Flash flooding risk is determined by the location and intensity of thunderstorm bands, with inland areas facing greater danger than coastal regions when heavy rainfall accumulates in specific corridors; meteorologists assess risk by analyzing rainfall totals, storm band movement patterns, and geographic vulnerability to provide timely warnings and safety guidance.
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STORMtracker ALERT DAY: Additional downpours expected through midnight
Added:I'm meteorologist Nicholas Sherbosso with an evening update on our flash flooding and weather situation and we're all what we're looking at into tonight into our Friday as well. The situation as of 6:30 7:00 this evening is a strong band of thunderstorms now over George County and Greene County in Mississippi spreading into Mobile County. This is the onset of a secondary band that seems to be developing across the area. This is going to be the focus zone as we go through the evening of heavy rainfall that could lead to more flash flooding.
Where this band sets up is key because it'll determine where we have the flash flooding. If you are near the immediate coast, it has been quiet for most of the day today and I think it will remain quiet into the overnight period. Right now that as of 6:30 and 7:00 the heaviest rain is right here across George and Greene County, but I think northern Mobile and Baldwin counties as well as southern Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Escambia County in Florida, northern Escambia or scam northern Escambia County in Florida, Escambia County in Alabama, northern Santa Rosa County, northern Okaloosa County, those will be some of our locations that we have to watch for if this band continues to be an issue. Rainfall has been tremendous over the past 12 hours.
You can see the streak of yellow here.
That is where some of the heaviest rain fell earlier today, but now we have seen a area of increased rainfall totals due to orange color that's above 4 inches and then in the yellowish color that's around 6 inches plus. So, what we're seeing is this corridor that has already had a ton of rain, it looks like another band is setting up and could dump more rain as we head into the evening. So, this is a current concerning situation because we could see more flash flooding. We could see our forecast models really getting aggressive with a band that's north of Interstate 10, south of the Highway 84 corridor where we could see heavy rain. Again, if you're at the immediate coast, especially at the beaches in northwest Florida, it seems like a lower rainfall threat for you tonight. So, we have a flood watch that continues for our area.
This is a particularly dangerous situation. The National Weather Service highlighting that somewhere in this flood watch area, we could see some significant rainfall that could lead to more flash flooding. This also has a high risk of flash flooding through tonight for our area and even tomorrow we could be looking at moderate to high risk of flash flooding for our inland areas. So, this is going to be a time period we have to watch these thunderstorms, where they form and where they are because they could dump excessive amount of rain that could lead to some life-threatening flash flooding.
Severe weather risk not as much of a concern as we go through the overnight period tonight. Slight risk of severe weather does continue with a low low low low low end tornado threat, but also damaging wind threat with some of these storms. And tomorrow, some some thunderstorms could be gusty winds, but severe weather not be as much of a concern. Here is your futurecast. This is what you've been waiting on. Let's go ahead and take a close look at what's happening. This is 6:30 p.m. That band of thunderstorms sets up but notice how it back builds. It just sets up as a band north of Interstate 10. It doesn't go anywhere. And that's going to be the deal as we go through the overnight period. Here's midnight where we keep rain falling across this region. It's not a great situation. We get a break around 3:00 4:00 a.m. across the area before more scattered showers and thunderstorms develop tomorrow. And tomorrow's rainfall will be pretty widespread, but it will not be these heavy bands that sets up. It may be a little bit more of a thunderstorm here, thunderstorm there, summertime kind of feel to things. But any of those thunderstorms that develop could add to the rainfall totals that we have already had so far on our Thursday.
Now, Friday you have those numerous thunderstorms. On Saturday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible there that could add to the rainfall totals, but it should be more of a typical summertime day. One other note for you, a high surf advisory down the coast. Do not get in the water. This surf has been deadly. And we We not need any more uh issues like we have seen so far down at the beach. So, do not get in the water.
Dangerous surf down at the local beaches. Here is your 7-day outlook.
High chance of rain on Friday. Lower it for Saturday and Sunday. Saturday and Sunday looks to be typical summertime weather. Then, temperatures go up as we head into next week with isolated and scattered showers and thunderstorms to high temperatures in the 90s. There's so could be a hot week ahead. We will be live streaming occasionally throughout the night as we deal with this flash flooding situation across our area. Be sure to stay with us on Fox 10 for all of your updates. We are here to keep you safe and we will be keeping you updated.
Be sure to follow our social media pages social media pages and be sure to download the Fox 10 weather app for the latest updates.
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