Massive Bitcoin Move INCOMING

[00:00:01]We are live. It is Monday morning and Bitcoin volatility index is putting out a signal that has a lot of Bitcoin holders terrified of another major move to the downside. We have some sailor news coming out again with no purchases of Bitcoin but making moves within the stock of strategy that's got people very wary and some of the top revenue makers in the altcoin sector highlighted on the show today. I'm joined by the one and only TJ uh back from the AI realm here. How you doing, man? How's your >> I'm doing good. Happy to be here. And it's funny, I saw KJM, we were literally talking about this right before I hit the bomb. I'm like, ah, we still haven't made a new intro and we're like, ah, you know, we got a lot of other things on the priority list and this is one of them, but it's just not as far up. Uh part of what we're working on right now is getting some of these AI tools ready for our school community. Uh we've which a by the way has been awesome. The people in there are amazing. Being able to connect with people, talk about their goals, getting to know people on a more personal level. This guy posted, you know, he's got this thoroughbred horse and stuff. I was like, it's just >> so much cooler to have a more connected relationship with our audience. I know some of you guys who watch this every day are in there and we really really appreciate you guys. Uh if you haven't hopped in there yet, no, no harm, no foul. It's it's not for everybody, but uh the people in there are going to make it, that's for sure. We've made insane strides with people on their goals and understanding crypto, how to research it, kind of teaching our whole framework of everything we go through to determine if something's good or not good. Uh, and part of the next step once people get the fundamentals down is we want to be sharing the AI tools that we use. And we're pretty close with rolling those out within the community. We've demoed them a few times, but uh part of what you're going to get in that school community is everybody who's a part of it will have access to our in-house tools that we use for researching altcoins, for researching DeFi, you know, just market news in general, just kind of staying up to date. So, if you're one of those people that doesn't have time to eat, sleep, and breathe this stuff like we do, uh that's what we're making it for. There's a lot of people that have sizable portfolios and they're very invested in crypto, but they run another business or they have another job and they can't do it all day every day. So, we're taking everything we do and putting it into an AI framework where you can just ask the AI, pull from our knowledge base, pull from our research resources. Uh, and it's working pretty well so far. So, yeah, we're excited. Uh, and this guy says it's the place to be.

[00:02:30]>> Uh, there >> Yeah. And somebody's asking what you get with the subscription. I kind of just detailed it. Some of it's the AI stuff, but you really you're going to get I mean, we have a whole course on how to find good altcoins, when to take profits, all sorts of, you know, it's really helps you analyze your portfolio and do your whole framework kind of through the same framework that I run mine through as far as uh growth, you know, buckets for your portfolio, understanding your risk, you know, there's a lot of training, but then also you're going to get the AI tool as well.

[00:03:00]So, a lot of lot of really powerful stuff in there. But, you know, I I just wanted to say, oh yeah, you've got it pulled up right there. Yeah, that's what we're talking about next is how to use AI for crypto research because that's what we've been doing a lot this year.

[00:03:11]Uh Kelly, you know, he's obviously done a lot in Bitcoin. All of us have been in there for a long time, but he's been eat, sleep, breathing. Uh anything you can think of. So, if you know of cryp if you know anything about AI, we've we're probably right there with you. I'm playing with every model, every harness, every subscription you can think of. Uh so, and it's just a lot of fun. You just get better access to us. We can actually DM you in there. That's what I love is it's scammer free. It's a safe place for us to really ask questions about people's portfolios and give answers, share stuff that we're doing. Um yeah, it's just it's just good vibes. It's nice to hang out with uh good people that aren't just raging at the world.

[00:03:50]And no offense to, you know, the YouTube masses, but you YouTube masses and Discord masses, there's a lot >> I mean offense. I mean offense to that.

[00:03:59]That such a terrible place to live. like just constant doom scrolling.

[00:04:03]>> Um, you know, so yes, we have this call coming up Wednesday, 2 p.m. And like GJ said, there's a lot of AI tools that we're getting ready to roll out. I'm not going to give you a time frame, but it's coming up pretty quick. Uh, because I know there's a lot of people that need this. Um, and really, you know, having this kind of tool is super important because you're going to come across headlines exactly like this, like this kind of type. I don't know if this is a typo or this is what they're meaning to do. Volmageddon. Bitcoin Volmageddon is now what's being discussed may be brewing. Key indicators suggested from Coin Desk this morning. Now, this is based on volatility surge that is often accompanied by price declines. The Volulmageddon, a cautionary outlook that is based on behavior of Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index, the BVIV.

[00:04:52]Frequently viewed as crypto's equivalent to Wall Street's VIX. The gauge is influenced by demand for options and the derivative contracts traders use to protect their portfolios from sudden market swings. Now, this is something I'm actually going to bring up the longerterm chart on, but generally the higher demand for these contracts, the higher the implied volatility and vice versa. Now, this index does go both ways, but for now, the this metric is hovering around a 34 to 38% range. I do believe we had the highlight here. This is Bitcoin price in blue overlaid by this metric, the Bitcoin volatility in the candles section here. And they're calling this the BVIV support band, right? And the BVIV coming down lower.

[00:05:39]Let's actually just hop to uh what this actually looks like to put some context.

[00:05:44]So, what they're highlighting is this BVIV band is basically where we're sitting right now. And I'll just kind of mark it out where it hits these extremely low levels. And then as you can see from the chart they're using, if you match up when this support band had been hit, that did mark recently big pullbacks in Bitcoin price action. But there is a big big c uh caveat here is when you look back to the last bare market, the last time that Bitcoin was in a bare market consensus like where we're at right now. So I'll go ahead and do this for you. So there's a whole bucket of cold water on this story.

[00:06:21]Honestly, the we hit this volatility index band in July of 23 all the way up to September of 2023. Now, if you followed me in my buys on the basement channel, we actually made a boatload of money off of buying a bunch of altcoins in this zone at the end of 2023, leaning into the danger because the market had largely looked like it had sold off to the point that I usually prefer for bare markets. But over the last two times that the price uh volatility index has hit this level. Yes, the price on Bitcoin has followed followed suit to the downside. But two out of three times been down one out of those three times was marked as a major market reversal.

[00:07:06]Now, this is something that I think is better explained inside. I did a write up inside of our school on exactly what the overscope of the Bitcoin price action, what the RSI and what the weekly market cipher money flow bands and momentum movements have looked like in the bare markets of the past compared to where we're at right now. And just a side note, we were talking about the school. I got to know Sack Nasty on an actual like not just a funny I'm gonna ban you every show that I see you in the chat level, but that was cool to actually get a longer term uh kind of story from Sacknasty. Shout out to you, dude. But there is a lot of volatility that's probably going to be coming in, not necessarily just from the Bitcoin VIX as they call it, but from stuff like this. 14.5 trillion dollars being wiped out from gold and silver over the course of the last 172 days. That's nearly 6.6 6 times the entire crypto market cap has been eviscerated from those local highs on gold and silver. Now where this money flows is a bunch of different directions. Now to broadly speak from macroeconomic terms, gold had to wait about 20 or 30 years for this move. I honestly it could have been longer. And after these major blowoff tops for gold, the US government and treasuries are usually an enticing place for this money to go park itself within. Now, I'm going to just kind of explain myself without all of these indicators here to make this a cleaner uh example. I'll just delete these off the screen. This took a long time. This is a this gold pump was a long time in the making. And gold pumps like this happen when the uh you know country or the economy basically hits a a version of stagflation.

[00:08:54]Now I want to actually pull back all of the data here because something that people are having a I think a difficult time conceptualizing is the size of this market cap now and the pullback. Yes, we're talking about 14.5 trillion dollars being wiped off on this. There's a 28% pullback on gold, but the gold ETF only went live, the spot ETF went live in 2004. The spot ETF for gold was not live all the way through the 80s and 90s. And really, the last time you saw a cup and handle formation accompanied with economic pressures like what we've seen recently is here from 1975 to about the blowoff top of 1980. And then gold spent, this is the terrifying part that keeps me up at night. Gold spent essentially 8,148 days in a bare market accumulation zone before making its next leg up. Right. So where we're at right now, um, yes, a mass of money >> 8,000 days.

[00:09:58]>> Yes. 8,000 days it's spent accumulating.

[00:10:00]>> 20 years.

[00:10:01]>> Yes. Yes. And this is because the government pushes these massive, you know, there there were bags that made just an immense amount of money on this move. When gold m went from 40 bucks up to, you know, $800, lots of money was be has been made. But the Treasury enticements and the moves towards pushing this money to back the mortgage industry caused a lack of interest in major funds or governments to move that money back into gold rather to government provided programs that presented a good yield. Now the cool thing about this is that both of these are cup and handles that played out with a bull flag that happened internally that from a metric standpoint actually is mirroring our current situation. And I circled this bull flag in particular so you guys could see cuz there's a lot of disbelief that gold could keep running back here in the 1979. And and you know what the fun part about this?

[00:10:55]You also had Iran oil embargo. You also had a lot of different things that are happening on a geopolitical scale are pretty easily overlaid to our current situation right now. The more you move on in life, it's just a rinse and repeat of the same process. Now, where we're at right now, we have the exact same structure. We have a midpoint bull flag that played out and continued that expansion to the upside for gold. If I were looking at this, I am considering the fact that this money flows somewhere. Now, Bitcoin and crypto is a much much smaller market cap. We're coming in at around $2.2 trillion market cap right now. This is minuscule to the amount of money that is in gold. And even a toenail dip of that chart that I just showed you with gold makes its way down into the crypto sector in what's largely a consensus of being in a bare market right now that can move the buck in a very aggressive manner. And there are some winners over the past 24 hours.

[00:11:58]Pump Fund is up 17%. GTO another Salana ecosystem.

[00:12:03]>> I'm pretty sure that's because there's supposed to be a bunch of launches coming to Pump Fund. So that should push the revenue.

[00:12:08]>> Bunch of launches. Yes.

[00:12:09]>> And if I'll say anything about meme coins and pump fun in general, I'm a much bigger advocate for buying Pump than buying anything on Pump. So >> yes, >> I'll just say that, you know, don't I would not recommend buying hardly anything on there that launches, >> but Pump itself at least at least it makes money and it and it can pump, pun intended. So, I'm not I don't hold it, but I wouldn't fault you for it because again, this is a lot of what we teach people is how to find projects that are actually revenue generating businesses and Pump is one of them. So, >> well, and a lot of Salana projects you notice too here, right? You get Pump Fund, Jetto, I believe, uh Audio Area is on Salana as well. This one is actually >> uh No, it's actually BSC. This one's been up on the top gainers for a little bit of time here. Um, let's see here. I mean, this looks like crime, but it looks like crime I might be able to get in and out of. I mean, this is criminal right here, but setting up a series of higher lows. Kind of interesting there.

[00:13:12]A lot of Salana uh ecosystem plays here, though. Py penguins. Yeah.

[00:13:17]>> Injective trying to come back. That's not Salana, but kind of >> Salana, which you have to admit, Salana knows how to make money. You know, the chain itself is designed well for fees.

[00:13:25]A lot of the people on there, you know, you could call it Max Extract if you want, but Salana is the money-m chain in a lot of different ways.

[00:13:33]>> Absolutely.

[00:13:34]>> Near obviously, like you said, touches the AI piece and virtuals, that sort of stuff, but a lot of good stuff on Salana. Mhm.

[00:13:41]>> That's why it's my number. It's kind of Salana. I was just having this conversation with somebody on the phone before the show is probably, you know, you guys know I love Bitcoin and Ethereum. Like those are obvious holds, but riskto-reward right now, I mean, what is Salana? Is it under 80 bucks still? I haven't looked at it this far.

[00:13:57]>> Yeah, it's been riding around kind of the $80 uh >> 76. Yeah.

[00:14:01]>> Yeah. Let's see. And I did just pick up Salana. Uh kind of starting to rebuild my altcoin bag.

[00:14:08]>> Yeah. Here you go. riskto-reward. I feel like Salana is pretty good. Like high upside, it's beaten down bad. Obviously, it's, you know, you're higher risk than some of your majors, but it's lower risk than a lot of things and it's beaten down. So, Salana to me, you guys, I talk about it a lot. They've got the stable coin issuance, which I think is critical. There's outside of really Ethereum has the large large large majority of it, and Salana has the next best piece. I want to say these are very rough numbers but it's something like 70 plus percent of all stable coins are on Ethereum and around it might be closer to 80 10% on Salana roughly. Um so that defi you know as know I love DeFi. DeFi can't really exist at scale without a large supply of stable coins. So and everybody else is fighting for the rest of it. So I think Salana you're going to see it's fast, it works well. It's got you know retail angle to it. It's got payments, DeFi, AI. It's got a lot of the pieces you need narrative wise to make a really, really good run this next cycle.

[00:15:15]>> Well, and I talked about how good Hyperlid has been at being a chameleon of the interest in the markets. Same with Salana. I mean, if you think about it, >> NFTTS, memes, DeFi, now they're shifting and actually having a great experience developing AI agentic payments infrastructure.

[00:15:33]>> It's a chameleon. And that chameleons are the happiest animals in the jungle of crypto. I will tell you this much because narratives and metas, they will come and go. They will die. And the chains that can adapt to that kind of environment and lean into what's the most next useful sector to be in, those are the ones that end up winning big time. So Salana has actually been pretty nice in terms of a chart and uh in terms of a chain in what I've seen. But there is a lot of crazy stuff going on right now. There's conversations. This is what's happening. Oil went above $80 and actually got near $90 this weekend because of the massive bombardment happening in the Middle East. Oil crashed below $80 now that came out and reported that Iran has proposed a 10day ceasefire to revive the US Iran interimm deal. Now, is it real? Who cares? It doesn't matter. It's Ruters that's reporting on this. So that's what's moving the price action. And really when I look at this, mediators are in between Iran and the United States proposing this 10-day ceasefire. Some side notes, Houthis are taking aim at Saudi Arabia.

[00:16:42]This is not calming down by any means, but the news is doing everything it can to suppress the price of oil and to keep cooler heads on the Wall Street sector so that a big unwinding doesn't occur.

[00:16:54]But all this craziness going on and everything that I just talked about happening over the course of the last weekend, Bitcoin is building up and consolidating at resistance, which is indeed a very, very good thing to see.

[00:17:08]This is on the weekly time frame.

[00:17:10]Bitcoin still riding off that weekly green candle and $64,000 is quite a sticky spot. We have popped our head up into the 65 mark a few times, but generally speaking, we had the most bullish signal I've seen in years happen this weekend. And it was all caused by this man, Andrew Tate. Andrew Tate's been arrested again, folks. And I don't know if you know this, but I actually believe I was the only one on the internet that caught this. Andrew Tate's arrest in December of 2022 marked the exact bottom of Bitcoin's bare market.

[00:17:45]He just got arrested. We have the same signals going on. Bullish div on the RSI, momentum waves, higher lows setting up on Market Cipher. And these two lines, they're lit. They are not made up. This is maybe a coincidence, but I'll just show you exactly what I'm looking at here.

[00:18:04]>> Real quick, while you're pulling that up, I'm just curious. Tate, pretty polarizing character. Uh chat, I want to know from the chat, do you guys like Andrew Tate, hate Andrew Tate? Do you think he deserves to be arrested, shouldn't be arrested? Uh, I'm just curious to hear what the chat thinks if if it's valid charges. I I don't know anything about the arrest. I think you said he got picked up in Miami, but >> yeah. Yeah. The UK >> the UK brought up he did something in 2010 and 2015. Get him, US Marshals. So, the US Marshalss picked him up in Miami.

[00:18:35]It is what it is. He's probably going to become even more bald inside of his prison sentence this next coming one.

[00:18:42]and he'll probably have cigars and be pacing back and forth and make great content out of it. He'll become more popular. Um, you know, I could go onto a rant about exactly how I feel about Tate, but this is what the data says about Tate is that when he is arrested, that is the Bitcoin bottom. Now, maybe it's because he got liquidated 108 times and the market just didn't want him to win. Didn't want him to be present. But he'll probably have some uh what you call it, secretary lady out here buying Bitcoin for him in hisstead. But really want to I want to be very serious about this.

[00:19:19]the doom scrolling and the expectation of extreme lows on Bitcoin and pulling Fibonacci sequences and percentages of draw downs from a hundred billion dollar market cap and overlaying them on a current trillion dollar plus asset is [ __ ] Stop doing it. It's a 10 times larger market cap that you're trying to overlay data from 2021 and it's honestly probably a hundred times bigger than the third uh you know two bare markets past this situation. All you can do is understand that sellers and the relative strength index the system is basically repeating itself. Now, I would be a fool if I was trying to inject my emotions of how bad everything should be because of how bad the media tells me it is and trying to overlay that onto the Bitcoin graph and looking for that $20,000 Bitcoin or the $15,000 Bitcoin. I am in the season of buying and I'm excited because I'm in the season of buying because I don't usually when I'm already in a bull market I have to just leverage trade and play with the uh you know continual momentum to the upside. We're in a situation right now that I don't get into but once every 3 years and looking at this chart I am taking advantage of this entire range. I don't care if this lasts all the way into the middle of 2027. Honestly, to be crazy, I would prefer that this suppression between the 60K to 80K region pulls us all the way to the middle of next year.

[00:20:52]Now, I know that's terrifying for us in terms of excitement, right? And that, you know, the engagement is probably going to be terrible if Black Rockck and these market makers can grind this price action between this range for an entire year from now and a lot of people will check out. But what I'm seeing here [clears throat] and this is absolutely crazy. I gave the school this alpha first and foremost last week is I measure this largely from capitulation candles candles and from weekly RSI and weekly market cipher movements. Now from this current capitulation candle we are sitting at about 168 days from that capitulation candle which was the worst capitulation candle in terms of fear that we've ever seen.

[00:21:39]It went to a five. Now the last capitulation candle and I'm going to leave Tate's arrest marked here in the red line.

[00:21:46]This candle brought us to a seven and it took us essentially 189 days till Tate got arrested and that true bottom was formed. From where we're sitting right now, if we measure out 168 days, we are smack dab at the realization of a true Bitcoin bottom.

[00:22:05]And so I do take these weekly metrics very seriously. I do not use my emotions to, you know, try to interject where Bitcoin price is going to go because the world, if you just look at the media and all the things going on, it looks terrible. But you know what? You're learning and hearing more about how the world is than ever before in human history. The velocity of information is faster than it's ever been. So, I'm taking this bottom signal seriously and I'm excited about the rest of the year.

[00:22:38]Hopefully we can continue to kind of play out uh you know the general swooping bottoming formation and get something like this uh over the course of into 2027 because it's time to spot buy for my portfolio and how I handle this market. But you know there's people that are afraid. There's people that are afraid. They're yelling about Michael Sailor not buying any Bitcoin, which honestly I would have expected him to be buying a lot more Bitcoin at these lows, but the mechanisms of strategy is what it is. Strategy added instead of Bitcoin $225 million in cash reserves. Company sold $263 million worth of common shares to bring their cash reserve up to 3.2 billion. And thankfully, they still do hold the 843,000 Bitcoin. But this is the second week in a row of no new Bitcoin purchases and it's got people terrified. Now, we looked at this uh you know, I know you were looking at the strategy site this morning, TJ.

[00:23:42]>> Mhm.

[00:23:43]>> Um, you know, I think it's fair to go actually check out the STRC chart just off the cuff here because I am curious if that thing has even repegged yet. Um, I know we're looking at dividend payments and how long they can keep the party going in terms of those dividends.

[00:24:00]Um, let's see here. Now, when we looked at, you know, cuz I was kind of early to the party in assuming that Wall Street would basically decapitate strategy because it's not part of the part of the crew. And then I pulled back a bunch of the layers of the owning companies. Isn't that what we found is that, >> you know, some of the companies I thought would be targeting strategy actually have ownership. Yeah.

[00:24:26]>> Huge chunks of ownership in it, >> right?

[00:24:29]>> Yeah. They own the majority. Yeah.

[00:24:30]>> So, that is something I'm thinking about here. Um, now the STRC chart, it still has not repegged though. And we have, it looks like, God, look at all those dividends. They're starting to stack up now. They've done two dividends a month.

[00:24:44]It's just, it's getting uh extra spicy.

[00:24:48]I don't know if the two dividend situation is helping them because that secondary dividend here is actually marking that big weekly red kind of pullback and pulled it back from recovering here.

[00:25:01]This is a risky play. This is a risky play if I were to think about getting some STRC at these levels because it could absolutely go vibe check the 71 mark again. I want to actually go look at MSTR. Yeah, that's a more interesting one because realistically I mean unless you're 70 plus years old, 80 years old, that's really when you know you're getting ready for retirement. That's really what STRC is made for. It's made to be a fixed income.

[00:25:28]>> Yeah.

[00:25:28]>> You know, like you're getting and you're kind of it's a tax play. It's a fixed income play. It's it's a defin it's a piece of a portfolio for somebody nearing retirement in retirement, nearing retirement that are looking at it for consistent income. uh it's not really something >> which I don't think is the majority of the people watching this show. Um you know you're if you're interested in strategy >> it would be more the the common stock MSTR but realistically I always say every time I look at it I would just rather hold Bitcoin. Um you know you're kind of betting on the reason to hold strategy is you're betting on the fact that the management can accumulate Bitcoin better than you can. And maybe that's true, maybe it's not, but I lean much more towards self- sovereignty and self ownership than I do kind of shopping that out to somebody else. So, >> um, you know, like you said, you'd be thinking they'd be buying more here instead of buying higher and, you know, but >> it is what it is. I think it's I think they're going to I think strategy overall is going to be fine. I do think this product uh the stretch product will end up being a big win for them. But your their their market is like pension funds and you know things like that which aren't again most of us. So you shouldn't shouldn't be treating that like an altcoin play to try to catch that 15%. If you have a lot of wealth and you want some regular income, right?

[00:26:45]Maybe do like I'd rather buy STRC than probably treasuries >> probably. Uh but I don't but I'm not buying a bunch of treasuries either. So, um, >> this and the MSTR chart actually looks this I mean I I'm a leverage trader too and like I consider MSTR as leverage Bitcoin.

[00:27:04]And if I'm looking at this thing just from a male astrologologist perspective, I mean this is a pretty substantial bullish divergence on the weekly RSI and you are now tapping into the region of you know previous what was resistance uh marketkedly you know probably one two three four five times maybe even six if you count this stumble point that's six points and now it's ran into that and found that that is support once so far.

[00:27:36]>> Um, so actually am I I'm kind of you know what I might buy some stupid MSTR stock. I might do it actually. But just looking at this chart and how many people are betting against it, >> I don't like the consensus trades at all. And and this is the time to do it.

[00:27:54]Like you just pointed out under $100 nearing that, you know, $80 in that range is really like you said, look at the chart. It's definitely in the accumulation zone right now.

[00:28:04]And it it is a leverage play on Bitcoin.

[00:28:06]They have a lot. So when Bitcoin goes down, strategy is going to go down a little bit more. When Bitcoin goes up, >> strategy is going to go up a little bit more. So I and I want to say it's a 1.3ish, maybe 1.4 leverage play on Bitcoin. So >> you know, that's a pretty good reason to hold it right there. And part of it is if you want to diversify and, you know, it's not as much of a diversification because you're still relying on Bitcoin, but you can hold it in different types of accounts. You can probably borrow against it somewhat easier. It's getting easier and easier to borrow against Bitcoin in, you know, typical brokerage accounts. But >> yeah, if you're going to buy, if you're thinking about buying strategy, now is the time you should be looking at it.

[00:28:42]Not when it's three, four, $500, right?

[00:28:45]You know, not you don't want to be buying strategy when Bitcoin's at an all-time high. You want to be buying it, you know, again, buying Bitcoin or strategy between now and the end of this year. Most likely, traditionally, history and the data says between now and the end of this year is going to be the best time to accumulate. You know, there's a big debate on how much lower we go. Like you've just said, you don't think we're going to get that mega leg down to 40K that a lot of people like to use and you know, there's hyper bearish titles and all that sort of stuff. Uh if if we are going to see that, that would be in September, Octoberish time period to be the absolute pico bottom according to the four-year cycle. I'm also in that camp. I've said many times I think I don't think we're going to see 40k, but uh and this is close enough to accumulating for me. Um July generally pretty good and [clears throat] uh yeah I mean this is I think this is the time to accumulate whether it's Bitcoin or strategy you know or you know again pick your favorite altcoin that if if it actually has value probably a good time to be getting in is putting this three billion plus dollar cash reserve in uh in the strategy's hands as we're going into this dip actually. So, I mean, they could by all means share more, sell more shares over the next few months even and then just try to t time out that October, September hammering back into the market. Honestly, I don't hate this play because I am a violent violent bottom blaster when it comes to bare markets. Like, I do not DCA consistently. I hate that. I hate buying all the way up these charts. It's a little aggravating. Honestly, when we go into bull markets, it's a little aggravating. Um, I might be right there with him. I might be right there.

[00:30:28]>> This guy says, I don't know how I'm supposed to read that name, but rising says this is the price to buy it. When Bitcoin goes to all-time high levels, it's going to a huge multiple. MSTR will be 500 to 700 or higher, which I agree.

[00:30:39]500 plus for sure when Bitcoin goes over 150K. So, yeah. I mean, you it's a it's a pretty clean, you know, if Bitcoin two plus X's from here, it's a pretty clean 3 to 5x on strategy. So, >> absolutely. I'm loving this idea here because I mean I I don't need to rail too much on uh Bitcoin, but I think the four-year cycle still driving the show, but we hit all-time highs earlier, so we actually might dig ourselves out of the bare market earlier. We have variables happening in terms of the four-year cycle, but the general upswing and diminished gains and returns process is going to continue, I think, and that's going to land us in the 2 to 260 range at the end, the conclusion of this next bull market when actually kicks into play. So, I actually don't hate the strategy chart. Now, as everyone's, you know, kind of lamenting, saying it's over forever, Bank of America, second largest bank in the country is building crypto leadership teams and appointing executives to run its digital asset platform. Banks are no longer watching from the sidelines. They're out here actually building the infrastructure to integrate into crypto. While people flee the scene of crypto, these major major organizations are moving in. preparing for the crypto market infrastructure and whales are moving in tandem. Bitcoin whales buying like we've never seen before. Now, this is long-term holder supply spiking well beyond the levels of 2023. And this is a very very good sign to see uh at least for me, right? Cuz I, as I said, I didn't buy through once we breached 30K in the last bull market. I was done with all my buys here, right?

[00:32:26]So, now that I feel like we've had that flush out and seeing the whales coming back in as the price is this beat down is a very, very good sign and kind of leads me to believe I need to get a little bit more serious about.

[00:32:40]The thing that worries me TJ is that the alt season is so insanely difficult to time out because alt seasons happen in different waves of like for instance March of 24 was a lot of AI adjacent.

[00:32:57]You saw some Ethereum layer 2 running and then just like seven months later at the end of 24 was the real kind of blowoff for AI agents. AI agents did 100xes and kind of moves in uh waves that way.

[00:33:13]>> So, an interesting metric to pay attention to. What you got?

[00:33:16]>> No, I was just going to say you're absolutely right and that's part of why having a written out plan and thesis and goals for your picks is one of the most important things which is what we talk about a lot in school. It's >> it is hard to predict. So for example the last cycle you know alt season or the top of a lot of the altcoins being in 2024 we got a pump and you know way you know prehaving is really when all it was the right time to sell a lot of those especially the AI sector and those altcoins and many people didn't many people were thinking oh this is the sign that it's going to start and they bought the top but if you'd already been holding them and you had a thesis of hey you know when I make a 3 to 5x here I'm going to take this much profit even if you don't sell it out completely if you have a take profit plan that allows you to take advantage of that when things come that through. And that's probably the biggest mistake I've see people make with altcoins is they buy them and they don't have a plan of when they're going to sell them or what or a goal of what they're trying to accomplish with them.

[00:34:12]And and for me, any altcoin purchase is generally to accumulate more Bitcoin.

[00:34:17]So, if I see something massively outperform Bitcoin in a short period of time, I'm rolling some of those profits back into Bitcoin because I have a Bitcoin goal and my job is to keep growing that Bitcoin stack number. It's not as much about dollars for me as it is Bitcoin. If I can keep stacking Bitcoin, then yeah. And so, and so this is this is a perfect question. What was my goal with Arrow? My goal with Arrow is much more long-term. I we use Arrow all the time to generate fees, right?

[00:34:45]So, that was a long-term hold and I'm waiting for BAS and the DeFi and Coinbase and everything that's happening with Arrow and Morpho to see its full thesis play out. So, yes, I'm continuing to hold that, but I'm pretty sure I made close to $3,000 in fees last week and I do that every single week and I accumulate it and I use that to add more Bitcoin. So, right, >> it's a different and this is why we teach that there's different buckets in your portfolio. I don't have 100% of my portfolio in DeFi. I don't have 100% of it in altcoins. I don't have 100% in Bitcoin. I have a lot in Bitcoin. I have some in DeFi. I have some in altcoin, some in growth, some in kind of the the high, you know, spec, you know, I separate growth and speculation from like Salana, chain link. Some of those majors would be growth. And then speculation is more of the morphos and some of those lower cap ones that I think are going to really perform well.

[00:35:35]But the thesis is Coinbase bringing DeFi to the masses, which I see I'm pretty sure if you look at and this is adjacent. It's not directly related, but uh this tab right here, you can see there's a separate, you know, adoption of it says sticks, but a tokenized stocks has completely decoupled from Bitcoin. So, if you're looking at this chart, tokenized stocks rising dramatically while the price of Bitcoin is falling. So my belief is as this stock market and all this stuff, the fundamentals are getting stronger and stronger and stronger. It's just other factors that are driving the price of Bitcoin down. Eventually, this will snap back up and we'll see things like Morpho, Arrow, and a lot of these things that enable uh DeFi, onchain DeFi to in Ethereum especially will all recover and that's when I take profits and I again I use it I use a lot of my DeFi in a ETH Bitcoin pair and we're kind of playing the divergence and when you know especially lately we've been seeing a lot of ETH outperforming Bitcoin, you take some of those profits and then you rebalance and then you do it again. So, um, yeah, that's that's why I'm and and that's why I know that and it's easy for me to hold arrow up and down. And again, I accumulated a lot of it around 40 cents. I told other people to continue.

[00:36:54]You know, 40 cents is the magic number.

[00:36:55]We're close to that now. I I have a long-term thesis on Arrow. I'll probably be selling a a m I don't know about all of it, but a lot of it in 2029, but, you know, there's a lot that's going to happen between now and then. So, I'll be watching and waiting and updating. Yeah, I think it's cool that because obviously you have your your DeFi mechanisms and we have that portion within the company, but then also my perspective is cheating like crazy, you know, like right a drrome, I don't even have any of it right now. I'm driving a truck around that bought it, but um you know, aerodyome I was actually looking at >> I I haven't seen anything systemically replace it. And so, you know, in terms of fees and revenue, it's been a consistent maker of revenue. And I want to get I actually have a list of all the different revenue-making altcoins that are out there right now that we may as well highlight here while we're on the subject. There's 14 onchain businesses earning more than $200 million in a 2-year time frame in terms of revenue.

[00:37:55]Now, in 2021, any barely any DAPs made money. Now, we have actual revenue generating machines. Tether at 11.2 billion dollars in two years. Circle at 4.1 billion. And that Circle, I bet you Circle will still be down on stock market as well. That's a strategy and circle. I got to remember those. Um, Hyperliquid, great project. And you know, with the early pumps that we saw this morning from Pump, Pump came in at 1.4 1.1 billion. But the interesting thing about this is Hyperlid has been in play for way less time than Pump has.

[00:38:34]And Hyperliquid has already passed Pump in terms of its revenue over the past 2 years. Phantom uh shout out from the God Phantom. This is the new didn't is this the app? This is the app layer to Salana.

[00:38:48]Phantom >> that's the wallet I would imagine. Yeah.

[00:38:51]I think you know one thing that Bass you know the base app it's pretty cool the Phantom wallet user interface has been unmatched though I think that user interface is incredible >> um you know Axiom Pro you know fine it's making some money honestly every single one of these tokens deserves deeper insight aerodrome is up here it made about $375 million in revenue over the course of the last two Photon right under it, Jupiter, Fragment, Edex, MetaMask, and A. So these are the companies in the altcoin, you know, kind of products that are generating cash value. But crypto comes in waves and even products that are or firms that are in revenue making seasons, they are beholden to what cycle and what part of the cycle we're in. And something very interesting is that the market cap dominance of Tether is hitting a level that has my attention. So the dominance that Tether holds over the entire crypto market is sitting here at about an 8.3% level. But what I do see is a potential that this could act as basically a form or a location of resistance because I think circle's been pushed back in the mind share and circle actually stands to gain more from where it sits right now and tether has been really kind of taken over in terms of market cap mind share across crypto for quite some time.

[00:40:25]Circle is not dead and it's actually got a US regulatory preferential treatment in my opinion. So I'm looking at this and just noticing that December 2022 we were at the same level and moving through really the whole year of 2023 we were sitting at essentially the same zone of 8 to 9% that we're in right now with Tether. And then you have that break point at the end of 23 in October where Tether dominance didn't have to fall to zero, but it fell from 8.3% down to about 4%. And that entire alt fund season, Tether dominance only had to drop down to the 4 to 5% region. And you saw the altcoins really start to wake up. So this is something pretty important that I'm paying attention to right now. Now, it does stand the potential. We see Circle go down big and then Tether just takes over everything and breaks out of this. If I were a wagering fellow though, I would say that actually Circle standing a little bit of opening to gain against Tether. And I'm actually, you know, on top of the strategy chart, I'm actually interested to go check out Circle because I know this one has been beat down like some meme coins and we're still sitting here. I mean, I like this circle chart. I like this circle chart for sure. Um, because as I said, you know, you have, and we always talk about this, you have to focus on things that are making revenue. And Circle is the second biggest revenue generating machine in crypto, right behind Tether.

[00:41:56]And they have two very, very different graphs. And Circle is actually a pretty good opportunity right now in my opinion. Um, other alts that I wanted to look at, Ethereum. Now, Ethereum has basically been magnetized to this $1,800 mark for a few weeks. We've been stuck here between 1,700 and uh essentially $1,900.

[00:42:17]But Ethereum is actually looking to head back into green money flow. It seems quicker than Bitcoin. The money flow metric on Ethereum is coming up and it might actually turn quite sharp. If really they you would expect altcoins and Ethereum to be performing way worse than they are right now given the geopolitical context of what's going on with war reigniting and all those different things happening. And I'm not the kind of guy that loves Ethereum, but I don't hate the risk-to-reward ratio on Ethereum right now. Um, because this is a systemically entrenched part of crypto and the DeFi that's happening on it, the real world asset representation on it. Ethereum is real and it is here to stay. And over the course of the last few weeks, it's been performing pretty good in comparison to Bitcoin, that $1,500 flush out that we've seen, you know, just a month or two back, uh, right in this zone. I think it was about May of 26, we had that $1,500 flush out.

[00:43:27]That might be just it. Ethereum looks like it's actually targeting the mid $2,000 range over the course of the next few months. So, >> um, you know, I, as much trash as I like to talk about Ethereum, this chart actually looks pretty structurally sound to me. And it's, there's a lot to be said uh, for a project like that in was it ETH Glamsterdam, dog? [laughter] What is is that a real thing? Is that >> I have no ETH Amsterdam.

[00:43:58]But yeah, uh, no, Ethereum's looking strong and like I mentioned, it's actually rounding out on the ETH BTC chart, which, uh, is pretty important.

[00:44:08]Um, >> another one of these things, you know, you might want to pull up while we've got a second that Yeah, go you can pull that up. But another one that comes up a lot that I know a lot of people in the chat hold that I wanted to talk about for a second is chain link, right?

[00:44:21]That's another one that has I would say like if you say ETH has disappointed people especially in the last cycle.

[00:44:27]Chain link is another one that I would say has largely disappointed many people. There's a lot of people that hold it. I'm one of them. I think people a lot of people see the news and it doesn't translate into token price and I saw uh this thing come up here which I just generally agree with. Uh he basically said a few years from now I'll either look like a complete idiot or a genius with link nothing in between. And I'm I'm in the same boat where it's like I'm holding a bunch of it. They've they've actually taken steps for the token to capture value now, which is huge. Um but I mean they've got this congratulations to the DCTC processing its first ever production trades on tokenized US securities powered by chain link along 30 other major institutions.

[00:45:08]And you look at the institutions Black Rockck, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Vanguard, Stock Exchange, NASDAQ, CME, Microsoft, State Street, BNP, you know, like the list goes on. Citadel. The list goes on and on and on. And it really feels like this thing is getting massively suppressed and will will turn into something at some point. But at this point, I am full I am irresponsibly long. I'm holding a large bag of it and there really is no in between. Either it hits and like I said, I'll look like a genius and I'll have made a ton of money or um you know, it just continues to languish like it's been feeling like this time. So, but the partnerships are there, the infrastructure is there. I will continue to bet on infrastructure >> because it's proven out time and time again.

[00:45:55]>> So, when I look at Ethereum, when I look at chain link, obviously Bitcoin as a store of value, uh that Aeromorpho was that base ecosystem infrastructure play, there's a lot of infrastructure plays that are getting a lot of momentum. And as the market starts to move on chain as the whole world gets tokenized, which has been the thesis from the beginning that everything will be on chain and we're seeing that play out more and more and more. It's slow, but it's starting to play out more and more and more where we're seeing all things move onchain, uh, link will it does feel like is going to capture some of that stuff. But when you look at the chart, you know, as far the fundamentals again stronger and stronger and stronger chart just depressing. Well, it it's extra depressing because they released the Treasury buys program literally middle of October, like >> right here, like right before we went downtown, >> and I did just move actually back into a small bag of link. I'm starting to rebuild the position in link. Um, you know, I've I put my money where my mouth is in terms of this buy box and this likely point of defense that chain link would represent in the mid to low $7 range. So, yes, I did re start rebuilding the chain link bag. Um, you know, and really when I look at this the, you know, it's got a series of higher lows going for it from a structural standpoint, even if it continues to disappoint in terms of blowoff top and all-time highs. The lower-end expectation of seven bucks to this downward trend line is a 200% increase. Right? So, I like the season that I'm in right now. my I think the odds are in my favor if I'm buying chain link in this region and they do have a treasury that you know has now bought millions and millions of dollars of chain link on the way down mind you they they bought and they continue to buy on that chain link treasury all the way down as the bare market took hold the DTCC news it makes me wonder if truth even matters to people um the when I get on X and just type in crypto top stories It's all trash. It's XRP is now live on the DTCC, which is a lie. And people don't care. It's the most popular stuff out there right now. And it's a little maddening. This is why I like rather than trying to keep up with these scoundrels and savages that are lying to people about what's literally happening in the planet, I can focus in on education, right? And that makes me feel a lot better. Sometimes it does make you wonder uh you know and I oh this is a good link was my first token.

[00:48:37]Chain link XRP and Ethereum and Bitcoin were the first crypto projects that I bought um in the COVID TJ. What was the first crypto project you bought?

[00:48:49]>> First one I ever bought was Ethereum.

[00:48:51]>> Was the first one you ever bought was Ethereum. You bought Ethereum before Bitcoin.

[00:48:56]>> Mhm. Yeah. Ethereum was the first like I actually heard about Ethereum.

[00:49:00]>> I mean it was because probably Ethereum was the hottest thing in town. It was 20 early 2017. So I think Ethereum's ICO was 2016.

[00:49:08]>> So it was after that and it was in the ICO days and that was back when the pairs this was before stable coins and everything was either a Bitcoin or Ethereum pair and this was when you needed almost everything was a token on Ethereum and you needed ETH to buy anything. Yep.

[00:49:24]>> So, yeah, I bought Ethereum. I think I bought some Tron way back then. Um, and then some B&B and Bitcoin and all that sort of stuff, but Ethereum was definitely the first thing I ever bought.

[00:49:35]>> Absolutely. I mean, >> and that was back when like you couldn't even get a Binance account because there was way, you know, people were trying like I had the first account I ever got was a Gemini, but it only had I think at the time Gemini only had Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin. Yeah.

[00:49:48]>> And so, like you had to get on Binance or KCoin at the time to get any other kind of altcoin. And yeah, it was it was a different time back then. That's for sure.

[00:49:56]>> Well, simpler times.

[00:49:58]>> There's 30 million plus altcoins out there, right? So, >> I take my job in our school very seriously about giving people the tools and resources to identify the good ones out of 30 million that are largely trash. Right? That's a large undertaking that I feel on my shoulder. So, I'm taking that very, very seriously. the call that I had given weeks ago on Bitcoin dominance I also took seriously and you mentioned this chart TJ I think it's worthy to bring this back up ETH to Bitcoin is still outside of the downward parallel channel that it has broken out of which is a very very good thing to see now if you zoom in on this the retest to the top end of this parallel trend line has happened so far but I would not be, you know, completely convinced that we're out of the woodwork here. Okay, I know when people say love when I say that, but the 200 EMA on this, I want us to actually break above the 200 EMA, come back down and test that before we're getting that bounce.

[00:51:06]Because by all rights, we could come back down here and still be in a bullish structure, but retest this channel top and then move from there. this time frame for Ethereum and the money flow coming back on Ethereum. Bitcoin has remained in control of the entire market for longer than anyone really expected.

[00:51:27]Over 1,260 days now the money flow is flowing back into Ethereum and that's actually got me pretty excited in terms of the altcoin uh you know movements and everything with it. I feel terrible that I didn't know uh I've seen the what is it the ETH ETH Amsterdam or whatever what do they call that again the upgrade coming to Ethereum uh I'm looking at the chat here because I I know that someone had mentioned it to me the upgrade to Ethereum really I know the intentions of the ETH upgrades is because quantum computing and hardening against quantum computing for Ethereum is super important people are out there complaining that the ETH foundation selling they're using the money to advance to advance the protocol to basically harden it against quantum computing which actually I think is a really strong thing to do um in terms of the pressures that crypto is facing right now because the last thing that I want to see is one of the main pieces to DeFi and honestly the main piece to DeFi Ethereum get tested and actually broken by quantum computing. So, you know, I think what the ETH foundation has been selling for is useful. Glammd is the name of the upgrade.

[00:52:40]>> It's a cool name. It's better than >> I So, I stopped keeping up with all the names back back with the [clears throat] the merge, the splurge, the courage, you know, all those kind of things. They have the names are great. They're fun.

[00:52:50]Yeah. And we have covered a lot of the Ethereum upgrades coming like you said the security upgrades and Ethereum's technically getting better and better at all times and I think is again moving to capture that tokenization 247 market. Uh but yeah, the names, you know, I just looked, yeah, there's the Pagota and the Straw Map, you know, all these other things coming out, but the big one, yeah, the next big one is on the, like you said, the parallel execution stuff coming up. Um, and that's this year, you know, so >> they're they're working hard on those updates and honestly, they need to move quick. Um, I think Vitalic is taking the threat of quantum computing as seriously as it should be taken. And you know, in if I'm looking at this ETH to Bitcoin pairing from just a simple chart male astrologologist perspective, this money flow, it looks like it's coming back with a vengeance for Ethereum. And that timing, let's just say we're in the guts of the bare market. We're moving it just to the beginning of 2027.

[00:53:54]Bitcoin's reclaiming, you know, $80,000.

[00:53:57]It's not completely on its glow up, reglow up stage yet, but Ethereum starts running. That's going to be probably one of the more hilarious and aggravating things for the average altcoin investor because a lot of people try to overlay the Bitcoin four-year cycle with exactly what's going to happen with their altcoins and that's not real. It's not how this market works. And so, I'm looking at this ETH dominance chart. I'm taking it very seriously. And one of my the other favorite projects that I had highlighted here, Hyperlid, uh this general trend line just, you know, kind of beginning from the October 10th wick. And actually, I believe you could extend this and uh find some previous price action. I believe when it came out, it started right at that trend. But it's now really trying to defend itself at around $60. And you know, for this range that Hyperlid's in, I'm more interested in taking leverage trades. and then the larger spot buys and where I'll have confluences in the $40 to $50 region essentially. But Hyperliquid's a good one. Um I saw a lot of weird stuff like there's a lot of weird news with uh you remember Andrew Cuomo.

[00:55:07]>> Yeah.

[00:55:08]>> Or yeah, Governor Cuomo. This guy, this is probably one of the weirder news. So Andrew Cuomo is joining the OKX board for some reason. Now he's joining the crypto ranks here. announced with OKX that the former New York governor is joining the board of directors, previously served as the attorney general and the US Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. So, actually, him being a previous New York AG is probably going to be pretty bullish for OKX. This is me just shooting from the hip. It's not about who you know, it's what you know on who. And Andrew Cuomo has a lot of dirt on those uh you know AGs and inside government plays here in New York. New York's been one of the bigger kind of pain points for crypto regulation in the United States.

[00:55:56]So I actually might need to pay a little bit closer attention to OKX over the next few weeks here. And a lot of those exchange tokens, remember this, exchange tokens run to their own beat as well.

[00:56:08]Like Kronos, I want to go look at Kronos real quick. because this thing, a lot of people count it as dead. It's an exchange. I know a lot of people don't use it, but it's actually defending itself. It looks better than a lot of altcoins out there that people have just true dieh hard, you know, uh, belief in.

[00:56:29]And honestly, the pumps on this thing are ridiculous. Like, you know, from the lows of this range, it can move by 400% in a very quick uh amount of time. And I am seeing a little bit of uh you know as we were on the way down and setting lower highs for a lot of the other altcoins. This thing is trying to chunk back up and set higher highs just locally here. I mean this is actually something I I might play a little bit around with uh Kronos and then OKX. I want to go check out OKX. It's been forever since I've seen this uh tokens.

[00:57:04]Let me see here if I can find it. Oh, it's OKB is what the token is. Let me see here.

[00:57:09]I want to see if we get I got a little bit of opportunity here because I'm starting. Oh yeah. Look at this crime I can make money off of. This is great.

[00:57:18]This is great. Look at this move. 400% move. This is on the weekly time frames.

[00:57:23]Uh this is better than Tron. This is better than B&B. What is this? What what is my problem here? I like this 80 bucks right about and then this trend line comes in about 60. I've got a shopping list now.

[00:57:41]I've got a shopping list. Well, it's Monday. People are afraid TJ.

[00:57:45]>> Mhm.

[00:57:45]>> Congratulations to Fain and their soccer win. You know, I saw the uh World Cup one to zero. One of the more boring uh games that I've ever seen. And now we can all get back to altcoin business now the World Cup is over with. TJ, we're gonna have to lock in on some of the tools uh because we got that call coming up on Wednesday in school. So, I'm gonna make sure that that gets going. What are the plans for the rest of the day? Are we What are we doing?

[00:58:16]>> Rest of the day is to hop on and try to get those AI tools ready to roll out to the school community. I'm hoping sooner rather than later. So, we're we've been testing them. We've got them in place that use the research framework that use a bunch of different places to identify uh token value, product fit, portfolio fit, all that sort of stuff. Um so yeah, we're going to be working on that and getting ready for the school call Wednesday and we'll see you guys back tomorrow. We just wanted to take a quick second to shout out our sponsor Arculus.

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