Heatwave Pattern to Potentially Develop into Early May? 21st April 2026

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Welcome everyone, back to weekly weather updates. And in today's video, we have the latest from the live radar from the latest UKV outlook of precipitation and the temperature over the next 5 days. We are actually going to see some very dry and actually pretty warm conditions over the coming days. Big diurnal range, so we'll see warm by day, towards 20° by the end of the week, but also by night, being pretty cold with some areas even seeing a bit of frost with temperatures, you know, deviating by around 20° between the early morning and the mid-afternoon.

[00:00:32]Generally speaking, high pressure is going to dominate the next week or so and potentially even longer term, but we are seeing a little bit of a signal from the runs for that high pressure to be slightly displaced, allowing a bit of a cut-off low to develop to our south and out west. If that does develop, then it could turn very unsettled by the end of the month, but equally, we could actually see some very warm conditions developing if we do see a bit of a southerly flow. The ECMWF is flirting with that idea today. So, do remember if you enjoy my videos, do like and subscribe. Now, if you start on the live radar, pretty decent conditions through this evening, lots of sunshine.

[00:01:07]Going to zoom in a little bit later on about 9:30 and you can see that it is a dry evening. A few bits and bobs of rain out to the far west, but really not too much going on. If you look at the temperatures, you can see it is turning chilly, especially in the north closest to the center of the high. Again, could see some frosts in places. Again, not too unusual for the time of year, but we are getting to that stage when those frosts will become few and far between and we'll need a cold cold air mass.

[00:01:31]Whereas at the moment, we've got relatively mild air mass. It's just because of the bit of an inversion taking place overnight. Now, if you look at that UKV, you can see very little going on over the next 5 days. We can go through this relatively quickly as we're not going to see much precipitation or even cloud really. There's going to be some high-level cloud in places, but really not too much going on at all. And you can see as we head through Thursday and even into Friday, Saturday and Sunday, lots of sunshine. Yes, some lower cloud around with the high pressure system straight over the top of us. It's going to be pretty pleasant. Really not much going on. Temperatures, yes, not going to be exceptional. They're going to be warm, 20 to 22° perhaps in places just because the air mass is going to be slightly above average, but nothing too spectacular. If of course it was well above average, then yeah, it could be very warm, but unfortunately not seeing that here. If you look at those upper air temperatures, you can see they are hovering a couple of degrees above average generally speaking into the latter portion of this week. A little bit chilly at the moment, but you can see they are around the mid-single digits by the end of this week, maybe just about touching 10°, which is warm.

[00:02:35]Again, could produce low 20s if we are lucky. If you look at those max temperatures at the surface, you can see as we head into Wednesday, a little bit chilly in the morning, perhaps with some isolated frosts around 5:00 6:00 a.m.

[00:02:48]And you can see as we head into the afternoon, temperatures will rise pretty moderately around 15 to 18°, so nothing too spectacular, but decent indeed. As we head through into Thursday, again, a bit of a chilly start, temperatures dropping down to 1 or 2° again, some frosts in places, so pretty chilly, but if we head into the afternoon, look at this, 17 to 20°, so you're even getting a few degrees higher, so looking pretty pleasant there.

[00:03:15]Into Friday, another pleasant day, a cold start again, some frost quite widely in rural areas, but by the afternoon, temperatures rising rapidly once again, widely 17 to as high as 19°, just touching or knocking on the door of 20°. Into Saturday, again, frosts in some isolated spots in countryside and you can see into the afternoon, even higher, more widely 19 to 21°.

[00:03:43]And you can see into Sunday as well, a chilly start, temperatures once again into the afternoon around that 19 to 21° mark. So, yes, nothing exceptional, no high 20s or even mid-20s, but just touching that 20 21° barrier. It is going to be very pleasant over the next 5 days or so. Biggest thing going to be the blue skies and sunshine. A little bit chilly early on, you know, only mid-teens, but by the end of the week, high teens or low 20s, it is going to be spectacular, so please do go out and enjoy it.

[00:04:11]If you look at the long-range charts, you can see the high pressure involved at the moment. It's going to be sat over the top of us for much of this week and that's why it is warm and dry. Not really much of a southerly or southwesterly flow and that's why it's not going to be anything too exceptionally warm, but it's going to be pleasant and dry.

[00:04:26]Longer term, later on next week in the final few days of the month, we do see the high pressure again pushed away and to start May, you can see high low pressure replaces it sat over the top of us, maybe pushing to our south. If it pushes to our south, it could pull up a southerly flow, a bit of a southerly plume, thunderstorm type pattern there into May, but here it's more just trapped over the top of us, so it's probably it would just be generally unsettled and relatively chilly with the upper air temperatures dropping to well below average by this point. If you pull on the temperature deviation, lots of blues developing. So, although very pleasant out to day 7, beyond that, you see blues get involved and lots of low pressure, so a bit of a run of two halves. So, the first half, very pleasant, the second half, not so much. If you look at the GM, you can see again, lots of high pressure involved.

[00:05:12]Again, you can see it's sat right over the top of us for much of this week and then longer range, still high pressure in control. That low looks like it's not really developing any of that energy. It's either Eastern Europe down towards the Azores and we're actually seeing a bit of an easterly flow. Pretty dry, yes, maybe slightly colder with that easterly wind, but it is dry, it is pleasant and probably will be pretty decent indeed.

[00:05:38]And finally, we look at the ECMWF, which is slightly different long term. Again, high pressure largely involved, a bit of a southerly wind trying to develop, but really not too much going on. You can see again, maybe an easterly flow with a chance to develop and as I said, that low sinks to our south into early May. A bit of a cut-off low, colder and unsettled initially with a northeasterly wind, but then look what happens. This low develops to our south and it tries to pull up a southerly wind. And although yes, this run gets cut off at 360 hours, this could produce a pretty intense southerly plume. Again, we're not talking uh we're not we know we're not talking about, you know, mid-30s or anything ridiculous like that, but maybe high 20s, maybe touching 30° if we're lucky there into May. So, we'll have to see exactly what does happen, but yeah, looking like it is going to be a very interesting next couple of weeks.

[00:06:29]Very dry and initially relatively warm, maybe turning more cold and unsettled, but that also also opens the door to this sort of warmer, hotter plume pattern from the south. We'll have to wait and see. If you finish off looking at the ensembles, you can see a little bit chilly at the moment, but above average for the rest of this week all the way through to the rest of April and pretty bone dry. So, yes, the next kind of 8 or 9 days is looking exceptional.

[00:06:51]Not ridiculous, no ridiculous heat.

[00:06:53]We're going to be about 5° above average at times, but just generally dry and warm. Longer term still looks relatively warm into the first few days of May.

[00:07:02]Precipitation does touch pick up a tad, but it's just generally uncertainty.

[00:07:08]Some cooler runs, some warmer runs, maybe a bit more precipitation. Still so still lots to play for there into May.

[00:07:14]But we saw the kind of scenarios that are at play, either high pressure stays around, maybe changing wind direction, maybe we see low pressure sat right at the top of us and maybe even we can see if low pressure is right down to our southwest. And if that does occur, then that would be again, a bit of a warmer plume. So, again, we'll we keep a very close eye on that. If you finish looking at the ECMWF, it's very similar, very mild and warm at the moment. You can see into early May, it starts dry, but does turn colder, which again indicates to me that we could see a bit more of a chillier pattern developing, so that high maybe pushing north further northwards and maybe eastwards. So, yes, we'll have to wait and see what happens with that, but at this stage, yeah, it is a bit of uncertainty longer term.

[00:08:01]The short term though is looking pleasant, warm and dry, but with some colder nights. So, yeah, we'll keep a very close eye on what goes on. We'll keep you updated of course over the coming days. So, thanks for watching.

[00:08:12]Hope you enjoyed it. Subscribe if you're new and I'll see you again for another video soon.