west. The CFS model, the American model is wanting to join forces with the European model, just saying that that's not going away.

[00:11:45]And look at the high pressure here along the West Coast during the month of May.

[00:11:49]This is a significant departure from the seasonal models just four weeks ago. And it's all right here. And you know, I I would have to say that the European and the CFS probably are going to be more correct than the Canadian, although the Canadian may be hinting that maybe it's not for the entire month. Maybe by the last couple of weeks of May, it won't be so intact, that Hudson Bay low. But we're certainly on in uncharted waters, I think, in terms of what we're getting presented with here over the next three to four weeks with the developing El Nino and also the fact that this Hudson Bay low is so robust. So, let's go to June. And June does appear to be a month where things get really interesting.

[00:12:38]Why? Because we should see that El Nino fully kick in. And once you get into June, the longer days, the long days and the short nights up here are going to eliminate that upper level low in the Hudson Bay. It just can't it can't overcome the physics of what happens as we get into the first month of the summer season. Now, there's still some weakness there, as you can see, with some troughiness, but I want you to look at the subtle dips in the black lines here off the West Coast.

[00:13:13]You're getting a little bit of weakness and low pressure wanting to be more often there and high pressure starting to be here. You start putting the circulations together. Clockwise flow, counterclockwise flow, and you're also getting into the time of year where you naturally heat up the deserts and those warmer sea surface temperatures off the coast of Mexico here help to bring increased humidity to Mexico and bring it northward. So what we're seeing here on the European model is the weakness in pressure here, low pressure and high pressure here. So if this goes away, you throw in this troughiness all along the west coast in the southwest United States and the high here. Well, that does bring up higher humidity air into the region. And that's what the seasonal models were hinting at last month as well. And the new models show the same thing. The European and the Canadian very similar. You can see the dip in the in the lines there and the white out here meaning some higher pressure. So what we've got going on in the European, the Canadian, and also the CFS model, it's not as strong here in the CFS model, but it's a similar situation. So what that means is June could get very interesting in the western US and the plain states with increased thunderstorm showers and thunderstorms. Let's hope we desperately need them. But as we just discussed, the models changed a lot in just one month of time. That's why we're taking things not so far out, 5 to seven days at a time, baby steps with the seasonal forecast. Have yourself a good Thursday.

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