Weather forecasting involves assessing multiple risk factors including rainfall totals, soil saturation, and storm patterns to predict flooding potential. Meteorologists use risk levels (e.g., level 1-4 for flooding, level 1-5 for severe weather) to communicate danger levels to the public. Flash flooding risk increases when soils become saturated and heavy rain occurs in concentrated areas, while severe weather risks include damaging winds, hail, and lightning. Effective weather communication requires understanding both the timing and geographic distribution of weather threats.
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TEXAS FLOOD WATCH: Dangerous Storms & Heavy Rain Headed for Austin & San AntonioAdded:
[music] >> All right, good evening everybody. It is May 21st. I am chief forecaster David Alpher with an Impulse Weather Alert update. We have a severe and a flood risk expected for our region throughout the next couple of days. This will go from now through Monday evening. And of course, for the latest updates, you can keep it here for the latest, also on impulseweather.com.
We have a new update, a flood watch has been activated for a good chunk of South Central Texas. Milam and Mason counties are the only counties not in a flood watch this evening, but everywhere else across the Hill Country, the Austin, San Antonio metros, and the coastal plains are under flood watches this evening.
This will start Friday evening, excuse me, running until 7:00 p.m. on our Monday.
2 to 4 inches of rain is possible, isolated pockets near 6 inches.
Flash flooding risk for tonight, a level one out of four marginal risk for the entirety of South Central Texas. There's a possibility our flood threat could get upgraded for the Hill Country tonight to level two out of four. That possibility, I think, is there. As we go into tomorrow, our flood risk is diminished and will stay off toward our east. But as we get to Saturday, this is where we have a level two out of four slight risk for flooding for pretty much the entire region for some heavy rain once again for Saturday. As we get into Sunday, a level one out of four marginal risk for flooding. And you can kind of get the general idea the next several days.
There will be opportunities for storms, and some storms could produce some very heavy rain, maybe even some flooding at times. So, you kind of get the general idea here the next couple of days. Our flash flooding risk, this is going from now until Sunday at 9:00 p.m. Our model's predicting potentially up to 2 to 5 inches of rain across the Hill Country and even portions of Williamson County. So, it looks like a swath of heavy rain could be occurring for the Hill Country to Bell County potentially.
but of course the generalization of where the cluster of storms will like stall out and produce very heavy rain.
It could be further north, it could be right here, or it could be further south, but generally speaking on tap I think anywhere and everywhere across our area. I think we'll at least pick up another inch in some locations, but isolated areas will pick up 2 to 4 inches of rain as mentioned with isolated totals near 6 inches. On top of that tonight we have a severe weather threat, a level one out of five marginal risk proportions of Burnet Blanco Comal Bear County and points west for the entire Hill Country tonight with the risk of strong to severe storms. If any storms do get intensified, we could have the risk of some quarter size hail and damaging winds up to 60 mph and of course local flash flooding will be possible. So with most storms that we will see, it will mainly be rain, but some storms could produce some small hail. So most of it will probably be special weather statements from what we'll see this evening and going into tonight. So it'll be mainly from pea size hail to nickels, but if we do get a severe warning, it would be mainly for quarter size hail I believe and probably half dollar size. So again if any severe warning were to get issued for your area tonight, um it would be for quarter size hail to half dollar size hail, but most of the storms tonight will be generally sub severe and could produce some small hail from nickels, pennies, small marbles to pea size hail potentially. So going into tonight in Austin low of 67 tonight with thunder storms with flooding possible with a 70% chance of precipitation going into tomorrow. High of right around 90 in Austin, everywhere else staying in the 80s with mainly partly cloudy conditions for our Friday AM, but some isolated storms are possible kind of like how it was today with 30% of our coverage area seeing storms with winds at south at 5 to 10 mph. Next 4 days in the capital city we will continue to carry a storm chance in our forecast next several days across our area and it will contain a low end flood risk and even a low end severe risk next couple days, but Friday and the Saturday temperatures drop substantially to the 70s and 80s for highs on Saturday then upper 80s and not low 90s return Sunday and Monday for Austin across our area.
Of course, with weather that's changing all the time, you can keep it here on Impulse Weather's YouTube channel for latest updates and one way to do that is subscribing and turn on post notifications so you know when we go live so you get notified right away. And when we go live, it's us talking about the urgency of this weather pattern that we are in with a new weather alert coming your way. And of course, another way to get updates or keep up to date with our blog and forecast and cameras and check out our merch too, by the way.
It's on impulseweather.com.
We're streaming also on there as well.
So if any weather alerts break, a live stream will be posted on our website as well. But for now guys, you got to stay weather aware for the next several days through Monday evening. So again, during this Memorial Day weekend, unfortunately, we do have storm chances here in our area. But from the Impulse Weather Center, I'm Chief Forecaster David Alford. I hope everybody has a blessed Thursday and have a great Friday as well and we'll have further updates if necessary continuing going into the weekend, but I expect more live streams to happen next several days. So again, one way to get updates on when we go live is turning on them post notifications on here on YouTube.
>> [music]
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