APC Primaries - Why President Tinubu Lost Southwest..

追加: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]results from the APC presidential primaries, uh which many people are saying look more like a dress rehearsal for the 2027 election and a mock election in essence. I decided to take a look at some of the numbers and break them down because we saw some interesting trends uh based on those uh those results that have been reported.

[00:00:20]Uh if we take a look at the numbers, uh what sticks out most is that there are several areas where there are several wins and several losses. Let's start with the big losses, which are in the Southwest states. Now, this came as a huge shock because of course we all know the Southwest to be President Tinubu's stronghold. That's his core base. But if you look at the states of Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, there was uh and if you add it with Ekiti as well, the president lost almost 900,000 votes in these areas. The only state in the Southwest that added was Lagos State, which of course moved from 572,606 in the 2023 general uh presidential election and this internal election gave him 849,988.

[00:01:05]So that's a difference of over 240,000.

[00:01:07]Now, of course we do make the disclaimer that this is an internal APC vote. It's restricted to APC members. However, it's instructive. These numbers do serve as somewhat of a flag as to what we can expect in the coming months as of course the election is coming very close. Where are the biggest winners though? If we see that almost a million was lost in the Southwest, where did the gains come from? Imo State, Enugu, Adamawa were the three states that delivered the highest increase in votes for President Bola Tinubu compared to the 2023 election. We go to Imo State uh where we see the final polling number uh coming up to 582,960 votes. Uh this is internal for APC.

[00:01:53]That's over half a million new votes.

[00:01:55]Enugu State came second, adding over 378,000 for the president. Adamawa State came third, 460,000 coming in. Now, let's go to the map quickly because of course we don't have a lot of time. We'll go to a map that a map that sort of breaks this all down.

[00:02:11]As I said, we see Southwest is red.

[00:02:14]Niger State, Cross River also lost a number of states. If we go to the north, we see that there's a mix between Northeast and Northwest where several votes have been lost. Jigawa lost 200,000, Bauchi 160, Katsina also lost a number of votes.

[00:02:30]Katsina lost 15,000 votes. Kebbi added about 40,000 votes. However, Kaduna was the shining star there, delivering over 200,000 votes and Gombe also delivering over 300,000 votes. Now, in essence, what does this tell us? It tells us that some of the places that we've known to be the president's strongholds and core followership, for this internal election where we would have thought there would have been a strong showing from his core base, unfortunately we are seeing the numbers in the red. However, we are seeing gains in the Southeast, specifically Imo State and Enugu State, which are areas that traditionally we wouldn't have seen this type of outing for APC, especially in comparison to what we saw in the 2023 elections where if you compare the numbers with the candidate for the Labour Party at the time, Peter Obi, these numbers are comparable to what Peter Obi would have received in 2023.

[00:03:27]Now, let's look at some of the states that have made huge promises for the president. Akwa Ibom, in Akwa Ibom, where did we find Akwa Ibom?

[00:03:36]Over 200,000 votes added in comparison to 2023. So, the Senate President Godswill Akpabio was able to deliver on his commitment that as far as the South South is concerned, he said he'll give the president the highest number of votes. Edo State, Edo State actually lost 20,000 votes.

[00:03:54]And Edo state was able to pull a total of 120,000 votes. We wonder where Governor Monday Okpebholo will get the 2 million votes that he promised President Tinubu. And as I round up, I think I'll round up with a couple of the states that defected. Delta state, of course, being one of those that sticks out, added 300,000 to President Bola Tinubu, which shows that that defection, defecting with the structures, has made a significant impact on his core followership. Of course, I end with a disclaimer that this is restricted to APC members. This is a primary election.

[00:04:31]It's an open ballot as well. However, the numbers are indicative of possibly what we can expect in 2027. All right, I hand over to the floor to you, Rufai.

[00:04:41]Okay. I mean, so very interesting analysis by as regards the numbers, but I'm sorry, I'm sorry, with due respect, I don't take these numbers seriously because >> [laughter] >> this 10 million bucks or passing events, I mean, these are their I mean, there was there was no there was no proper vetting mechanism. I mean, there's no there's no peer review. There's no center arbitrage to be able to vet the number. Is it the same primaries that people were doing that they were counting 1, 3, 50, 100, 200? No, now. I mean, So, yes, it shows sort of like a dynamic within the political party, you know. I would like to see uh first, even what what's the parameter of the verified register as was submitted to INEC. Let's see how much people are in the verified register there.

[00:05:32]I mean, these numbers for me just pretends that in the areas where he did very well, there were [snorts] people that just And I'll give you an instance, Imo for instance. I mean, we all know that Uzodimma uh is a strong factor. He wants to go to Senate. probably he too might be in the race for Senate presidency at some point. So, the numbers are high.

[00:05:52]Definitely the guys from the Southeast, definitely the Southeast will give him big numbers because they there's always been this scrutiny results is that the Southeast is never will never vote for him or they never delivered vote for him in the last election. So, they want to prove they are with him. Obviously Lagos, I mean I'm not surprised that Lagos delivered over 100,000 because the president was still scarred from losing Lagos in the last election.

[00:06:14]So, I mean I mean I'm not surprised that that that is happening. So, I'm I'm going to take these numbers with a pinch of salt. And the other person that run alongside him was Sefu. I mean yeah, the other Mr. Babajide was praising Sefu.

[00:06:28]And I was just laughing. I mean what's the political metal of Sefu? I mean let's be realistic. And this was a fair complete race. I mean you you want to compare this to a race like the 2015 APC primaries that had the big hitters, you know, the Kwankwasos of this world and you know, the Buharis of this world. I mean this is this is just their internal thing. But for me there are some surprising ones. I mean I would have thought that this would have been the time where people like Governor Peter Obi would have shown that that 2.5 million votes is a reality. But I think he got 121,000, you know, votes for him. So, that that that's that about that. I quickly want to piggyback on a couple of things happening.

[00:07:05]Interesting dynamics and congratulations to the new president of Benin Republic even if I feel that those results are very suspect because let's not endorse what is not good. We all know what Talon did.

[00:07:18]Suppression of the opposition.

[00:07:20]The man in the end got about how many percent of the votes over 90% of the votes cast. This was his anointed successor.

[00:07:27]We'll speak the truth at all times. But the what I hear is also done something very interesting.

[00:07:34]In the space of one day he has named the cabinet subject to approval by the laws of the land. But he has named the cabinet. I mean it shows seriousness on his part.

[00:07:41]So, but let's not also forget that opposition was highly suppressed. It gave the likes of Wade and easy run because I mean, yeah, and also the conversation around the coup was another, you know, very big problem in all of this.

[00:07:55]But in Senegal, it just shows how the cookie crumbles.

[00:07:59]Diomaye is Sonko. Originally, yes, Sonko had the mandate of the people.

[00:08:05]But because of the laws of the land, he couldn't participate in the election, so he brought in Diomaye as a placeholder.

[00:08:10]And a political godson.

[00:08:12]Diomaye starts a fight with starts a fight over a lot of things. I mean, IMF bailouts, debt, and things like that, and all of that. While this fight heats up, ideologically, they disagree.

[00:08:22]Then the next thing, Diomaye removes Sonko as prime minister as prime minister.

[00:08:27]After he removed Sonko, Sonko says, "Oh, I still own the PASTEF." Diomaye was trying to be able to consolidate of the PASTEF party.

[00:08:34]But Sonko goes at the back and says, "You know what? I will show you what I am."

[00:08:40]Then the the head of the speaker of the house resigns.

[00:08:45]Sonko is finally able to get into the house so that he will be made speaker.

[00:08:49]The elections will be held 29th May, and once that happens, then he will be that buffer against Diomaye.

[00:08:57]So members of the opposition that were against Diomaye before are now supporting Diomaye against Sonko. So it's a free-for-all fight amongst these two people. And it just saddens my heart that these were the same two people that the Senegalese people thought that they were going to change the order of things and all of that. But but it's just sad how politics And the sad developments, Katikou has now declared himself presidential candidate. ADC, a lot of fight back and forth in the mode. I mean, politics is taking a pier.

[00:09:25]Okay, [clears throat] where should I start from? Let me start with the APC presidential primaries. And we focus on the APC presidential primaries because APC is the ruling party. Because the ADC, the African Democratic Party, they also having, you know, their own you know, congresses and selection of candidates and all of that. But the APC, yes, I think we should get to a point in this country where we should start the Tinubu School of Politics and Strategy.

[00:09:59]Because what President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has done over the weekend is to show that he's the owner of the game.

[00:10:07]What the APC has done, basically, particularly with the presidential primaries, is to show that, "Okay, the president has been given 11 million votes."

[00:10:18]Okay, if he already has 11 million votes from the party and the challenger, one guy called Stanley Osuofo, whom the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives said in Abia State, said, "Now they waka come."

[00:10:37]Now they waka come, truly.

[00:10:39]>> [laughter] >> He got 1,000 plus votes to Tinubu's 11 million votes. Just to show that, "Look, I'm the owner of this game."

[00:10:49]At the end of the day, what would the opposition politicians get? Whether it's Dumeebi, Kachikwu, or it is Atiku that emerges today, or whoever emerges in any of the other political parties that are trying to show that they are present on the register.

[00:11:09]So, already, President Tinubu has presented you with a demonstration effect, with a fait accompli.

[00:11:18]If his party can give him 11 million votes, then the opposition will need to get maths that you have seen over the weekend in the last few days to even count 1 2 3, basic arithmetics which you start primary school with, was a problem for that particular political party. So, that strategy, very smart, very clever, smart alec, some people would say.

[00:11:44]But the map that you showed us during politics within by Muslim classy That's a new show. You can save the segment and hashtag and run with it.

[00:11:57]Yes, hashtag. You know, is that President Tinubu lost in the Southwest?

[00:12:03]In other words, you know, he did better in other parts of the country. What does that tell us about political culture?

[00:12:12]Does it tell us, for example, that the Southwest is a is a zone of traitors?

[00:12:20]Zone of traitors.

[00:12:23]Yes, because when you talk about politics in Nigeria, they will say, "Oh, you are very strong in your area where you came from." They did it to Awolowo.

[00:12:34]They did it to President Obasanjo. Now, is that an indication, even within the party, that the people that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will rely on most are the ones that are most treacherous? Why would he get more votes from Northeast, from Northwest, from is it North Central that I saw on that map? And his own people will not give him most of the votes. But over the weekend, they all turned out, whether in what in Ikoyi or in other parts of Yorubaland. That should also be some kind of awakening for him. But on a general basis, the president has shown that, okay, he has his strategy. If his party has already given him 11 million votes, then, of course, who is How many people are even on the INEC voters' register?

[00:13:28]So, but beyond all of that, we also saw that there were protests, there were disagreements arising from the choice of consensus and direct primaries in other places. But the big issue for all the political parties will seem to be the ruling of Justice Muhammad Umar in the matter between Youth Party and INEC relating to section 29 sub one in relation to deadlines and membership registration. INEC before now had said that, "Okay, by May 10, May 10, I think, you know, if you have not moved from one party to the other, you cannot move again." But by the effect of the ruling of Justice Muhammad Umar, he was saying that, "No, a substantial superior constitutional, you know, provision cannot be subdued or distracted from or sabotaged by subsidiary legislation. And that INEC's regulation or guideline cannot override the Constitution."

[00:14:37]And his lordship also quoted section 94, section 84 sub one, and section 31, section 32 of the the uh you know, the electoral act. So, that's a major issue. So, now the people who lost out either in the APC process or in the ADC process, they now have till September 21, I think, 2026 to move to other political parties. So, what happens to all these events that have been held over the weekend, particularly now today that the ADC is going to choose his own candidate? The other issue I would like to talk about very briefly, if there's time. If there's no time, I will keep quiet. It's Senegal.

[00:15:25]Where you have a conflict between a godfather and a godson.

[00:15:30]It was uh Sonko who was supposed to be president, but he was uh detained, imprisoned as a result of uh uh defamation allegation. And that was why Diomaye Faye was brought. And they were saying, "Faye is Sonko. Sonko is Faye." On the platform of Pastef.

[00:15:52]And now down the line, they started quarreling.

[00:15:57]Over What is it now? IMF loan about a 132% uh public debt to GDP in Senegal. So, Sonko disagreeing with Faye.

[00:16:10]So, this is not just about politics in Senegal. It is also about the economy, the well-being of Senegal.

[00:16:20]But, in Nigeria, we can interpret it godfather, godson uh are fighting. IMF debt is about 1.8 billion dollars.

[00:16:30]But, why is it that in Africa, we cannot work together?

[00:16:34]The only country where anybody is working together is maybe Morocco because they have a monarchy there. In every other country, opposition, uh godfather, godson, they are perpetually fighting. I think it's part of the uh conversation that we have to uh worry about. Now, the the parliament in Senegal is against uh Faye because the speaker now wants to step down to allow >> He has resigned already. To allow Yes, to allow Sonko to come to parliament and become the speaker of parliament. The future of Senegal is something we have to worry about. And it's African.

[00:17:14]Mhm.

[00:17:15]Well, for me, I don't really have much to say.

[00:17:18]Of course, we have seen the primaries where we saw all that happened ranging from the House of Reps to senatorial in our positions and then the presidential positions. Of course, we saw the miscounting skipping numbers and all of that. So, we saw how you know, APC primaries went and a lot of persons will still come out to say that it was free and it was fair.

[00:17:40]We are many there are many you know, people who are grumbling we are who are not satisfied with the process and all of that. Some persons name were erased, some persons name were taken to you [snorts] know, I see somebody who applied for a governorship and then the name was taken to a senatorial was given a senatorial this thing and then at the end of the day the person lost out. I can't imagine such mistakes, you know, and for APC to manage, you know, this little elections within them and then we are seeing some of all these irregularities. Now, this goes to show what's really going to happen in [snorts] the bigger space of you know, the bigger election the regular elections and I just hope that Nigerians are prepared to see the unexpected and what's really is going to happen. I think I love what will fight said here too and then let's talk about the lost in the Southwest. Well, we saw what's going on. We really see that pretending to be could actually be considerable I know is a very strategic man. It could be a by way of the deceptions to you know, convince [snorts] or confuse the people. At the main election, what you will see might really shock you. So, this can actually be a game play like Dr. Abati rightly said that these people did not give him. I don't really believe so much in that.

[00:19:06]Yes, of course, he must have gotten a high number in it could be an electoral strategy, you know, to everybody have their plans. APC have their strategy. They have, you know, what they planned and what they intend to do. Uh like if I said also, we don't know where those numbers were coming from. But to me, seeing that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu lost in the Southwest, I think totally it's a strategic move. You know, position. And [snorts] now we see we saw that he also won in the Lagos State, uh you know, uh in Lagos State. That's also is a significant, uh you know, point, you know, to think [snorts] about, something to think about. You know, because they on the last election, the general election, he lost Lagos State. And now this point point in time is winning Lagos State, you know, massively. And uh it really goes to show you some certain things. And then if you look at the north, where we are thinking that, okay, the northerners are against him and all of that, he might not do well. They That was where he did very, very well. Of course, in those areas. So, uh to me, it's a strategic move.