SUPPLY SHOCK? 🚨 Saylor Strikes, MS Stacks, Demand oustrips, STH RP Achieved

追加: 2026-05-12

[00:00:06]Good morning everybody. It's Monday.

[00:00:09]Monday is when we cover Bitcoin and Micro Strategy and other proxies, ETFs, and what's going on. And we've reclaimed a whole bunch of critical levels. And let's look at some of the key signs that could bode very well for the future.

[00:00:24]Yes, just like last year, everything is different this year as well. So, thank you to the mods in the chat. Thank you cyber sniper as well and K8 and whoever else I'm missing. We got people live in Germany, Singapore, etc. Really exciting to see all those different nations. Drop your country if you want. Aon, thanks for coming as well. This one is called signs of supply shock. And I don't want people to get too excited, but there are some signs that we need to look at. And I know as price goes up, if you go back to 126,500, yeah, people will sell again and then there'll be less supply shock, but do not discount Wall Street because they're coming fit fast and furious. A lot of other things coming Fit Fast and Furious, too. Let's get into the story.

[00:01:09]And again, I got a big coffee here, so I'm very happy. And uh that's first of all, not financial advice, just a guy on the internet. And a big thank you to Boring. What a cool name. I love that name. He said, "Patreon is my go-to every day." Yes, lots of stuff every day. Thank you for being here. Uh, first of all, this is a new exhibit. So, what I do is I share the actual gain from the previous week. Last week, Bitcoin went up 3.8%.

[00:01:38]The weekly close price was 78,420. Yeah, you can't make that up. And Micro Strategy Holdings were 818,334.

[00:01:47]Again, they are in striking distance of a million Bitcoin. That's exactly what sailor was going for. But the gain this week, which ended a few hours ago, 4.8% even stronger than last week. The weekly close price was 82,188.

[00:02:02]All those eights for those in Asia, eights are very good luck numbers. And the holdings for Micro Strategy, Zeno, good morning. 818,869.

[00:02:13]I can't believe all the eights on this page. They are what they are, but it's it's a good sign. again, we'll we'll find any good signs we can out here as well. So, things are changing big time.

[00:02:25]Now, Bitcoin's also up 6.2% in May so far, and we're in the third green month after a very nasty five red months. So, we'll take that. And we had a new daily close. This is the highest close for Bitcoin since early January. And I know once we broke through 100K, that thing just tanked. It just fell like a stone and it was nasty. It caught a lot of people offguard including myself Mayor Kulpa it just if you look at just the left hand side of that chart the speed of the gold like literally we went from 100 grand down to 60k in a matter of weeks. It was shocking but now we're clawing our way back and that's a good thing. You'll see as well the trend is up beautifully from about $64,000.

[00:03:14]That's when we had the confirmation that we're back in the game and it has not failed since. So, watch this space carefully. The bears are protesting this and they still believe 40K is on the cards, but we'll see. It doesn't look like it from the data I'm about to show you all, ladies and gentlemen. And again, we had the highest weekly close since January 2026. You can see that precipitous fall there on the chart.

[00:03:38]Couple of things to note here. This is the ATR model. We are now nicely above level four on the ATR which is around 78,000.

[00:03:47]That's good to have that behind us. Next in the box is about 96,000 level five and after that the all-time high. So trend is up, charts are up. We're above a key support level. Very important. Now we got to claw our way back to the all-time high. Now another very important level that we just put behind us is the short-term holder realized price. People were nervous about this because they thought once Bitcoin gets hits the short-term holder realized price. The general thinking is okay now people had the short-term holders that got in over the last 155 days. They get back to break even. What's the first thing they do? They dump. But no, that's not what happened. And it's not typically what happens either. They just happen to be back in profit. And yeah, they were the storm for 12 weeks or whatever, but now they're back. So, putting that short-term motor to realize price behind us is a very important level too as we go forward. Now, the institutions, we cannot fade the actual ETFs and institutions right now.

[00:04:55]And spot ETFs combined with Micro Strategy and Wales equal the tightest or driving the tightest supply environment ever. Last week, 700 million flew into Bitcoin funds. And of course, Sailor bought some, too. And that's the strongest in quite a while. And again, very good streak behind us. And institutions are beginning to see Bitcoin. This is the wake up moment we spoke about a while ago. And I'm beginning to hear rumblings about this, too. The institutions are beginning to see, huh, you know, Age of Agi, SAS apocalypse, etc., etc. Maybe we need to get some of this Bitcoin stuff just to augment our portfolios a little bit. And that's exactly what's happening. One firm, this is called Morgan Stanley. Their ETF is called MSBT, Morgan Stanley Bitcoin. I guess they just ended their first trading month. Now, what's very important about this first trading month for Morgan Stanley, and they are a monster. They're like 11 trillion shop.

[00:05:56]Huge money runner. Not as big as Black Rockck, but way up there. again. First trading month over, zero outflows, zero, zero, zero, zero. And now they have a quarter of a billion dollars in assets from nowhere. So again, yet another trad firm coming in, and we have JP Morgan coming in. We have Goldman Sachs coming in. I think Goldman Sachs are leaving New York City, going to Florida, but they're also building their Bitcoin bag at the same time. Watch this space carefully. TRDFI are coming. And as I've also mentioned many times before, this is how demand far outstrips supply. This chart would give anybody pause. Shout out to Huddle 15 Capital who puts this beautiful visual together. But just look at the visual disparity between what is being mined versus what is being bought by the ETFs and public companies. Again, let's let's go and uh talk about this for a second because very important. If we go back to 2024, we had 218,000 Bitcoin mined and the amount bought red is Micro Strategy 257K. Micro Strategy bought more than was mined in the whole year ETFs over half a million Bitcoin and public companies apart from Micro Strategy 60,000. Not that bad. Now, if we go and people will get confused because how come the amount mined in 2024 is higher than 2025? Well, that's because the having happened in April.

[00:07:24]That's the difference. So, the first quarter of the year, it had a higher reward for Bitcoin miners. And remember, when we go forward to 2028, that 164K will be 84,000 a year mined.

[00:07:39]84 84.

[00:07:42]This thing is so hard. It's fantastic.

[00:07:44]Um, back to that sailor still outstripped the amount mined. 226 versus 164. ETFs also outstripped 183 versus 164 and public companies 145K versus 164. Even the other stackers nearly nearly outstripped the amount mined. So where's all this Bitcoin coming from? The answer is long-term holders sold. That's it. And they pivoted to AI, which is normal. You want to diversify as best you can. So far 2026 145,834 Bitcoin stacked by one player Micro Strategy.

[00:08:23]Okay, that's four times the mining supply. The ETFs have been a bit slow, but they're ramping up 43K so far and uh actually if you compare 43K so far this stage in the year, it's about equivalent to 2025, but there are new players coming in like Morgan Stanley and then 25K into public companies as well. So that is very very important. If it's real simple, the math is very simple.

[00:08:47]People look at TA and draw lines and charts and all that type of stuff. No, it's all about the money flow and what the long-term holders are doing. That's it. That's the calculus that drives the price, everybody. And I'll show you exactly how to calculate the amount of price driven by the amount that is bought. But getting back to a little more data too, this is a quick summary of where we are with onchain. And I'll talk about this more in detail tomorrow in Octa. But you look at the current exchange supply. It's 2.21 million Bitcoin, a 7-year low, only 5.88% of circulating demand. Not bad. Wales.

[00:09:29]Okay. Wales bought nearly 1,000 plus uh the 1,000 plus Bitcoin whales bought 270,000 Bitcoin.

[00:09:39]Big accumulation as well so far this year. The Rhodddle ratio 4.5 that is a cycle bottom RH huddle ratio and the MVRVZ score is 1.2 very healthy and very far from tops. So we are seeing all the bottom signals and the turnaround signals and we're not overheated by any stretch of the imagination. And then hash rates okay near near one zahash which is pretty good for the security of the network and that's the onchain quick dirty summary.

[00:10:11]Now another piece of onchain we have to look at this is shout out to Bitcoin magazine pro. 88% of Bitcoin hasn't moved in over 3 months which is approaching an all-time high level.

[00:10:23]Okay, I want you to feast your eyes on that color.

[00:10:28]Forget the purple. That's greater than 10 years. And remember, the 10-year piece includes a lot of lost Bitcoin.

[00:10:33]But if you look down to the orange on the bottom right corner near an all-time high, the amount of Bitcoin not moved for that one month to three month, three month to six month, etc. Very good sign, too. So, it's not like the long-term holders are ditching their bags at all.

[00:10:53]And a lot of that purple will stay there forever. In fact, that purple grows every single year because people lose their coins all the time. Now, another data point which is interesting. Again, the theme is hardening supply. I don't want to say the word supply shock, but if you look at Bitcoin and OTC desks, this is from CryptoQuant. I used to track all the wallets myself, but it's just too many wallets, too much time, so I said screw it. Anyway, Bitcoin is a cryptoquant now do it for me. Bitcoin on OTC desks hit a multi-year low again.

[00:11:24]They've res the reserves. This is where people like Sailor go to buy their bags have dropped to a historic low of only 142,000 Bitcoin.

[00:11:34]I have when I used to track the individual wallets, I went we went as low as 120,000. Once remember, they always have to keep some in supply. But when this runs out or if this runs out, that will force buyers like the ETFs like Michael Sailor to go buy on Coinbase and Binance, etc. And then we're going to see some crazy price action. That day is coming. I don't know if it's in 6 months or 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, but it's definitely coming again, especially after the next having.

[00:12:05]It's going to be insane. And the only thing that will counterbalance that is the price going up to the moon. We'll talk more about some price targets in a second. And we had really strong 6 weeks of inflows into the ETFs. Very strong indeed. In fact, of the last 11 weeks, only one week was negative. And it wasn't even that badly negative. So, yes, the ETFs are back and they're stacking religiously. Remember, they tell their clients to allocate X% per week. And that's the constant drip drip drip, the perpetual bid that comes into these babies, which is fantastic. TND, thank you for joining us. Now, I did write a Substack on this as well, and this is uncanny how good this was, but this week alone, 622 million flowed into the ETFs. And as I said before, every billion dollars that goes into the ETFs, it increases the Bitcoin price by 3%. 622 million is approximately a third of that billion.

[00:13:03]And that should result in a 2% price increase. And this is exactly what happened last week between Monday and Friday with the ETF buy. So 2% comes in.

[00:13:12]If this week that we're in right now, if a billion dollars comes in, expect the price to go up by 3%. And if Michael Sailor does a big buy with STRC, expect it even more. Thank you, Panda, out there in Switzerland. Appreciate you.

[00:13:26]Now, this is another interesting little chart. I'm going to turn off my camera so you can see the full thing, but perspective and how things change.

[00:13:34]Bitcoin just flipped both Tesla and Meta by market cap. Yeah, when Bitcoin fell to 60K, 65K, the market cap fell down to nearly $1.2 trillion and that put it behind a lot of the big players like Mag 7. But what is interesting is now Bitcoin is back above Tesla and Meta and of course Berkshire as well. And in fact Tesla also flipped Meta which is also very interesting too. So again that's between December 2023 and May 2026.

[00:14:03]We'll see a lot of changes in the shakeup over the next 5 years of all the top companies in the world. Crazy crazy changes are coming. I promise you that.

[00:14:12]Be in the right positions. Now, Vanek come out with their super be careful everybody. This is a big hit. But Matthew Seagull, who really knows this stuff, uh he's at Bitwise. No, no, he's at Sorry, Matthew Seagull's at Van, but Bitwise also forecast a million dollar bitcoins. So now Bitwise and Van are saying Bitcoin is going to $1 million.

[00:14:35]But the difference is Vanex says it's going to hit that target in 2031 and they're looking at demographic trends, uh what people are doing, etc., and believes we'll hit that. So can you wait 5 years for Bitcoin to hit a million dollars? By the way, if we do hit a million dollars, the kagger on this puppy is north of 25%.

[00:14:57]very very strong consistently into the future. And there's lots of theories now that you know the four-year cycle is dead. If the money keeps flowing in and as this thing gets harder and harder the price will go up. It's that simple and it's going to be a fascinating experience to watch as well.

[00:15:14]So be patient my friends. Stay healthy.

[00:15:17]Now astrology dour. This is another cool chart. Speaking of Mag 7, thanks to Ash Crypto for this comparison. Bitcoin, according to him, is following the exact same market structure as Google did in 2021. By the way, Google has been ripping an absolute freaking beast as an AI play TPU maker hyperscaler. It's doing all the good stuff, but his theory is Bitcoin is following the exact same pattern. Therefore, if there is, and I don't believe this at all, but it's worth sharing. If Bitcoin does follow the same structure, expect us to go off to the races. And we're talking north at 250K if it follows this Google structure. Again, Bitcoin broke above the 2021 highs, retested the breakout zone. The bounce is happening just like the bounce that Google had. A very, very different animal, but fun to watch as well if you're into astrology. And Michael Sailor strikes again. Not a big buy, only 535 Bitcoin. But what is important is his average cost per Bitcoin is $75,000.

[00:16:26]Okay, Bitcoin price is last time I checked it was like 82K. Uh it's probably a little bit dippy dippy now.

[00:16:32]Uh Bitcoin 81,000. So it fell $1,000.

[00:16:36]But again, they're like $6,000 per Bitcoin in profit and take that $6,000 multiply by 819,000 Bitcoin. That's a lot of profit. again. It was a hard time for him during that brief little bear that we had, but now he's he has his mojo back and he's all very excited.

[00:16:56]They've increased their Bitcoin bag by 9.4% year to date. They have a positive NAV premium again, so it's all good. And last week as well, by the way, they ATMed. There was no very little STRC, but 231 million shares were sold versus 1,400 STRC. Basically, SCRC pulled in 100 grand. Nothing, but 43 million came in from the ATM, which is not accreative, but it is slightly because they're say they're trading at a nav premium now, which is good. So, we'll take that. And again, what you need to look at is your Satoshi's per share.

[00:17:31]Since I first bought Micro Strategy, I now have more than 11 times more Satoshi's per share from the very first share that I bought of Micro Strategy.

[00:17:40]That is the game. Consider them like your DCA partner. They are stacking Bitcoin for you. So the thesis strategy, yeah, we went through a bumpy patch there, but it's back. It's back. And just so you see here again, we will buy Bitcoin at prices from 200K to 16 million. We are never a net seller. And this is important because he did say something. He said, well, we might sell a bit of Bitcoin just to inoculate the market. And he kind of walked that back.

[00:18:10]like he said will never be a net seller.

[00:18:12]They may strategically sell for tax reasons in a short window of time, but given any given period, any month, any quarter, any year, they will always be a buyer and they will always be buying the top. And JP Morgan sees potential $30 billion in annualized buy. JP Morgan is bullish on Micro Strategy. And JP Morgan is a firm that hated Bitcoin for the longest time. So again, we're back.

[00:18:36]We're back, my friends, which is good.

[00:18:38]And this is what I call fits and starts.

[00:18:42]This is a chart from the Bitcoin conference uh last week. Was I think it was last week? I can't even remember.

[00:18:49]But you can see how it has grown. The demand for STRC has grown. We're in that kind of quiet period between the X dividend date. Normally people will jump into the STRPC position to get the dividend payout. So expect some big demand in STRC this week. hopefully a few billion dollars and they can take that money and buy Bitcoin again making the supply harder but sadly also denying whole coiners. Now final advertisement of the day US debt is heading for $40 trillion. If this doesn't scare you I don't know what will. I want to focus on one thing and the debt per taxpayer.

[00:19:26]People talk about debt per citizen that doesn't matter. Debt per taxpayer is what matters and that number of taxpayers is going to go down over the next 5 years. No ifs, ands or buts. So the debt per actual taxpayer is going to double to maybe 800,000. And as the debt goes higher and higher, your your fiat will get more and more debased because there'll be more and more money printing as they service this debt at high interest rates. This is why I'm very confident as well that interest rates will fall. Check out my mortgage piece yesterday in the Q&A. Interest rates will come down, my friends. But this should alarm everybody.

[00:20:02]this your children and your grandchildren will be saddled with this 40 trillion. And this is not limited to just the United States. It's happening all over the world. They're all spending like drunken sailors on stupid fraud, waste, and abuse. That's it. Okay, here's my 5-day outlook. Another new type of slide. We've got 80K back in the bag. A bullish setup. We've got the short-term hold to realize price behind us. We've got the ETFs, micro strategy stacking.

[00:20:33]82K is a historical resistance level.

[00:20:36]I'm talking about that. We need to get above 82K solidly for 3 days straight before we can put it behind us. But the bias is definitely bullish. 80 90K should not be that far away. We're talking if the ETSs continue to stack, we'll be back at 90K within 4 to 6 weeks. Bookmark this. That's just the math. and meme dour. I'm getting stronger with age. I can now lift $100 worth of groceries with one hand. I don't know if people understand that, but hopefully they do. Basically, it is inflation is hitting everybody because money printing is incredible. No, you're not getting stronger. You can just buy less with your $100. That's the story.

[00:21:17]Big thank you to Shauny, TD, Cipher Sniper, K8, and everybody else for being here. I hope you all learned something new in those little 30 nuggets. And again, thank you to the whole team for being here. Have a great Monday. See you tomorrow for Octa. Back to coffee. Bye.