This video demonstrates how probability and risk assessment work in live stream gambling, where viewers wager on unpredictable real-world events like animal behavior, random object selection, and visual observations. The streamer shows how odds are calculated (e.g., 10-to-1 bets on yellow cars passing by), how probability analysis can inform betting decisions (e.g., analyzing chat word frequency), and how cumulative probability affects long-term outcomes. The content illustrates that gambling on random events involves understanding both the likelihood of outcomes and the potential risk-reward ratios, with the streamer ultimately winning 50 gifted subs through strategic betting across multiple events.
Deep Dive
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Deep Dive
Can my chat gamble on complete strangers?
Added:Ladies and gentlemen, here's what we're doing today. We're gambling. Okay, so what here's what I think we should do.
We should open up random things that you're not supposed to gamble on. We just like find YouTube streams and whatnot and then we just gamble gifted subs on what we think is going to happen next. This was inspired because I thought about the idea of gambling on the New York Stock Exchange, you know, like this and then we could bet on like does one person come to this monitor that. Okay, that that's it. Chad, is this anything?
I'm kidding. I know this isn't anything.
We got to just like wing it. What are we going to bet on? Let's start with Monterey Bay Aquarium. Otter comes fully out of the water is a good gamble. Otter out of water. Gamble. Which bet do you guys want to take? Otter leaves water in 2 minutes. Or are you saying Otter does not leave water in 2 minutes? What do you want to put money on?
Once this otter returns to the water we're betting, how many gifted subs are you willing to bet? Now, this is very, very important. We're doing 10 total gamles on random things that we pick on the internet. Okay. Is she just going to take a nap there? We might have to come back to this gamble. It's not immediate gifted subs. It's going to be at the end whoever has one less. That difference you owe. Okay. So, I need someone here to promise you'll pay. Okay. No deal.
I'm broke. I'm not saying every person donates 30 gifted subs. Just collectively just take the wheel.
>> No, you're gifting right now. That's not the point. Save this till after. I'm poor, so no. It's fine. You don't personally have to. Doug, people can look ahead. It's a live stream. They cannot. I could take out a loan.
Whatever. It's fine. Okay, they're inside the tub. Hold on. Please hold.
Please hold. Is everybody cool with this deal? Let me let me let me vote it. If you agree to this, the instant all of the otter are back in the water. We will start the bet. 90 seconds is what I have. 15 subs. You guys are saying they come back out of the water. Fold out.
Fully out of the water. If a flipper is still in, that's still my win. Okay.
Okay. Okay. Okay. Ready, set, go. Okay.
They're playing by the water. They're playing or by the by the glass. This is where people This is Monterey Bay Aquarium. This is where people come and look at the otter. They need full body out of water. We're down to a minute.
No, no, no, no, no, NO, NO. OH, BACK IN.
LET'S GO. OH, super hype. Holy.
No. Stand. Stand. Pull her back. Pull her back. Yes. The water is so soothing and refreshing, isn't it? No. No. No.
No. Pull her belt. Pull her back. All right. GG. You know what's wild? I've watched a lot of the sea otterters at the Monterey Bay Aquarium. It is pretty rare that they come out this often. This is not common. That's why I was actually like pretty confident in the stay in the water bet, but they're really active right now. We might have paid the orders in advance. Annies, bees, bugs, and butterflies gummies from Whole Foods.
These gummies can be bees or bugs or butterflies. Chat, I will be opening this single pack and we will bet on which do you think has the largest quantity, bees, bugs, or butterflies? I will take butterflies. How many gifted subs do you want on this? If it's bugs, it's a wash. And we open another pack.
10, 20, 30, 40, listen up to 50, I guess. 50 subs on this one. You guys are insane in this chatter economy. I'll [ __ ] do it, chat. All right, you know what? I I have 10 of these packs. I'm going to open one. This is not our our main pack. This is just to see what they look like. Oh, these are some of the gross. I do not like gummies. Uh, okay.
So, obviously, this is a butterfly. Can I even show you? Wait, wait, is this a bee? Hold on. I I guess I need to make it even bigger. Butterfly. Bug.
The bug is like a beetle, I guess. Any questions? I'm swapping to bugs. You can't change. I'm The only reason I would change is cuz it's [ __ ] Excuse my language. It's very hard to tell the difference between a bee and a butterfly with the Whole Foods Anniey's gummies.
I'm not trying to cheat. I'm trying to make it easier for us to do this. It's going to be whatever. Fine. I won't change. Okay, this is gamma number two right now. Chat's up 15 subs. We are betting 50 gifted subs that there are more bees than bugs or butterflies. My bet is there's more butterflies than bugs or bees. If there's more bugs than bees or butterflies, then we move to a new pack. Let's do this. Fresh pack.
I'm putting all of it into my hand.
Occasionally, my hand will probably move off camera, and I promise I'm not trying to cheat. I know I will be accused of it anyways, but I am being an honorable bee gambler. Did I just swap it out right there in chat? Get a count. One bug.
This is a beetle thing. Ladybug. One bug. Okay, they're different colors.
They're different colors. The colors aren't consistent. This is another bug.
Two bugs. I'm picking randomly. Third bug. Dude, I should have swapped a bug, man. Okay, this is butterfly, right?
This is butterfly. This is butterfly.
There's no little ridges on the uh thorax or whatever the thing is. One butterfly, three bugs. This This is bee.
Okay, this is [ __ ] This is B. It's hard to tell. There's There's little ridges on it that I can see in person. Two bees, one butterfly, one bug. Dude, they're squished. What? What? I don't know what it is. What is it? That's not a bee. It doesn't look anything like a bee. What are you talking about? It's not anything. It's dead. It's a square.
This one. Look at this one. Look, it's supposed to Hold on. Of the three left, this is B. So, you do get one more B for sure. What's the score right now? It's 3B, three bug, one butterfly. I think these are butterflies. Wait. Okay. I was about to try to rig this and then I realized what they are. They're rabbits.
Like I it's definit like like definitely without question it's a rabbit. I don't know if you can see it. Here's his little head. God damn it. What the [ __ ] They replaced the butterflies with Okay, whatever. Fine. It's unfortunate.
It was three bees, three bugs, one butterfly, and two rabbits, which doesn't make any sense at all. This is why we gamble. Next gamble. What do we gamble on? Can we just search like YouTube live streams?
>> Look up Sloppy Joe's webcam for gambling.
>> Sloppy Joe's webcam. Okay. Sloppy Joe.
Sloopy Joe. Sloppy Joe's live stream.
What the? Bro, we got to bet on this.
Why would anybody do this? What would be the bet? Bet on how many cars pass by?
Will a bus appear? A yellow car. I would give you 10 to one odds. If I win 10 gifted subs, if you win 100, you get 2 minutes for a yellow car. Do you want to take that bet? That's an insane bet.
Deal. Yes. No. To be clear, you have 2 minutes for a yellow car to show up with 10 to1 odds. I'll happily take that. I don't know what kind of like city you guys live in where people are driving yellow cars.
Is anyone in Key West? If there's somebody who pulls up and they're clearly a chatter ready. This is a 10 to1 bet. Oh, I thought that was a bus for a sec. The shadow got so big. Dude, why would school buses be driving through here? I assume like a bar area.
This is where people are hanging out.
That doesn't count, by the That was a yellow shirt. Minute and a half. You guys are [ __ ] There's no way somebody would be able to get into their car, even if there's a viewer here.
Two, one.
>> Then for me, >> there are children's piano and dance recital live streamed all the time.
Let's scam on the winners. Or better yet, children's karate tournaments.
>> Can you do that? Okay, I think we advanced the bet. 25 subs that for 1 minute there are no yellow shirts visible. I'll give you 90 seconds. 25 gifted subs. 90 seconds. I'm making it better for you. I assume you still want to say yes because I just gave you better odds. 90 seconds. No yellow shirts. That includes cars. That includes inside. It just doesn't include this person right here. If that person walks out, that does not count. Starting now. Or sorry, 92, dude. Immediately.
Come on, man. That was 1 second in.
Double or nothing. I'll run it back.
Double or nothing. You know what? You wouldn't double or nothing that you cowards. You're going to take your winnings and run. Haven't you ever seen that meme about one more bet? You can make it big. Okay, I got the yes. Just barely double or nothing. Running it back. Yellow shirt guy still there. That person doesn't count. Ready? This for 25 more. Go. Yellow on left woman. What are you talking about? This This is like tie-dye. We said it has to be fully yellow. That's not That's a tie-dye shirt. That's not yellow. 45 seconds.
Come on. 22. That's the same guy. That's the same guy. It doesn't count. We already said that guy was in the bar.
That's not a fully yellow dress. Yellow in car. I do not believe you. Timer's done. I win. Go back in the vaude.
Yellow in car. What was the color of the car? Silver car. Are you color blind?
Where? What are you talking about? You literally watched it. You looked at it.
All right. Hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on. Now this that's tan. That is not yellow. Are you joking? Here, let's do a little comparison for you, chat.
So, there's one color. And now let's look at a guy who actually has yellow clothes on. Two of these are yellow. One of them is clearly not. That's not yellow. That's tan. You could make up whatever color you want due to window tint. Saying, "Oh, because of the window tint, it's actually this thing." Even though it's objectively not that color visually. I can just be like, "No, the window tint actually is what makes it look tan. It's actually a brown shirt."
Like, you could just say whatever you want. Use a color picker and find out the official closest named color. Here's the official RGB. Let's Let's pull this up. [ __ ] rest my case. That's the color. Here's what I would propose next.
We go to Doug Dug Doug Doug. So, this is stream history. Yeah. I will roll a random number between 1 and 30. So, we will do one of the most recent 30 VODs.
We will click into the VOD and we will go to a random spot in the VOD. And then we are looking at chat here. I think we bet on whether rigged or bald shows up first as a word in chat. I think it's rigged bald or cinema. What do you guys want to bet on? This is what you would like to be your champion. Oh, deface is a good one, too. Let's leave it at this.
I still think bald is more common than deface. Okay, you guys are doing rigged.
I'm taking bald. I'm using bald against you. Absolutely take bald. Who even says bald? Are you insane? Are did you wander into this stream randomly today? Why would anyone say bald? So, this is the point at which you're like shocked at the concept. Now, the question, how many subs you willing to wager on this?
You're betting rigged first. I'm betting bald. How many subs? 10, 20, 30, 40, 50.
I don't think we should go. [ __ ] I might I might be down for 50. I really do think I have the advantage here.
[ __ ] Like, this is my chance to catch up. I think that you're making a bad bet here. Cade says, "I've done an analysis of chat history, and bald is actually the most commonly said word in your chat with the exception of simple words like a or you. I don't know if you're serious or throwing me off. I'll do 30. I'm offering you 30. 30 for a bet. I'm going to hedge. Deal. No deal. I'm cowarding out. That might have been said to [ __ ] with me and it worked. Wait. No. No.
Hold on. I'm vetting a ball. No. No. I'm taking 50. Hold on. No. No. No. I read that wrong. I My brain is dumb. Let's do the thing right. 50 subs. Deal.
Get a deal. No deal. [ __ ] I'm so dumb.
Come on. Deal that. Don't be cowards. 50 subs. You guys have rigged. I have bald.
Oh, you cowardly cowardly chatters.
There we go. 51%.
>> Yes.
>> How do we know any of these people are >> Okay, what do you want? Show a sense of adventure. You live once. Okay, now we're doing 50. Okay, your bet is that rigged shows up before bald. We go to random number generator.
Ninth Vaude and I go and I hit one once we're in there. I'm not I'm going to ignore the edits. Those aren't va [ __ ] You guys would actually say rigged a lot in this one.
>> Do a bet if Geio guesses places us closer to sloppy Joe.
>> That's so dumb. We're doing playback speed at 0.5. Even if you go look ahead, don't spoil it for us. Don't be a coward.
>> Second.
>> It's still so fast. Jesus. All mill.
>> What are we doing here? What are we [ __ ] doing? Double or nothing. I offer double or nothing. Immediate.
Immediate. Double or nothing. Pax Historia was a [ __ ] roll. Double or nothing? Yes. No. I'm a coward. Same stream. No, no, no. Re-rolling streams.
Re-rolling streams. Definitely not same stream. You're for sure going to get rigged in the packs of story one cuz we were like playing versus each other, right? You cowards. We will destroy him in double or nothing. We've won plenty.
We don't need more. Well, to be clear, we are on bet like five out of 10. We do need to keep betting on things that you're not supposed to bet on. I'll give it 10 seconds. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 God you. Moving on. What else are we gambling on? We can always go back to sloppy joe's. All right. I really don't think there's going to be a yellow t-shirt this time.
>> Hey Doug, how about you weigh yourself, then go pee, then wear yourself again.
And we bet on the Pass.
>> That's a good one. Okay, we're betting on Pass. I don't really have a great way of showing the scale here. Oh god, here it is. It's funny that we suggested this cuz unironically this is like the heaviest I've ever weighed and I'm like not stoked about it. I'm trying to lose weight again. I somehow I got to like 211 which is the heaviest I've ever been by like a wide margin. The scale is 2125. Normally I try to be like 190. I'm like way heavier than I want to be. The bet is how much this goes down when I pee. Okay. Liz is the best one ever.
Okay, I'm going to go pee and let's say I can't wash my hands cuz that could that could unfairly influence it cuz there'd be there'd be water on my hands.
We can't do that. That'd be cheating.
So, it's got to be how much do you think it will go down by? Are we saying more or less than blank? Right. How much do you guys want to say? 1 lb half a pound.
25 lb I How much is in your weigh less?
Is it 0.1? I feel like there's a water's heavy. Am I the crazy one here? I feel like it might be like 1.5 lb. The average is about 666 lb. The average what? Pee. It sounds like.5 lb is maybe or like 6. I have to pee like pretty bad. I would say it's an 8 out of 10.
It's not I'm not like about to burst, but it's it's a you know I got to go to the bathroom pretty I haven't gone in 3 hours. I googled weight of average pee and got that. Sick. You're going to have some explaining to do like the next time literally anyone looks at your search history. What if you gain weight? You're you're not wrong. Okay. I will wash my hands. By the way, in my brain, I'm going to pee like a pound of water. I just feel like it doesn't matter whether it's.5 or 6. Are do you generally want to bet on heavier or lighter? We want heavier. Well, I'm not No, then I'm not going to accept that. Hold on. Are you Okay, let's say this. Are you going to go heavier or lighter? Whatever number we end up on, what side? I I understand.
It kind of depends what the number is, but in general, how are you feeling? Cuz that's how we can more easily come to a number that we're both happy with. Okay, you're going light. Okay, that's fine. I would take 0.9. Wait, hold on. I'm talking about the the size of the pee.
So, I'm saying the amount like the amount lost. Are we on the same page?
The amount of pee is.9 or less. I'll even give you.9. I drink a good amount of water. I drank 32 L of fluid in here.
Doug's weight drops by.9 lb or less. How much you want to bet? 25, 50, 75, 100?
You know what I'm going to do? I'm going to get on and off the scale and get an average.
It's hitting 2.212.1 repeatedly.
I did wash my hands.
That was quick. It wasn't that much to be honest. Oh, here we go.
2 lb of water. Is that normal? I feel that's not normal. What is wrong with you? That doesn't feel healthy. I might need to see a doctor. That was not even like a particularly large urination. I take the dub. I go up to 425 subs. You owe me 190. Maybe it's full of calcium and rocks. Okay. Double or nothing? No. Big pog. Final bet. Is there like a Japan live stream?
I think Sloppy Joe's is more hype, man.
There's not as much suspense cuz you see them coming down the entire street, right? We need to go back to our roots.
I think we go I think we hit Sloppy Joe's, man. Let's see if you can take it home. I think we do three bets. Three bets is your chance to catch up. There are a lot of orange shirts. If you want to run back yellow shirt, what what is the bet? 90 seconds. You're down by 190 subs. How many do you want to throw in?
I'll give you 2 minutes. You're You are like way down. 200. No, we're not doing 200 subs, coward. How about 100? 100 gifted. Yellow shirt. 100 gifted. 2 minutes. do 190 all in.
If I win it though, I'm ending the stream. I'm going to take the ball and go home and everybody's going to be spamming, "Oh, no or nothing, dog. Come on. Don't be a coward." I'm just going to humiliate. I will take my money.
Yellow shirt 100 gifted 2 minutes.
That's a good bet for you, right? That's a good bet. That's a good offer. You can do 190, but if Doug wins, he takes the ball and goes home. You have to ask yourself in your heart of hearts, are you really willing to just have the stream end? We do up to three bets.
I will not accuse Chad of being a coward today. I will countd down. 3 2 1 Time's up. Top left. No. Okay. No. No. Hold on.
Hold on. If they're already there. Okay, that is Y. If they're already there, it doesn't count. No. No. No. No. If it was already there before I started the bet, of course that doesn't count. In every previous one, we've waited. Was that guy standing there? You didn't say that.
That's what we've done for everything.
Obviously, I would not start the timer if there's a person wearing a yellow shirt on stream. He's new. There's no way.
No, he's been there. Look, look how long he's been there. He's been there for like 3 minutes. That's dumb. You know that's dumb. He was already there. I'll give you 15 more seconds as a bonus, which is stupid. Got to be majority yellow, by the way. If it's half and half like that, it doesn't count. I'm not going to be stingy with it, but it can't be like tie-dye.
[ __ ] Who wears something like this?
With all respect to this guy who goes into a public space, that's orange.
That's yellow. Look, I'm not going to I'm not going to argue that's yellow.
That or that's orange, right? That's clearly yellow. This it to me is orange.
It is tied. 425 to 425. I set up to three more bets. That's one of three.
I'll offer you. Let's do a straight 50.
Run it back. Straight 50. 90 seconds.
Deal or no deal. Let me pull it up. I'll run it back on yellow shirt. 90 seconds.
Deal. That's a That's a strong deal. Go.
90 seconds. No. No.
53. Is it Is that yellow? That is yellow, right? Yeah. You won twice. 475.
Are they texting and driving? Final bet.
2 minutes. Two yellow shirts. 100.
That's so I just I could get back in the red. I kind of If I do 50, that's $500 in gifted subs. Although, I guess I get half of it back. Final bet. 3 minutes.
Three yellow shirts. 100 gifted subs. 3 minutes. Go now. This person doesn't count. This person doesn't count.
Anybody else who enters, you need three total. Dude, I'm actually going to win.
I mean, I guess we haven't even hit a minute. I got to chill. Hold on. Is this yellow? That's No, it's not. It's mixed.
It's red. Still nothing.
[ __ ] That was yellow, right? I think that was yellow. 57 seconds. Come on. I don't see any. 13. 3 2 1. Dud.
That's two out of three. I honestly thought I was going to lose that. I There have been so many yellow shirts. I go up 100 to 525. End of the day, I end with 50 above Chad. And I got to say, well played. It was an honorable fight.
Jesus, take the wheel. Uh, all right.
The the tab is is done. You guys are good. Do a color blind. Okay. Okay. Hold on. Let's do it. Uh, okay. Color blind.
I'm not going to be what?
Oh, what? It says nine.
Okay. If I am not color blind, you guys have to apologize.
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