My Final Warning - The Pivot is Here

Añadido: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]in US Iran negotiations and Axio's report says Iran has given the US a new proposal.

[00:00:08]>> Bitcoin flipped bullish overnight but what most traders are ignoring is that now we are at the critical pivot point in the Bitcoin cycle. So that is what we need to discuss within today's video since we are now 212 days since the Bitcoin cycle top and usually this is the moment where Bitcoin does see a major downturn. So it is going to be critical that you are going to be prepared for exactly that scenario. We will discuss this chart and much more within today's update video. So, first of all, make sure to come over to the channel, subscribe to the channel, and then we can dive in to the most important content directly here because Bitcoin here is now 212 days into its cycle since this cycle top. And usually this is the major pivot point for Bitcoin. And it's not only about cycle timing. It is also about seasonality because indeed Bitcoin is now once again 212 days into this bare market you could say since the cycle top. But it's also in the month May or we are approaching the month May. And usually May is the downturn for the crypto market into the summer where we have slower price action aka consolidation or we just have downwards price action. And I think something similar could be playing out once again because if we look into this second chart there we can see that in 2018 for example we had one 2 3 four five green weeks before a downturn into May 2018. Now we are into April 2026. We have one, two, three, four, and potentially a fifth green month before I think there is going to be in pivoting moment into May and Bitcoin is eventually going to see a little bit more of a downturn. But as of this moment, Bitcoin is indeed bumping and we just made a 30-day high. And I think most of this was because overnight we saw the news coming out that actually Iran offered the US a new deal uh to reopen the straight of mus. The US stock market just keeps on exploding higher.

[00:02:24]But I think for the US stock market, what we could actually be seeing here is that we are going to see somewhat often buy the rumor and sell the news event.

[00:02:34]The most important thing for the markets here is a potential reopening of the straight of Ramoose. I think that we are looking into somewhat of a buy the rumor and sell the news event because if we compare it with for example the oil embargos in the 1974s and basically in the 1960s towards the 1974 years we also had some major oil shocks because some wars in the Middle East. So it's actually quite the comparable scenario we are looking into.

[00:03:02]So actually when the embar em embargo was imposed we had a major drop for the US stock market that happened again here once the straight of moose closed then we see some relief back up that could be because of news or just because the market starts to consolidate a little bit after such a large move back to the top side and actually once the embargo was lifted. So that could also be with the straight of reopening where most people and most investors will be expecting another major move higher. It will be in sell the news event and actually after the straight of moods reopens we see some downside for the US stock market. I would not be surprised and the biggest reason for me to think this could happen is that during the midterm years there's always a negative return for the US stock market. It does not matter who the president is. Does not matter which midterm year it is.

[00:03:48]There's always a negative return. The only question is going to be how big of a negative return could it be this time?

[00:03:55]You see we have these yellow bars where we have a negative return of about 8 to 10%. We also have these or orange bars where it's about 15 to 20%. And we have these red bars where it's about 34 to 35. But I think that is not going to happen probably unless there is a major black swan event. So probably we are going to look into some green or orange bars. But in the end, I think the midterm year is probably going to close negative for the US stock market because it has been doing so since 1974. And that is why I think this could be an very likely scenario. And it is something we will keep our eyes on for the US stock market. And if the US stock market is going to see some downturn, yes, then I'm quite sure Bitcoin is also going to see at best some sideways consolidation, but probably another move lower. And it would align with the exact cycle timing. It is nice to see Bitcoin pump but I don't think this extension is going to last forever. So this is definitely a major warning. Also for now the trade of mus is not even reopened yet. And if it's not even going to reopen you, we do not even have to look into possibly and buy the rumor and sell the news event because then it's definitely going to be negative for the markets if it stays closed because there are still no deal and it could still also be escalation in the US and the rank conflict maybe a little bit later.

[00:05:16]For Bitcoin, looking into the liquidation heat map, we have some interesting levels. with a major liquidation cluster from off the 80 to 81k levels and a big cluster from off 72 towards the 74k levels. I think it is possible as the funding rates maybe could flip a little bit more negative in the near future again if that's going to happen. I could see a short squeeze towards the 80 towards 82k levels. I think it's possible but it would have to happen on the near term in the next few days because I think at the beginning of May there's going to be pivots. So maybe we can see spike at the monthly opening for example later this week and we can grab the top side of gritty before we move down and we are going to hunt those downside the grid clusters again. I think that's a possible scenario. But for that, I would like to see the funding rates flip negative again because actually the funding rates have been very negative for Bitcoin over the past few weeks. And when we have this kind of negative funding and Bitcoin just keeps on pushing higher, we just have these short squeezes which keeps on bringing Bitcoin further to the top side and now the funding rates are positive.

[00:06:20]So that means trades are actually going long and that could be a signal that in the end we are going to see a little bit of a consolidation or even a push lower.

[00:06:28]So it's definitely very interesting of how the funding rates will be developing over the next few days here for Bitcoin.

[00:06:36]Then we still have this pattern in play for Bitcoin. We discussed it many times on the channel. But what we actually saw for Bitcoin here is some break of the structure where we have moved above these above this important resistance level. Now we are having somewhat of a spike within this fair value gap. And for this to repeat once again, Bitcoin could extend just a little bit higher.

[00:07:00]Like I also stated with the funding rates and on the liquidation heat map, it would make a lot of sense to extend a little bit higher, grab the top side liquidity, and then eventually move down because I think ultimately this is still a bearish continuation pattern which we're looking into because it's an bare flag and the bare market trend is down.

[00:07:18]So probably the bare flag will be playing out through to the downside once again. And now before we discuss this final Bitcoin chart, I quickly want to talk about this amazing offer by WEX as of this moment because on WEX, which is my partner exchange, you can now claim some absolutely amazing bonuses.

[00:07:35]Actually, WEX is doubling all of the deposits with a free Athereum trading position. And it's not only about deposits. You can also, for example, download the app and get an amazing coupon reward or based on your trading volume. This is one of the best campaigns I've seen over the last seven months, I would say. So, you can now claim it with the link in description on this update video. So, make sure to come and check this out. And if you're interested in starting with trading, make sure to also come over to our new Discord server because this is an completely 100% free Discord server to join. And this is something I will be very active in. also my good friend Crypto is in here and three professional other traders and much more value by the way. But we now have a public server which is completely free to join. And if you do want to start trading, you can come over to the memberships and you can actually sign up on WEX or choose a W membership. But for most people that just want to start trading and just want to start learning, the most popular and the best option is going to be your React sign up because then you simply have to do deposit on your account. you can just start trading and you will get access to the VIP community where we have a lot of great trading setups, a lot of value and much much more. So also that link you can find in description under today's video. Then diving back into Bitcoin on the very short term here. I think that extension is most likely going to happen. Then it will probably extend towards the 82k level in your best best case scenario, but I do not see it happening honestly. We could maybe move toward 86K level, but I think that's a very optimistic level. It could happen, but that's definitely going to be a local top for Bitcoin before we have a new continuation lower. And I think it's more likely that extension is going to last towards the 81 to 82K level. Looking into the cycle timing, looking into the historical fractals, it does not make a lot of sense for Bitcoin to extend much higher here because I personally believe we are trading in a bare market. And that is why I will be playing with the rules of a bare market itself. We are on a downtrend and there is going to be reversal in the near future. I would say that was it for today's video. In conclusion here, we are looking into some very bearish Bitcoin patterns. Actually cycle timing.

[00:09:50]It makes a lot of sense to see some downside or just sideways consolidation at best. The straight of moose is still not open yet, but this week we are probably going to see a lot of new developments regarding a potential US deal. That's something we must keep our eyes on.